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major update including recent ice core studies and volcano source finding
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{{Short description|Large volcanic eruption of uncertain location}}
{{Short description|Large volcanic eruption of uncertain location}}
There are two mystery volcanic eruptions that took place in the mid-1400s: the [[1452/1453 mystery eruption]] and '''1458 mystery eruption'''.<ref name="Plummer2012">{{Cite journal |first1=Christopher T. |last1=Plummer|first2=M. A. J. |last2=Curran |first3=Tas D.|last3=van Ommen |first4=S.O. |last4=Rasmussen |first5=A. D.|last5= Moy |first6=Tessa R.|last6=Vance|last7=Clausen|first7=H. B. |last8=Vinther|first8=Bo M. |last9=Mayewski |first9=P. A.|journal=Climate of the Past Discussions |volume=8 |pages=1567–1590|date=2012-05-01 |doi=10.5194/cpd-8-1567-2012 |title=An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the c. 1450s eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu
There are two large sulfate spikes caused by mystery volcanic eruptions in the mid-1400s: the [[1452/1453 mystery eruption]] and '''1458 mystery eruption'''.<ref name="Plummer2012">{{Cite journal |first1=Christopher T. |last1=Plummer|first2=M. A. J. |last2=Curran |first3=Tas D.|last3=van Ommen |first4=S.O. |last4=Rasmussen |first5=A. D.|last5= Moy |first6=Tessa R.|last6=Vance|last7=Clausen|first7=H. B. |last8=Vinther|first8=Bo M. |last9=Mayewski |first9=P. A.|journal=Climate of the Past Discussions |volume=8 |pages=1567–1590|date=2012-05-01 |doi=10.5194/cpd-8-1567-2012 |title=An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the c. 1450s eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu
|url= https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258612996 }}</ref><ref name="Cole-Dai2013">{{Cite journal |first1=Jihong |last1=Cole-Dai|first2=David G. |last2=Ferris |first3=Alyson L.|last3=Lanciki |first4=Joël |last4=Savarino |first5=Mark H.|last5= Thiemens |first6=Joseph R.|last6=McConnell|title= Two likely stratospheric volcanic eruptions in the 1450s C.E. found in a bipolar, subannually dated 800 year ice core record |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=118 |pages=7459–7466|date=2013-07-17 |issue=14 |doi=10.1002/jgrd.50587 |bibcode=2013JGRD..118.7459C |s2cid=129790360 | url= https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jgrd.50587 }}</ref> By 2013, the time frame had to be re-evaluated because previous ice core work had poor time resolution<ref name="Cole-Dai2013"/> so there are references to a '''1465 mystery eruption''' based on work a decade earlier.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Gao|first1=Chaochao|last2=Robock|first2=Alan|last3=Self|first3=Stephen|last4=Witter|first4=Jeffrey B.|last5=Steffenson|first5=J. P.|last6=Clausen|first6=Henrik Brink|last7=Siggaard-Andersen|first7=Marie-Louise|last8=Johnsen|first8=Sigfus|last9=Mayewski|first9=Paul A.|last10=Ammann|first10=Caspar|date=2006|title=The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae eruption signal derived from multiple ice core records: Greatest volcanic sulfate event of the past 700 years|url=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005JD006710|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres|language=en|volume=111|issue=D12|doi=10.1029/2005JD006710|bibcode=2006JGRD..11112107G|issn=2156-2202}}</ref> The poor time frame led some to assume a date in the 1460s and was connected to the unusual atmospheric events during the 1465 wedding of [[Alfonso II of Naples#Marriage and children|Alfonso II of Naples]].<ref>{{cite journal|url=https://www.academia.edu/14139518|title=The day the sun turned blue. A volcanic eruption in the early 1460s and its putative climatic impact – a globally perceived volcanic disaster in the Late Middle Ages?|first=Martin |last=Bauch|journal=Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context |year=2017 |page=107 |doi=10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170630-the-massive-volcano-that-scientists-cant-find|title=The massive volcano that scientists can't find|first=Zaria|last=Gorvett|publisher=}}</ref> The exact location of either eruption is uncertain, but both have been assigned at times to the submerged [[caldera]] of [[Kuwae]] in the [[Coral Sea]]. There is evidence otherwise for both eruptions with northern hemisphere emphasis being against the 1452/3 date and composition studies being against the more recent date. <ref name="Hartman2019">{{cite journal |last1=Hartman |first1=Laura H. |last2=Kurbatov |first2=Andrei V. |last3=Winski |first3=Dominic A. |last4=Cruz-Uribe |first4=Alicia M. |last5=Davies |first5=Siwan M. |last6=Dunbar |first6=Nelia W. |last7=Iverson |first7=Nels A. |last8=Aydin |first8=Murat |last9=Fegyveresi |first9=John M. |last10=Ferris |first10=David G. |last11=Fudge |first11=T. J. |last12=Osterberg |first12=Erich C. |last13=Hargreaves |first13=Geoffrey M. |last14=Yates |first14=Martin G. |title=Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source |journal=Scientific Reports |date=8 October 2019 |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=14437 |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x |pmid=31595040 |pmc=6783439 |bibcode=2019NatSR...914437H |language=en |issn=2045-2322}}</ref> The eruption is believed to have been [[Volcanic Explosivity Index|VEI]]-7 and possibly even larger than [[Mount Tambora]]'s [[1815 eruption of Mount Tambora|1815 eruption]].<ref name="Plummer2012"/><ref name="Cole-Dai2013"/><ref name = "GenRev">{{Citation|last=Bauch|first=Martin|title=Historical Disaster Experiences|chapter=The Day the Sun Turned Blue: A Volcanic Eruption in the Early 1460s and Its Possible Climatic Impact—A Natural Disaster Perceived Globally in the Late Middle Ages?|date=2017|chapter-url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6|series=Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context|pages=107–138|place=Cham|publisher=Springer International Publishing|doi=10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6|isbn=978-3-319-49162-2|access-date=}}</ref>
|url= https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258612996 }}</ref><ref name="Cole-Dai2013">{{Cite journal |first1=Jihong |last1=Cole-Dai|first2=David G. |last2=Ferris |first3=Alyson L.|last3=Lanciki |first4=Joël |last4=Savarino |first5=Mark H.|last5= Thiemens |first6=Joseph R.|last6=McConnell|title= Two likely stratospheric volcanic eruptions in the 1450s C.E. found in a bipolar, subannually dated 800 year ice core record |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=118 |pages=7459–7466|date=2013-07-17 |issue=14 |doi=10.1002/jgrd.50587 |bibcode=2013JGRD..118.7459C |s2cid=129790360 | url= https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jgrd.50587 }}</ref> Before 2012, the date of 1458 sulfate spike was incorrectly assigned to be 1452 because previous ice core work had poor time resolution.<ref name="Cole-Dai2013"/> The exact location of this eruption is uncertain, but possible candidates include the submerged [[caldera]] of [[Kuwae]] in the [[Coral Sea]], [[Reclus (volcano)|Mount Reclus]]<ref name="Hartman2019">{{cite journal |last1=Hartman |first1=Laura H. |last2=Kurbatov |first2=Andrei V. |last3=Winski |first3=Dominic A. |last4=Cruz-Uribe |first4=Alicia M. |last5=Davies |first5=Siwan M. |last6=Dunbar |first6=Nelia W. |last7=Iverson |first7=Nels A. |last8=Aydin |first8=Murat |last9=Fegyveresi |first9=John M. |last10=Ferris |first10=David G. |last11=Fudge |first11=T. J. |last12=Osterberg |first12=Erich C. |last13=Hargreaves |first13=Geoffrey M. |last14=Yates |first14=Martin G. |date=8 October 2019 |title=Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source |journal=Scientific Reports |language=en |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=14437 |bibcode=2019NatSR...914437H |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x |issn=2045-2322 |pmc=6783439 |pmid=31595040}}</ref> and [[Tofua|Tofua caldera]]<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Németh |first=Károly |last2=Cronin |first2=Shane J. |last3=White |first3=James D. L. |date=2007-11-27 |title=Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion |url=https://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOGEOJ-1-7 |journal=The Open Geology Journal |volume=1 |issue=1}}</ref>. The eruption is believed to have been [[Volcanic Explosivity Index|VEI]]-7.<ref name="Plummer2012"/><ref name="Cole-Dai2013"/><ref name = "GenRev">{{Citation|last=Bauch|first=Martin|title=Historical Disaster Experiences|chapter=The Day the Sun Turned Blue: A Volcanic Eruption in the Early 1460s and Its Possible Climatic Impact—A Natural Disaster Perceived Globally in the Late Middle Ages?|date=2017|chapter-url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6|series=Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context|pages=107–138|place=Cham|publisher=Springer International Publishing|doi=10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6|isbn=978-3-319-49162-2|access-date=}}</ref>


== Ice core records ==
== Date of sulfate spike ==
This sulfate spike was first discovered in Antartica ice cores and is one of largest sulfur events along with that of [[1257 Samalas eruption|Samalas]] and [[1815 eruption of Mount Tambora|Tambora]]<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Delmas |first=Robert J. |last2=Kirchner |first2=Severine |last3=Palais |first3=Julie M. |last4=Petit |first4=Jean-Robert |date=1992 |title=1000 years of explosive volcanism recorded at the South Pole |url=http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/15461 |journal=Tellus B |language=en |volume=44 |issue=4 |pages=335–350 |doi=10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.00011.x |issn=0280-6509}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Gao |first=Chaochao |last2=Robock |first2=Alan |last3=Self |first3=Stephen |last4=Witter |first4=Jeffrey B. |last5=Steffenson |first5=J. P. |last6=Clausen |first6=Henrik Brink |last7=Siggaard-Andersen |first7=Marie-Louise |last8=Johnsen |first8=Sigfus |last9=Mayewski |first9=Paul A. |last10=Ammann |first10=Caspar |date=2006 |title=The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae eruption signal derived from multiple ice core records: Greatest volcanic sulfate event of the past 700 years |url=http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005JD006710 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research |language=en |volume=111 |issue=D12 |pages=D12107 |doi=10.1029/2005JD006710 |issn=0148-0227}}</ref>. Initial effort to constrain the date of the event concluded that 1452/53 is the year of eruption with uncertainty up to a few years<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1">{{Cite journal |last=Sigl |first=Michael |last2=McConnell |first2=Joseph R. |last3=Layman |first3=Lawrence |last4=Maselli |first4=Olivia |last5=McGwire |first5=Ken |last6=Pasteris |first6=Daniel |last7=Dahl-Jensen |first7=Dorthe |last8=Steffensen |first8=Jørgen Peder |last9=Vinther |first9=Bo |last10=Edwards |first10=Ross |last11=Mulvaney |first11=Robert |last12=Kipfstuhl |first12=Sepp |date=2013-02-16 |title=A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years: A 2000YR BIPOLAR VOLCANO RECORD |url=http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD018603 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |language=en |volume=118 |issue=3 |pages=1151–1169 |doi=10.1029/2012JD018603}}</ref>. Since 2012, highly accurate ice core chronology re-dated this massive sulfur spike to 1458 and has matched with its corresponding Greenland sulfur spike though the latter is significantly smaller.<ref name="Plummer2012" /><ref name="Cole-Dai2013" /><ref name=":1" />
Ice cores taken from both the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets contain large amounts of sulfur, indicating that the mystery eruptions were likely global events, lasting up to 7 years. These volcanic particles were distributed via the large aerosol cloud produced by the eruption.{{cn|date=November 2022}}

== Ice-core and tree-ring records ==
The sulfate deposition of this event is the largest recorded in ice cores in the last 700 years.<ref name=":0" /> The deposition however is asymmetric with much large sulfate flux in the Antartica ice cores compared to that of Greenland ice cores, indicating that the eruption probably occurred in the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.<ref name=":1" /> Sulfur isotope composition of the 1458 sulfate indicates that the eruption emitted volcanic gases directly into the stratosphere, with significant impact on atmospheric chemistry and potential consequence for global climate.<ref name="Cole-Dai2013" /> The reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection of the 1458 event estimates that about 37.5 trillion grams of sulfur was injected into stratosphere, roughly equivalent that of [[Mount Tambora|Tambora]] but 3 more times massive than the earlier 1452/53 eruption based on the same set of sulfate records.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sigl |first=Michael |last2=Toohey |first2=Matthew |last3=McConnell |first3=Joseph R. |last4=Cole-Dai |first4=Jihong |last5=Severi |first5=Mirko |date=2022-07-12 |title=Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11 500 years) from a bipolar ice-core array |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/3167/2022/ |journal=Earth System Science Data |language=en |volume=14 |issue=7 |pages=3167–3196 |doi=10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022 |issn=1866-3516}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sigl |first=Michael |last2=Toohey |first2=Matthew |last3=McConnell |first3=Joseph R. |last4=Cole-Dai |first4=Jihong |last5=Severi |first5=Mirko |date=2021-03-02 |title=HolVol: Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth for the Holocene (9500 BCE to 1900 CE) |url=https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.928646 |language=en |doi=10.1594/PANGAEA.928646}}</ref> In South Pole ice core, [[tephra]] was discovered in the sulfate layer, allowing geochemical matching to identify the source volcano of the sulfate spike if the tephra source was responsible for the sulfate spike.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hartman |first=Laura H. |last2=Kurbatov |first2=Andrei V. |last3=Winski |first3=Dominic A. |last4=Cruz-Uribe |first4=Alicia M. |last5=Davies |first5=Siwan M. |last6=Dunbar |first6=Nelia W. |last7=Iverson |first7=Nels A. |last8=Aydin |first8=Murat |last9=Fegyveresi |first9=John M. |last10=Ferris |first10=David G. |last11=Fudge |first11=T. J. |last12=Osterberg |first12=Erich C. |last13=Hargreaves |first13=Geoffrey M. |last14=Yates |first14=Martin G. |date=2019-10-08 |title=Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50939-x |journal=Scientific Reports |language=en |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=14437 |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x |issn=2045-2322}}</ref>

In the year following eruption, tree-ring Northern Hemisphere in 1459 summer registered a strong cooling of −1.0 °C and again −0.4 °C in 1460.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Esper |first=Jan |last2=Büntgen |first2=Ulf |last3=Hartl-Meier |first3=Claudia |last4=Oppenheimer |first4=Clive |last5=Schneider |first5=Lea |date=2017-05-06 |title=Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies during the 1450s period of ambiguous volcanic forcing |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1125-9 |journal=Bulletin of Volcanology |language=en |volume=79 |issue=6 |pages=41 |doi=10.1007/s00445-017-1125-9 |issn=1432-0819}}</ref>

== Source of eruption ==
While the source volcano of the sulfur spike has not been definitely identified, several candidate volcanos have been proposed. The sulfate flux distribution in the ice cores suggests that the location of the source volcano is in the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.<ref name=":1" />

=== Kuwae Caldera ===
{{Main|Kuwae}}
Kuwae caldera is a caldera responsible for the catastrophic, mid-fifteen century, volcanic eruption and disappearance of Kuwae landmass in the [[Tongoa|Tongoan]] [[folklore]]. Its exact location, however, is debated.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Garanger |first=José |url=http://books.openedition.org/sdo/859 |title=Archéologie des Nouvelles-Hébrides: Contribution à la connaissance des îles du Centre |date=1972 |publisher=Société des Océanistes |isbn=978-2-85430-054-3 |language=fr |doi=10.4000/books.sdo.859}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite journal |last=Monzier |first=Michel |last2=Robin |first2=Claude |last3=Eissen |first3=Jean-Philippe |date=1994-01-01 |title=Kuwae (≈ 1425 A.D.): the forgotten caldera |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0377027394900914 |journal=Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research |language=en |volume=59 |issue=3 |pages=207–218 |doi=10.1016/0377-0273(94)90091-4 |issn=0377-0273}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Németh |first=Károly |last2=Cronin |first2=Shane J. |last3=White |first3=James D. L. |date=2007-11-27 |title=Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion |url=https://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOGEOJ-1-7 |journal=The Open Geology Journal |volume=1 |issue=1}}</ref> Two candidates are:

* a 6 x 12 km submarine caldera between the [[Epi (island)|Epi]] and [[Tongoa|Tongoa islands]]
* South of Tongoa, exposed part of the western rim is marked by the islands of Tongoa, [[Ewose]], [[Buninga]] and [[Tongariki]]

Regardless of the precise location, radiocarbon datings of thick pyroclastic flows on Tongoa cluster around 1410–1450 AD.<ref name=":2" /> Geochemical analysis of the magma determined its sulfur-rich nature and is capable of producing the greatest amount of sulfate in the last 700 years, if caldera volume equivalent amount of magma erupted.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Witter |first=J. B. |last2=Self |first2=S. |date=2007-01-01 |title=The Kuwae (Vanuatu) eruption of AD 1452: potential magnitude and volatile release |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-006-0075-4 |journal=Bulletin of Volcanology |language=en |volume=69 |issue=3 |pages=301–318 |doi=10.1007/s00445-006-0075-4 |issn=1432-0819}}</ref>

Németh et. al. (2007), however, questioned the proposed large magnitude and intensity of the eruption, noting that pyroclastic flows are small-volume and lacking widespread fall deposits. Further evidence is needed to establish the relation between formation of large submarine caldera and the apparently small mid-fifteen century eruption preserved on land.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Németh |first=Károly |last2=Cronin |first2=Shane J. |last3=White |first3=James D. L. |date=2007-11-27 |title=Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion |url=https://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOGEOJ-1-7 |journal=The Open Geology Journal |volume=1 |issue=1}}</ref> Furthermore, geochemistry of Kuwae magma does not match with that of the tephra discovered in 1458 sulfate layer.<ref name="Hartman2019" />

A new investigation led by volcanologists and anthropologists is ongoing in order to resolve the debate around the nature of Kuwae eruption and its climate consequence.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Secrets of Kuwae begin to be revealed - CHL - ANU |url=https://chl.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/2575/secrets-kuwae-begin-be-revealed,%20/news-events/news/2575/secrets-kuwae-begin-be-revealed |access-date=2023-01-18 |website=chl.anu.edu.au |language=en}}</ref>

=== Tofua Caldera ===
Németh et. al. (2007), on the basis of a similar radiocarbon age, proposed Tofua caldera as another candidate volcano for the 1458 sulfate spike. Unpublished radiocarbon data shows that there was a large Tofua eruption, which deposited >10 cm of tephra over inhabited islands in Central Tonga around 1440–1640 AD.<ref>{{Cite journal |date=2016-06-03 |title=Volcanic Oral Traditions in Hazard Assessment and Mitigation |url=https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315425177-14/volcanic-oral-traditions-hazard-assessment-mitigation-shane-cronin-katharine-cashman |journal=Living Under the Shadow |language=en |pages=185–212 |doi=10.4324/9781315425177-14}}</ref>

=== Mount Reclus ===
The source of tephra occurred with 1458 sulfate layer in the Antartica ice core has not been definitely identified. Based on geochemical correlation, the tephra is compositionally similar to the magma of Reclus volcano.<ref name="Hartman2019" /> No known large eruption from Reclus volcano during this period.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Stern |first=Charles R. |date=2008-02-01 |title=Holocene tephrochronology record of large explosive eruptions in the southernmost Patagonian Andes |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0148-z |journal=Bulletin of Volcanology |language=en |volume=70 |issue=4 |pages=435–454 |doi=10.1007/s00445-007-0148-z |issn=1432-0819}}</ref> Hence, it is hypothesized that an eruption of small magnitude but geographically close to the ice core might have created the sulfate spike through tropospherically transported aerosol cloud.<ref name="Hartman2019" /> This, however, is inconsistent with the sulfur isotope evidence and widespread deposition of volcanic sulfate.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Abbott |first=Peter M. |last2=Plunkett |first2=Gill |last3=Corona |first3=Christophe |last4=Chellman |first4=Nathan J. |last5=McConnell |first5=Joseph R. |last6=Pilcher |first6=John R. |last7=Stoffel |first7=Markus |last8=Sigl |first8=Michael |date=2021-03-04 |title=Cryptotephra from the Icelandic Veiðivötn 1477&thinsp;CE eruption in a Greenland ice core: confirming the dating of volcanic events in the 1450s&thinsp;CE and assessing the eruption's climatic impact |url=https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/565/2021/ |journal=Climate of the Past |language=English |volume=17 |issue=2 |pages=565–585 |doi=10.5194/cp-17-565-2021 |issn=1814-9324}}</ref>


== Historical records ==
== Historical records ==
Line 16: Line 43:
* [[1815 eruption of Mount Tambora]]
* [[1815 eruption of Mount Tambora]]
* [[Ice core]]
* [[Ice core]]
* [[Kuwae]], the volcano hypothesized to be responsible for the [[1452/1453 mystery eruption]].
* [[Kuwae]], the volcano hypothesized to be responsible for the [[1458 mystery eruption|1458 sulfate spike]].
* [[Timeline of volcanism on Earth]]
* [[Timeline of volcanism on Earth]]
* [[Volcanic Explosivity Index]]
* [[Volcanic Explosivity Index]]

Revision as of 04:13, 18 January 2023

There are two large sulfate spikes caused by mystery volcanic eruptions in the mid-1400s: the 1452/1453 mystery eruption and 1458 mystery eruption.[1][2] Before 2012, the date of 1458 sulfate spike was incorrectly assigned to be 1452 because previous ice core work had poor time resolution.[2] The exact location of this eruption is uncertain, but possible candidates include the submerged caldera of Kuwae in the Coral Sea, Mount Reclus[3] and Tofua caldera[4]. The eruption is believed to have been VEI-7.[1][2][5]

Date of sulfate spike

This sulfate spike was first discovered in Antartica ice cores and is one of largest sulfur events along with that of Samalas and Tambora[6][7]. Initial effort to constrain the date of the event concluded that 1452/53 is the year of eruption with uncertainty up to a few years[7][8]. Since 2012, highly accurate ice core chronology re-dated this massive sulfur spike to 1458 and has matched with its corresponding Greenland sulfur spike though the latter is significantly smaller.[1][2][8]

Ice-core and tree-ring records

The sulfate deposition of this event is the largest recorded in ice cores in the last 700 years.[7] The deposition however is asymmetric with much large sulfate flux in the Antartica ice cores compared to that of Greenland ice cores, indicating that the eruption probably occurred in the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.[8] Sulfur isotope composition of the 1458 sulfate indicates that the eruption emitted volcanic gases directly into the stratosphere, with significant impact on atmospheric chemistry and potential consequence for global climate.[2] The reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection of the 1458 event estimates that about 37.5 trillion grams of sulfur was injected into stratosphere, roughly equivalent that of Tambora but 3 more times massive than the earlier 1452/53 eruption based on the same set of sulfate records.[9][10] In South Pole ice core, tephra was discovered in the sulfate layer, allowing geochemical matching to identify the source volcano of the sulfate spike if the tephra source was responsible for the sulfate spike.[11]

In the year following eruption, tree-ring Northern Hemisphere in 1459 summer registered a strong cooling of −1.0 °C and again −0.4 °C in 1460.[12]

Source of eruption

While the source volcano of the sulfur spike has not been definitely identified, several candidate volcanos have been proposed. The sulfate flux distribution in the ice cores suggests that the location of the source volcano is in the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.[8]

Kuwae Caldera

Main article: Kuwae

Kuwae caldera is a caldera responsible for the catastrophic, mid-fifteen century, volcanic eruption and disappearance of Kuwae landmass in the Tongoan folklore. Its exact location, however, is debated.[13][14][15] Two candidates are:

Regardless of the precise location, radiocarbon datings of thick pyroclastic flows on Tongoa cluster around 1410–1450 AD.[14] Geochemical analysis of the magma determined its sulfur-rich nature and is capable of producing the greatest amount of sulfate in the last 700 years, if caldera volume equivalent amount of magma erupted.[16]

Németh et. al. (2007), however, questioned the proposed large magnitude and intensity of the eruption, noting that pyroclastic flows are small-volume and lacking widespread fall deposits. Further evidence is needed to establish the relation between formation of large submarine caldera and the apparently small mid-fifteen century eruption preserved on land.[17] Furthermore, geochemistry of Kuwae magma does not match with that of the tephra discovered in 1458 sulfate layer.[3]

A new investigation led by volcanologists and anthropologists is ongoing in order to resolve the debate around the nature of Kuwae eruption and its climate consequence.[18]

Tofua Caldera

Németh et. al. (2007), on the basis of a similar radiocarbon age, proposed Tofua caldera as another candidate volcano for the 1458 sulfate spike. Unpublished radiocarbon data shows that there was a large Tofua eruption, which deposited >10 cm of tephra over inhabited islands in Central Tonga around 1440–1640 AD.[19]

Mount Reclus

The source of tephra occurred with 1458 sulfate layer in the Antartica ice core has not been definitely identified. Based on geochemical correlation, the tephra is compositionally similar to the magma of Reclus volcano.[3] No known large eruption from Reclus volcano during this period.[20] Hence, it is hypothesized that an eruption of small magnitude but geographically close to the ice core might have created the sulfate spike through tropospherically transported aerosol cloud.[3] This, however, is inconsistent with the sulfur isotope evidence and widespread deposition of volcanic sulfate.[21]

Historical records

Historical records, largely from Europe and Eastern Asia, report multiple years in the 1450s to 1460s with anomalous weather patterns. Smog and haze were seen in the sky and multiple records describe the sun as being blue in color and volcanic ash raining from the sky.[5] There were severe increases in precipitation and decreases in temperature. These weather and climate changes would be the result of a large aerosol cloud produced by a volcanic eruption spreading across the earth; however, medieval records of atmospheric phenomena are not always accurate.

Climate implications

The weather patterns caused by this eruption had an impact on the life of people globally. Freezing temperatures and excessive rainfall led to famine and low quality crops. The number of people who starved to death increased over these years, and the decreased quality of wine during the time period was noted in historical records. Freezing temperatures and flooding also led to death and property damage. These factors put pressure on medieval governments and negatively impacted military efforts.[5]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Plummer, Christopher T.; Curran, M. A. J.; van Ommen, Tas D.; Rasmussen, S.O.; Moy, A. D.; Vance, Tessa R.; Clausen, H. B.; Vinther, Bo M.; Mayewski, P. A. (2012-05-01). "An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the c. 1450s eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu". Climate of the Past Discussions. 8: 1567–1590. doi:10.5194/cpd-8-1567-2012.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  2. ^ a b c d e Cole-Dai, Jihong; Ferris, David G.; Lanciki, Alyson L.; Savarino, Joël; Thiemens, Mark H.; McConnell, Joseph R. (2013-07-17). "Two likely stratospheric volcanic eruptions in the 1450s C.E. found in a bipolar, subannually dated 800 year ice core record". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (14): 7459–7466. Bibcode:2013JGRD..118.7459C. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50587. S2CID 129790360.
  3. ^ a b c d Hartman, Laura H.; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; Winski, Dominic A.; Cruz-Uribe, Alicia M.; Davies, Siwan M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Iverson, Nels A.; Aydin, Murat; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David G.; Fudge, T. J.; Osterberg, Erich C.; Hargreaves, Geoffrey M.; Yates, Martin G. (8 October 2019). "Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source". Scientific Reports. 9 (1): 14437. Bibcode:2019NatSR...914437H. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 6783439. PMID 31595040.
  4. ^ Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; White, James D. L. (2007-11-27). "Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion". The Open Geology Journal. 1 (1).
  5. ^ a b c Bauch, Martin (2017), "The Day the Sun Turned Blue: A Volcanic Eruption in the Early 1460s and Its Possible Climatic Impact—A Natural Disaster Perceived Globally in the Late Middle Ages?", Historical Disaster Experiences, Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 107–138, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_6, ISBN 978-3-319-49162-2
  6. ^ Delmas, Robert J.; Kirchner, Severine; Palais, Julie M.; Petit, Jean-Robert (1992). "1000 years of explosive volcanism recorded at the South Pole". Tellus B. 44 (4): 335–350. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.00011.x. ISSN 0280-6509.
  7. ^ a b c Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Self, Stephen; Witter, Jeffrey B.; Steffenson, J. P.; Clausen, Henrik Brink; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Johnsen, Sigfus; Mayewski, Paul A.; Ammann, Caspar (2006). "The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae eruption signal derived from multiple ice core records: Greatest volcanic sulfate event of the past 700 years". Journal of Geophysical Research. 111 (D12): D12107. doi:10.1029/2005JD006710. ISSN 0148-0227.
  8. ^ a b c d Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Layman, Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McGwire, Ken; Pasteris, Daniel; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Vinther, Bo; Edwards, Ross; Mulvaney, Robert; Kipfstuhl, Sepp (2013-02-16). "A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years: A 2000YR BIPOLAR VOLCANO RECORD". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (3): 1151–1169. doi:10.1029/2012JD018603.
  9. ^ Sigl, Michael; Toohey, Matthew; McConnell, Joseph R.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Severi, Mirko (2022-07-12). "Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11 500 years) from a bipolar ice-core array". Earth System Science Data. 14 (7): 3167–3196. doi:10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022. ISSN 1866-3516.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  10. ^ Sigl, Michael; Toohey, Matthew; McConnell, Joseph R.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Severi, Mirko (2021-03-02). "HolVol: Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth for the Holocene (9500 BCE to 1900 CE)". doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.928646. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  11. ^ Hartman, Laura H.; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; Winski, Dominic A.; Cruz-Uribe, Alicia M.; Davies, Siwan M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Iverson, Nels A.; Aydin, Murat; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David G.; Fudge, T. J.; Osterberg, Erich C.; Hargreaves, Geoffrey M.; Yates, Martin G. (2019-10-08). "Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source". Scientific Reports. 9 (1): 14437. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x. ISSN 2045-2322.
  12. ^ Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Oppenheimer, Clive; Schneider, Lea (2017-05-06). "Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies during the 1450s period of ambiguous volcanic forcing". Bulletin of Volcanology. 79 (6): 41. doi:10.1007/s00445-017-1125-9. ISSN 1432-0819.
  13. ^ Garanger, José (1972). Archéologie des Nouvelles-Hébrides: Contribution à la connaissance des îles du Centre (in French). Société des Océanistes. doi:10.4000/books.sdo.859. ISBN 978-2-85430-054-3.
  14. ^ a b Monzier, Michel; Robin, Claude; Eissen, Jean-Philippe (1994-01-01). "Kuwae (≈ 1425 A.D.): the forgotten caldera". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 59 (3): 207–218. doi:10.1016/0377-0273(94)90091-4. ISSN 0377-0273.
  15. ^ Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; White, James D. L. (2007-11-27). "Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion". The Open Geology Journal. 1 (1).
  16. ^ Witter, J. B.; Self, S. (2007-01-01). "The Kuwae (Vanuatu) eruption of AD 1452: potential magnitude and volatile release". Bulletin of Volcanology. 69 (3): 301–318. doi:10.1007/s00445-006-0075-4. ISSN 1432-0819.
  17. ^ Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; White, James D. L. (2007-11-27). "Kuwae Caldera and Climate Confusion". The Open Geology Journal. 1 (1).
  18. ^ "Secrets of Kuwae begin to be revealed - CHL - ANU". chl.anu.edu.au. Retrieved 2023-01-18.
  19. ^ "Volcanic Oral Traditions in Hazard Assessment and Mitigation". Living Under the Shadow: 185–212. 2016-06-03. doi:10.4324/9781315425177-14.
  20. ^ Stern, Charles R. (2008-02-01). "Holocene tephrochronology record of large explosive eruptions in the southernmost Patagonian Andes". Bulletin of Volcanology. 70 (4): 435–454. doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0148-z. ISSN 1432-0819.
  21. ^ Abbott, Peter M.; Plunkett, Gill; Corona, Christophe; Chellman, Nathan J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pilcher, John R.; Stoffel, Markus; Sigl, Michael (2021-03-04). "Cryptotephra from the Icelandic Veiðivötn 1477 CE eruption in a Greenland ice core: confirming the dating of volcanic events in the 1450s CE and assessing the eruption's climatic impact". Climate of the Past. 17 (2): 565–585. doi:10.5194/cp-17-565-2021. ISSN 1814-9324.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
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