United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016

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United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout 72.05% Increase

 
Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,981,473 1,769,443
Percentage 49.73% 44.41%

Virginia Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County and Independent City Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Logo used by Clinton's Virginia campaign

The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus The District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Virginia voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Virginia voters do not register by party.

The Democratic Party candidate, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York, carried Virginia with a 49.7% plurality in the popular vote against businessman Donald Trump of New York, who carried 44.4%, a victory margin of 5.3%. Clinton seemed to benefit from having Tim Kaine on the ticket. Whereas the national popular vote swung 1.9% Republican from the previous election, Virginia swung 1.37% Democratic.[1][2] This was also the first time since 1944 where Virginia was more Democratic than the national average.

Trump became the first Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to win the White House without carrying Virginia. The Old Dominion had been a traditionally Democratic-leaning state from the party's founding until 1952. Although Virginia was later considered a reliable Republican-leaning state from 1952 until 2008, it has not voted Republican in 12 years. This is due largely to migration into counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., which has tilted those densely populated areas towards the Democratic Party once more.

Virginia was the only state of the eleven former states that belonged to the Confederate States of America to vote Democratic in this election. This is a reversal from 1976, when it was the only state that had belonged to the CSA to vote Republican. This was the first time since 1996 that Virginia went for the losing candidate.

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Virginia as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[3]
  2. CNN: Leans Clinton[4]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Clinton[5]
  4. NBC: Leans Clinton[6]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[7]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[8]
  7. Fox News: Leans Clinton[9]
  8. ABC: Leans Clinton[10]

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,981,473 49.73% 13
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,769,443 44.41% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 118,274 2.97% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Mindy Finn 54,054 1.36% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 27,638 0.69% 0
Independent (Write-in)
-
-
33,749 0.85% 0
Totals 3,984,631 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 71.30%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections

By congressional district[edit]

Trump won 6 of 11 congressional districts.[11]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 53% 41% Rob Wittman
2nd 48% 45% Scott Rigell
Scott Taylor
3rd 32% 63% Robert C. Scott
4th 37% 58% Randy Forbes
Donald McEachin
5th 53% 42% Robert Hurt
Tom Garrett Jr.
6th 59% 35% Bob Goodlatte
7th 50% 44% Dave Brat
8th 21% 72% Don Beyer
9th 68% 27% Morgan Griffith
10th 42% 52% Barbara Comstock
11th 27% 66% Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that swung from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Counties and independent cities that swung from Republican to Democratic[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

The 108 delegates (95 pledged delegates and 13 super delegates) from Virginia to the Democratic National Convention were allocated in this way. Among the pledged delegates, 62 of them were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district. The 33 at-large delegates were then allocated based on the statewide popular vote.[12]

County results of the Virginia Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 504,741 64.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,370 35.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,930 0.50%
Uncommitted N/A
0
1
1
Total 785,041 100% 95 14 109
Source: The Green Papers, Virginia Department of Elections

Republican primary[edit]

The 49 delegates from Virginia to the Republican National Convention were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote.[13]

Virginia Republican primary, 2016

← 2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020 →

  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state New York Florida Texas
Delegate count 17 16 8
Popular vote 356,840 327,918 171,150
Percentage 34.80% 31.98% 16.69%

  Governor John Kasich.jpg Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction.jpg
Candidate John Kasich Ben Carson
Home state Ohio Maryland
Delegate count 5 3
Popular vote 97,784 60,228
Percentage 9.54% 5.87%

Virginia Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Virginia results by county
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
Virginia Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
America Symbol.svg Donald Trump 356,840 34.80% 17 0 17
Marco Rubio 327,918 31.98% 16 0 16
Ted Cruz 171,150 16.69% 8 0 8
John Kasich 97,784 9.54% 5 0 5
Ben Carson 60,228 5.87% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,645 0.36% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,917 0.28% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,458 0.14% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,102 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 914 0.09% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 653 0.06% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 444 0.04% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 399 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,025,452 100.00% 49 0 49
Source: The Green Papers

Libertarian nomination[edit]

The 2016 Libertarian Party presidential ticket was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld for vice president. They earned those nominations at the Libertarian Party 2016 National Convention on Memorial Day weekend.[14]

Green primary[edit]

The Virginia Green Party held its primary from March 20 through April 3. Party members were able to vote online through an email ballot or through the mail.[15] On April 13, it was announced that Jill Stein had won with 76% of the vote. The state's four delegates were apportioned at the May 28 state meeting.[16]

Virginia Primary, April 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein 35 76% 3
Kent Mesplay 3 6% 1
William Kreml 2 4.1% -
Darryl Cherney 2 3.8% -
Sedinam Curry 1 1.7% -
Write-ins 3 8.4% -
Total 46 100.00% 4

Polling[edit]

State voting history[edit]

Virginia joined the Union in June 1788 and has participated in all elections from 1789 onwards, except 1864 and 1868 (due to its secession from the US due to the American Civil War). Since 1900, Virginia voted Democratic 54.17 percent of the time and Republican 45.83 percent of the time. From 1968 to 2004, Virginia voted for the Republican Party candidate. However, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state voted for the Democratic Party. The same trend continued in the 2016 presidential elections.[17]

Clinton had several advantages in Virginia. The first was due in part to her landslide win in the Democratic primary against Senator Bernie Sanders. The second was Virginia has a significant number of African American voters, many of whom backed Clinton in the primary and both of President Barack Obama's wins in the state. The third was Clinton's pick of the state's own US Senator, Tim Kaine, as her Vice Presidential running mate.[original research?]

While polls throughout the campaign showed Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by varying margins in Virginia, it was announced on October 13 that the Trump campaign was pulling its resources out of the state, likely ceding to Clinton what was perceived to be a critical battleground state. According to the Trump campaign, the reason for pulling out of Virginia was to compete in more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which were states he won.[18]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  2. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=swg&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  3. ^ "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push" – via LA Times. 
  4. ^ Director, David Chalian, CNN Political. "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". 
  5. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". 
  6. ^ "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". 
  7. ^ "ElectoralVote". 
  8. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". 
  9. ^ "Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". 7 November 2016. 
  10. ^ News, A. B. C. (8 November 2016). "The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States". 
  11. ^ https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
  12. ^ "Virginia Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-23. 
  13. ^ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-23. 
  14. ^ "Libertarian Party Nominates Gov Gary Johnson Gov Bill Weld". 2016-05-30. Retrieved 2016-09-04. 
  15. ^ "GPVA Presidential Preference Primary 2016". Green Party of Virginia. 2016-03-12. Retrieved 2016-03-12. 
  16. ^ "GREEN PARTY OF VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". Green Party of Virginia. 2016-04-13. Retrieved 2016-04-13. 
  17. ^ "Virginia Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates". 13 October 2016. 
  18. ^ "Trump's campaign is giving up on Virginia". 

External links[edit]