2023 Madeiran regional election

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Next Madeiran regional elections
← 2019 No later than October 2023
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
PS
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Sérgio Gonçalves
Party PSD / CDS–PP PS
Leader since 10 January 2015[a] 13 March 2022
Last election 24 seats, 45.2%[b] 19 seats, 35.8%
Current seats 24 19
 
JPP
Leader Élvio Sousa Edgar Silva
Party JPP CDU
Leader since 27 January 2015 1996
Last election 3 seats, 5.5% 1 seats, 1.8%
Current seats 3 1
Incumbent President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD



A regional election will be held in Madeira no later than October 2023, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

The current president, Miguel Albuquerque from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently leading a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, and will defend the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in the islands since 1976. The PSD and CDS–PP will contest the election in a joint coalition.[1]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[2]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name Ideology Leader 2019 result
Votes (%) Seats
PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 39.4%
21 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy Sérgio Gonçalves[3] 35.8%
19 / 47
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular 		Conservatism Rui Barreto 5.8%
3 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo 		Centrism Élvio Sousa 5.5%
3 / 47
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism Edgar Silva 1.8%
[c]
1 / 47

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Polling

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD PS CDS–PP JPP CDU BE PAN IL CH PSDCDS–PP O Lead
Aximage[d][e] 14–26 Oct 2022 601 ? — 26.6 — 9.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.3 2.7 54.0 2.9 27.4
51.5 25.1 5.2 8.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 2.0 2.6 — 2.7 26.4
Aximage 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 414 65.9 — 18.6 — 10.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 3.3 4.1 50.1 8.5 31.5
52.6 17.3 1.9 9.2 1.7 1.9 1.1 2.5 3.2 — 8.6 35.3
2022 legislative elections 30 Jan 2022 — 49.6 — 31.5 — 6.9 2.0 3.2 1.6 3.3 6.1 39.8 5.2 8.3
2021 local elections 26 Sep 2021 — 54.6 43.0 29.5 3.4 10.0 2.0 0.0 — 1.2 2.5 — 8.4 13.5
Aximage 5–8 Jun 2020 415 ? 42.2 27.5 2.3 — 2.1 2.1 — — — — 23.8 14.7
2019 legislative election 6 Oct 2019 — 50.3 37.2 33.4 6.1 5.5 2.1 5.2 1.8 0.7 0.7 — 7.4 3.8
2019 regional election 22 Sep 2019 — 55.5 39.4
21 		35.8
19 		5.8
3 		5.5
3 		1.8
1 		1.7
0 		1.5
0 		0.5
0 		0.4
0 		— 7.6
0 		3.6
Hypothetical polling

Paulo Cafôfo as PS leader

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD CDS–PP JPP CDU BE PAN IL CH PSDCDS–PP O Lead
Aximage 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 414 65.9 — 18.6 — 11.4 1.2 2.8 1.6 3.6 3.5 48.1 9.2 29.5
48.3 20.6 2.4 10.7 1.7 1.9 1.1 2.2 3.5 — 7.6 27.7

See also

Notes

  1. ^ As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The leader of the Madeira People's Party (CDS–PP) is the Regional Secretary for Economic Affairs Rui Barreto.
  2. ^ Sum of votes and seats of the PSD and the CDS–PP in the 2019 election. PSD: 39.4%, 21 seats; CDS–PP: 5.8%, 3 seats.
  3. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2019 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 1.8% of the vote and elected 1 MP to parliament.
  4. ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.9%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 44.3%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 7.7%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
  5. ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (16.0%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 43.3%; PS: 21.1%; JPP: 7.5%; CDS-PP: 4.4%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.

References

  1. ^ "PSD e CDS juntos (de novo) na corrida à liderança do Governo da Madeira em 2023 ", Público, 22 July 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
  2. ^ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
  3. ^ Região mais pobre do país "é cadastro" de AlbuquerqueSol, 14 March 2022. Retrieved 12 April 2022.

External links

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