iPredict

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iPredict
Headquarters Wellington, New Zealand
Parent Victoria University of Wellington
Website www.ipredict.co.nz
Type of site Trading exchange
Available in English
Launched 2008
Current status Active

iPredict is a New Zealand prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on current events, political issues and economic issues. iPredict is jointly owned by the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation and Victoria University of Wellington.[1] The site launched on 9 September 2008.

iPredict's system is a prediction market which allows members to trade contracts (take 'positions') on whether future events will or will not occur. The contracts have judgement criteria which define how they will be settled. For example, a contract could be called "There will be a National Prime Minister after the next General Election". Other events include financial predictions, such as "The NZX50 Gross Index closes equal or higher on Friday 7 December, than the closing price on Thursday 6 December." iPredict facilitates trades between members, but does not participate in trading itself.[2]

Traders can either buy (go long on) contracts, indicating that the event will happen or sell (go short on) contracts, indicating the event will not happen. The trading unit is a contract with a settlement value, typically either $1 or $0 and the contract can trade between these values where 1 percent equals $0.01 in value. If the event specified in a given contract occurs, the contract settles at 100 percent or $1; otherwise, the contract settles at 0 or $0 in value. Thus, the current price of the contract can be imputed as the market's global opinion of the probability that the specified event will occur. Traders can trade both before and during an event. iPredict often has a market makers to provide a two way price at almost all times.

Contracts[edit]

iPredict provides a wide variety of contracts including many New Zealand politics stock, elections in other countries including the United States, Australia, Britain, Japan, Germany Italy and Spain. They also provide markets in financial market outcomes, Economic indicators in New Zealand, and other leading international economies. There are also stocks in International Relations and Science and Technology.[3]

Fees[edit]

iPredict charges a Trading Fee of $0.0035 per share traded (35 cents per 100 shares traded). The Trading Fee is capped at 5% of any trade’s gross cash value, and capped at $5 per month per user. There is a 1.75% fee on credit card deposits. Users can also make a manual bank deposit which incurs no fee. There is a withdrawal fee of 2% or $2 (whichever is greater) which is levied on withdrawals, but only a trader has positive earnings on iPredict.[2]

In 2011 iPredict proposed a $2.50 monthly account fee as well as a $2.50 sign up fee, however these plans were abandoned after a negative response from traders [4]

Legal status and technical problems[edit]

Under the New Zealand Gambling Act 1993, only the New Zealand Lotteries Commission and the TAB are permitted to accept bets by internet or phone. However, iPredict is authorised by the New Zealand Securities Commission as an authorised futures dealer, so is therefore lawful. This has been met with opposition from the Problem Gambling Foundation.[5]

In 2012 the website was hit by a run of technical problems, causing it to operate a greatly reduced speeds and go offline for a number of days at a time on at least two occasions.[6][7] This caused problems for iPredict commercially for its deal with Exceltium [8]

References[edit]

External links[edit]