Ecological forecasting: Difference between revisions
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One major challenge is to predict where and when impacts will occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them. Ecological forecasting applies our knowledge of how animals and plants interact with their physical environment to ask, how will changes in climate (and other environmental factors) result in changes to the natural environment?<br /> |
One major challenge is to predict where and when impacts will occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them. Ecological forecasting applies our knowledge of how animals and plants interact with their physical environment to ask, how will changes in climate (and other environmental factors) result in changes to the natural environment?<br /> |
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==='''Approaches'''=== |
==='''Approaches'''=== |
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One approach to ecological forecasting is called “climate envelope modeling.” It basically relies on statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species tolerance. <br /> “Envelopes” of tolerance are then drawn around existing ranges. By predicting future levels of factors such as temperature, rainfall, and salinity, new range boundaries are then predicted. <br />These methods are good for examining large numbers of species, but are likely not a good means of predicting effects at fine scales. <br /> A new method for forecasting ecological effects links physiological information about a species to models of animal and plant body temperature. <br />In contrast to “climate envelope” approaches, environmental variables are predicted at the level of the niche and are therefore much more exact. However, the approach is also more time consuming.<br /> |
One approach to ecological forecasting is called “climate envelope modeling.” <br /> It basically relies on statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species tolerance. <br /> “Envelopes” of tolerance are then drawn around existing ranges. By predicting future levels of factors such as temperature, rainfall, and salinity, new range boundaries are then predicted. <br />These methods are good for examining large numbers of species, but are likely not a good means of predicting effects at fine scales. <br /> A new method for forecasting ecological effects links physiological information about a species to models of animal and plant body temperature. <br />In contrast to “climate envelope” approaches, environmental variables are predicted at the level of the niche and are therefore much more exact. However, the approach is also more time consuming.<br /> |
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==='''References'''=== |
==='''References'''=== |
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<ref>Clark, J.S. et al. 2001. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660. </ref> |
<ref>Clark, J.S. et al. 2001. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660. </ref> |
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Revision as of 17:13, 6 September 2008
Ecological Forecasting
As the name implies, the field of Ecological Forecasting predicts how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental such as climate change. The ultimate goal of the approach is to provide people such as resource managers with information that they can then use to respond, in advance, to those impending changes.
One of the most important environmental factors impacting organisms today is global climate change. Virtually all physiological processes are affected by temperature, and so even small changes in weather and climate can lead to large changes in the growth, reproduction and survival of animals and plants. Scientists are very certain that the emission of greenhouse gasses is leading to climate change, and that these changes are in turn impacting both humans and ecosystems.
One major challenge is to predict where and when impacts will occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them. Ecological forecasting applies our knowledge of how animals and plants interact with their physical environment to ask, how will changes in climate (and other environmental factors) result in changes to the natural environment?
Approaches
One approach to ecological forecasting is called “climate envelope modeling.”
It basically relies on statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species tolerance.
“Envelopes” of tolerance are then drawn around existing ranges. By predicting future levels of factors such as temperature, rainfall, and salinity, new range boundaries are then predicted.
These methods are good for examining large numbers of species, but are likely not a good means of predicting effects at fine scales.
A new method for forecasting ecological effects links physiological information about a species to models of animal and plant body temperature.
In contrast to “climate envelope” approaches, environmental variables are predicted at the level of the niche and are therefore much more exact. However, the approach is also more time consuming.
References
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]
External Links
NASA Ecological Forecasting [1]
NOAA Ecological Forecasting [2]
Ecological Forecasting at University of South Carolina [3]
- ^ Clark, J.S. et al. 2001. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660.
- ^ Gilman, S.E., D.S. Wethey and B. Helmuth 2006. Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, 103 (25): 9560-9565.
- ^ elmuth, B., N. Mieszkowska, P. Moore and S.J. Hawkins. 2006. Living on the edge of two changing worlds: forecasting the responses of rocky intertidal ecosystems to climate change. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37: 373-404.
- ^ Kearney, M. 2006. Habitat, environment and niche: what are we modelling? Oikos 115: 186-191.
- ^ Kearney, M, B,L. Phillips, C.R. Tracy, K.A. Christian, G. Betts, and W.P. Porter, 2008. Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates Ecography 31 (4): 423-434.
- ^ Lohse, K.A, D.A Newburn, J.J. Opperman, and A.M. Merenlender. 2008. Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning. Ecological Applications 18 (2): 467-482.
- ^ Stockwell, D. and D. Peters 1999. The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. - Int. J. Geog. Inf. Sci. 13: 143-158.
- ^ Wethey, D.S,. and S.A. Woodin. 2008. Ecological hindcasting of biogeographic responses to climate change in the European intertidal zone. Hydrobiologia 606:139-151.