Brokered convention

A brokered convention refers to a situation in United States politics where there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority for the presidential nominating convention. Since no candidates receive enough votes on the first ballot to win the nomination, the convention is brokered through political horse-trading and multiple ballots.

Background

Before the era of presidential primaries, conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson in 1952 for the Democratic Party and Thomas Dewey in 1948 for the Republican Party were the last two candidates selected through a brokered convention. The last seriously contested convention was the 1976 Republican convention, where Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan on the first ballot without obtaining a majority of delegates through the primary and caucus process.

Since then, there have been many years where brokered conventions were projected, but did not come to pass. In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats since multiple candidates won the Super Tuesday primaries that year.

Difficulty

In the 2008 election cycle, the possibility of a brokered convention remains for both parties. On the Republican side, although some states award delegates using the winner take all system, many large states are dividing their delegation by congressional district, which will result in easier splitting of delegates. Pundits argue that with the lack of a front runner in the Republican field and the number of competitive candidates, voters will not coalesce around one or two candidates and a brokered convention could result. On the Democratic side, the current split of support for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and the announcement by John Edwards that he will remain in the race until the convention could result in a 3-way race where no candidate receives a majority of delegates on the first ballot. Many Al Gore supporters have stated that a brokered convention would be the last chance for Gore to enter the race; some see his book, "The Assault on Reason," as implicity suggesting this strategy.

Several factors encourage decision in the primary process. First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process, due to the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be seen by the media and voters as the front runner due to their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them. Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention, which has turned the nominating conventions from the rough-and-tumble affairs to the infomercial-type occasions they are today. Thus, a candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must climb additional hurdles to gain election.