United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004
The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
New Mexico was won by incumbent Republican President George W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeating Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. The Land of Enchantment is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate non-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, when Al Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which swung between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry), although Bush only won with a margin of less than 1% of the vote.
This was the last election during which New Mexico was seriously contested as a swing state. The Republican Party's collapsing support among Hispanics led to the state's being classified as a blue state, as it voted Democratic by double-digit margins in 2008 and 2012.
|Elections in New Mexico|
There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
- D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
- Associated Press: Toss Up
- CNN: Bush
- Cook Political Report: Toss Up
- Newsweek: Toss Up
- New York Times: Toss Up
- Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
- Research 2000: Lean Kerry
- Washington Post: Battleground
- Washington Times: Battleground
- Zogby International: Kerry
- Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.
Advertising and visits
Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times. Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.
Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, is very popular, the state, who voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in this state is hispanic, thus Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the hispanic vote because of his liberal position on illegal immigration.
|United States presidential election in NM, 2004|
|Party||Candidate||Running mate||Votes||Percentage||Electoral votes|
|Republican||George W. Bush||Richard Cheney||376,930||49.84%||5|
|Democratic||John Kerry||John Edwards||370,942||49.05%||0|
|Independent||Ralph Nader||Peter Camejo||4,053||0.54%||0|
|Libertarian||Michael Badnarik||Richard Campagna||2,382||0.31%||0|
|Green||David Cobb||Pat LaMarche||1,226||0.16%||0|
|Constitution||Michael Peroutka||Chuck Baldwin||771||0.10%||0|
|Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)||55%/68%|
By congressional district
Kerry won 2 of 3 congressional districts.
NM voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.
- Rod Adair
- Ruth Kelly
- Rick Lopez
- Lou Melvin
- Rodney Montoya
- http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]