Finnish parliamentary election, 2015

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Finnish parliamentary election, 2015
Finland
2011 ←
19 April 2015 → 2019

All 200 seats to the Parliament
101 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 70.1%
  First party Second party Third party
  Juha Sipilä Timo Soini Alexander Stubb
Leader Juha Sipilä Timo Soini Alexander Stubb
Party Centre Finns National Coalition
Leader since 2012 1997 2014
Last election 35 seats, 15.8% 39 seats, 19.1% 44 seats, 20.4%
Seats won 49 38 37
Seat change Increase 14 Decrease 1 Decrease 7
Popular vote 626,218 524,054 540,212
Percentage 21.1% 17.7% 18.2%
Swing Increase 5.3% Decrease 1.4% Decrease 2.2%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Antti Rinne Ville Niinistö Paavo Arhinmäki
Leader Antti Rinne Ville Niinistö Paavo Arhinmäki
Party Social Democratic Green League Left Alliance
Leader since 2014 2011 2009
Last election 42 seats, 19.1% 10 seats, 7.3% 14 seats, 8.1%
Seats won 34 15 12
Seat change Decrease 8 Increase 5 Decrease 2
Popular vote 490,102 253,102 211,702
Percentage 16.5% 8.5% 7.1%
Swing Decrease 2.6% Increase 1.3% Decrease 1.0%

  Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party
  Carl Haglund Päivi Räsänen
Leader Carl Haglund Päivi Räsänen Mats Löfström
Party Swedish People's Christian Democrat Åland Coalition
Leader since 2012 2004
Last election 9 seats, 4.3% 6 seats, 4.0% 1 seat, 0.3%
Seats won 9 5 1
Seat change Steady 0 Decrease 1 Steady 0
Popular vote 144,802 105,134 10,910
Percentage 4.9% 3.5% 0.4%
Swing Increase 0.6% Decrease 0.5% Steady 0.0%

Prime Minister before election

Alexander Stubb
National Coalition

Elected Prime Minister

Juha Sipilä
Centre

The 2015 Finnish parliamentary election was held on 19 April 2015,[1] with advance voting from 8 to 14 April.[2] The 200 members of the Finnish Parliament were elected with the proportional D'Hondt method.

There were 4,463,333 people entitled to vote in Finland and abroad.[3]

Background[edit]

Previous government parties[edit]

The incumbent government was formed by a four party coalition, composed of the National Coalition Party, Social Democratic Party, Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats as well as the MP for Åland. Left Alliance and the Green League were initially also part of the governing coalition, but both left in 2014.

On 22 June 2011, the parliament elected Jyrki Katainen as prime minister by a vote of 118–72; two Left Alliance MPs voted against Katainen, for which they were formally reprimanded by the Left Alliance parliamentary group. They were subsequently expelled from the group, reducing the government majority from 126 MPs to 124. In March 2014 the Left Alliance announced that it was leaving the cabinet, citing the party's opposition to budget cuts in social welfare programs, which had been agreed to by the other five parties.[4] This reduced the government's majority to 112 MPs.

In April 2014 Jyrki Katainen announced that he would not seek another term as the chairman of the National Coalition Party. The NCP chose Alexander Stubb as its new chairman in June, and he subsequently became the new Prime Minister. In September 2014 the Green League announced that it was leaving the cabinet. The Greens were opposed to the other governing parties' decision to grant Fennovoima a licence for building a nuclear power plant in Pyhäjoki.[5] The Greens' departure cut the government's majority to 102 MPs (including the Speaker of the Parliament, who does not vote).[6]

Changes to the electoral districts[edit]

Electoral districts in the 2015 election

In 2013 the parliament decided to merge certain electoral districts to create larger districts: the electoral districts of Northern Savonia and North Karelia have been merged into a new district called Savonia-Karelia, while the electoral districts of Kymi and Southern Savonia have been merged into a new district called South-Eastern Finland.[7]

Electoral district Seats
01 Helsinki 22
02 Uusimaa 35
03 Finland Proper 17
04 Satakunta 8
05 Åland 1
06 Tavastia 14
07 Pirkanmaa 19
08 South-East Finland 17
09 Savonia-Karelia 16
10 Vaasa 16
11 Central Finland 10
12 Oulu 18
13 Lapland 7

Opinion polling[edit]

Taloustutkimus opinion polling since 2011 election.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The table uses the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if that date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm KOK SDP PS KESK VAS VIHR SFP KD Others Lead
23 Mar–15 Apr Taloustutkimus 16.9 15.1 16.7 24.0 8.3 8.8 4.6 3.5 2.0 7.1
8 Apr–12 Apr TNS Gallup 17.0 17.0 16.2 23.0 8.5 8.1 4.6 3.7 1.9 6.0
27 Mar–1 Apr Tietoykkönen 16.2 17.0 16.6 23.5 8.4 8.1 4.3 4.1 1.8 6.5
25 Feb–19 Mar Taloustutkimus 16.1 16.2 14.6 24.9 8.5 8.9 4.5 3.9 2.4 8.7
16 Feb–12 Mar TNS Gallup 16.8 16.9 15.2 24.7 8.4 8.6 4.2 3.3 1.9 7.8
5–11 Mar Tietoykkönen 17.3 16.4 16.8 23.5 8.3 8.2 4.1 3.6 1.7 6.2
2–24 Feb Taloustutkimus 16.2 16.8 15.4 24.9 8.8 8.8 4.0 3.3 1.8 8.1
19 Jan–12 Feb TNS Gallup 16.9 17.1 14.1 26.2 8.5 8.3 4.2 3.2 1.5 9.3
28 Jan-3 Feb Tietoykkönen 17.8 16.5 15.3 25.4 8.2 7.8 4.0 3.6 1.4 7.6
29 Dec–27 Jan Taloustutkimus 16.3 17.2 14.8 26.0 8.2 8.3 4.2 3.5 1.5 8.8
15 Dec–15 Jan TNS Gallup 17.2 16.5 14.5 25.9 8.8 8.4 4.1 3.3 1.3 8.7
2014
3–27 Dec Taloustutkimus 17.1 15.3 13.3 26.8 8.9 9.4 3.7 3.9 1.7 9.7
17 Nov-12 Dec TNS Gallup 16.7 16.9 14.2 26.1 8.1 8.9 4.2 3.5 1.4 9.2
3 Nov-2 Dec Taloustutkimus 17.3 16.1 14.3 26.7 8.9 8.3 4.0 3.3 1.1 9.4
23 Nov-26 Nov Tietoykkönen 17.7 15.8 15.7 26.6 8.4 8.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 8.9
21 Nov TNS Gallup 17.4 16.4 16.2 24.5 8.0 8.3 4.3 3.6 1.3 7.1
30 Sep-28 Oct Taloustutkimus 19.4 15.2 15.1 25.5 7.9 9.1 3.6 2.7 1.5 6.1
22 Sep-16 Oct TNS Gallup 19.4 16.2 16.1 22.3 8.7 8.2 4.2 3.6 1.3 2.9
10 Oct-16 Oct Tietoykkönen 18.5 15.1 16.5 23.4 8.0 8.9 4.2 3.8 1.6 4.9
2 Sep-25 Sep Taloustutkimus 20.4 15.2 16.6 23.3 8.3 7.8 4.6 3.0 0.8 2.9
21 Aug-26 Aug Tietoykkönen 20.8 14.7 16.0 21.3 9.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.7 0.5
5 Aug-28 Aug Taloustutkimus 21.2 15.8 17.1 21.3 8.2 8.1 3.7 3.4 1.2 0.1
15 Jul–12 Aug TNS Gallup 22.1 14.9 15.9 19.9 9.3 8.7 4.5 3.4 1.3 2.2
1 Jul-30 Jul Taloustutkimus 21.8 13.8 16.4 20.9 9.3 8.8 3.9 3.4 1.7 0.9
2 Jun–25 Jun Taloustutkimus 20.3 14.8 17.9 19.5 9.3 9.0 4.2 3.8 1.2 0.8
26 May–11 Jun TNS Gallup 20.5 14.9 17.2 20.3 9.0 8.5 4.4 3.9 1.3 0.2
5–27 May Taloustutkimus 20.1 15.0 18.9 19.5 8.5 9.3 4.4 3.2 1.1 0.6
2–29 Apr Taloustutkimus 20.2 15.8 17.6 21.0 8.8 8.2 4.1 3.7 0.6 0.8
5 Mar–1 Apr Taloustutkimus 20.3 15.5 17.8 20.9 7.7 8.7 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.6
25 Feb–22 Mar TNS Gallup 19.5 16.3 17.2 21.5 7.5 8.9 4.3 3.5 1.3 2.0
3 Feb–4 Mar Taloustutkimus 19.4 15.5 16.9 22.8 7.7 9.0 4.2 3.4 1.1 3.4
13 Jan–8 Feb TNS Gallup 19.2 16.2 17.0 22.4 7.6 8.5 4.2 3.5 1.4 3.2
1–28 Jan Taloustutkimus 18.7 15.5 17.8 23.6 7.5 8.1 3.8 3.7 1.3 4.9
2013
27 Nov–23 Dec Taloustutkimus 19.1 15.9 17.4 23.9 7.0 8.2 3.8 3.1 1.6 4.8
19 Dec TNS Gallup 18.0 16.7 17.5 23.0 7.9 7.9 4.4 3.3 1.3 5.0
30 Oct–26 Nov Taloustutkimus 18.3 15.4 17.2 24.1 7.4 9.0 4.1 3.2 1.3 5.8
7–29 Oct Taloustutkimus 18.1 16.9 17.4 23.2 7.6 8.4 3.9 3.5 1.0 5.1
23 Oct TNS Gallup 18.2 16.2 18.9 21.8 7.7 8.3 4.4 3.4 1.1 2.9
9 Sep–2 Oct Taloustutkimus 18.4 15.3 18.8 22.6 7.2 9.3 3.9 3.3 1.2 3.8
6 Aug–4 Sep Taloustutkimus 18.3 15.0 19.3 23.8 7.7 8.4 3.8 2.8 0.9 4.5
15 Aug TNS Gallup 18.7 16.3 18.7 21.9 7.3 8.2 4.2 3.5 1.2 3.2
2–31 Jul Taloustutkimus 18.8 15.6 18.0 22.8 7.2 8.4 4.4 3.6 1.2 4.0
29 May–26 Jun Taloustutkimus 18.4 16.1 18.6 21.5 7.5 9.3 4.0 3.5 1.1 2.9
29 Apr–28 May Taloustutkimus 19.2 16.5 17.4 21.7 8.0 8.0 4.1 3.8 1.3 2.5
4–25 Apr Taloustutkimus 19.2 16.2 18.6 19.4 9.0 9.1 4.2 3.2 1.1 0.2
11–27 Mar Taloustutkimus 19.8 18.0 18.4 18.3 8.5 9.0 4.1 3.1 0.8 1.4
11 Feb–7 Mar Taloustutkimus 20.8 18.2 18.1 17.2 8.2 8.7 4.3 3.2 1.3 2.6
7–29 Jan Taloustutkimus 21.9 18.7 17.7 17.1 7.9 8.9 3.9 3.1 0.8 3.2
2012
3–27 Dec Taloustutkimus 21.0 17.9 18.0 17.8 7.9 8.7 4.3 3.4 1.0 3.0
1–24 Oct Taloustutkimus 20.9 18.5 15.3 17.3 8.5 9.1 3.9 4.0 2.5 2.4
3–19 Sep Taloustutkimus 21.5 19.9 17.2 15.9 7.8 8.9 4.3 3.2 1.3 1.6
7–29 Aug Taloustutkimus 22.7 18.7 15.8 16.6 8.2 9.4 4.3 3.2 1.1 4.0
3 Jul–1 Aug Taloustutkimus 20.8 20.3 17.5 15.5 8.0 8.5 4.4 3.7 1.3 0.5
4–27 Jun Taloustutkimus 21.6 20.8 15.6 16.5 7.5 8.2 3.9 3.7 2.2 0.8
7–31 May Taloustutkimus 21.7 20.5 15.9 16.7 7.7 8.8 3.7 3.6 1.4 1.2
3–26 Apr Taloustutkimus 22.6 19.1 14.1 16.4 8.9 10.4 3.7 3.2 1.6 3.5
5–29 Mar Taloustutkimus 22.6 17.3 15.8 16.7 8.1 11.0 3.5 3.7 1.3 5.3
30 Jan–23 Feb Taloustutkimus 22.1 16.0 16.1 17.7 7.9 11.4 4.1 3.5 1.3 4.4
2–26 Jan Taloustutkimus 23.1 16.3 17.4 15.6 9.0 9.6 3.8 4.1 1.1 5.8
2011
7–28 Dec Taloustutkimus 22.7 16.4 19.9 16.2 8.5 7.6 3.9 3.6 1.2 2.8
9–17 Nov Taloustutkimus 24.3 17.6 19.9 13.9 7.0 7.9 4.1 3.9 1.4 4.4
10 Oct–3 Nov Taloustutkimus 24.4 17.1 21.4 13.1 7.4 7.7 4.1 3.7 1.1 3.0
15 Aug–13 Sep Taloustutkimus 23.7 18.6 21.1 12.6 8.0 7.4 3.8 3.6 1.3 2.6
5 Jul–10 Aug Taloustutkimus 21.4 19.8 22.0 13.2 7.6 7.4 3.9 3.4 1.3 0.6
6–29 Jun Taloustutkimus 21.1 18.1 23.0 13.8 8.0 7.2 4.1 3.1 1.6 1.9
9–31 May Taloustutkimus 21.5 18.8 20.6 14.3 7.7 7.6 4.3 3.8 1.4 0.9
17 Apr 2011 Election Results 20.4 19.1 19.1 15.8 8.1 7.3 4.3 4.0 2.3 1.3

Seats[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 101 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Finnish Parliament.

101 seats needed for majority
Date Polling Firm KOK SDP PS KESK VAS VIHR SFP KD Others
19 Apr 2015 ScenariPolitici[note 1] 36 34 35 51 15 15 8 5 1
21 Mar 2015 Accuscore[note 2] 34 35 36 53 16 14 9 2 1
3 Nov 2014–19 Mar 2015 Taloustutkimus[note 3] 33 35 31 56 17 15 8 4 1
14 Mar 2015 Accuscore 34 34 36 55 16 14 8 2 1
26 Feb 2015 Accuscore 34 34 36 56 16 14 8 1 1
21 Feb 2015 Accuscore 35 34 35 57 15 14 8 1 1
23 Jan 2015 Accuscore 35 33 36 56 15 15 8 1 1
2 Jun–2 Dec 2014 Taloustutkimus 42 31 37 50 17 12 8 2 1

Results[edit]

Largest party by municipality:
  Centre Party
  Finns Party
  National Coalition Party
  Social Democratic Party
  Left Alliance
  Swedish People's Party/Åland Coalition
  Christian Democrats
Party Votes % Seats +/–
Centre Party 626,218 21.10 49 +14
Finns Party 524,054 17.65 38 –1
National Coalition Party 540,212 18.20 37 –7
Social Democratic Party 490,102 16.51 34 –8
Green League 253,102 8.53 15 +5
Left Alliance 211,702 7.13 12 –2
Swedish People's Party of Finland 144,802 4.88 9 0
Christian Democrats 105,134 3.54 5 –1
Åland Coalition 10,910 0.37 1 0
Pirate Party 25,086 0.85 0 0
Independence Party 13,638 0.46 0 0
Communist Party 7,529 0.25 0 0
Change 2011 7,442 0.25 0 0
Pirkanmaa Joint List 2,469 0.08 0 New
Liberals for Åland 1,277 0.04 0 0
Communist Workers' Party 1,100 0.04 0 0
Workers' Party 984 0.03 0 0
For the Poor 623 0.02 0 0
Independents 2,075 0.07 0 0
Total 2,968,459 100 200 0
Valid votes 2,968,459 99.48
Invalid/blank votes 15,397 0.52
Total votes cast 2,983,856 100
Registered voters in Finland/turnout in Finland 4,221,237 70.1
Registered voters overall/turnout overall 4,463,333 66.9
Source: Ministry of Justice, YLE

Government formation[edit]

As the leader of the largest party, Juha Sipilä of Centre was tasked with forming the new government coalition. In early May Sipilä announced that he will seek to form a right-leaning coalition consisting of the three largest parties – the Centre Party, the Finns Party and the National Coalition Party.[8]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Counted by ScenariPolitici, but based on various polls by different polling firms. Åland's MP is the other.
  2. ^ Counted by Accuscore, but based on various polls by different polling firms. Åland's MP is the other.
  3. ^ Not a single poll, but based on five separate Taloustutkimus polls. Åland's MP is the other.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Finnish Parliamentary Elections 2015" (PDF). vaalit.fi. Retrieved 18 April 2015. 
  2. ^ "Advance voting begins ahead of parliamentary elections". yle.fi. Yle News English. 8 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015. 
  3. ^ "People entitled to vote". vaalit.fi. Retrieved 18 April 2015. 
  4. ^ Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta YLE, 25 March 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  5. ^ Fennovoiman periaatepäätös hyväksyttiin, vihreät jättää hallituksen Helsingin Sanomat, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  6. ^ Vihreät ulos hallituksesta – "Mieli on raskas ja pettynyt" YLE, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
  7. ^ Vaalipiiriuudistus lyötiin lukkoon eduskunnassa YLE, 6 March 2013, accessed 18 September 2014.
  8. ^ Sipilä opts for right-leaning government, YLE News 7 May 2015, accessed 7 May 2015.

External links[edit]

Media related to Parliamentary elections in Finland, 2015 at Wikimedia Commons