2016 Virginia Democratic primary

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Virginia Democratic primary, 2016

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  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 62 33
Popular vote 504,741 276,370
Percentage 64.29% 35.20%

Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Virginia as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states including their own Virginia primary.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Primary results March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.3%
Bernie Sanders
35.2%
Other 0.5%
SurveyMonkey[1]

Margin of error: ?
Sample size: 908

February 22–29, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
7%
YouGov/CBS News[2]

Margin of error: 9.2%
Sample size: 471

February 22–26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth[3]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

February 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
7%
Roanoke College[4]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

February 16–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
17%
Public Policy Polling[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Christopher Newport University[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 735

February 3–14, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
University of Mary Washington[7]

Registered voters:
Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 357
Likely voters:
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 276

November 4–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58% (RV)
63% (LV)
Bernie Sanders
32% (RV)
27% (LV)
Martin O'Malley
4% (RV)
5% (LV)
Don't know/None/Refused/Wouldn't vote in that primary
7% (RV)
5% (LV)
Christopher Newport University[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 407

September 29 –October 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden
23%
Jim Webb 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lincoln Chafee <1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided/Don't Know/Refused 5%
Public Policy Polling[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 409

July 13–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Jim Webb
8%
Lincoln Chafee 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Not sure 7%
Christopher Newport University[10]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

April 13–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton
80%
Jim Webb
6%
Joe Biden
5%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee<1%, Someone else 2%, Undecided 3%
Christopher Newport University

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

January 30 – February 10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65%
Jim Webb
10%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Deval Patrick 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 2%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Christopher Newport University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 391

February 23–28, 2014 Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
19%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Undecided 9%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
University of Mary Washington

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

September 25–29, 2013 Hillary Clinton
34%
Mark Warner
16%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, None 12%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ±5.2%
Sample size: 357

July 11–14, 2013 Hillary Clinton
51%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%, Cory Booker 4%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Someone else/Undecided 8%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 421

May 24–26, 2013 Hillary Clinton
56%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Elizabeth Warren 3%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Undecided 10%
University of Mary Washington

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

March 20–24, 2013 Hillary Clinton
38%
Mark Warner
18%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Other 1%, None 12%, Don't know 12%

Results[edit]

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 95

Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 504,741 64.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,370 35.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,930 0.50%
Uncommitted N/A
0
1
1
Total 785,041 100% 95 14 109
Source: The Green Papers, Virginia Department of Elections

Results by county/Independent cities[edit]

County[11] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Accomack 72.0% 1,790 27.4% 682
Albermarle 54.6% 8,288 45.0% 6,844
Alexandria 69.5% 16,310 29.9% 7,031
Alleghany 63.3% 433 36.0% 246
Amelia 78.8% 671 21.0% 179
Amherst 65.2% 1,044 34.1% 546
Appomattox 67.0% 448 32.1% 215
Arlington 66.8% 25,582 32.8% 12,566
Augusta 48.0% 1,639 51.4% 1,754
Bath 63.0% 148 36.6% 86
Bedford 56.5% 1,876 42.9% 1,424
Bland 51.7% 125 47.1% 114
Botetourt 55.7% 888 43.6% 695
Bristol 56.3% 428 42.6% 324
Brunswick 89.7% 1,354 10.1% 153
Buchanan 70.3% 523 28.4% 211
Buckingham 76.6% 902 23.1% 272
Buena Vista 58.2% 142 41.0% 100
Campbell 65.8% 1,299 33.8% 667
Caroline 74.2% 1,902 25.1% 642
Carroll 57.1% 601 42.4% 446
Charles City 85.6% 864 14.0% 141
Charlotte 79.1% 162 20.2% 162
Charlottesville 46.3% 3,889 53.4% 4,483
Chesapeake 74.1% 16,133 25.5% 5,558
Chesterfield 66.0% 22,617 33.6% 11,514
Clarke 51.4% 625 47.7% 581
Colonia Heights 55.8% 407 43.4% 316
Covington 73.6% 237 25.5% 82
Craig 51.1% 113 48.0% 106
Culpeper 54.7% 1,421 44.4% 1,154
Cumberland 79.9% 639 19.8% 158
Danville 79.9% 2,677 19.6% 656
Dickenson 60.0% 346 38.7% 223
Dinwiddie 83.3% 1,935 16.2% 375
Emporia 88.7% 407 10.9% 50
Essex 82.1% 643 17.1% 134
Fairfax (City) 59.4% 1,841 40.2% 1,246
Fairfax (County) 63.0% 88,147 36.4% 50,930
Falls Church 61.2% 1,588 38.5% 1,000
Fauquier 54.5% 2,860 44.7% 2,345
Floyd 29.6% 396 70.1% 936
Fluvanna 57.6% 1,355 41.8% 984
Franklin 86.9% 804 12.4% 115
Franklin 62.6% 1,675 36.6% 980
Frederick 50.1% 2,114 49.1% 2,072
Fredericksburg 52.7% 1,400 46.7% 1,241
Galax 57.9% 129 41.3% 92
Giles 55.7% 405 43.6% 317
Gloucester 59.1% 1,448 40.5% 993
Goochland 71.5% 1,574 28.3% 624
Grayson 49.3% 265 50.0% 269
Greene 48.7% 579 50.8% 603
Greensville 87.7% 832 11.9% 113
Halifax 80.8% 1,756 18.6% 403
Hampton 77.9% 13,542 21.7% 3,770
Hanover 59.9% 4,916 39.7% 3,255
Harrisonburg 33.6% 1,482 66.1% 2,914
Henrico 69.8% 28,170 29.7% 11,994
Henry 72.7% 1,810 26.7% 664
Highland 49.4% 86 50.6% 88
Hopewell 77.4% 1,177 22.2% 337
Isle of Wight 73.9% 2,449 25.7% 853
James City 65.1% 5,213 34.3% 2,752
King and Queen 78.7% 477 20.8% 126
King George 59.4% 916 39.7% 612
King William 72.0% 843 26.9% 315
Lancaster 74.4% 823 24.8% 275
Lee 63.5% 317 34.1% 170
Lexington 61.2% 403 37.9% 250
Loudoun 58.6% 21,180 40.8% 14,730
Louisa 65.5% 1,630 34.1% 849
Lunenburg 83.5% 736 16.0% 141
Lynchburg 61.6% 3,105 38.2% 1,923
Madison 59.1% 538 40.7% 370
Manassas 58.0% 1,813 41.1% 1,284
Manassas Park 57.4% 581 42.2% 427
Martinsville 75.3% 834 23.8% 264
Mathews 63.2% 435 35.9% 247
Mecklenburg 80.3% 1,589 19.2% 379
Middlesex 64.4% 509 35.4% 280
Montgomery 40.7% 3,507 59.0% 5,090
Nelson 56.2% 992 43.1% 761
New Kent 67.8% 951 31.4% 440
Newport News 73.0% 4,553 26.6% 4,553
Norfolk 69.2% 15,760 30.5% 6,936
Northampton 72.5% 868 27.1% 324
Northumberland 75.1% 823 24.2% 265
Norton 53.8% 86 45.0% 72
Nottoway 78.1% 829 21.1% 224
Orange 59.9% 1,322 39.4% 870
Page 53.4% 411 46.0% 353
Patrick 48.9% 361 50.3% 372
Petersburg 85.4% 4,100 14.3% 688
Pittsylvania 75.2% 2,371 24.3% 766
Poquoson 46.5% 295 52.8% 335
Portsmouth 78.5% 9,469 21.1% 2,541
Powhatan 64.4% 1,079 35.3% 592
Prince Edward 75.9% 1,366 23.3% 420
Prince George 77.7% 1,994 22.1% 566
Prince William 63.9% 26,443 35.5% 14,701
Pulaski 58.3% 837 41.0% 588
Radford 41.6% 472 57.7% 655
Richmond (City) 60.6% 21,828 39.2% 14,117
Richmond (County) 80.1% 333 19.2% 80
Roanoke (City) 59.0% 4,784 40.8% 3,302
Roanoke (County) 54.3% 3,325 45.1% 2,761
Rockbridge 57.1% 902 42.8% 676
Rockingham 47.0% 1,735 52.6% 1,943
Russell 59.9% 557 38.8% 361
Salem 50.9% 765 48.4% 727
Scott 56.2% 305 42.9% 233
Shenandoah 50.5% 960 48.8% 929
Smyth 58.7% 527 40.2% 361
Southampton 83.8% 1,199 15.1% 216
Spotsylvania 60.4% 5,399 38.9% 3,480
Stafford 60.9% 6,439 38.2% 4,042
Staunton 44.8% 1,115 54.8% 1,365
Suffolk 79.5% 7,537 20.0% 1,895
Surry 81.8% 812 17.5% 174
Sussex 90.5% 957 9.3% 98
Tazewell 57.6% 683 40.6% 481
Virginia Beach 63.1% 22,362 36.6% 12,983
Warren 48.0% 942 51.4% 1,008
Washington 54.1% 1,185 45.0% 984
Waynesboro 50.3% 788 49.0% 769
Westmoreland 74.5% 879 25.0% 295
Williamsburg 49.0% 1,159 50.7% 1,199
Winchester 50.9% 950 48.4% 903
Wise 46.8% 519 52.3% 579
Whythe 55.3% 529 44.2% 423
York 61.4% 3,292 38.1% 2,041
Total 64.3% 504,741 35.2% 276,370

Analysis[edit]

After losing the state badly to Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 29 points against Bernie Sanders in 2016. Her victory was primarily delivered by African Americans who backed Clinton 84-16, and women, who backed Clinton over Sanders by a margin of 70-30. Clinton also won the white vote in Virginia, 57-42, which comprised 63% of the electorate in the State. Clinton swept all income levels and educational attainment levels.

Clinton won most of the major cities in Virginia. She won Alexandria and Fairfax by a wide margin. She also won the D.C. suburbs as a whole, 65-35. This region has a large population of college-educated whites as well as African Americans. Clinton won the Northern Virginia Exurbs 60-40. She performed well in more rural Central Virginia and western Virginia including the Shenandoah Valley, winning 54-43 over Bernie Sanders and carrying the city of Roanoke. Clinton also won the eastern region of Virginia, including the major city of Richmond, by a margin of 66-34. She won in the Tidewater region of Virginia 72-28.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". Retrieved 2016-03-01.
  2. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerVirginia". Retrieved 2016-02-28.
  3. ^ "VIRGINIA: TRUMP, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES" (PDF).
  4. ^ "RC Poll: Clinton, Trump hold leads in Virginia primary elections; Cruz, Rubio in tight battle for second".
  5. ^ "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  6. ^ "Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats" (PDF).
  7. ^ "VIRGINIA SURVEY 2015" (PDF). umw.edu. Retrieved 2015-11-17.
  8. ^ "Clinton top choice among Virginia Democrats, but Biden performs better against Republicans" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved 2015-10-12.
  9. ^ "Bush leads GOP Field in Virginia Poll" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 2015-07-16.
  10. ^ "Bush tops Clinton in battleground Virginia; Republican 2016 field still largely wide open, while Democrats rally strongly around Clinton" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved 2015-07-11.
  11. ^ http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016%20March%20Democratic%20Presidential%20Primary/Site/President.html