User talk:William M. Connolley

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There is no Cabal
Fancy a scull? Bridge-to-bridge: 12:23; 12:28; headcourse 13:25.
Thomas Hobbes (portrait).jpg
To speak to another with consideration, to appear before him with decency and humility, is to honour him; as signs of fear to offend. To speak to him rashly, to do anything before him obscenely, slovenly, impudently is to dishonour. Leviathan, X.

  • Proverb: if you have nothing new to say, don't say it.
  • Thought for the day: paulgraham.com/discover
  • There's no light the foolish can see better by [1]

I "archive" (i.e. delete old stuff) quite aggressively (it makes up for my untidiness in real life). If you need to pull something back from the history, please do. Once.


My ContribsBlocksProtectsDeletionsBlock logCount watchersEdit countWikiBlame

I'm Number 10

ERA40 Juli 1979, omega at 500 hPa[edit]

Dear Dr. Connolley,

with interest I have studied this figure.

Omega-500-july-era40-1979.png
Omega-500-july-era40-1979.png

I wonder why there is such a strong down-draft over the eastern Mediterranean. Is it a special feature of the large Indian monsoon anticyclone and if so why is it downwelling right there? Thank you in advance for any help on this. Kind regards, Hella Riede 18:33, 25 April 2012 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by 192.67.218.50 (talk)

Thermal underwear[edit]

Blast from the past[edit]

Not to creep you out, but I was looking through old RfAs and I found this, from your second, and succesful, RfA. To the question of: How do you see Wikipedia in 2010 ?

OK, for what its worth, here is the rest: I see wikipedia continuing its growth and influence. The problems of scaling will continue: how to smoothly adapt current practices to a larger community. At the moment this appears to be working mostly OK. Problems exist with the gap between arbcomm level and admin level: I expect this to have to be bridged/changed someway well before 2010. I very much hope more experts - from my area of interests, particularly scientists - will contribute: at the moment all too few do. To make this work, we will have to find some way to welcome and encourage them and their contributions without damaging the wiki ethos. This isn't working terribly well at the moment. I predict that wiki will still be a benevolent dictatorship in 2010 - the problems of transition to full user sovereignty are not worth solving at this stage. William M. Connolley 20:36, 8 January 2006 (UTC).

Thought you'd be amused. Shadowjams (talk) 07:02, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

Hmm yes. "Prediction is hard, especially of the future" as they say William M. Connolley (talk) 08:25, 12 January 2010 (UTC)
Ha. So they say. I'm really good at the past prediction part though. Shadowjams (talk) 08:49, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

More thermals[edit]

Service award update[edit]

Editor - lapis philosophorum star.jpg
Hello, William M. Connolley! The requirements for the service awards have been updated, and you may no longer be eligible for the award you currently display. Don't worry! Since you have already earned your award, you are free to keep displaying it. However, you may also wish to update to the current system.

Sorry for any inconvenience. — the Man in Question (in question) 10:21, 14 January 2010 (UTC)

Argh, I hate it when these things change :-( Oh well, I'll see if the new one looks any prettier than the old :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 12:59, 14 January 2010 (UTC)

Dynamic topography[edit]

To William and his talk page stalkers:

Would you (ambiguously singular or plural) like to expand the portion of "Dynamic topography" that is about the oceans?

I am planning on doing some expansion of the solid-Earth-geophysics portion of that article (which currently covers both the dynamically-supported ocean elevations and topography due to motion of material in the mantle), but I think it would be a disservice to continue to ignore the ocean part. Ideally, we would have two separate standalone articles.

Awickert (talk) 17:26, 8 May 2010 (UTC)

Good point. How analogous are they? I never got through reading Gill, so maybe now is my chance :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 18:29, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
Well, I don't know anything about it in the oceans; in the Earth it is due to motion in the mantle that creates normal tractions on interfaces such as the surface, the upper/lower mantle discontinuity, the core-mantle boundary, etc. Since it is supposed to be about the motion of seawater, I can imagine how the physics could be identical, but I can't say for sure and about to head out the door: off to see a friend perform in Guettarda's favorite musical, Awickert (talk) 18:51, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
Careful. That is pretty clear evidence of a Cabal, or possibly a Cadre William M. Connolley (talk) 19:22, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
Cadre, I think. In our obligatory red shirts. Guettarda (talk) 21:38, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
I'm thinking about "Gang of N." It has a nice math/science ring to it, and evokes the Gang of Four. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:25, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
While "Gang of N" has a certain ring to it (the definitions are so amorphous, no one can agree how many there are), I think "Gang of i" might be more appropriate. Guettarda (talk) 03:43, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
I was totally baffled by "Guettarda's favourite musical"...until I remembered that conversation. It was especially puzzling since I've never seen it, have no idea what it's actually about, and don't even know what comes after the second "Oklahoma!" Guettarda (talk) 21:37, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
It's a good one - you should see it. Back to the topic: if it turns out that the underlying physics are the same, but just expressed in different media, I bet we could leave it at one article. If they are fundamentally different, then let's split. Awickert (talk) 01:21, 9 May 2010 (UTC)

WP:ARBCC[edit]

[5]

Exoplanets and the Intermediate General Circulation Model[edit]

Steven Vogt talks about a scientist who modeled the atmospheric circulation of a tidally locked exoplanet like Gliese 581 g in its habitable zone.[24] I'm not sure which paper Vogt is referring to here. Would you be able to add a discussion about this to the Gliese 581 g article? No hurry on this. It's in the video if you get a chance to watch it (Event begins sometime around 29:27). Viriditas (talk) 13:07, 30 September 2010 (UTC)

They have really irritating video... can't they just put it on youtube :-( William M. Connolley (talk) 13:44, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
Interesting how I asked you this question right as it became an issue. An editor just added that the tidally locked sides would be "blazing hot in the light side to freezing cold in the dark side", however I removed this because Vogt seems to refer to the climate models several times that contradict this statement. Viriditas (talk) 13:47, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
And now, I've restored it after finding the source. Viriditas (talk) 14:01, 30 September 2010 (UTC)

I've evaded the issue for the moment but put a comment about something else on the talk page. Thanks. Meanwhile, if you look at the PR puff [http://news.ucsc.edu/2010/09/planet.html - notice in the pic the sun is orange/red, as presumably it should be, but mysteriously the light reflected off the clouds has become white William M. Connolley (talk) 14:19, 30 September 2010 (UTC)

I finally found the guy and his work. His name is James Kasting. Have you heard of him?Viriditas (talk) 22:16, 2 October 2010 (UTC)
Nope. But I have found and now read Joshi et al. 1997 which looks to be the main source for the atmospheres stuff. Its quite interesting. I'll summarise it here, prior to dumping it somewhere: put it in User:William M. Connolley/Atmospheric general circulation on tidally locked planets <snipped to sub page>

William M. Connolley (talk) 22:55, 2 October 2010 (UTC)

Interesting. But isn't deposition of CO2 exothermic and thus would release heat into the atmosphere on the cold side so it would get warmer? — Coren (talk) 16:14, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
Nevermind, obviously the GHE would be reduced by the loss and that would overwhelm the small amount of heat gained from deposition. — Coren (talk) 16:16, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
Yes, the heat released is small, and is soon lost. Its vaguely similar to the way that waste heat from fossil fuel combustion is far less important than the CO2 released William M. Connolley (talk) 14:46, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

Gurk: I've just noticed that Vogt et al. say M stars emit a large amount of their radiation in the infrared. As a result, since the greenhouse effect works by absorbing infrared radiation, the surface temperatures would be higher than predicted by such simple calculations. [25] This is very badly broken. Oops William M. Connolley (talk) 17:42, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

Feedback requested[edit]

Sorry to hear you are currently blocked, but could I get your professional opinion on this discussion? Thanks in advance. Viriditas (talk) 04:10, 30 December 2010 (UTC)

Just looking. At first sight the edits are entirely reasonable. It seems plausible that L is R. T. Pierrehumbert - it is probably worth asking him to confirm that he asserts that (he just about has, but not quite explicitly). In which case I think the COI claims aren't very helpful: it isn't as if he is promoting some pet theory, and he would be a very valuable contributor to have editing wiki so best to be nice to him. Again, at first sight, the major difference between this and previous work appears to be using an ocean rather than a land-only planet; I don't know which is more likely. L suggests on talk that really this stuff isn't about Gleis but is common to all tidally locked planets; I started some wurbling in that direction at User:William M. Connolley/Atmospheric general circulation on tidally locked planets but then got distracted William M. Connolley (talk) 16:59, 30 December 2010 (UTC)

Information is hard to erase[edit]

[26] Count Iblis (talk) 00:21, 4 January 2011 (UTC)

FWIW as the the person who had the largest number of entries on your deleted page, I have created a page containing the log of page diffs here. I have an impaired memory and it is helpful for me to have these kind of aide memoires. If you wish to extend that list of diff logs to include any other contributions listed by author without disparaging edit summaries or commentary you are entirely free to do so. But you are also free to ignore it or ask me to delete it. For my part of the favour please do and try harder; I can assure you, you have barely scratched the surface of my stupidity. --BozMo talk 08:14, 4 January 2011 (UTC)
Thanks to you both. BozMo, I'm baffled: you've just willfully recreated a deleted page. How do you justify doing that? Since admins have no special rights (other than their tools) it is no more lgal for you to have that page than for me. Which implies that either you have sinned, or that I am free to copy it back into my user space William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 4 January 2011 (UTC)
For what its worth I think context is everything. The arguments about the deletion of the page turned considerably around the PAs in the edit history and inference from how the entries came about. I did not recreate and move the page (or could have followed the convention of returning the page content to its owner) but thoughtfully created a page which preserves some of the content. On top of which for my part of the favour (the diffs on edits of mine) I am interested in whether the community is really going to declare me to be attacking myself. If my list gets deleted my next attempt would be to create a page with "things people say" as a title and include only my own diffs. To be honest it is a sad day for Wikipedia when an opinion on a diff is construed as a PA. The whole point is that you are allowed to dislike an edit, but not dislike the editor. --BozMo talk 12:41, 4 January 2011 (UTC)
Ah well. If your page survives deletion and/or you aren't bothered by time-wasters for a day or two, then I'll just re-create my page starting from yours William M. Connolley (talk) 14:10, 4 January 2011 (UTC)

PES[edit]

You and your talk page watchers are invited to look at User:Atmoz/photoemission spectroscopy and see if there is anything worth merging into Photoemission spectroscopy. I'll likely get around to it eventually, but the folk that go around nominating userpages for MfDs will likely find if before then. Thanks. -Atmoz (talk) 17:54, 12 January 2011 (UTC)

Already watching it :-). You're more likely to get some use out of one of the watchers than me, though William M. Connolley (talk) 09:36, 16 January 2011 (UTC)

Record your cleanup[edit]

Hello. Could you please record your work progress at the newly created Wikipedia:Requests for comment/Jagged 85/Top edits and, if you haven't done so yet, at Wikipedia talk:Requests for comment/Jagged 85/Cleanup#Cleanup lists. The first link lists the most frequently articles edited by Jagged 85 by number of edits, the latter by total number of bytes added by him. As you know, keeping track of the cleanup effort is paramount to avoid double work. Thanks and regards Gun Powder Ma (talk) 01:36, 16 April 2011 (UTC)

Jagged 85 stuff[edit]

I missed the whole business with this, seems I was lucky. From what I gather from Tkuvho accusations being hurled toward me, he was abusing references? Anyways I thought you could take a look at Differential (infinitesimal) in its history section, Jagged 85 added some stuff that looks questionable to me and I thought you might know for sure at a glance. Thenub314 (talk) 06:26, 29 May 2011 (UTC)

The Jagged85 stuff rumbles on; there is no need for you to miss it all (though I'd run screaming if I were you). I'll look at D(i) William M. Connolley (talk) 08:45, 29 May 2011 (UTC)
Ah, instantly recognisable. I could dig out the long tedious discussion we had over that, if you really want to see it William M. Connolley (talk) 08:52, 29 May 2011 (UTC)

|}

WP:Scientific point of view[edit]

I've started to rewrite this, made an essay out of it and changed the argument. I argue that NPOV requires one to stick to SPOV on science articles, so sticking to SPOV on such articles is mandatory. If you have time, you can help expand it and perhaps it can later be proposed as a new policy. Count Iblis (talk) 03:29, 17 June 2011 (UTC)

Circumcision[edit]

At the moment, i am one of at least 8 editors who have complained about the current state of the circumcision article which was recently changed to sound much more pro-circumcision. There are a group of established editors who look like they are tag-teaming (Jakew, Jayjg, User:Avraham and User:Jmh649) supporting this pro-circumcision stance. Jakew, Avi and Jayjg have been edit-warring on this article with their pro-circumcision stance since at least 2007/2008. Do you have any opinions on this matter? Do you think an RfC or arbitration is appropriate? Thanks for reading. Pass a Method talk 10:56, 2 July 2011 (UTC)

I would give up, you might as well persuade Conservapedia to take a balanced view on Global Warming. One editor in particular has owned that article for about six years and is a long term persistent pro-circumcision lobbyist, with occasional support. Even if you manage to get any kind of balance on the article, which would be impressive, you will find it erode into being pro cutting again over time. The resident editors will put far more time and effort into findly sources which support them etc than you will ever manage to, they are expert in Wikilaw too. You will encounter similar problems on other "optional surgery" kind of topics including cosmetic plastic surgery. Try to get a Germaine Greer perspective into Breast implant if you feel like a challenge. If you take it to the wider community the very strong USA bias toward pointless surgical intervention (financial incentive and knowledge converge) means you can never get consensus because there are always a few "looks ok to me" fruitcakes on the boards. Take it off your watchlist and concentrate on parts of Wikipedia where the improvement from effort is higher. (Circumcision is unusual in that generally the pro-surgery bias comes from practitioners with obvious financial incentives; with circumcisions the motivation of the resident team is less financial). --BozMo talk 15:27, 2 July 2011 (UTC)
The lobby seems to advocate a bit more agressive pro-circumcision wording over the past month. Probably has something to do with the California vote to ban circumcision this year. Pass a Method talk 15:59, 2 July 2011 (UTC)
Just pretend to yourself it is not part of Wikipedia but is a highly selection pro Circumcision lobby page. Then you won't lose sleep. --BozMo talk 05:42, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

Query[edit]

Not meaning to offend, but... are you nuts? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:52, 30 September 2011 (UTC)

I, naturally, agree with SBHB. -Nathan Johnson (talk) 21:11, 3 October 2011 (UTC)
I was meaning to say: Boris, thanks for your comment. But do please amplify it, as to the substance. Nathan you too. As for madness: at least I don't run in your state :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 21:19, 3 October 2011 (UTC)
Do you enjoy dressing up in antlers and going for a walk in the woods during deer hunting season? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:43, 4 October 2011 (UTC)
We don't do that stuff in the Fens. Otter hunting, perhaps. Or mink? William M. Connolley (talk) 07:56, 4 October 2011 (UTC)

Barnstar of diligence[edit]

Barnstar of Diligence.png The Barnstar of Diligence
You are awarded this Barnstar for diligent protection of the rules of Wikipedia. Gantuya eng (talk) 04:13, 2 October 2011 (UTC)
Thank you William M. Connolley (talk) 07:54, 4 October 2011 (UTC)

Clarifications[edit]

I'm sorry if I'm unclear--I'm not referring to arbitration cases but instances--but at this point it's all semantics. You aren't willing to accept responsibility for your actions, and so I don't support letting you off the leash you forged. Der Wohltemperierte Fuchs(talk) 15:42, 11 October 2011 (UTC)

Sorry, won't do. You said "confirmation by WMC of the validity of all the complaints from previous cases". "cases" clearly means arbitration cases - it can't mean anything else. If you now wish to switch your wording to "instances" then you'll have to say what you mean by that. I've asked you which "cases" you mean, and I think you've evaded the issue. It looks to me like you simply made an error, but you're not prepared to correct yourself - hardly an inspiring example, indeed rather ironic, no? William M. Connolley (talk) 15:53, 11 October 2011 (UTC)
(ps: for anyone else wondering, the other half of this conversation is [27]. Perhaps I need to bold the "if I've left a message on your talk page, I'm watching it, so please reply there" in my edit notice William M. Connolley (talk) 15:57, 11 October 2011 (UTC)
You aren't willing to accept responsibility for your actions - you are an impatient sort. I haven't answered you yet - I'm still trying to work out what you're talking about William M. Connolley (talk) 16:10, 11 October 2011 (UTC)

The actual diffs showing alleged problematic behavior by William are mostly similar to this incident today. ArbCom was in denial about the underlying problem, they totally ignored the fact that the probation system that was implemented before the ArbCom case started was a total failure (indeed, if it had worked, there wouldn't have been an ArbCom case).

ArbCom managed to devote a whole paragraph on the most irrelevant incident you can think of, William inserting comments on postings on his talk page, see here. None of the other issues gets so much coverage. Since it was eventually decided that William was allowed to do this, this was a non-issue anyway, but it is of course a totally irrelevant issue as far as editing in the CC area is concerned. Count Iblis (talk) 23:41, 11 October 2011 (UTC)

I thought William was crazy for wanting to be unbanned, and told him so. In the unlikely event his appeal is granted he'll have flocks of admins, partisans, and partisan admins circling to look for the tiniest misstep. (Cooler heads than mine agree on at least this point.) Someone will haul him before AE for not saying "please" is an edit summary or similar nonsense and he'll get blocked, which will justify Arbcom's locking him back up and throwing away the key. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:39, 12 October 2011 (UTC)
But to the point: do either of you know what DWF actually means by his talk of cases? Or, perhaps, what exactly is his confusion? William M. Connolley (talk) 08:23, 12 October 2011 (UTC)
Let's do some mindreading. He wasn't an Arbitrator during the original case. Then let's look again at the final decision and see what someone who spends 20 seconds to read the findings about you would note. He would note the headlines, the links, because they have a blue color standing out from the main text, and phrases indicating bad behavior. The first headline is "William M. Connolley previously sanctioned and desysopped", the links refer to previous cases and the ominous words in the text that he would have noted in relation to these cases are "misused admin tools", "admonished", "restricted".
The headline of the next section is "William M. Connolley has been uncivil and antagonistic", the text of the section doesn't contain much notable facts (the links are all numbers). So that section would make a lesser impact. And the last section about BLP edits probably won't make much of an impact at all. The headline "William M. Connolley's edits to biographies of living persons" isn't a negative statement, the text doesn't contain any links at all, and no alarming words like "disruptive" etc., phrases like "not..... appropriately neutral", don't sound very alarming.
Clearly, of all these things that one would note in 20 seconds, the first section about previous cases stands out. Count Iblis (talk) 17:27, 12 October 2011 (UTC)
DWF, as he explained, almost certainly meant "instances" when he said "cases." Please WP:AGF.
case 1 n.1. An instance of something; an occurrence; an example: a case of mistaken identity.
It is reasonable that you, also in good faith, had the arbitration cases foremost in mind, and therefore interpreted his use of "case" in the legal instead of common sense. Instead of arguing about this, why don't you just accept his explanation? The fact that you are making a mountain of this molehill does not bode well for your re-entry into editing on controversial pages. Yopienso (talk) 22:54, 13 October 2011 (UTC)
William won't be allowed to edit BLP pages, so he'll be kept away from anything that is controversial about the CC area here on Wikipedia. The Wiki policies are a good enough barrier to keep the real world public controversy about the science of global warming out of the science articles, in case of the BLP articles this is not the case. Count Iblis (talk) 23:35, 13 October 2011 (UTC)

I'm generally optimistic, and Boris generally pessimistic, and up to now he has won hands down. But we'll see William M. Connolley (talk) 11:34, 17 October 2011 (UTC)

NLP[edit]

Would you be prepared to have another look at the NLP article? Encyclotadd still doesn't get the principle of OR and is now in breech of 3rr. I could just make a 3rr report, but I am (for the umpteenth time) being accused of a COI and Offtoriorob has jumped in as well (any area of wikipedia where I am involved in any controversy he arrives). With Chuckfreyconsultant permanently banned after taking umbrage over NLP issues I think this needs a neutral perspective. --Snowded TALK 21:48, 11 November 2011 (UTC)

I was trying to avoid the edit war there, oh dear William M. Connolley (talk) 21:53, 11 November 2011 (UTC)

Wikipedia:WikiProject Dispute Resolution[edit]

You may be interested in this. Peter jackson (talk) 10:55, 25 November 2011 (UTC)

Polar see-saw[edit]

Here's something that probably should be deleted. or maybe turned into a redirect to Antarctic Cooling Controversy. I haven't been around enough lately to remember how to do it. Apologies for just dumping this on you, but know you get it taken care of. Sagredo⊙☿♀♁♂♃♄ 19:19, 12 February 2012 (UTC)

Thanks. It is a valid article; it shouldn't be merged into ACC. I've hacked it a bit and removed some of the nonsense William M. Connolley (talk) 22:14, 12 February 2012 (UTC)

Dispute resolution survey[edit]

Peace dove.svg

Dispute Resolution – Survey Invite


Hello William M. Connolley. I am currently conducting a study on the dispute resolution processes on the English Wikipedia, in the hope that the results will help improve these processes in the future. Whether you have used dispute resolution a little or a lot, now we need to know about your experience. The survey takes around five minutes, and the information you provide will not be shared with third parties other than to assist in analyzing the results of the survey. No personally identifiable information will be released.

Please click HERE to participate.
Many thanks in advance for your comments and thoughts.


You are receiving this invitation because you have had some activity in dispute resolution over the past year. For more information, please see the associated research page. Steven Zhang DR goes to Wikimania! 11:20, 5 April 2012 (UTC)

Economics of global warming[edit]

I've recently glanced at a few sections of Economics of global warming and frankly, I'm appalled. If it was my choice, I'd opt for blowing it up and starting from scratch, but it isn't my call. That leaves clean-up as an option, but frankly, I'd find cleanup of the Augean stables easier.

Any interest in pitching in?--SPhilbrick(Talk) 21:06, 23 April 2012 (UTC)

Somehow I'd avoided having that on my watchlist. Certainly the intro reads very oddly. I've only skimmed the rest; I'm going to be busy for a week or so, but after that I'm happy to look more or help in any rework William M. Connolley (talk) 22:56, 23 April 2012 (UTC)
Of course, there's no rush, and I have some real-life issues that will keep me occupied a fair bit. I don't think warming issues per se are the main problems. I intend to concentrate on some of the finance issues such as the jumbled discussion of risk, and the odd insertion of portfolio theory. However, when it comes to the poor handling of the Kaya identity, I trust you are more familiar than I with the proper presentation.--SPhilbrick(Talk) 00:12, 24 April 2012 (UTC)

Notability for websites[edit]

So whilst I was celebrating one of our websites winning the BBC One World "New Media Award" http://oneworldmedia.org.uk/awards/winners (sponsored by Google, and presented by Jon Snow, no less) I was wondering it this was enough to make it notable and hence worth its own article on Wikipedia. I am hopelessly conflicted (since I did the concept design) but perhaps you or a watcher might take have a quick think? Despite the award I guess verifiable content for the article if you exclude http://www.our-africa.org/about-this-site might be tricky to come by (there is quite a bit of material published as a Plone case study somewhere I think. --BozMo talk 18:49, 9 May 2012 (UTC)

Congrats for the award! Great work, too! --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:03, 9 May 2012 (UTC)
My congratulations, too. But I have been, and will be, busy in the real world William M. Connolley (talk) 21:05, 14 May 2012 (UTC)

Treasure on Wikipedia[edit]

Not seen this from the history of Caius before "He insisted that the college admit no scholar who “is deformed, dumb, blind, lame, maimed, mutilated, a Welshman, or suffering from any grave or contagious illness, or an invalid, that is sick in a serious measure”. Just going through my contact list for some Welsh people to send it to. --BozMo talk 12:48, 24 May 2012 (UTC)

That might be why they're fast William M. Connolley (talk) 14:00, 24 May 2012 (UTC)
Presumably contagion and Welsh are the only prohibitions which are still legally possible (and Welsh would be illegal too if it were a nationality). --BozMo talk 19:42, 24 May 2012 (UTC)

Uptick in violent crime[edit]

Are you aware that a small increase in violent crime in the U.S. is being attributed to climate change leading to an early spring and to increased methamphetamine production due to the destruction of outdoor marijuana crops as a result of drought? According to a recent news story, "56 percent of the United States was in drought conditions as of May 8, almost twice the area compared to last year at this time, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor."[28] Viriditas (talk) 08:41, 31 May 2012 (UTC)

I haven't seen the violent crime bit, though the Fight Entropy blog has some useful stuff, e.g. http://www.fight-entropy.com/2012/04/temperature-and-generally-antisocial.html and the more important stuff about climate and conflict, http://www.fight-entropy.com/2012/03/carefully-interpreting-climate-conflict_30.html
I don't find the stuff from Lester Brown in your link convincing, though. "Our entire agricultural system is geared to the stable climate conditions we've enjoyed for the last few thousand years. And that's changing," is dubious - there have been some large changes over those 2kyr. And the land-grab stuff is similarly dodgy William M. Connolley (talk) 11:19, 31 May 2012 (UTC)
Thanks for the links. What do you make of the current drought conditions in the United States and Mexico? Are they unusual? Viriditas (talk) 11:47, 31 May 2012 (UTC)
Sorry for the delay replying. As you might be able to guess, this is because I don't have a good answer to give. They are clearly unusual in the context of the recent few decades past, but quite possibly not in the context of the longer term. More interesting still is whether they will continue. I have no answer to that, either William M. Connolley (talk) 21:34, 4 June 2012 (UTC)
Hot off the press. Is it time to start worrying about the clathrate gun hypothesis? Viriditas (talk) 22:32, 7 June 2012 (UTC)
I see your link and raise you http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/03/17/arctic-methane-emergency-group/ ;-) But as for warmth: well, its June here, and cold, and its been raining for weeks. By which I mean, for every "its warm" story you'll find another "its cold" story. So that isn't the way to do it: the way to do it is to look at global temperatures over the longer term, or sea ice, or whatever. And not worry too much that it is unexciting William M. Connolley (talk) 07:52, 8 June 2012 (UTC)
I don't know, the weather in North America for the last year or so has been very strange. BTW, in case you missed this, enjoy. Viriditas (talk) 12:05, 8 June 2012 (UTC)
Isn't "cold and rainy" the traditional weather of Britain? If you insist on an island, but don't like the weather, move to Crete! --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:40, 8 June 2012 (UTC)
Thanks for the link, I hadn't seen it. You might like this :-). Weather: well, there are limits. And its Mays next week, so it had better get better William M. Connolley (talk) 21:22, 9 June 2012 (UTC)
Thanks. Check out Curiousity's Seven Minutes of Terror if you haven't already seen it. Great stuff. Too bad NASA wasn't making these types of videos ten years ago. Viriditas (talk) 14:21, 24 June 2012 (UTC)

Indian mathematics[edit]

Hello, I am a user very active in the Good Article nominating system. I often look and scout for articles that could pass as GAs. I was sifting through WikiProject Mathematics, and found this article. You seem to be the editor who has has the most recent edits done, and I was wondering, do think the article is ready to go under a GA review. If so, Great! If not, what could be done to improve it. I am really exuberant when an article I nominate becomes a GA, and would like for this one to. Please, help this article become a GA. Thanks mate! Oakley77 (talk) 18:45, 3 June 2012 (UTC)

I think all I've done there is tone things down a bit. But there is far more to be done. It looks to me to have problems, semi-nationalistic ones, in over-promoting the role of IM and failing to set it in its correct place. For example that Fields of Indian mathematics section appears to assert that they invented formal grammar. Or it did, until I just removed it. In short, I wouldn't trust it at all William M. Connolley (talk) 21:27, 4 June 2012 (UTC)

(",)[edit]

Porn[edit]

(Change of subject) Did you clear that picture up there with Larry Sanger? Apparently he has teamed up with Fox News to protect us... --Guy Macon (talk) 11:34, 25 June 2012 (UTC)

I discussed this on a blog a little while ago, http://ocham.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/what-should-we-do-about-wikipedias-porn.html. I don't think I convinced anyone over there. Oh... you're referring to my edit-notice pic, aren't you? I thought you mean my current facebook pic... hold on... William M. Connolley (talk) 12:07, 25 June 2012 (UTC)
I Didn't know about the blog. I was just setting up for some good-natured teasing about you allegedly looking underage in that photo. (Note to talk page stalkers: you have to click on the edit button to see the picture I am talking about). Nice comments on that blog, BTW. Alas, you can't use reason to change a person's mind when they didn't use reason to arrive at their position in the first place. --Guy Macon (talk) 12:48, 25 June 2012 (UTC)
For most people, nudity and swear words have their place and time. I was at a party once, and we were all having a great time, when out of the blue, some guy comes up to a group of us, takes his "member" out of his pants, and starts swinging it around, showing it to everybody. Now, nobody wanted to see that. However, if he had taken off his clothes and jumped in the pool, nobody would have even noticed (and in fact a very beautiful, well-endowed young lady did just that, and hardly an eye turned). So, I think the main objection that is reasonable, is context and distance. For example, if your child is doing a book report on Cleaveland, you probably don't want them have to read about a Cleaveland steamer (or try to explain it to them). For me, this can be fixed by correcting poor search terms and redirects, and I think the Sanger & Wikipedia is Porn crowd do have a point when they say it is easy to access the "wrong" material during a search. But, the answer isn't censorship, it's about finding new and better ways to optimize the search and retrieval process and to direct users to the content they are actually searching for instead. Viriditas (talk) 04:54, 26 June 2012 (UTC)
BTW, the pic I was talking about is this. I decided not to upload it to wiki :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 08:43, 26 June 2012 (UTC)
Really? (smile) I don't see a 18 U.S.C. Section 2257 Compliance Notice... (Note to the humor impaired: STILL not being serious...) --Guy Macon (talk) 09:04, 26 June 2012 (UTC)

Speedy deletion nomination of User:JournalScholar[edit]

Er, not that you created the attack..... I'll go leave a personal note on the user's talk page... sorry to bother you. Sailsbystars (talk) 17:41, 27 June 2012 (UTC)
Ta. I asked DS to look into the issues around this but he didn't care. Someone should William M. Connolley (talk) 14:39, 29 June 2012 (UTC)

Edit warring.[edit]

There's an interesting article in PLOS One about edit-warring. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 17:46, 30 June 2012 (UTC)

Yeah... it's been cited in WP:CONSENSUS since March, thanks to a certain cynical bastard... :P MastCell Talk 04:03, 1 July 2012 (UTC)
That was the quote that "debates [edit-wars] rarely conclude on the basis of merit...." My initial impression of the article is that it missed some of the softer aspects of how things work out. But nice charts, and some interesting observations. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 18:57, 1 July 2012 (UTC)
I read it - well, skimmed it - and I'll blog it (thanks). But I didn't find it that instructive, really. Perhaps too abstract William M. Connolley (talk) 19:55, 1 July 2012 (UTC)

Silence of the deniers[edit]

Tillman-man-man-man...long echo. [29] Viriditas (talk) 05:52, 20 July 2012 (UTC)

It's only weather, and NOAA can't even assure growers that there is an end to the drought in sight so obviously their models are no use. Bit worrying that it is starting to "leave hungry countries in the Middle East and elsewhere scrambling" – chocks away, bandits at 12 o'clock etc.? Fortunately Tom Vilsack, the US agriculture secretary, is considering a rain prayer or rain dance. . . . dave souza, talk 06:39, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
"Temperatures on land were the warmest ever recorded" in the U.S. for 2012. But not according to Ron Johnson, Republican United States Senator from Wisconsin:

A global warming skeptic, Johnson said extreme weather phenomena were better explained by sunspots than an overload of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as many scientists believe. "I absolutely do not believe in the science of man-caused climate change," Johnson said. "It's not proven by any stretch of the imagination." Johnson, in an interview last month, described believers in manmade causes of climate change as "crazy" and the theory as "lunacy." "It's far more likely that it's just sunspot activity or just something in the geologic eons of time," he said.[30]

Today, "the drought in southern Wisconsin was upgraded Thursday morning to extreme from severe, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor."[31] Viriditas (talk) 07:13, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
I do like the "its far more likely to be something, anything, other that CO2 because that would be inconvenient..." William M. Connolley (talk) 07:47, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
Doesn't the media have a responsibility to point out that Johnson's claims are not rooted in reality? Reporter Steve Schultze of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel covered the story as if Johnson's POV had some kind of credibility because he's a politician. But is there any reputable climate scientist who says extreme weather is better explained by sunspots? No, there isn't. So why does the reporter let the claim stand without any investigation, and act as if there isn't good evidence one way or the other? Exactly what kind of journalists are colleges turning out these days? Simply letting an authority repeat debunked nonsense without any type of challenge or correction is not journalism. Viriditas (talk) 07:59, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
On journalism, from a set that starts here. . . dave souza, talk 08:22, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
Wow, I never thought I would ever say this, but thank goodness for ABC News. I will make an effort to patronize their advertisers. Viriditas (talk) 10:06, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
Patronize them? That reminds me of the episode of Cheers where Sam had bar napkins made up that said: "Thank you for patronizing me".

Also, here's how things will actually play out, at least in the U.S.: climate change → more frequent and severe droughts → food prices skyrocket → consumers have less disposable income → people demand that we loosen regulations on oil companies so gas gets cheaper → gas does not get any cheaper but carbon emissions increase → return to beginning of this sentence. MastCell Talk 18:13, 20 July 2012 (UTC)

Self-fulfilling prophecy MastCell? 99.112.212.204 (talk) 00:19, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
Nope, facts: "June broke or tied 3,215 high-temperature records across the United States. That followed the warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe."[32] Viriditas (talk) 08:33, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
Treat with caution: Appell notes an error already pointed out by Tamino. Well, many of us aren't statisticians, especially me. . dave souza, talk 09:06, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
That particular error turns out to be statistically interesting, but not important to the arguement William M. Connolley (talk) 09:16, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
Heh. That's what I get for citing Rolling Stone. Viriditas (talk) 09:38, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
Rolling Stone does decent, if slightly sycophantic, celebrity sit-down pieces, but their scientific coverage generally appears to be fact-checked by Jenny McCarthy. Cite at your own risk. :P MastCell Talk 16:55, 23 July 2012 (UTC)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── A matter of presentation: JnG raises a similar caution about presentation of another statistic, and more recently has expressed cautious optimism for the coming months, as least for Tx. Perhaps rather hotter for most. . . dave souza, talk 09:39, 23 July 2012 (UTC)

Oh, sorry, that was me getting the two cases confused. So the one Tamino was talking about was the 1/3^13 one, for which ignoring auto-correlation turns out not to matter too much, because its small anyway (because the spatial region is just the US). The one V mentions - the 327 one - is talking about global temperature, where the autocorrelation is much higher, so 1/2^327 is badly wrong as a calculation. But I suspect the same underlying answer applies - that when you do take account of autocorrelation, the chances of it happening remains very low. But it would be good to get these things correct.
Mind you, this is all a great nonsense and only for public consumption: the reason we know its warmer is because of the temperature record. Looks at extremes isn't a good way to observe warming William M. Connolley (talk) 14:21, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
Can anyone comment on this news item about the record melting of Greenland and what this means? Viriditas (talk) 01:41, 25 July 2012 (UTC)
The Graun quotes the NASA press release: "This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?", while noting that Lora Koenig, another Goddard glaciologist, told Nasa similar rapid melting occurs about every 150 years. But she warned there were wide-ranging potential implications from this year's thaw. . . dave souza, talk 08:18, 25 July 2012 (UTC)
JB's blog is interesting. See-also the most recent. I was a bit dubious about the every-150-years thing; would be nice to see the data William M. Connolley (talk) 19:34, 25 July 2012 (UTC)
In comments to this GPWayne suggests Alley, R.B., and S. Anandakrishnan. 1995. Variations in melt-layer frequency in the GISP2 ice core: implications for Holocene summer temperatures in central Greenland. Annals of Glaciology 21:64-70, but access restricted to IGS members. . . dave souza, talk 06:58, 26 July 2012 (UTC)
That can't be the right answer; its 1994 which is antique and its "only" proceedings, although it is a bit reviewed. Ah, but what about http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/alley1.html ? that looks more useful, and also rather blows the "every 150 years" nonsense William M. Connolley (talk) 15:43, 26 July 2012 (UTC)
<ec> I bow to your expertise. Rather a shame, I was hoping this ice melt wasn't as bad as it looks. . . dave souza, talk 17:36, 26 July 2012 (UTC)
Update: the Graun's chatter now includes WildGlaciologist 26 July 2012 4:04PM proposing that the "150 years" is an overall average of the intervals in Alley and Anandakrishnan, obscuring the melt events being more frequent during the holocene optimum and the interval increasing to 250 years during the last 4,000 years (BP). Bit silly to put the nonsense in a press release if that's all it's based on. . dave souza, talk 18:12, 26 July 2012 (UTC)

I've already been asked about "all the ice in Greenland melting" (!!), and can only wonder how soon this palpable untruth is cited as evidence of "warmer" deceitfulness. The warm, brownish colors on the NASA image certainly suggests bare rock, and the new media don't seem to be dispelling the notion that all of the ice sheet is gone. Lest any passers-by get confused, we should point out the "Greenland-melt" is only of the surface of the Greenland ice sheet. The bulk of the ice sheet is still there. Else we would be seeing several meters of sea-level rise. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 17:32, 26 July 2012 (UTC)

My reading was that it was pink for warm, meaning surface melting and a change in albedo. Bad enough, haven't yet seen any claims it was deep melt. . dave souza, talk 17:36, 26 July 2012 (UTC)

Oldest known climate records?[edit]

Greetings, please have a second look at the talk page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Proxy_(climate)#Oldest_known_records (now with second source), also this article http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/science/earths-oxygen-a-mystery-easy-to-take-for-granted.html Prokaryotes (talk) 20:24, 9 April 2014 (UTC)

Your recent revert[edit]

Hi William, care to explain your revert, especially what you refer to as "rv a huge pile of changes. far too much of it was wrong." What in particular is wrong? Since I'm willing to edit recent changes, i ask you to discuss what you deem "wrong" on the article talk page, see you there. prokaryotes (talk) 22:21, 15 April 2014 (UTC)

A discussion of recent edits can be found here prokaryotes (talk) 23:08, 15 April 2014 (UTC)