Cyclone Eloise

For the Atlantic hurricane, see Hurricane Eloise.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise
Current storm status Tropical cyclone (MFR)
Current storm status Category 2 tropical cyclone (1-min mean)
Satellite image Forecast map
As of:	00:00 UTC, 23 January
Location:	20.1°N 35.0°E / 20.1; 35.0 (Tropical Cyclone Eloise)
Sustained winds:	80 knots (150 km/h; 90 mph) (10-min mean) 85 knots (155 km/h; 100 mph) (1-min mean) gusting to 90 knots (165 km/h; 105 mph)
Pressure:	967 hPa (28.56 inHg)
Movement:	WSW at 12 kn (22 km/h; 14 mph)
See latest official information.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise is a current tropical cyclone threatening Mozambique. The disturbance that spawned Eloise was first noted on 14 January, and it entered a region marginally favorable to development. The seventh tropical depression, fifth named storm, and third severe tropical storm of the 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, it developed into a tropical depression on 16 January, and strengthened into a tropical storm on 17 January, though the storm had limited outflow. On the next day, the storm entered a favorable environment as equatorward outflow became vigorous, and it soon intensified to a Severe Tropical Storm. Late on 19 January, Eloise made landfall in northern Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm, bringing large amounts of rainfall. The storm traversed the Madagascan coast and entered into the Mozambique Channel on the early hours of 21 January, and is expected to make landfall in Mozambique near Beira by the next day. After moving southwestward across the Mozambique Channel for two days, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent cyclone, due to low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. As it traveled along, it then became a category 2-eqivalent cyclone just prior to landfall.

The effects of Tropical Storm Chalane are expected to be exacerbated in some portions of southern Africa. Preparations for the advancing storm took place in Madagascar before Eloise's landfall and in multiple other African countries. For Madagascar, widespread warnings and alerts were issued as the storm approached northern Madagascar. For Mozambique, high alerts have been put in place for central portions of the country. Humanitarian responders have been prepared for response after the storms passing. Beira's port will be closed for about 40 hours, and limited supplies of emergency non-food items have been given. Many families are currently sheltered in tents at accommodation centers, and are awaiting kits for food, hygiene, and COVID-19 protection. Officials in Zimbabwe have warned of ravine and flash flooding which may cause infrastructure damage. Several northern provinces of South Africa are expected to experience heavy rains, which have prompted severe risk warnings for them. Disaster management teams are placed on high alert.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

Map key

Saffir–Simpson scale

  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown

Storm type

Tropical cyclone

Subtropical cyclone

Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On 14 January, a zone of disturbed weather formed over the central South Indian Ocean, to the east of another system, gradually organizing while moving westward. On 16 January, the system organized into a tropical depression. With the assistance of persisting deep convection, the system strengthened into Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise on 17 January. Initially, Eloise struggled from the presence of a strong easterly shear which caused Eloise's thunderstorm activity to be displaced to the west. Despite the presence of this shear and mid-level dry air, Eloise began to intensify further with convection wrapping into an eye feature and outflow becoming increasingly defined, marking the intensification of Eloise into a severe tropical storm on 19 January on a track towards Madagascar. This intensification trend was not particularly long as Eloise made a small turn to the north and then made landfall in Antalaha, Madagascar whilst weakening back to a moderate tropical storm due to land interaction with the mountains of Madagascar. The next day, Eloise weakened to a tropical depression due to land interaction, with deep convection over its center eroded though it had flaring convection over the northern semicircle.

On January 20, Eloise emerged into the Mozambique Channel. While in the Mozambique channel Eloise began to reintensify, with warm waters, a moist environment, little shear, and good equatorwards divergence contributing to the storm's strengtening trend. However, some upper-level convergence hindered convection from developing quickly, though all other factors were relatively favorable. Soon afterward, the upper-level convergence began to decrease, allowing the system to begin strengthening. On January 21, Eloise's outflow became robust, though its strength was limited, due to land interaction in the northern semicircle of the storm, having the strongest winds in the southeast quadrant, and boasting much weaker winds elsewhere. Despite sustained land interaction, Eloise strengthened, with improving poleward outflow and tightly wrapped banding features wrapping into an small eye. On January 22, Elosie significantly improved in organization as it moved southwestward across the Mozambique Channel. Later that day, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHWS), as it neared the coast of Mozambique. Later, it became a category 2-equivalent.

Current storm information

As of 00:00 UTC on 23 January, Tropical Cyclone Eloise located within 20 nautical miles of 20.1°S 35.0°E / -20.1; 35.0 (Eloise). Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 80 knots (150 km/h; 90 mph) while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 85 knots (155 km/h; 100 mph), with gusts up to 90 knots (165 km/h; 105 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 967 hPa (28.56 inHg).

For the latest official information see:

• MFR's Cyclonic Analysis and Forecast Bulletins on Tropical Cyclone 7 (Eloise)
• JTWC's Tropical Cyclone Warning for Tropical Cyclone 12S (Eloise)

Preparations

Madagascar

Ahead of landfall, humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar coordinated preparedness activities. A meeting was organized on 19 January by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) to prepare for potential assessments and/or response. Authorities devised plans, including contingency plans, evacuation plans, emergency operation centres and early warning system at the community level. Aerial assessments using photo and geo-tracking system were also planned for the impact of the storm. The local contingency plan in the north-eastern part of the country and the early warning system at the community level was activated. Emergency stocks are available in many districts in the most at-risk areas. On 18 January, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) gave the storm a green alert, which pointed to a wind impact of 0.5. The next day, GDACS upgraded the storm alert to an orange alert, which pointed to a higher 1.5 wind impact. With Eloise enhancing heavy rainfall, landslides, flash floods, and widespread flooding were expected. Moreover, waves up 6 m (20 ft) were expected in Antongil Bay.

Mozambique

According to the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM), Eloise could possibly make landfall somewhere between the Inhambane and Gaza provinces. Government officials have placed the Inhanombe and Mutamba in southern Mozambique and Buzi and Pungoe basins in central Mozambique on high alert. The newly-created National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction (INGD) – which has replaced the former National Disaster Management Institute (INGC) – closely followed Eloise's trajectory and worked with humanitarian partners to prepare for any response required. By mid-afternoon 22 January, shops across Beira were closed and multiple streets were flooded from rainfall brought by the approaching storm. The port of Beira will remain closed for about 40 hours in expectation of dangerous winds and flooding rains. A limited supply of emergency items had been stockpiled in the city. Hundreds of families were evacuation to two accommodation centers and are sheltered in tents. People in shelters are in need of food and hygiene kits, as well as COVID-19 protection.

Zimbabwe

The Meteorological Services Department in Zimbabwe has advised of continuous rains from 14 to 20 January throughout the nation, which may result in ravine flooding, flash flooding and subsequent damages to houses, roads, sewer lines and other public infrastructure in some areas.

South Africa

According to the South African Weather Service, Northern Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and northern KwaZulu are expected to be affected by heavy rains that may last into Monday. Severe risk warnings have been issued for the areas. Widespread flooding, and water-related damage to infrastructure is expected. Sipho Hlomuka, a co-operative governance and traditional affairs for KwaZulu-Natal, has placed disaster management teams on high alert.

Impact

Madagascar

On 19 January, Eloise made landfall in the north-eastern town of Antalaha, Madagascar as a tropical storm. Eloise generated heavy rains, which could generate floods and landslides in northern Madagascar. Météo-France noted on 20 January that accumulations for 100mm to 150mm were possible in 24 hours for the north-western regions of Madagascar. As of 18:00 UTC 19 January, authorities have issued a red alert (imminent danger) for the Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra and Mandritsara regions and a yellow alert (threat) for Toamasina I-II and Alaotra. All weather warnings have been lifted in Brickaville, Vatomandry, Mahanoro and Moramanga. Strong winds, reaching near gale force (64 km/h (40 mph) spread from north to south along the northwestern coast of Madagascar. Passing through Madagascar, Eloise enhanced some monsoon winds, generating rainfall up to 200mm in some places. Eloise exited Madagascar on 21 January.

Mozambique

IOM Mozambique also reported that due to heavy rainfall and discharge of water from the Chicamba dam and the Manuzi Reservoir, 19,000 people have been affected. 3 people have died so far. Since the beginning of heavy rains on 15 January, 21,500 people have been affected and over 3,900 acres of farmland has been damaged or destroyed. According to preliminary satellite analysis by UNOSAT surveying the Sofala and Manica provinces, about 2,200 km2 of land appears to be flooded, with Beira City, Buzi and Nhamatanda having the greatest number of people potentially exposed to flooding. Furthermore, the rainfall has effected 100,000 in Beria resettlement sites, which have been impacted by both Cyclone Idai and Tropical Storm Chalane.

See also

• Tropical cyclones in 2021
• Tropical Storm Chalane - A storm that took a similar path earlier in the season
• Cyclone Bonita - took a similar track and devastated the same areas in 1996
• Cyclone Idai - deadliest known South-West Indian Ocean tropical cyclone which catastrophically impacted the same region in Mozambique in 2019

External links

• Météo-France La Réunion
• Direction Générale de la Météorologie de Madagascar
• Mauritius Meteorological Services
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)