Brokered convention

A brokered convention refers to a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority in the first round of voting of the presidential nominating convention. Once the first ballot has been held, and no candidate has a majority of delegate votes, the convention is then considered brokered, and the nomination is decided through political horse-trading and further ballots.

Background

Before the era of presidential primaries, conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson in 1952 for the Democratic Party and Thomas Dewey in 1948 for the Republican Party were the last two candidates selected through a brokered convention, although the Democratic Party's 1968 convention might have been brokered had it not been for the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy. The last brokered convention to yield a nominee that went on to win the general election was the Democratic convention in 1932 that nominated Franklin Roosevelt.

Since then, there have been many years when brokered conventions were projected but did not come to pass. In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats since several candidates won the Super Tuesday primaries that year.

Brokered conventions today

Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process. First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them. Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself (there are barely two months between the major parties' conventions and Election Day). Also, the candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must climb additional hurdles in a relatively short time to gain election.

Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day, it is considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.

2008 presidential election

For the 2008 election there has been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention may commence without a presumptive nominee.

For the Democrats a brokered convention is still possible, but unlikely. The only other candidate with pledged delegates is John Edwards, and with barely 0.5 percent of the total delegates, Edwards is unlikely to be able to use them for any significant leverage. In addition, under Democratic Party rules, delegates pledged to a candidate may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than that candidate, even if that candidate is no longer running for the nomination. Delegates pledged to John Edwards may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than Edwards. For the Democratic convention to be declared a brokered convention, with neither remaining candidate gaining a simple majority of votes at the first ballot, the vote would have to be very close, falling within the margin of Edwards' delegates, and whatever abstentions may occur. This doesn't consider the fact that Michigan and Florida's delegates will not be seated; however, it is unclear if the candidate must obtain a majority the total possible delegates or a majority of delegates minus Michigan and Florida.

Superdelegate votes are counted in the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term.

Brokered conventions in popular culture

In the last two episodes of season six of The West Wing, the Democratic party fought through a brokered convention, with dark horse candidate Matthew Santos (Jimmy Smits) eventually prevailing.