User:Kahlores/sandbox/Wales
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Seat projections
[edit]Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client(s)/Publisher(s) | Sample size |
Lab | Plaid Cymru |
Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | AWAP | Brexit Party |
Other | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct-4 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ? | 1,136 | 18 | 15 | 18 | – | 2 | – | – | 7 | – | Tie |
| 10-14 Oct 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,032 | 18 | 13 | 14 | – | 6 | – | – | 9 | – | 13 short |
| 23–26 July 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,071 | 17 | 15 | 11 | – | 7 | – | – | 10 | – | 14 short |
| 16–20 May 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,009 | 20 | 13 | 7 | – | 2 | 5 | – | 13 | – | 11 short |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | 8 short |
| 7–23 Feb 2019 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| 19–22 Feb 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 8 short |
| 7–14 Dec 2018 | Sky Data | Cardiff University | 1,014 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | 2 | – | – | 2 short |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[1][2] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Dec 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,024 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| 30 Oct–2 Nov 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[3] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[4] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[5] | |||||||||||||
| 28 Jun–2 Jul 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,015 | 28 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| 8–25 Feb 2018 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,001 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[6] | |||||||||||||
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,016 | 30 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[7] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,011 | 31 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,029 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 10 short |
| 3–6 Jan 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,034 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 9 short |
| 18–21 Sep 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,001 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 5 short |
| 30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,010 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| 30 May–2 Jun 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,017 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 4 short |
| 5 May 2016 | 2016 election | – | 29 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short | |
References
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Drakeford2was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
Pricewas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
Davieswas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
Bennettwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
Alynwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
Doddswas invoked but never defined (see the help page).