Forecast skill
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Skill in forecasting (or skill score[1], forecast skill, prediction skill) is a scaled representation of forecast error that relates the forecast accuracy of a particular forecast model to some reference model.
| Mean squared error (MSE) |  |
| Forecast skill (SS) |  |
A perfect forecast results in a forecast skill of 1.0, a forecast with similar skill to the reference forecast would have a skill of 0.0, and a forecast which is less skillful than the reference forecast would have negative skill values.[2][3] Reference class forecasting was developed to increase forecast skill.[4]
[edit] References
- ^ Glossary of Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, [1]
- ^ Roebber, Paul J. (1998), "The Regime Dependence of Degree Day Forecast Technique, Skill, and Value", American Meteorological Society -- Weather and Forecasting (Allen Press) 13 (3): 783–794, Bibcode 1998WtFor..13..783R, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0783:TRDODD>2.0.CO;2, http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0434(1998)013%3C0783%3ATRDODD%3E2.0.CO%3B2, retrieved 2009-01-19
- ^ Murphy, Allen H. (1988), "Skill Scores Based on the Mean Square Error and Their Relationships to the Correlation Coefficient", American Meteorological Society -- Monthly Weather Review (Allen Press) 116 (12): 2417–2424, Bibcode 1988MWRv..116.2417M, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2417:SSBOTM>2.0.CO;2, http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0493(1988)116%3C2417%3ASSBOTM%3E2.0.CO%3B2, retrieved 2009-01-19
- ^ "Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice." European Planning Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, January 2008, pp. 3-21.
