Climate Forecast Applications Network: Difference between revisions

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-{{short description|Developer of weather and climate forecast tools and services provider}}
-'''Climate Forecast Applications Network''' (CFAN) is a company that develops [[weather]] and [[climate]] forecast tools, and provides research and consulting services, to manage weather and climate risks. CFAN was started in 2006 by [[Judith Curry]] and [[Peter J. Webster|Peter Webster]] in [[Georgia Tech]]’s Enterprise Innovation Institute [[VentureLab]] program.
-Homepage:
-https://www.cfanclimate.net/
-https://www.cfanclimate.net/about
-Location: Reno, NV
-https://www.cfanclimate.net/contact-information
-== Background ==
-The project that launched CFAN was Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB).<ref>Webster, P et al. (2010) Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/BAMS_Webster_etal_2010.pdf</ref> In 1998, 60% of [[Floods in Bangladesh|Bangladesh was inundated]] for over three months as the [[Brahmaputra River]] and [[Ganges]] flooded simultaneously, with devastating impacts. USAID asked Webster if it was possible to forecast the arrival of floods with sufficient lead-time to allow remedial actions to be taken. Prior to this time, floods would arrive unheralded often with devastation and loss. A 1-10 day hydrological forecast model was developed in 2000, which became operational in 2003. The prediction scheme continues to be used in Bangladesh through the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) based in Bangkok, Thailand. Following three years of summer floods in Pakistan, a more advanced scheme was developed for the Indus Valley but has not been used by Pakistan authorities.<ref>What Pakistan can do to improve its flood management, by Khurram Husain, Herald, November 29, 2016 http://herald.dawn.com/news/1152876</ref> Webster has continued to call for improved weather forecasts for South Asia, particularly in context of [[Cyclone Nargis]] that struck Myanmar<ref>Bangladesh's Example for a Post-Nargis World, by Andrew Freedman Washington Post, May 14, 2008 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/tropical_cyclone_nargis_which.html</ref> and the storm surge from [[Super Typhoon Haiyan]].
-CFAN was called a "notable example" for flood early warning processes, and their system was praised in terms of effectiveness and cost.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=U_ZeDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA245&dq=%22climate+forecast+applications+network%22&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiNlPSJp6fnAhXvmeAKHQk9BSAQ6AEwAnoECAAQAg#v=onepage&q=%22climate%20forecast%20applications%20network%22&f=false|title=Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting|last=Schumann|first=Guy J.-P.|last2=Bates|first2=Paul D.|last3=Apel|first3=Heiko|last4=Aronica|first4=Giuseppe T.|date=2018-07-18|publisher=John Wiley & Sons|isbn=978-1-119-21786-2|language=en}}</ref> Their probabilistic forecasts are made available online for customers, and can be used for operational and disaster management.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JhLHBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA423&dq=%22climate+forecast+applications+network%22&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiNlPSJp6fnAhXvmeAKHQk9BSAQ6AEwA3oECAYQAg#v=onepage&q=%22climate%20forecast%20applications%20network%22&f=false|title=Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change|last=Mohanty|first=U. C.|last2=Mohapatra|first2=M.|last3=Singh|first3=O. P.|last4=Bandyopadhyay|first4=B. K.|last5=Rathore|first5=L. S.|date=2013-10-12|publisher=Springer Science & Business Media|isbn=978-94-007-7720-0|language=en}}</ref> They were cited as an example for institutional arrangement of probabilistic forecasts<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=B3IlBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA170&dq=%22climate+forecast+application+network%22&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiig9zQqqfnAhXhmeAKHTl4C5EQ6AEwAHoECAUQAg#v=onepage&q=%22climate%20forecast%20application%20network%22&f=false|title=Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change|last=Singh|first=Ashbindu|last2=Zommers|first2=Zinta|date=2014-05-12|publisher=Springer|isbn=978-94-017-8598-3|language=en}}</ref> with some detail given on processes used.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ttyoBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA423&dq=%22climate+forecast+application+network%22&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiig9zQqqfnAhXhmeAKHTl4C5EQ6AEwAXoECAYQAg#v=onepage&q=CFAN&f=false|title=Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective|last=Adams|first=Thomas E.|last2=Pagano|first2=Thomas C.|date=2016-04-04|publisher=Academic Press|isbn=978-0-12-801859-0|language=en}}</ref>
-A number of scholarly publications have been published by CFAN staff or referring to CFAN.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Lewis|first=Nicholas|last2=Curry|first2=Judith|date=2018-04-23|title=The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity|url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0667.1|journal=Journal of Climate|volume=31|issue=15|pages=6051–6071|doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1|issn=0894-8755}}</ref><ref>{{Citation|last=Fakhruddin|first=S. H. M.|title=Applications of Medium Range Probabilistic Flood Forecast for Societal Benefits: Lessons Learnt from Bangladesh|date=2014|url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3_9|work=Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change|pages=167–183|editor-last=Singh|editor-first=Ashbindu|publisher=Springer Netherlands|language=en|doi=10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3_9|isbn=978-94-017-8598-3|access-date=2020-01-28|editor2-last=Zommers|editor2-first=Zinta}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=A.R.SUBBIAH AND S.H.M. FAKHRUDDIN|first=|date=|title=LONG LEAD CLIMATE FORECAST APPLICATION TO BENEFIT SOCIETY: EXPERIENCES OF 2007 BANGLADESH FLOODS|url=https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bapon_Fakhruddin/publication/230642132_LONG_LEAD_CLIMATE_FORECAST_APPLICATION_TO_BENEFIT_SOCIETY_EXPERIENCES_OF_2007_BANGLADESH_FLOODS/links/0912f5025496671463000000/LONG-LEAD-CLIMATE-FORECAST-APPLICATION-TO-BENEFIT-SOCIETY-EXPERIENCES-OF-2007-BANGLADESH-FLOODS.pdf|journal=|volume=|pages=8|via=Researchgate.net}}</ref><ref>{{Citation|last=Jiang|first=Y.|title=Chapter 14 - A Simple Streamflow Forecasting Scheme for the Ganges Basin|date=2016-01-01|url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128018842000153|work=Flood Forecasting|pages=399–420|editor-last=Adams|editor-first=Thomas E.|publisher=Academic Press|language=en|isbn=978-0-12-801884-2|access-date=2020-01-28|last2=Palash|first2=W.|last3=Akanda|first3=A. S.|last4=Small|first4=D. L.|last5=Islam|first5=S.|editor2-last=Pagano|editor2-first=Thomas C.}}</ref>
-== History ==
-In 2011, CFAN's President, Judith Curry was interviewed about forecasts of Hurricane Irene by Seth Borenstein and Christine Armario. They wrote Irene was a type of storm off Africa that is simpler to forecast accurately, according to Georgia Tech meteorology professor Judith Curry, who does private forecasts with her firm Climate Forecast Applications Network.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://phys.org/news/2011-08-irene-track.html|title=Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind|website=phys.org|language=en-us|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.southcoasttoday.com/article/20110829/NEWS/108290309|title=Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind|last=ARMARIO|first=SETH BORENSTEIN and CHRISTINE|website=southcoasttoday.com|language=en|access-date=2020-01-29}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.indianapolisrecorder.com/news/national/article_27360fa8-d254-11e0-a74d-001cc4c03286.html|title=Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind|last=Press|first=SETH BORENSTEIN and CHRISTINE ARMARIO Associated|website=Indianapolis Recorder Newspaper|language=en|access-date=2020-01-29}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.news-herald.com/news/irene-forecasts-on-track-not-up-to-speed-on-wind/article_d732fd2b-15e1-54b2-beed-87e0f44fed6b.html|title=Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind|last=Armario|first=Seth Borenstein and Christine|website=The News-Herald|language=en|access-date=2020-01-29}}</ref>
-In 2013, an article in Phys.org and at Georgia Tech said after the 1998 floods in Bangladesh, Professor Peter Webster and associates at Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) created a partnership with the Bangladeshi government and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to develop a flood forecasting system, which has been in place since 2004. CFAN was started in 2006 under Georgia Tech's Enterprise Innovation Institute VentureLab Program. The company uses the Institute's weather and climate research to improve predictions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://phys.org/news/2013-01-nations.html|title=Improving flood predictions in developing nations|website=phys.org|language=en-us|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.news.gatech.edu/2013/01/08/improving-flood-predictions-developing-nations|title=Improving Flood Predictions in Developing Nations|website=www.news.gatech.edu|access-date=2020-01-29}}</ref>
-In 2013, co-founder Peter Webster wrote an article in Nature about forecasts and models, wrote, "The need for a rapid forecasting and warning system in Bangladesh became apparent following the 1998 floods. The ECMWF, the Bangladeshi government and my research group therefore developed a 1–10-day flood-forecasting system and created the Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) to distribute it. This system was first used experimentally in 2004 and became operational in 2007. The basic science was developed with support from the US National Science Foundation, and implementation by the CFAN was funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the humanitarian agency CARE."<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Webster|first=Peter J.|date=January 2013|title=Improve weather forecasts for the developing world|url=https://www.nature.com/articles/493017a|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=493|issue=7430|pages=17–19|doi=10.1038/493017a|issn=1476-4687}}</ref>
-In 2017, Chelsea Harvey in a Special to The Washington Post republished in Stars and Stripes wrote, "A scientist's job is to continually challenge his/her own biases and ask 'How could I be wrong?'" Judith Curry, president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said in testimony to Congress. <ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.stripes.com/news/us/experts-call-for-creation-of-red-teams-to-challenge-climate-science-1.461201|title=Experts call for creation of 'red teams' to challenge climate science|website=Stars and Stripes|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref>
-In December 2017, the Nevada-based Climate Forecast Applications Network issued a forecast calling for an above-normal 2018 hurricane season, but not based on El Nino or La Nina. Kimberly Miller of Cox Newspapers said Judith Curry, President of CFAN, cautioned against considering a forecast to be 100 percent accurate.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.wral.com/outlook-calls-for-active-2018-storm-season/17215734/|title=Outlook calls for active 2018 storm season :|last=WRAL|date=2017-12-27|website=WRAL.com|language=en|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref>
-In 2018, regarding International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) predictions, Adrian Brune of The Daily Dose wrote that Judith Curry, founder of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said IRI’s seasonal forecasting methods are several levels below state of the art.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.ozy.com/the-new-and-the-next/severe-weather-ahead-shes-predicting-the-next-climate-crisis/85664|title=Severe Weather Ahead: She's Predicting the Next Climate Crisis|last=Brune|first=Adrian|date=2018-05-06|website=OZY|language=en-US|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref>
-In 2018, Charlie Hutcherson of SurfLine included CFAN's predictions in an article on 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/early-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-released-colorado-state-below-above-average-activity/22193|title=Early 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released|date=2018-04-05|website=Surfline|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref>
-In 2019, Nedra Rhone of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote Judith Curry, president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said recent elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic is comparable to a period in the 1930s to 1950s, with some of the worst landfalls, and "Since 1995, we have been in the active phase of the Atlantic Hurricane Cycle."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ajc.com/weather/hurricanes/how-bad-might-atlantic-hurricane-season-this-year/V0fJM5UaQim7Xxj0FpQn4L/|title=How bad might Atlantic hurricane season be this year?|last=Nedra Rhone|first=The Atlanta Journal-Constitution|website=ajc|language=English|access-date=2020-01-28}}</ref>
-== References ==
-{{Reflist}}