Northern Territory general election, 2012

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Northern Territory general election, 2012
Northern Territory
2008 ←
25 August 2012
→ 2016

25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
  First party Second party
 
Leader Terry Mills Paul Henderson
Party Country Liberal Labor
Leader since 29 January 2008 26 November 2007
Leader's seat Blain Wanguri
Last election 11 seats 13 seats
Seats before 12 seats 12 seats
Seats won 16 seats 8 seats
Seat change Increase4 Decrease4
Popular vote 46,653 33,594
Percentage 55.8% [1] 44.2% [2]
Swing Increase5.1 Decrease5.1

Chief Minister before election

Paul Henderson
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Terry Mills
Country Liberal

The Northern Territory general election was held on Saturday 25 August 2012, which elected all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament. The 11-year Australian Labor Party government led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson was defeated in their attempt to win a fourth term against the opposition Country Liberal Party led by opposition leader Terry Mills with a swing of four seats, losing the normally safe Labor remote seats of Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Stuart, whilst retaining their urban seats picked up at the 2001 election.[3][4]

Results[edit]

NT Legislative Assembly (IRV) — Turnout 76.9% (CV) — Informal 3.2% [5][6]
  Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Country Liberal Party 46,653 50.6 +5.2 16 +4
  Australian Labor Party 33,594 36.5 −6.7 8 −4
  NT Greens 3,039 3.3 −1.0 0 0
  First Nations 2,048 2.2 +2.2 0 0
  Sex Party 717 0.8 +0.8 0 0
  Independents 5,566 6.0 −1.1 1 0
  Other 526 0.6 +0.6 0 0
  Total 92,143     25
  Country Liberal Party 51,435 55.8 +5.1 16 +4
  Australian Labor Party 40,709 44.2 −5.1 8 −4

Independents: Gerry Wood

Two safe Labor seats were uncontested at the previous election and therefore did not contribute to votes and results, all seats were contested at this election with the two previously uncontested Labor seats both won by the CLP.

Background[edit]

Historically, remote areas had voted Labor while the urban areas had voted CLP. The CLP had governed since the initial 1974 election until Labor led by Clare Martin surprisingly came to power with a one-seat majority government at the 2001 election with the additional support of the urban area. Labor won in a landslide at the 2005 election, leaving the CLP with only four seats. Although Labor led by Henderson retained a one-seat majority government at the 2008 election on 13 Labor, 11 CLP, 1 independent with only 49.3 percent of the two-party preferred vote, Labor had won two seats uncontested by the CLP—all seats were contested again at the 2012 election. Labor, the CLP, the Northern Territory Greens, the First Nations Political Party and the Australian Sex Party were running endorsed candidates.

A minority government was led by Henderson from mid-2009 when Alison Anderson resigned from the Labor Party to sit as an independent member of parliament. Anderson along with the existing independent Gerry Wood signed a letter to the speaker of parliament to push sittings forward, in which the CLP leader put forth a motion of no confidence on Monday 10 August 2009.[7][8][9] Wood ended up voting with the government, defeating the motion of no confidence.[10] Anderson joined the CLP in September 2011, resulting in 12 Labor, 12 CLP, 1 independent.[11] Wood and Anderson retained their seats at the 2012 election.

In October 2010, former CLP leader Jodeen Carney resigned in her seat, an Araluen by-election was held, the CLP retained the seat but suffered a 6.6 percent two-party preferred swing.

Method[edit]

Like the Australian House of Representatives, members were elected through full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

In a change to polling in remote electorates, where most voting was previously conducted by mobile polling teams, for the first time there was full election day voting in major regional indigenous centres. As such, swings may be distorted. The conducting of a formal polling place could also alter the way voting takes places and increase the local turnout. Mobile polling teams were still used but they took many fewer votes than in the past. In addition, for the first time in the territory, there was an electronic feed of results, the last administration in Australia to go electronic.[12]

Date[edit]

The Henderson Labor government introduced fixed four-year terms following the previous election.[13]

The Legislative Assembly was dissolved on 6 August 2012. The electoral roll was closed on 8 August and nominations on 10 August, prior to polling day on 25 August.[14]

The election was held on the same day as the Heffron state by-election in New South Wales.

Retiring MPs[edit]

Labor[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Sitting members are in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Electorate Held By Labor Candidate CLP Candidate Greens Candidate Other Candidates
 
Arafura Labor Dean Rioli Francis Xavier George Pascoe Jeannie Gadambua (FNPP)
Araluen CLP Adam Findlay Robyn Lambley Edan Baxter (FNPP)
Arnhem Labor Malarndirri McCarthy Larisa Lee
Barkly Labor Gerry McCarthy Rebecca Healy Valda Shannon (FNPP)
Stewart Willey (Ind)
Blain CLP Geoff Bahnert Terry Mills Daniel Fejo (FNPP)
Braitling CLP Deborah Rock Adam Giles Barbara Shaw Colin Furphy (Ind)
Brennan CLP Russell Jeffrey Peter Chandler
Casuarina Labor Kon Vatskalis Jane Johnson
Daly Labor Rob Knight Gary Higgins David Pollock Trevor Jenkins (-)
Bill Risk (FNPP)
Drysdale CLP James Burke Lia Finocchiaro Ross Bohlin (Ind)
Fannie Bay Labor Michael Gunner Tony Clementson Ken Bird
Fong Lim CLP Ashley Marsh David Tollner Matt Haubrick Peter Burnheim (ASP)
Goyder CLP Damien Smith Kezia Purick John Kearney (-)
Greatorex CLP Rowan Foley Matt Conlan Evelyne Roullet Phil Walcott (Ind)
Johnston Labor Ken Vowles Jo Sangster Alana Parrott-Jolly Peter Bussa (-)
Krystal Metcalf (ASP)
Karama Labor Delia Lawrie Rohan Kelly Frances Elcoate
Katherine CLP Cerise King Willem Westra van Holthe Teresa Cummings (Ind)
Namatjira Labor Des Rogers Alison Anderson Warren H Williams (FNPP)
Nelson Independent Sharon McAlear Judy Cole Gerry Wood (Ind)
Nhulunbuy Labor Lynne Walker Allen Fanning Kendall Trudgen (Ind)
Nightcliff Labor Natasha Fyles Kim Loveday Owen Gale Andrew Arthur (Ind)
Stuart Blanch (Ind)
Peter Rudge (Ind)
Felicity Wardle (ASP)
Port Darwin CLP Alan James John Elferink David Andrews Rowena Leunig (ASP)
Sanderson CLP Jodie Green Peter Styles Jillian Briggs (ASP)
Dimitrious Magriplis (FNPP)
Stuart Labor Karl Hampton Bess Price Maurie Japarta Ryan (FNPP)
Wanguri Labor Paul Henderson Rhianna Harker

Unregistered parties and groups[edit]

  • Two previous One Nation candidates ran, One Nation Northern Territory Branch President John Kearney in Goyder and Peter Bussa from NSW in Johnston.

Pre-election pendulum[edit]

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP 1.1
Daly Robert Knight ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston Chris Burns ALP 8.1
Safe
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP 10.7
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 10.8
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP 14.0
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 14.2
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 14.9
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP 15.1
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP 15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP 24.2
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP Unopp
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 28.7 v CLP
COUNTRY LIBERAL SEATS
Marginal
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP 2.1
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP 2.6
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP 2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP 6.4
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP 8.4
Katherine Willem W-v-Holthe CLP 8.4
Safe
Drysdale Ross Bohlin CLP 10.1
Blain Terry Mills CLP 11.6
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 16.5
Araluen Robyn Lambley CLP 18.0
Very safe
Braitling Adam Giles CLP 20.3 v GRN
MacDonnell Alison Anderson ALP v. CLP Unopp


Newspaper endorsements[edit]

Newspaper Endorsement
The Australian Country Liberal[15]
NT News Labor[citation needed]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Antony Greens's Election Blog: Final Figures for 2012 Northern Territory Election". ABC News. 2 September 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2012. 
  2. ^ "Antony Greens's Election Blog: Final Figures for 2012 Northern Territory Election". ABC News. 2 September 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2012. 
  3. ^ http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2012/guide/sop.htm
  4. ^ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-25/nt-votes-live-blog/4222578
  5. ^ "Legislative Assembly results 2012". NT Electoral Commission. Retrieved 3 September 2012. 
  6. ^ 2012 NT election guide: Antony Green ABC
  7. ^ "D-Day brought forward". Northern Territory News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011. 
  8. ^ "NT Labor may be ousted next week". ABC News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011. 
  9. ^ "Labor's fate uncertain". The Age. 11 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011. 
  10. ^ "Labor survives D-day in NT showdown". The Australian. 14 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011. 
  11. ^ "Anderson 'mates' with an old enemy". Northern Territory News. 9 September 2011. Retrieved 27 January 2012. 
  12. ^ http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/08/2012-nt-election-how-to-follow-the-abc-coverage-on-saturday-night-.html
  13. ^ Green, Antony (4 August 2009). "Fixed Term Parliaments face test in Northern Territory". ABC News. Retrieved 3 February 2011. 
  14. ^ Green, Antony (13 June 2012). "2012 Northern Territory Election Website now live". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 13 June 2012. 
  15. ^ "Embrace the chance for a fresh start in the Territory". The Australian (News Limited). 25 August 2012. Retrieved 25 August 2012. 

External links[edit]