Piers Corbyn

Piers Richard Corbyn (born 10 March 1947)[1] is a well-known British meteorological consultant best known for his ability to predict the weather up to one year in advance through the study of solar activity, specifically sunspots. Contents[hide]· 1 Early life · 2 Political activism · 3 Weather Action · 4 Predictions and science · 5 References

Early life

Corbyn was born in Chippenham Wiltshire on 10 March 1947. On that same day, one of the largest recorded sunspots occurred, which became a template for his later life. He began recording weather and climate patterns at age 15, complete with homemade observation station, and entered the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine in London at age 18 and gained a first class degree in Physics in 1968. His first scientific papers were published while he was an undergraduate for work done while still at school and were published in the Royal Meteorological Society's journal Weather discussing his brine-filled barometer.[1]; in the Journal of the British Astronomical Association for measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Goegraphical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size and ahpae of Pebbles on Chesil beach in Dorset. In 1979, following some years of activism, he began studying astrophysics at Queen Mary College, London, where he began revisiting the theory between the Earth's climate and solar activity. His theories lead him to his first trial long-term prediction of cold weather for 1984/85, which eventually caused him to form Weather Action in 1995, his organization that uses his techniques to make the long-range predictions.[1] Political activism Corbyn was a leader of squatters in the north Paddington area of Westminster City Council in the mid-1970s. In 1974 he fought for a seat on the council as a "Squatters and Tenants" candidate; in 1978 he and a colleague fought as 'Decent Housing' candidates. [2] In the 1977 GLC election he was the International Marxist Group candidate for Lambeth Central. [3]. He and all the squatters in Elgin Avenue were - as a result of their campaign which included the building of barricades against eveiction - rehoused to Southwark by the GLC. He later moved from that rehousing in Rust Square to the Alvey Estate in Southwark where he became a leader of the Tenants Association. He was a member of the Labour Party and campaigns organiser, but has since left it. His brother, Jeremy Corbyn, has been Labour MP for Islington North since 1983.

Weather Action

Corbyn has primarily used the knowledge and predictions to bet on the weather in certain markets, and to act as a consultant for many corporations. Former clients of Weather Action include Yorkshire Electricity Group, now part of npower. A former employee, Mark Bailey, estimated Corbyn's forecasts as correct 70% of the time.[1] Weather Action itself claims that their record demonstrates "proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature," and has been verified in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.[4] The Journal study, the single academic work conducted involving Corbyn's work, was done by Dr. Dennis Wheeler of the University of Sunderland and took Weather Action 'likley damaging gale periods' predictions for the island of Britain for October 1995 to September 1997. Corbyn's enlisted work then (which was carried out for insurance companies) was only for the most likley periods of the strongest winds and specifically not a full forecast (although some observers later try to present it as such). Wheeler used a variety of statistical techniques to come up with success rates and concluded, "that forecasts prepared by Weather Action would repay further attention. The results provide little evidence to dismiss the observed success rates as being attributable to mere chance or good fortune. Indeed the balance of evidence indicates that the system performs better than chance although it is recognized that the margin of success differs greatly between the seasons and is lowest in winter when gales are most frequent.”[5].

Since that demonstrated forecasting skill Piers Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique (SWT) of long range forecasting has advanced to provide much more detailed long range forecasts for the British Isles, Europe and other parts of the world. Corbyn's success has netted him and his company a series of corporate accounts. Filming crews often look to him for information on weather outlooks to plan filming (PolyGram staggered their release dates and promotional tours for the motion picture Bean around these predictions), and his predictions have valued the company at £6 million at its highest point.[1]

Predictions and advances in forecasting science

Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique."[6] The technique "combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations."[1] He considers past weather patterns and solar observations, drawing correlations between solar particles and cloud cover. This work has been criticized by some scientists who claim that such variations cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere. Corbyn has made available many presentations about his general appraoches but the details of his methods are 'company property', neverthelsss he says they will be published in due course. Corbyn is also a global warming sceptic. His belief stems from the lack of historical evidence - in 22,000 years of data - that CO2 drives world tempertaures or climate, and he's been quoted as a noted dissenter in reports about the storms in Europe in 2000[7] and in Martin Durkin's documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle. In December 2006 Corbyn predicted from 11 months ahead two major storm periods for Great Britain and much of Europe (with the Netherlands on the edge of the core storm tracks) for two periods in November 2007: 'around 8th-13th' - which would include a dangerous North Sea storm surge; and 'around 25th-28th November' which would involve 'extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell' November 2007[8]. The storm for the first period was excellently confirmed with the largest North sea storm surge in at least 30years on 9th November. The Yarmouth sea defences came within eight inches of flooding and the Government evacuated 2,000 people. In Holland ALL Flood defences were raised for the first time in 30years. For the second storm period Piers announced that some solar events appeared to have changed to make the event come later so WeatherAction (www.weatheraction.com or for full storm reports www.lowefo.com ) extended the time period, in the medium range update circulated, by about 4 days into WeatherAction's next period which was also due to include very unsettled conditions. The extended period event on 1st/2nd December well confirmed the general forecasted track. The Low centre track was excellently forecast although the main storm action was a bit further yet within normal uncertainties. The event excellently confirmed the very extreme sea-state predicted from 11 months ahead - The 55ft waves on the Irish coast appear to be the largest in modern records. According to Met Eireann and the Marine Institute - see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7120574.stm the previous highest recorded waves quoted are 40 foot in 2005. In the Netherlands, for the end Nov/start December storm forecast period the media and some meteorologists mislead the public by describing Corbyn's forecast for a 'superstorm' which they defined as an apocalyptic event and Corbyn's correction to their absurd misinformation was edited out of TV reports (see www.lowefo.com ). Piers did however warn enquirers that even though Holland and Belgium were not in the core storm track strong a nd potentially damaging winds were likley. Such winds did occur in parts of Belgium and Holland (and France, Ireland, Britain, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Germany), in excess of the expectations of standard meteorology from a few days ahead and Piers subsequently received many e-mails of congratulation from people in the Nethrlands and elsewhere who had followed WeatherAction's actual forecasts. Piers later remarked that "Businesses and farmers have congratulated us on these storm forecasts for which the chance of getting either of them right by luck must be at least 100/1 against. It is sad that their are such churlish and envious people around who seek to spread misinformation about our work which is at the forefront of forecasting science". References 1. ^ a b c d e f Wired: "Everyone Complains About the Weather... Piers Corbyn Is Doing Something About It." Tom Standage, February 1999. URL accessed 14 March 2007. 2. ^ Harrow Road ward election results 3. ^ GLC elections in Lambeth 4. ^ Weather Action: "Forecasts with proven skill." URL accessed 14 March 2007. 5. ^ The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63, Issue 1, January 2001, p. 29-34: "[1]" URL accessed 19 August 2007. 6. ^ Weather Action: "WeatherAction." URL accessed 14 March 2007. 7. ^ Spiked Science: "Julian Hunt and Piers Corbyn: global warnings?" Helene Guldberg, 29 December 2000. URL accessed 14 March 2007. 8. ^ Daily Express: "Killer Storms To Lash Britain" Jo Macfarlane, 17 October 2007. URL accessed 20 November 2007.

Piers Corbyn