Victory disease

An example of victory disease and its catastrophic results: Napoleon's retreat from Moscow, painted by Adolph Northen in the 19th century

Victory disease denotes when in military history, because of complacency and/or arrogance brought on by a victory or series of victories, an engagement ends disastrously for a commander and his forces.

A commander may disdain the enemy, and believe his own invincibility, leading his troops to disaster. That commander may employ strategies which, if effective in earlier combats or maneuvers, prove catastrophic against a new or smarter enemy; the commander afflicted by "victory disease" may also fail to anticipate a new enemy may use tactics different from those of old enemies. An overconfident commander may disregard military intelligence which would enable the commander to realize that new tactics are needed.

Though "victory disease" does not inevitably foretell defeat, it often precedes it. The term is also applied outside the military world (see references).

Periscope-view from the US submarine USS Nautilus attacking a Japanese aircraft carrier (probably the Kaga) at the Battle of Midway.

Origin

The origin of the term ((戦勝病 senshoubyou) in Japanese) is associated with the Japanese advance in the Pacific Theater of World War II, where, after attacking Pearl Harbor in 1941, Japan won a series of nearly uninterrupted victories against the Allies in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Although the Japanese had planned to establish a perimeter and go on the defensive, victories encouraged them to continue expanding to where it strained logistics and the navy. This culminated in the Battle of Midway in 1942, a catastrophic defeat of the Japanese navy: all four Japanese aircraft carriers involved were sunk, and the hitherto unstoppable Japanese advance was blunted.^{[citation needed]}

Examples

Main article: History of victory disease

Graph of the strength of Napoleon's army as it marches to Moscow and back.

Scene of Custer's last stand, 1877.

• The Battle of Salamis in 480 BC in the Greco-Persian Wars, in which the hubris of Xerxes I led to the defeat of the Persian Empire by the Greeks.

• In 1415, the Battle of Agincourt, the English were grossly outnumbered by 5 to 1, but the arrogance and disorganization of French knights, as well as superb quality longbows, were the underlying circumstances which led to the English overcoming the odds and annihilated the French.

• The overconfidence and lack of preparation led to the disastrous defeat of the English, led by Edward II at the Battle of Bannockburn to the Scots, led by Robert the Bruce.

• Spanish naval assault on England in 1588 suffered the defeat of the "unsinkable" Spanish Armada. Similarly, British overconfidence led to the disasters of the English Armada and the Battle of Cartagena de Indias.

• The decision of Napoleon to invade Russia in 1812. A force of between 580,000 and 690,000 French soldiers invaded, of which about 40,000 returned.

• United States victories in the Mexican–American War and the Indian Wars made Union forces over-confident going into the American Civil War, losing their first battle — they expected a quick victory. The Confederates similarly stereotyped the Union, at times leading to military disaster.

• Confederate decisions made at and before their loss at the Battle of Gettysburg, after their outnumbered-five-to-two victory at the Battle of Chancellorsville during the Civil War.

• The 1876 Battle of the Little Bighorn, in which the Sioux nearly annihilated the entire 7th Cavalry of Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer. Expecting a repeat of the Battle of Washita River, Custer ignored contrary intelligence or did not seek it out.

• The 1879 Battle of Isandlwana in which Zulu warriors equipped mainly with spears and shields annihilated a mixed British and native force armed with modern firearms and artillery, Followed by the subsequent defeat of a large Zulu force against a much smaller British contingent at the Battle of Rorke's Drift.

• The catastrophic decision of Hitler to invade the Soviet Union in 1941, underestimating Soviet military resilience, counting on success of old tactics, confident of quick victory and not counting on getting caught in a Russian winter or rasputitsa (mud season).

• Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. This followed wins in the First Sino-Japanese War the Russo-Japanese War, the First World War and early victories during the Second Sino-Japanese War

See also

• Groupthink
• Hubris
• Communal reinforcement
• Confirmation bias
• Narcissism
• Pyrrhic victory

External links

• U.S. Army Professional Writing Collection on victory disease
• Long article from the US military with much on Little Bighorn & Task Force Ranger
• On Napoleon's disaster
• Origin of the term