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Aging of the United States

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Population pyramid of the United States in 2016.

The birth rate of the United States has declined in recent decades. Some demographers project a progressively aging and shrinking population and workforce; a trend already occurring in developed countries around the world. There is debate over the impact of this demographic phenomenon.

History

Population decline
About to make the 'death cross'

The birth rate in the United States has declined steadily since the beginning of the 19th century, when the average person had as many as seven children.[1] In a 1905 speech, President Theodore Roosevelt criticized Americans for having fewer children, and described the declining birth rate as a "race suicide" among Americans,[2] quoting eugenicist Edward Alsworth Ross.[3][4] In the 1930s, the Great Depression caused a substantial decrease in the birth rate, but this trend was reversed in the subsequent Baby Boomer generation.[5]

More recently, though, the COVID-19 pandemic caused fertility to decline further,[5][6] while also increasing the death rate in the country.[7] At the same time, many women are choosing to have children later in life. This trend could cause the total population of the country to age significantly in the future.[6]

In the modern world, it has become common for developed countries to fall below the replacement level of births or see population decline. Many of these countries have tried to launch government initiatives to combat this trend, including large cash incentives for having more children, but these programs have been largely ineffective.[8]

Causes

A graph of US birth rates over time.
US birth rates from 1909 to 2008 showing the number of births per thousand people in the United States; the red segment is known as the Baby boom period (which coincided with the post–World War II economic expansion).

Population aging in the US is driven by a variety of factors, including increased access to birth control, changing societal attitudes, and lower fertility among modern Americans.[9] Another major cause is the fact that the baby boomer generation is getting older, adding a large group of older Americans to the population and causing the median age to move up.[10] COVID-19 has reduced fertility. Furthermore, there is evidence that women are choosing to give birth at a later age, which could lead to a temporary drop in population growth.[11]

Some of the birth rate decline may also have come from a decrease in unintentional pregnancy, especially in the context of the rate teenage pregnancy.[11] At the same time, though, national surveys have shown that most Americans would prefer to have more children, which suggests that problems with financial stability and work-life balance may be a more underlying cause.[12]

Finally, a further factor contributing to an aging workforce is the fact that employment rates among older workers are increasing. The rate of people who continue working after they are 65 is relatively high in the US, when compared to other developed countries. For example, in 2011, 16.7% among people aged 65 and over and 29.9% among 65–69 were employed in the US.[13]

Impacts

By 2030, 20% of Americans are projected to be 65 and older.[14] Both the overall population of the country and the average age are projected to increase over coming years. Given that older people tend to need more health services, some demographers have theorized a significant impact on the country resulting from these trends.[7] Population aging could create an increasing need for services such as nursing homes and care-giving.[7]

Economy

A shortage of workers is expected in the U.S. workforce due to a declining labor participation rate. Projections show that the demand for labor needed now is not being fulfilled, and the gap between labor needed and labor available will continue to expand over the future.[15][16] Owing to the relatively large size population size of those born between the end of WWII and the mid-1960s (referred to by some as the "Baby Boomers"), the number of people generally considered to be of working age is declining.[15][16] Additionally, young people are spending more time in education and training and are entering the workforce at a later age, and therefore, there are fewer entering the workforce in their early twenties. A loss in skilled and capable workers has made it harder for employers to recruit new staff.[17] The retirement of members of the aging workforce could possibly result in the shortage of skilled labor in the future.[18][19] A majority of experienced utility workers and hospital caregivers, for example, will be eligible for retirement.[19] By the late 2010s, the United States found herself facing a shortage of tradespeople,[20] a problem that persisted in the early 2020s despite the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession and prospective employers offering higher salaries and paid training.[21] Having an aging population accelerates industrial automation.[22][23]

Additionally, a shrinking birth rate could exacerbate economic inequality by increasing the importance of family inheritance,[24] while an overall decrease in the population could shrink the economy by reducing the demand for basic goods like real estate.[25]

Nevertheless, unlike their counterparts in many other countries East and West, American Baby Boomers had many children of their own, the Millennials, who are a large cohort relative to the nation's population and are themselves having a relatively high birth rate, as of the 2010s. As a result, the United States will continue to have a significant number of consumers, investors and taxpayers in the upcoming decades. This gives the nation an economic edge over others.[26]

Geopolitics

Because the United States is aging more slowly than any one of its main rivals, it will have an advantage in any future geopolitical contests.[26] Given current demographic trends, it is unlikely that the United States will lose its dominant position to China and Russia. On the other hand, America's allies, including Japan and the European Union, are themselves aging more quickly.[27]

Social security benefits

The U.S. federal social security system functions through collecting payroll taxes to support older citizens.[19] Some argue that a smaller workforce, coupled with increased numbers of longer-living elderly, may have a negative impact on the social security system. The Social Security Administration estimates that the old age dependency ratio (people ages 65+ divided by people ages 20–64) in 2080 will be over 40%, compared to the 20% old age dependency ratio in 2005.[19] Some state that increasing life expectancy of the older population will result in decreases in social security benefits, devaluing private and public pension programs.[19][28] Were there to be a reduction or elimination of programs such as social security and Medicare, people may experience pressure to delay retirement and to continue working.[29]

Occupational safety

Because of the many older adults opting to remain in the U.S. workforce, many studies have been done to investigate whether the older workers are at greater risk of occupational injury than their younger counterparts. Due to the physical declines associated with aging, older adults tend to exhibit losses in eyesight, hearing and physical strength.[19] Data shows that older adults have low overall injury rates compared to all age groups, but are more likely to suffer from fatal and more severe occupational injuries.[19][30] Of all fatal occupational injuries in 2005, older workers accounted for 26.4%, despite only comprising 16.4% of the workforce at the time.[30] Age increases in fatality rates in occupational injury are more pronounced for workers over the age of 65.[30] The return to work for older workers is also extended; older workers experience a greater median number of lost work days and longer recovery times than younger workers.[30] Some common occupational injuries and illnesses for older workers include arthritis[29] and fractures.[31] Among older workers, hip fractures are a large concern, given the severity of these injuries.[31]

Health care

By 2030, 20% of Americans are predicted to be past the age of retirement, which could pose a burden to the healthcare system. Older and retired people tend to need more health services, which must be provided by their younger counterparts, so some demographers have theorized that this could have a negative impact on the country.[7] Older adults will also have to deal with more chronic diseases; older adults who have worked in the construction industry have shown high rates of chronic diseases.[28][32] Experts suggest that the number of geriatricians will have to triple to meet the demands of the rising elderly.[33] There is expected to be a similarly increased demand in other healthcare professionals, such as nurses, occupational therapists, physical therapists and dentists.[33] In addition, there is expected to be an increasing demand over common geriatric care consumption needs, such as medications, joint replacements and cardiovascular operations.[33]

Society

Population aging can potentially change American society as a whole. Many companies use a system, in which older, tenured workers get raises and benefits over time, eventually hitting retirement.[34] With larger numbers of older workers in the workforce, this model might be unsustainable. In addition, perceptions of older adults in society will change, as the elderly are living longer lives and more active than before.[33]

Environment

Other demographers have suggested that a declining birth rate may have net positive effects on the country.[35] One theory is that the abrupt decline in births seems to have been caused by COVID-19, which could mean that women who postponed having children during the pandemic will still do so eventually.[36] In the past, events like the Great Recession of 2008 created a temporary decrease in the birth rate, but the trend was eventually reversed.[37] Additionally, there is some research supporting the idea that in well-educated countries, it might actually benefit the population to have a birth rate below replacement levels.[38]

Many environmentalists see this trend more optimistically because it could help combat the perceived problem of overpopulation. The world population is expected to reach almost 10 billion by the year 2050, which could pose a burden to Earth's natural resources.[39] Having fewer children has been shown to be an effective way to reduce environmental impact through reduced carbon footprint and higher populations could increase the effects of climate change in the future.[40]

Proposed solutions

A number of potential strategies have been proposed to combat the potential problems caused by an aging population. To deal with the increased demand that could be placed on the healthcare system, telehealth and virtual health monitoring has arisen as a way to help support a larger population of older adults.[41] Alternatively, some people have advocated for offering more paid parental leave and child care, thereby encouraging people to have more children.[25] These policies have already been employed in other areas of the world, but with mixed results. In some countries such as Germany and Czech Republic they successfully raised the birth rate,[42] but not in others, such as in Finland,[43] Singapore,[44] and Taiwan.[45]

Some have argued that reduced immigration will have a larger impact on population growth than the declining birth rate.[46] Immigration has historically been a source of growth for the US, and some have suggested that it could slow or reverse the trend of population aging or decline.[47] However, studies have shown that immigrants from countries with high-fertility rates often have fewer children when they immigrate to a country where small families are the norm.[48] It has also been shown that low-birth rates[49] and sudden increases in immigration often lead to increased levels of populism and xenophobia.[50] Arguments in favor of increasing immigration to combat declining population levels have sparked outcry from some right-wing political factions in the United States and some European countries.[51][52] In the United States, past episodes of domestic turmoil have led to moratoriums on immigration.[27] Furthermore, the United States today struggles to integrate the various different ethnic groups already living in the country alongside new immigrants. Ethnic and cultural diversity has its downsides in the form of declining cultural capital, falling civic participation, lower general social trust, and greater social fragmentation.[53]

See also

References

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Further reading

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