Finnish parliamentary election, 2015

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Finnish parliamentary election, 2015
Finland
2011 ←
19 April 2015 or earlier → 2019

All 200 seats to the Parliament
101 seats needed for a majority
  Alexander Stubb Antti Rinne Timo Soini
Leader Alexander Stubb Antti Rinne Timo Soini
Party National Coalition Social Democratic Finns
Leader since 2014 2014 1997
Last election 44 seats, 20.4% 42 seats, 19.1% 39 seats, 19.1%

  Juha Sipilä Paavo Arhinmäki Ville Niinistö
Leader Juha Sipilä Paavo Arhinmäki Ville Niinistö
Party Centre Left Alliance Green League
Leader since 2012 2009 2011
Last election 35 seats, 15.8% 14 seats, 8.1% 10 seats, 7.3%

  Carl Haglund Päivi Räsänen
Leader Carl Haglund Päivi Räsänen
Party Swedish People's Christian Democrat
Leader since 2012 2004
Last election 9 seats, 4.3% 6 seats, 4.0%

Incumbent Prime Minister

Alexander Stubb
National Coalition

The next Finnish parliamentary election will be held on 19 April 2015, unless a premature election is called. 200 members will be elected to the Finnish Parliament by the proportional D'Hondt method.

Background[edit]

Current government parties[edit]

The incumbent government is formed by a four party coalition, composed of the National Coalition Party, Social Democratic Party, Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats as well as the MP for Åland. Left Alliance and the Green League were initially also part of the governing coalition, but both left in 2014.

On 22 June 2011, the parliament elected Jyrki Katainen as prime minister by a vote of 118–72; two Left Alliance MPs voted against Katainen, for which they were formally reprimanded by the Left Alliance parliamentary group. They were subsequently expelled from the group, reducing the government majority from 126 MPs to 124. In March 2014 the Left Alliance announced that it was leaving the cabinet, citing the party's opposition to budget cuts in social welfare programs, which had been agreed to by the other five parties.[1] This reduced the government's majority to 112 MPs.

In April 2014 Jyrki Katainen announced that he would not seek another term as the chairman of the National Coalition Party. The NCP chose Alexander Stubb as its new chairman in June, and he subsequently became the new Prime Minister. In September 2014 the Green League announced that it was leaving the cabinet. The Greens were opposed to the other governing parties' decision to grant Fennovoima a licence for building a nuclear power plant in Pyhäjoki.[2] The Greens' departure cut the government's majority to 102 MPs (including the Speaker of the Parliament, who does not vote).[3]

Changes to the electoral districts[edit]

In 2013 the parliament decided to merge certain electoral districts to create larger districts: the electoral districts of Northern Savonia and Northern Karelia will be merged into a new district called Savonia-Karelia, while the electoral districts of Kymi and Southern Savonia will be merged into a new district called South-Eastern Finland.[4]

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The table uses the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if that date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm KOK SDP PS KESK VAS VIHR SFP KD Others Lead
17 Nov-12 Dec TNS Gallup 16.7 16.9 14.2 26.1 8.1 8.9 4.2 3.5 1.4 9.2
3 Nov-2 Dec Taloustutkimus 17.3 16.1 14.3 26.7 8.9 8.3 4.0 3.3 1.1 9.4
23 Nov-26 Nov Tietoykkönen 17.7 15.8 15.7 26.6 8.4 8.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 8.9
21 Nov TNS Gallup 17.4 16.4 16.2 24.5 8.0 8.3 4.3 3.6 1.3 7.1
30 Sep-28 Oct Taloustutkimus 19.4 15.2 15.1 25.5 7.9 9.1 3.6 2.7 1.5 6.1
22 Sep-16 Oct TNS Gallup 19.4 16.2 16.1 22.3 8.7 8.2 4.2 3.6 1.3 2.9
10 Oct-16 Oct Tietoykkönen 18.5 15.1 16.5 23.4 8.0 8.9 4.2 3.8 1.6 4.9
2 Sep-25 Sep Taloustutkimus 20.4 15.2 16.6 23.3 8.3 7.8 4.6 3.0 0.8 2.9
5 Aug-28 Aug Taloustutkimus 21.2 15.8 17.1 21.3 8.2 8.1 3.7 3.4 1.2 0.1
15 Jul–12 Aug TNS Gallup 22.1 14.9 15.9 19.9 9.3 8.7 4.5 3.4 1.3 2.2
1 Jul-30 Jul Taloustutkimus 21.8 13.8 16.4 20.9 9.3 8.8 3.9 3.4 1.7 0.9
2 Jun–25 Jun Taloustutkimus 20.3 14.8 17.9 19.5 9.3 9.0 4.2 3.8 1.2 0.8
26 May–11 Jun TNS Gallup 20.5 14.9 17.2 20.3 9.0 8.5 4.4 3.9 1.3 0.2
5–27 May Taloustutkimus 20.1 15.0 18.9 19.5 8.5 9.3 4.4 3.2 1.1 0.6
2–29 Apr Taloustutkimus 20.2 15.8 17.6 21.0 8.8 8.2 4.1 3.7 0.6 0.8
5 Mar–1 Apr Taloustutkimus 20.3 15.5 17.8 20.9 7.7 8.7 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.6
25 Feb–22 Mar TNS Gallup 19.5 16.3 17.2 21.5 7.5 8.9 4.3 3.5 1.3 2.0
3 Feb–4 Mar Taloustutkimus 19.4 15.5 16.9 22.8 7.7 9.0 4.2 3.4 1.1 3.4
13 Jan–8 Feb TNS Gallup 19.2 16.2 17.0 22.4 7.6 8.5 4.2 3.5 1.4 3.2
1–28 Jan Taloustutkimus 18.7 15.5 17.8 23.6 7.5 8.1 3.8 3.7 1.3 4.9
2013
27 Nov–23 Dec Taloustutkimus 19.1 15.9 17.4 23.9 7.0 8.2 3.8 3.1 1.6 4.8
19 Dec TNS Gallup 18.0 16.7 17.5 23.0 7.9 7.9 4.4 3.3 1.3 5.0
30 Oct–26 Nov Taloustutkimus 18.3 15.4 17.2 24.1 7.4 9.0 4.1 3.2 1.3 5.8
7–29 Oct Taloustutkimus 18.1 16.9 17.4 23.2 7.6 8.4 3.9 3.5 1.0 5.1
23 Oct TNS Gallup 18.2 16.2 18.9 21.8 7.7 8.3 4.4 3.4 1.1 2.9
9 Sep–2 Oct Taloustutkimus 18.4 15.3 18.8 22.6 7.2 9.3 3.9 3.3 1.2 3.8
6 Aug–4 Sep Taloustutkimus 18.3 15.0 19.3 23.8 7.7 8.4 3.8 2.8 0.9 4.5
15 Aug TNS Gallup 18.7 16.3 18.7 21.9 7.3 8.2 4.2 3.5 1.2 3.2
2–31 Jul Taloustutkimus 18.8 15.6 18.0 22.8 7.2 8.4 4.4 3.6 1.2 4.0
29 May–26 Jun Taloustutkimus 18.4 16.1 18.6 21.5 7.5 9.3 4.0 3.5 1.1 2.9
29 Apr–28 May Taloustutkimus 19.2 16.5 17.4 21.7 8.0 8.0 4.1 3.8 1.3 2.5
4–25 Apr Taloustutkimus 19.2 16.2 18.6 19.4 9.0 9.1 4.2 3.2 1.1 0.2
11–27 Mar Taloustutkimus 19.8 18.0 18.4 18.3 8.5 9.0 4.1 3.1 0.8 1.4
11 Feb–7 Mar Taloustutkimus 20.8 18.2 18.1 17.2 8.2 8.7 4.3 3.2 1.3 2.6
7–29 Jan Taloustutkimus 21.9 18.7 17.7 17.1 7.9 8.9 3.9 3.1 0.8 3.2
2012
3–27 Dec Taloustutkimus 21.0 17.9 18.0 17.8 7.9 8.7 4.3 3.4 1.0 3.0
1–24 Oct Taloustutkimus 20.9 18.5 15.3 17.3 8.5 9.1 3.9 4.0 2.5 2.4
3–19 Sep Taloustutkimus 21.5 19.9 17.2 15.9 7.8 8.9 4.3 3.2 1.3 1.6
7–29 Aug Taloustutkimus 22.7 18.7 15.8 16.6 8.2 9.4 4.3 3.2 1.1 4.0
3 Jul–1 Aug Taloustutkimus 20.8 20.3 17.5 15.5 8.0 8.5 4.4 3.7 1.3 0.5
4–27 Jun Taloustutkimus 21.6 20.8 15.6 16.5 7.5 8.2 3.9 3.7 2.2 0.8
7–31 May Taloustutkimus 21.7 20.5 15.9 16.7 7.7 8.8 3.7 3.6 1.4 1.2
3–26 Apr Taloustutkimus 22.6 19.1 14.1 16.4 8.9 10.4 3.7 3.2 1.6 3.5
5–29 Mar Taloustutkimus 22.6 17.3 15.8 16.7 8.1 11.0 3.5 3.7 1.3 5.3
30 Jan–23 Feb Taloustutkimus 22.1 16.0 16.1 17.7 7.9 11.4 4.1 3.5 1.3 4.4
2–26 Jan Taloustutkimus 23.1 16.3 17.4 15.6 9.0 9.6 3.8 4.1 1.1 5.8
2011
7–28 Dec Taloustutkimus 22.7 16.4 19.9 16.2 8.5 7.6 3.9 3.6 1.2 2.8
9–17 Nov Taloustutkimus 24.3 17.6 19.9 13.9 7.0 7.9 4.1 3.9 1.4 4.4
10 Oct–3 Nov Taloustutkimus 24.4 17.1 21.4 13.1 7.4 7.7 4.1 3.7 1.1 3.0
17 Apr 2011 Election Results 20.4 19.1 19.1 15.8 8.1 7.3 4.3 4.0 2.3 1.3

References[edit]

  1. ^ Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta YLE, 25 March 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  2. ^ Fennovoiman periaatepäätös hyväksyttiin, vihreät jättää hallituksen Helsingin Sanomat, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  3. ^ Vihreät ulos hallituksesta – "Mieli on raskas ja pettynyt" YLE, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  4. ^ Vaalipiiriuudistus lyötiin lukkoon eduskunnassa YLE, 6 March 2013, accessed 18 September 2014.