Cyclone Eloise

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For the Atlantic hurricane, see Hurricane Eloise.
Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise
Current storm status
Moderate tropical storm (MFR)
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:18:00 UTC, 19 January
Location:15°42′N 45°06′E / 15.7°N 45.1°E / 15.7; 45.1 (Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise)
Sustained winds:35 knots (65 km/h; 40 mph) (10-min mean)
35 knots (65 km/h; 40 mph) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 knots (85 km/h; 50 mph)
Pressure:998 hPa (29.47 inHg)
Movement:WSW at 13 kn (24 km/h; 15 mph)
See latest official information.

Severe Tropical Storm Eloise is a current tropical cyclone weakening from land interaction. it is likely to intensify as it heads to Africa. The disturbance that spawned Eloise was first noted on 14 January, and it entered a region marginally favorable to development. The seventh tropical depression, fifth named storm, and third severe tropical storm of the 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, It developed into a tropical depression on 16 January, and strengthened into a tropical storm on 17 January, though the storm had limited outflow. On the next day, the storm entered a favorable environment as equatorward outflow became vigorous.

Late on 19 January, Eloise made landfall in Northern Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm, bringing large amounts of rainfall. The storm is still over the country at this time. It is forecasted to enter the Mozambique Channel and intensify rapidly into cyclone status before it makes its second landfall.[1]

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On 14 January, a zone of disturbed weather formed over the central South Indian Ocean, to the east of another system, gradually organizing while moving westward.[2] On 16 January, the system organized into a tropical depression.[3] With the assistance of persisting deep convection, the system strengthened into Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise on 17 January.[4] Initially, Eloise struggled from the presence of a strong easterly shear which caused Eloise's thunderstorm activity to be displaced to the west.[5] Despite the presence of this shear and mid-level dry air, Eloise began to intensify further with convection wrapping into an eye feature and outflow becoming increasingly defined, marking the intensification of Eloise into a severe tropical storm on 19 January on a track towards Madagascar.[6] This intensification trend was not particularly long as Eloise made a small turn to the north and then made landfall in Antalaha, Madagascar whilst weakening back to a moderate tropical storm due to land interaction.[7]

Current storm information

As of 06:00 UTC on 19 January, Overland Depression Eloise located within 20 nautical miles of 16°00′S 47°48′E / 16.0°S 47.8°E / -16.0; 47.8 (Eloise). Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 35 knots (65 km/h; 40 mph), with gusts up to 45 knots (85 km/h; 50 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 998 hPa (29.47 inHg).

For the latest official information see:

Preparations

Madagascar

Ahead of landfall, humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar are coordinating preparedness activities. A meeting will be organized on 19 January by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) to prepare for potential assessments and/or response. Humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar are coordinating preparedness activities, and have devised plans, including contingency plans, evacuation plans, emergency operation centres and early warning system at the community level. Aerial assessments using photo and geo-tracking system are also planned for the impact of the storm.[8] Humanitarian actors have activated the local contingency plan in the north-eastern part of the country and the early warning system at the community level has been reinforced. Emergency stocks are available in many districts in the most at-risk areas. [9] On 18 January, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) gave the storm a green alert, which points to a wind impact of 0.5. On 19 January, the day Eloise is expected to make landfall, GDACS upgraded the storm alert to an orange alert, which points to a higher 1.5 wind impact.[10][11][12]

Mozambique

In Mozambique, the newly-created National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction (INGD) – which has replaced the former National Disaster Management Institute (INGC) – is closely following the weather system's trajectory and working with humanitarian partners to prepare for any response required.[13] The Meteorological Services Department in Zimbabwe has advised of continuous rains from 14 to 20 January throughout the nation, which may result in riverine flooding, flash flooding and subsequent damages to houses, roads, sewer lines and other public infrastructure in some areas. [14]

Impact

Madagascar

On January 19, Eloise made landfall in the north-eastern town of Antalaha, Madagascar as a tropical storm. Eloise generated heavy rains, which could generate floods and landslides in northern Madagascar.[8] Météo-France noted on January 20 that accumulations for 100mm to 150mm were possible in 24 hours for the north-western regions of Madagascar.[15] As of 18:00 UTC Jan. 19, authorities have issued a red alert (imminent danger) for the Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra and Mandritsara regions and a yellow alert (threat) for Toamasina I-II and Alaotra. All weather warnings have been lifted in Brickaville, Vatomandry, Mahanoro and Moramanga. Authorities may issue warnings over the coming days, depending on the track of the storm.[14] Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.[14] Moreover, strong winds, reaching near gale or gale force winds(30/35 kt) are spreading from north to south along the northwestern coast of Madagascar. These winds, oriented from the sea to the land, may cause some local coastal submersion.[15]

Mozambique

According to the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM), Eloise is expected to strengthen into a cyclone over the Mozambique Channel on 21 January, and could possibly make landfall somewhere between the Inhambane and Gaza provinces.[14] Government officials have placed the Inhanombe and Mutamba in southern Mozambique and Buzi and Pungoe basins in central Mozambique on high alert.[14]

See also

References

  1. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 00". JTWC. January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 20, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Activity Bulletin for the South-West Indian Ocean" (PDF). Meteo France La Reunion. 15 January 2021. Retrieved 15 January 2021. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= requires |archive-url= (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Activity Bulletin for the South-West Indian Ocean" (PDF). Meteo France La Reunion. 15 January 2021. Retrieved 16 January 2021. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= requires |archive-url= (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  4. ^ "Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (Eloise)" (PDF). Meteo France La Reunion. 17 January 2021. Retrieved 17 January 2021. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= requires |archive-url= (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  5. ^ "Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (Eloise)" (PDF). January 18, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  6. ^ "Severe Tropical Storm 7 (Eloise) Warning Number 14/07/20202021" (PDF). Meteo France La Reunion. January 19, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  7. ^ "A Moderate Tropical Storm 4 (Eloise) Warning Number 17/7/20202021" (PDF). Meteo France La Reunion. January 19, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  8. ^ a b "Southern Africa – Tropical Storm Eloise Flash Update No.2, As of 19 January 2021 - Madagascar". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2021-01-20.
  9. ^ "Preparedness and Response Flash Update | 14 January 2021 - Zimbabwe". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  10. ^ "Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21". Retrieved 18 January 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  11. ^ "Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC". www.gdacs.org. Retrieved 2021-01-20.
  12. ^ "GDACS - Global Disaster Alerting and Coordination System". www.gdacs.org. Retrieved 2021-01-20.
  13. ^ "SOUTHERN AFRICA – TROPICAL STORM ELOISE Flash Update No.1" (PDF). Reliefweb. Retrieved 18 January 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  14. ^ a b c d e "Madagascar: Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise makes landfall in the Sava region Jan. 19 /update 3". GardaWorld. Retrieved 2021-01-20.
  15. ^ a b "CMRSA_202101201800_ELOISE.pdf" (PDF). Météo-France. Retrieved 20 January 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Severe Tropical Storm Eloise.
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