China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis

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"China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis" (also "China's Peace Plan") is a document published on February 24, 2023 by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, which reflects the view of the Chinese authorities on the peaceful end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Often referred to as the "plan," the document did not contain specific measures and consisted of the Chinese authorities' earlier statements about adherence to international law, which led some commentators to regard it as a symbolic gesture addressed to Western countries.[1][2]

History[edit]

Wang Yi, head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CCP Central Committee, announced the publication of China's proposals for a peaceful end to the war between Ukraine and Russia on February 18, 2023.[3] The announcement was preceded by numerous high-level contacts between China and Russia, in the absence of discussions involving Ukraine.[4] Commentators expected that the document would be made public during the meeting of the UN General Assembly on February 23, but this did not happen, and China itself abstained from voting on resolution ES-11/6, which demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops in Ukraine.[5]

The document was published on February 24, 2023, on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It became the first major international initiative of the PRC after the Congress of the CPP in October 2022,[6] during which Xi Jinping, contrary to the country's political tradition, was re-elected General Secretary of the CCP Central Committee (paramount leader). In this context, the "peace plan" was tasked with bringing China back into international politics after the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to expectations, the document did not contain specific proposals and consisted of vague wording and repeated statements about the "supremacy of the UN Charter", respect for territorial integrity, etc.[7][8][9]

Plan[edit]

The document includes 12 actions in the plan, which can be summarized in the following points:[10]

  1. Respect for sovereignty, guarantees of independence and territorial integrity of all countries, the primacy of international law without double standards.
  2. Rejection of the "Cold War mentality", respect for the security interests of individual countries, rejection of the strengthening and expansion of military blocs.
  3. Ceasefire.
  4. Start of peace talks.
  5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
  6. Protection of civilians and prisoners of war under international humanitarian law.
  7. Ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants.
  8. Reducing strategic risks, preventing the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
  9. Guarantees for the export of grain within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
  10. Rejection of unilateral sanctions.
  11. Ensuring the stability of production and supply chains to protect the global economy.
  12. Assistance to the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

The word "war" is not mentioned in the document when it came to mentioning the actual conflict between Russia and Ukraine, nor is it used to condemn Russian aggression.[11][12]

Evaluation[edit]

Commentators noted that the document was addressed more to Western countries than to Russia or Ukraine. The release of the document coincided with the release of U.S. intelligence reports on ongoing discussions of possible Chinese arms shipments to Russia, which China has denied.[13][14] Cooperation with Western countries is incomparably more important for China than close ties with Russia.[15] Therefore, Chinese diplomats later had to justify themselves for the statements about the "boundless friendship" between Russia and China made during Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow.[16][17][18]

The published document became part of China's positioning as a mediator in resolving international conflicts (earlier, the country also acted as a mediator in the conclusion of a truce between Iran and Saudi Arabia). Moreover, the leaders of European countries directly called on China to use its diplomatic weight to influence the Russian authorities.[19] This policy is aimed at the countries of the "Global South", to which China offers itself as an alternative point of influence, different from Western countries, which does not support military conflicts and advocates a strong conservative position.[7][15][20][21]

Sinologists pointed out that China's proposed approach to a peaceful settlement was primarily in its own interests. China is not interested in the triumph or defeat of Russia: the latter plays a major role in ensuring China's energy security, and thanks to unprecedented sanctions, China is able to buy Russian resources on favorable terms. Russia, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly dependent on China, entering its political and economic orbit.[15][19] It is in China's interest to end the conflict, which will have a positive impact on the global economy and reduce nuclear tensions following Russia's repeated threats to use nuclear weapons,[22] but the country benefits from continued tensions that divert the attention and resources of China's political opponents.[12][23]

Reactions[edit]

The Ukrainian authorities reacted to China's initiative in a restrained and diplomatic manner, welcoming the very fact of the proposals, but noting the absence of conditions critical for Ukraine in the document, for example, the withdrawal of Russian troops.[21][24] The United States, the European Union, and NATO have met with skepticism about the "plan," questioning China's ability to act as an unbiased mediator as long as the country does not condemn Russian aggression and continues to blame the EU and NATO for the conflict.[20][25][8][26][23][27]

In March 2023, China's proposals were mentioned during Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow, but the entire trip was symbolic and the countries did not sign any important agreements. In the following spring months, the head of China's delegation to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Li Hui, held a series of meetings in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, Warsaw and other European capitals, as well as Moscow and Kyiv, to promote the peace plan. The Chinese proposals, in which the occupied territories would remain under Russian control, were not commented on by EU member states.[16][28]

In April 2024, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Chinese peace plan had so far been the most reasonable proposal for a peaceful solution of the conflict. Lavrov praised the Chinese peace proposal, which did not include a full Russian withdrawal from all occupied territory; Ukraine and allied nations wanted a full withdrawal. The comment by Lavrov was interpreted by Reuters as implying that Russia would be willing to negotiate a solution that accepts the Russian occupation of territories in Eastern Ukraine, termed by Russian authorities as "new realities on the ground". Switzerland proposed a meeting in relation to the Russian invasion that Lavrov described as unrealistic for Russia because it would not be invited to the meeting.[29]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Ivshina, Olga (2023-02-24). "Безучастное участие: что стоит за мирным планом Китая по Украине?" [Indifferent Participation: What Is Behind China's Peace Plan for Ukraine?]. BBC News (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  2. ^ Bekkevold, Jo Inge (2023-04-04). "China's 'Peace Plan' for Ukraine Isn't About Peace". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  3. ^ Wintour, Patrick (2023-02-18). "Chinese peace plan for Ukraine greeted cautiously by the west". The Guardian. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  4. ^ "Уважать суверенитет, отказаться от односторонних санкций и менталитета холодной войны. Китай представил план урегулирования войны в Украине" [Respect sovereignty, reject unilateral sanctions and the Cold War mentality. China presented a plan for resolving the war in Ukraine]. Meduza (in Russian). 2023-02-24. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  5. ^ "Китай в годовщину российского вторжения в Украину выпустил «мирный план» окончания войны" [On the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has released a "peace plan" to end the war]. Republic.ru (in Russian). 2023-02-24. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  6. ^ Yang, Maya; Chao-Fong, Léonie; Belam, Martin; Sullivan, Helen; Lock, Samantha; Chao-Fong, Maya Yang (now); Léonie; Lock (earlier), Samantha (2023-02-24). "Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv and Moscow welcome China's intervention – as it happened". the Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2023-11-20.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ a b Korostikov, Mikhail (2023-02-27). "Гарант золотого века. Почему Москва и Киев не важны для мирного плана Китая" [Guarantor of the Golden Age. Why Moscow And Kyiv Are Not Important To China's Peace Plan]. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  8. ^ a b Goncharenko, Roman (2023-02-24). ""Мирный план" Китая по Украине. Что о нем говорят на Западе". Deutsche Welle (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  9. ^ Arni, Anatoly (2023-02-24). "Китай опубликовал текст "мирного плана" – без слова "война"" [China Publishes Text of 'Peace Plan' – Without Word 'War']. Deutsche Welle (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  10. ^ "«Если и есть главный бенефициар войны, то это Китай» Китаист Темур Умаров объясняет, как Пекин своим «мирным планом» пытается дистанцироваться от России и затянуть конфликт в Украине" ["If there is a major beneficiary of the war, it is China" Sinologist Temur Umarov explains how Beijing's "peace plan" is trying to distance itself from Russia and prolong the conflict in Ukraine]. Meduza (in Russian). 2023-02-24. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  11. ^ "Зеленский высказался о ядерных угрозах Путина и позиции Китая по окончанию войны" [Zelensky spoke about Putin's nuclear threats and China's position on ending the war]. Republic.ru (in Russian). 2023-03-30. Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  12. ^ a b Verlin, Evgeny (2023-03-16). "Обреченные на противостояние. Николай Кузнецов: «У Китая очень мало рычагов воздействия на стороны конфликта»". Republic.ru (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  13. ^ "США опасаются, что Китай готов поставить России дроны-камикадзе на замену иранским Такие слухи появились на фоне публикации китайского плана урегулирования конфликта России и Украины" [The United States fears that China is ready to supply Russia with kamikaze drones to replace Iranian ones Such rumors appeared against the backdrop of the publication of the Chinese plan for resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine]. Meduza (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  14. ^ Standish, Reed; Gostev, Alexander (2023-02-27). "Набор фраз для Запада. Мирный план Пекина, нужный лишь ему самому" [A set of phrases for the West. Beijing's Peace Plan, Only Itself]. Radio Free Europe (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-14.
  15. ^ a b c ""В "формуле мира" Зеленского поля для маневра нет". Украинский депутат – о том, на какой мирный план от Китая согласится Украина" ["In the 'peace plan', Zelensky has no room for maneuver." Ukrainian MP on what peace plan from China Ukraine will agree to]. Current Time TV (in Russian). 2023-03-22. Retrieved 2023-11-15.
  16. ^ a b Pancevski, Bojan; Mackrael, Kim (2023-05-26). "Europe Rebuffs China's Efforts to Split the West in Pushing Ukraine Cease-Fire". The Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  17. ^ "США обвинили Китай в намерении дать России оружие. Пекин готовит мирный план и отправляет делегацию в Москву" [The U.S. has accused China of intending to give Russia weapons. Beijing prepares peace plan, sends delegation to Moscow]. BBC News (in Russian). 2023-02-20. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  18. ^ "Як Китай підтримує Росію під час війни в Україні" [How China supports Russia during the war in Ukraine]. BBC News (in Ukrainian). 2023-02-21. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  19. ^ a b "Analysis: China's Ukraine plan mixes peace, self-interest". Associated Press. 2023-04-28. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  20. ^ a b Ellyatt, Holly (2023-05-15). "China doesn't really care who wins the war in Ukraine — it just wants to win the peace, analysts say". CNBC. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  21. ^ a b "China's Peace Plan for Ukraine Could Have Dangerous Consequences". Time. 2023-03-02. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
  22. ^ "China's Position on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine". United States–China Economic and Security Review Commission. 2023-10-27. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  23. ^ a b Sauer, Pjotr; Davidson, Helen (2023-03-21). "Putin welcomes China's controversial proposals for peace in Ukraine". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  24. ^ ""Мирный план" Китая по Украине. Что о нем говорят на Западе". dw.com (in Russian). 2023-02-24. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  25. ^ "Байден назвал китайский мирный план по Украине «выгодным только России»". Meduza (in Russian). Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  26. ^ "Scholz kritisiert Chinas Papier zum Ukraine-Krieg". Welt (in German). 2023-02-25. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  27. ^ Wong, Edward; Crowley, Michael (2023-05-12). "Ukraine's Offensive Could Set Stage for Diplomacy With Russia, U.S. Officials Say". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  28. ^ "Китай констатировал фиаско «мирного плана» по Украине". The Moscow Times (in Russian). 2023-06-02. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  29. ^ "Russia's Lavrov says Chinese peace plan on Ukraine is most reasonable so far" Reuters. April 4 2024. Accessed 5 April 2024.
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