World population estimates

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

This article lists estimates of world population over the course of history and prehistory, as well as projections of future developments. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges:

year 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
population
(in millions)
350–400 425–500 500–580 600–680 890–980 1,560–1,710 6,060–6,150

Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, world population for the year 2012 was estimated at 7.02, 7.06 and 7.08 billion by the United States Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.

Deep prehistory[edit]

Most published estimates of historical world population begin at "year zero" of the Common Era, when world population was in the nine digits (estimates range between 150 and 330 million).

Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "10,000 BCE", i.e. the last glacial maximum,[1] when world population is estimated to have numbered a few million (roughly one to ten million).

Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the Upper Paleolithic, is of a different nature, human population consisted entirely of non-sedentary hunter and gatherer populations, and because human populations at the time fall into a number of archaic species or sub-species, some but not all of which are ancestral to the modern human population due to archaic human admixture with modern humans taking place during the Upper Paleolithic. Estimates on the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped as low as to some 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.[2][3][4]

Historical population[edit]

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BCE (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BCE, etc.). The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.

Before 1950[edit]

Year Population Reference Bureau

(1973–2014)[5]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2013)[6]

HYDE

(2007)[7]

Maddison

(2003, 2007)[8]

Tanton

(1994)[9]

Biraben

(1980)[10]

McEvedy &

Jones (1978)[11]

Thomlinson

(1975)[12]

Durand

(1974)[13]

Clark

(1967)[14]

−10000 2M 4M 1–10M
−9000 4M
−8000 5M 5M 5–10M
−7000 8M
−6000 11M
−5000 18M 5M 5–20M
−4000 28M 7M
−3000 45M 14M
−2000 72M 27M
−1000 115M 50M
−200 150M
0 300M 300M 188M 231M[15] 150M 255M 170M 200M 270–330M
14 256M
100 195M
200 202M 256M 190M
300 205M
350 254M
400 209M 206M 190M
500 210M 206M 190M
600 213M 206M 200M 237M
700 226M 207M 210M
800 240M 224M 220M 261M
900 269M 226M 240M
1000 310M 295M 268M 254M 265M 275–345M 280M
1100 353M 301M 320M
1200 450M 393M 400M 360M 384M
1250 400M 416M 350M to 450M
1300 392M 300M 432M 360M 400M
1340 443M 378M
1400 390M 374M 350M
1500 500M 461M 438M 460M 425M 440–540M 427M
1600 554M 556M 579M 545M 498M
1650 500M 545M 500M 516M
1700 603M 603M 600M 679M 610M 600M 641M
1750 795M 791M 814M 770M 720M 700M 735–805M 731M
1800 978M 989M 900M 954M 900M 900M 890M
1820 1,042M
1850 1,265M 1,262M 1,263M 1,241M 1,200M 1,200M
1870 1,272M
1875 1,325M
1900 1,656M 1,650M 1,654M 1,564M 1,600M 1,633M 1,625M 1,600M 1,650–1,710M 1,668M
1910 1,750M 1,777M
1913 1,791M
1920 1,860M 1,912M 1,968M
1925 2,000M
1930 2,070M 2,092M 2,145M
1940 2,300M 2,307M 2,340M

1950 to present[edit]

For times after World War II, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers (typically given by country) of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding. Taking these numbers at face value would be false precision; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best.

Year United States Census Bureau

(2014)[16]

Population Reference Bureau

(1973–2014)[5]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2013)[6]

HYDE

(2007)[7]

Maddison

(2003, 2007)[17]

Tanton

(1994)[9]

Biraben

(1980)[10]

McEvedy &

Jones (1978)[11]

Thomlinson

(1975)[12]

Durand

(1974)[13]

Clark

(1967)[14]

1950 2,557,628,654 2,516,000,000 2,526,000,000 2,544,000,000 2,524,324,000 2,400,000,000 2,527,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,499,000,000
1951 2,594,919,657 2,572,850,917
1952 2,636,732,631 2,619,292,068
1953 2,681,994,386 2,665,865,392
1954 2,730,149,884 2,713,172,027
1955 2,782,001,154 2,761,650,981 2,766,471,000
1956 2,835,182,293 2,811,572,031
1957 2,891,211,793 2,863,042,795
1958 2,947,979,287 2,916,030,167
1959 3,000,544,325 2,970,395,814
1960 3,042,828,380 3,026,002,942 3,042,000,000 3,038,795,000
1961 3,083,799,968 3,082,830,266
1962 3,139,919,051 3,141,071,531 3,132,691,000 3,036,000,000
1963 3,209,631,895 3,201,178,277
1964 3,280,981,862 3,263,738,832
1965 3,350,186,115 3,329,122,479 3,328,882,000
1966 3,420,416,498 3,397,475,247 3,397,631,000 3,288,000,000
1967 3,490,051,163 3,468,521,724
1968 3,562,007,503 3,541,674,891
1969 3,636,825,800 3,616,108,749
1970 3,712,338,708 3,691,172,616 3,710,000,000 3,685,058,000 3,637,000,000 3,600,000,000 3,600,000,000 to 3,700,000,000
1971 3,789,941,225 3,766,754,345
1972 3,866,158,404 3,842,873,611
1973 3,941,664,971 3,919,182,332 3,923,000,000 3,916,489,000
1974 4,016,159,586 3,995,304,922
1975 4,088,621,062 4,071,020,434 4,065,408,000 3,900,000,000 4,000,000,000
1976 4,159,718,199 4,146,135,850
1977 4,231,619,236 4,220,816,737
1978 4,303,647,736 4,295,664,825
1979 4,378,565,589 4,371,527,871
1980 4,450,929,761 4,449,048,798 4,461,000,000 4,435,598,000
1981 4,533,928,518 4,528,234,634
1982 4,614,015,853 4,608,962,418
1983 4,695,112,999 4,691,559,840
1984 4,773,874,962 4,776,392,828
1985 4,855,692,131 4,863,601,517 4,830,813,000 5,000,000,000
1986 4,939,715,093 4,953,376,710
1987 5,026,262,667 5,045,315,871
1988 5,113,554,741 5,138,214,688
1989 5,200,376,354 5,230M
1990 5,287,869,228 5,320,816,667 5,308,000,000 5,259,502,000
1991 5,370,833,520 5,408,908,724
1992 5,455,716,183 5,494,899,570
1993 5,538,201,967 5,578,865,109
1994 5,618,942,438 5,661,086,346
1995 5,699,768,392 5,760,000,000 5,741,822,412 5,677,287,000
1996 5,780,312,511 5,821,016,750
1997 5,859,124,817 5,840,000,000 5,898,688,337
1998 5,936,610,692 5,975,303,657 5,914,930,000
1999 6,013,679,354 6,051,478,010 5,997,967,000
2000 6,090,319,399 6,067,000,000 6,127,700,428 6,145M 6,071,144,000 5,750,000,000
2001 6,167,064,399 6,204,147,026 6,149,006,000
2002 6,243,867,851 6,215,000,000 6,280,853,817
2003 6,320,371,175 6,314,000,000 6,357,991,749
2004 6,397,322,922 6,396,000,000 6,435,705,595
2005 6,474,229,144 6,477,000,000 6,514,094,605
2006 6,552,104,498 6,555,000,000 6,593,227,977
2007 6,630,764,007 6,625,000,000 6,673,105,937
2008 6,709,620,605 6,705,000,000 6,753,649,228
2009 6,788,203,578 6,809,972,000 6,834,721,933
2010 6,866,054,281 6,892,319,000 6,916,183,482
2011 6,943,437,438 6,986,951,000 6,997,998,760
2012 7,020,760,225 7,057,075,000 7,080,072,417
2013 7,098,495,231 7,136,796,000 7,162,119,434

Projections[edit]

The population of the world is currently (as of 2014) projected to reach 8 billion in 2025, and 9 billion by about 2040/42.

Reasonable prediction of population development are possible for the next 30 years or so, representing the period of fertility of the children alive today. Projections of population reaching more than one generation into the future are highly speculative: Thus, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs report of 2004 projected the world population to peak at 9.22 billion in 2075 and then stabilise at a value close to 9 billion;[18] By contrast, a 2014 projection by the United Nations Population Division predicts a population close to 11 billion by 2100 without any declining trend in the foreseeable future.[19] On the other hand, a conservative scenario published in 2012 assumes that a maximum of 8 billion will be reached before 2040.[20]

The following table shows projections of world population for the 21st century.

Year United States Census Bureau

(2014)[16]

Population Reference Bureau

(2014)[21]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2013)[6]

2014 7,176,023,055 7,238,184,000 7,243,784,121
2015 7,253,260,112 7,324,782,225
2016 7,330,119,639 7,404,976,783
2017 7,406,521,216 7,484,325,476
2018 7,482,239,028 7,562,760,049
2019 7,557,130,074 7,640,244,883
2020 7,631,071,690 7,716,749,042
2021 7,704,115,688 7,792,209,448
2022 7,776,293,343 7,866,579,808
2023 7,847,482,286 7,939,876,856
2024 7,917,600,174 8,012,143,175
2025 7,986,584,268 8,000,000,000 8,083,412,759
2026 8,054,512,457 8,153,677,369
2027 8,121,441,056 8,222,926,554
2028 8,187,308,524 8,291,192,823
2029 8,252,088,787 8,358,519,176
2030 8,315,758,309 8,444,000,000 8,424,937,474
2031 8,378,365,217 8,490,455,587
2032 8,439,982,435 8,555,067,634
2033 8,500,602,336 8,618,773,635
2034 8,560,208,295 8,681,569,042
2035 8,618,767,751 8,743,446,952
2036 8,676,328,419 8,804,405,816
2037 8,732,942,484 8,864,436,768
2038 8,788,587,101 8,923,514,713
2039 8,843,232,673 8,981,607,338
2040 8,896,844,579 9,038,687,151
2041 8,949,450,376 9,094,743,549
2042 9,001,084,601 9,149,768,513
2043 9,051,710,688 9,203,740,560
2044 9,101,286,573 9,256,636,273
2045 9,149,777,822 9,308,438,178
2046 9,197,214,283 9,359,139,840
2047 9,243,623,755 9,408,741,189
2048 9,288,977,019 9,457,240,781
2049 9,333,247,705 9,504,640,288
2050 9,376,416,975 9,683,000,000 9,550,944,891
2051 9,596,160,310
2052 9,640,298,273
2053 9,683,379,446
2054 9,725,429,894
2055 9,766,475,107
2056 9,806,530,407
2057 9,845,614,720
2058 9,883,762,213
2059 9,921,012,280
2060 9,957,398,588
2061 9,992,942,091
2062 10,027,657,203
2063 10,061,562,395
2064 10,094,674,166
2065 10,127,006,921
2066 10,158,578,935
2067 10,189,401,603
2068 10,219,473,319
2069 10,248,786,569
2070 10,277,339,229
2071 10,305,145,554
2072 10,332,223,181
2073 10,358,578,322
2074 10,384,216,409
2075 10,409,149,043
2076 10,433,384,559
2077 10,456,948,830
2078 10,479,892,851
2079 10,502,280,113
2080 10,524,161,005
2081 10,545,552,880
2082 10,566,460,628
2083 10,586,904,845
2084 10,606,903,863
2085 10,626,467,422
2086 10,645,602,142
2087 10,664,297,922
2088 10,682,524,227
2089 10,700,237,846
2090 10,717,401,021
2091 10,733,987,343
2092 10,749,979,712
2093 10,765,365,331
2094 10,780,129,870
2095 10,794,252,256
2096 10,807,702,741
2097 10,820,441,927
2098 10,832,420,339
2099 10,843,578,834
2100 10,853,848,570

Other, historical projections include

  • Tanton (1994):[9] 8 billion for the year 2020;
  • McEvedy & Jones (1978):[11] 5.75 billion for the year 2000, 8.25 billion for the year 2200.

By world region[edit]

Population estimates for world regions based on Maddison (2007),[22] in millions. The row showing total world population includes the average growth rate per year over the period separating each column from the preceding one.

year 0 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1913 2000 2030
East/Southeast Asia 74 (33%) 88 (33%) 156 (28%) 223 (37%) 216 (36%) 469 (45%) 613 (34%) 1,996 (33%) 2,417 (30%)
South Asia 75 (33%) 75 (28%) 110 (25%) 135 (24%) 165 (27%) 216 (21%) 326 (18%) 1,372 (23%) 2,003 (25%)
Europe[23] 34 (15%) 40 (15%) 78 (18%) 112 (20%) 127 (21%) 224 (21%) 498 (28%) 742 (13%) 829 (11%)
West Asia 19 (8%) 20 (7%) 18 (3%) 21 (3%) 21 (3%) 25 (2%) 39 (2%) 237 (4%) 370 (5%)
Africa 17 (8%) 32 (12%) 47 (11%) 55 (10%) 61 (10%) 74 (7%) 125 (7%) 798 (13%) 1,449 (18%)
South/Central America 6 (3%) 11 (4%) 18 (4%) 9 (2%) 12 (2%) 22 (2%) 81 (5%) 520 (9%) 702 (9%)
North America 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 2 (0%) 2 (0%) 1 (0%) 11 (1%) 105 (6%) 314 (5%) 413 (5%)
World 226 267
(+ 0.02% p.a.)
438
(+ 0.1% p.a.)
556
(+ 0.2% p.a.)
603
(+ 0.1% p.a.)
1,041
(+ 0.5% p.a.)
1,791
(+ 0.6% p.a.)
6,062
(+ 1.4% p.a.)
8,175
(+ 1.0% p.a.)


See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Pala et al. 2012 Mitochondrial DNA signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia. http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/22560092/reload=0;jsessionid=Ex1l76DwTiCwb3huDcM9.6
  2. ^ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103. 
  3. ^ Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08. 
  4. ^ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652. 
  5. ^ a b Data from Population Reference Bureau.
    2014 estimate: (a) Carl Haub, 2014, "2014 World Population Data Sheet".
    2013 estimate: (b) Carl Haub, 2013, "2013 World Population Data Sheet".
    2012 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2012, "2012 World Population Data Sheet".
    2011 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2011, "2011 World Population Data Sheet".
    2010 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2010, "2010 World Population Data Sheet".
    2009 estimate: (f) Carl Haub, 2009, "2009 World Population Data Sheet".
    2008 estimate: (g) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet".
    2007 estimate: (h) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet".
    2006 estimate: (i) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet".
    2005 estimate: (j) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet".
    2004 estimate: (k) Carl Haub, 2004, "2004 World Population Data Sheet".
    2003 estimate: (l) Carl Haub, 2003, "2003 World Population Data Sheet".
    2002 estimate: (m) Carl Haub, 2002, "2002 World Population Data Sheet".
    2000 estimate: (n) 2000, "9 Billion World Population by 2050".
    1997 estimate: (o) 1997, "Studying Populations".
    Estimates for 1995 and prior: (p) Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
  6. ^ a b c Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
    1950–2100 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.[dead link]
    Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion", 1999.
    Estimates from 1950 to 2100: (c) "Population of the entire world, yearly, 1950 - 2100", 2013.
  7. ^ a b Data from History Database of the Global Environment. K. Klein Goldewijk and G. van Drecht, "HYDE 3.1: Current and historical population and land cover", in Eds. A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram, and K. Klein Goldewijk, "Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4", Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  8. ^ Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7. Statistical Appendix (2007, ggdc.net) "The historical data were originally developed in three books: Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992, OECD, Paris 1995; The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2001; The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2003. All these contain detailed source notes. Figures for 1820 onwards are annual, whereever possible. For earlier years, benchmark figures are shown for 1 AD, 1000 AD, 1500, 1600 and 1700."
  9. ^ a b c John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm", The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
  10. ^ a b Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
  11. ^ a b c Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, Atlas of World Population History, Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
  12. ^ a b Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
  13. ^ a b John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation", University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
  14. ^ a b Colin Clark, 1967, Population Growth and Land Use, St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.
  15. ^ "The present figures are a revision and update of those presented on this website in 2003. The most significant changes are in the entries for the year 1, where gaps in previous tables have been filled with the new estimates for the Roman Empire in Maddison (2007). The estimates are in fact for 14 AD"
  16. ^ a b Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Retrieved on June 10, 2014
  17. ^ Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7. Statistical Appendix (2007, ggdc.net) "OECD countries GDP revised and updated 1991-2003 from National Accounts for OECD Countries, vol. I, 2006. Norway 1820-1990 GDP from Ola Grytten (2004), “The Gross Domestic Product for Norway, 1830-2003” in Eitrheim, Klovland and Qvigstad (eds), Historical Monetary Statistics for Norway, 1819-2003, Norges Bank, Oslo. Latin American GDP 2000-2003 revised and updated from ECLAC, Statistical Yearbook 2004 and preliminary version of the 2005 Yearbook supplied by Andre Hofman. For Chile, GDP 1820-2003 from Rolf Lűders (1998), “The Comparative Economic Performance of Chile 1810-1995”, Estudios de Economia, vol. 25, no. 2, with revised population estimates from Diaz, J., R. Lűders, and G. Wagner (2005) Chili 1810-2000: la Republica en Cifras, mimeo, Instituto de Economia, Universidad Católica de Chile. For Peru, GDP 1896-1990 and population 1896-1949 from Bruno Seminario and Arlette Beltran, Crecimiento Economico en el Peru 1896-1995, Universidad del Pacifico, 1998. " "For Asia there are amendments to the GDP estimates for South and North Korea, 1911-74, to correct an error in Maddison (2003). Estimates for the Philippines, 1902-1940 were amended in line with Richard Hooley (2005), 'American Economic Policy in the Philippines, 1902-1940', Journal of Asian Economics, 16. 1820 estimates were amended for Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand." "Asian countries GDP revised and updated 1998-2003 from Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators 2005, except for South Korea and Japan, where OECD sources were used for 1991-2003. GDP for African countries updated 2000-2003 from IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2005. Population estimates for all countries except China and Indonesia revised and updated 1950-2008 and 2030 from International Data Base, International Programs Center, Population Division, US Bureau of the Census, April 2005 version. China’s population 1990-2003 from China Statistical Yearbook 2005, China Statistics Press, Beijing. Indonesian population 1950-2003 kindly supplied by Pierre van der Eng. The figures now include three countries previously omitted: Cook Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu."
  18. ^ United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population to 2300. 2004. Executive Summary, Page 2.
  19. ^ Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.;  Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. (September 14, 2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science (AAAS). doi:10.1126/science.1257469. ISSN 1095-9203. Retrieved September 21, 2014. 
  20. ^ Randers, Jorgen (2012). 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 62.
  21. ^ projections for 2025, 2030 and 2050: Population Reference Bureau.
    2014 estimate: (a) Carl Haub, 2014, "2014 World Population Data Sheet"
  22. ^ Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Statistical Appendix (2007, ggdc.net). Estimates cited are for the beginning of the 1st millennium ("year 0"), the beginning of the 2nd millennium ("year 1000"), and for the beginning each century since the 16th (years 1820 and 1913 are given for the 19th and 20th century, respectively, as Maddison presents detailed estimates for these years), and a projection for the year 2030.
  23. ^ includes Central Asia (listed under "former USSR")

Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]