Predictable surprise
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A "Predictable Surprise" describes a situation or circumstance in which avoidable crises are marginalized in order to satisfy economic and social policies.
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[edit] Definition
Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins define "predictable surprises" as problems that
- at least some people are aware of,
- are getting worse over time, and
- are likely to explode into a crisis eventually,
- but are not prioritized by key decision-makers or have not elicited a response fast enough to prevent severe damage.
The problems behind "predictable surprises" tend to require a significant investment in the near term that will not pay off until later. This could involve changes to established organization culture and/or changes that competing interests do not benefit from.
[edit] Examples of predictable surprises
- September 11, 2001 attacks
- Iraq War
- Enron scandal
- Subprime mortgage crisis[1]
- Hurrican Katrina Response[2]
- Global Warming[3]
- Roman Catholic sex abuse cases
[edit] Citations
- ^ Watkins, M (2007)BusinessWeek (December 17) Subprime: A Predictable Surprise
- ^ Irons, L (2005) Homeland Security Affairs Hurricane Katrina as A Predictable Surprise
- ^ Bazerman, M (2006) Climate change as a predictable surprise.Climatic Change 77:79-193
[edit] References
- M. Bazerman and M. Watkins (2004) Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them. ISBN 1591391784
- B. Tuchman (1984) The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. ISBN 978-0345308238
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