List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days
The following days had a declaration of a High Risk of severe weather in a certain part of the United States according to the Storm Prediction Center (and its predecessor, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center).
Such indicates a forecast of an extreme severe weather event (in most cases, a major tornado outbreak).[1] There are 92 known days since 1984 that such a declaration was issued. "Busts" indicate days that a severe weather outbreak was expected but never materialized, with little or no significant severe weather activity, or materialized well outside of the forecasted area. Limited details are available for days before the late 1990s, and it is probable that there were additional High Risk days with no online documentation, especially in the 1980s. Since reliable reports online became available, the only year with no High Risk issued was 2000.
The only month that has not recorded a known High Risk day is September. No High Risk has ever been issued west of the Great Plains.[citation needed]
Date | Area | Outbreak name | # of Tornadoes | Fatalities | Notes | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 28, 1984 | Carolinas[2] | 1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak | ≥24 tornadoes | 57 | ||
May 3, 1984 | Carolinas | |||||
May 7, 1988 | Oklahoma | 0 | 0 | Busted | ||
November 15, 1989 | Southern U.S.[3] | November 1989 Tornado Outbreak | 18 | 21 | ||
March 13, 1990 | Central U.S. | Central US Tornado Outbreak of 1990 | 56 | 2 | Unconfirmed risk level | |
May 15, 1990 | Oklahoma | 19 | 1 | |||
June 2, 1990 | Ohio Valley | Lower Ohio Valley tornado outbreak of June 1990 | 88 | 9 | ||
March 29, 1991 | Carolinas and other areas?[4] | 20 [5] | 0 | |||
April 11, 1991 | Kansas | 0 | 0 | |||
April 12, 1991 | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas | First known back-to-back High Risk days | ||||
April 26, 1991 | Kansas, Oklahoma | Andover, Kansas Tornado Outbreak | 58 | 24 | ||
April 28, 1991 | Kansas | Busted | ||||
June 16, 1992 | Midwest | [6] Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak | 65 | 1 | Second day of a three-day outbreak | |
June 17, 1992 | Great Lakes | Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak | 29 | 0 | Third day of a three-day outbreak | |
June 7, 1993 | Upper Midwest | 41 | 0 | |||
March 27, 1994 | Southern U.S. | Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1994 | 26 | 42 | ||
April 25, 1994 | Central U.S. | 29 | 3 | Numerous hail reports | ||
August 27, 1994 | Upper Midwest | 12 | 4 | Only High Risk ever issued in August | ||
November 27, 1994 | Southern U.S. | 19 | 6 | |||
April 17, 1995 | Oklahoma, Texas | 21 | 0 | Primarily a derecho event | ||
May 7, 1995 | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas | May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 32 | 3 | Day one of a 5 day event | |
May 12, 1995 | Kansas | May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 13 | 0 | Busted | |
May 13, 1995 | Ohio Valley | May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 27 | 3 | Included a major derecho | |
May 17, 1995 | Kansas | May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 8 | 0 | Busted | |
April 19, 1996 | Illinois, Indiana | April 1996 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 74 | 1 | ||
May 26, 1996 | Kansas, Oklahoma | ? | 0 | also a derecho | ||
May 2, 1997 | Mississippi, Alabama | 8 | 1 | also a derecho event | ||
July 1, 1997 | Upper Mississippi Valley | ? | 0 | Moderate tornado outbreak reorganized into a progressive derecho | ||
February 10, 1998 | Texas, Louisiana | ? | 0 | Rare winter serial derecho | ||
April 8, 1998 | Alabama[7] | Birmingham Tornado of April 1998 | 15 | 41 | F5 damage in suburban Birmingham | |
April 15, 1998 | Middle Mississippi Valley | 1998 Nashville tornado outbreak | 23 | 4 | Day 1 of outbreak | |
April 16, 1998 | Tennessee | 1998 Nashville tornado outbreak | 38 | 8 | Day 2 of outbreak | |
May 31, 1998 | Northeastern U.S.[8][9][10][11] | Major derecho and tornado outbreak | 39 | 7 | Only High Risk ever issued in the Northeast | |
June 14, 1998 | Ohio Valley | 22 | 0 | Followed by a progressive derecho | ||
January 21, 1999 | Arkansas[12][13] | January 1999 tornado outbreak sequence | 99 | 9 | Only High Risk ever issued in January | |
March 8, 1999 | Arkansas, Louisiana | ? | 0 | Busted; few tornadoes with some scattered hail and wind | ||
April 8, 1999 | Iowa, Missouri, Illinois | Cincinnati Tornado of April 1999 | 56 | 6 | ||
May 3, 1999 | Oklahoma, Kansas[14] | 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak | 61 | 48 | Strong winds ever recorded, 315 mph | |
May 4, 1999 | Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas[14] | 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak | 39 | 1 | Day 2 of outbreak | |
May 5, 1999 | Southern U.S. | 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak | 18 | 3 | First and only occurrence of three consecutive High Risk days. Major derecho event | |
June 5, 1999 | South Dakota, Nebraska[15] | ? | 0 | Busted; isolated tornadoes and scattered wind A shortwave ridge maintained a capping inversion.[16] | ||
April 6, 2001 | Oklahoma, Kansas[17] | 0 | 0 | Serial derecho with widespread wind damage | ||
April 11, 2001 | Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin[18] | April 10-11, 2001 tornado outbreak | 40 | 2[19] | ||
June 11, 2001 | Minnesota, Wisconsin[20] | 0 | 0 | Progressive derecho with widespread wind damage. Unofficial thunderstorm wind gust of 119 miles per hour (192 km/h) near Atwater, Minnesota.[21] | ||
October 13, 2001 | U.S. Gulf Coast[22] | 31 | 0 | |||
October 24, 2001 | Midwest[23] | North Central Indiana-Michigan Tornado Outbreak | 25 | 2 | plus a major serial derecho | |
April 16, 2002 | Upper Midwest[24] | ? | 0 | Busted; isolated wind damage and tornadoes | ||
July 31, 2002 | Minnesota, Wisconsin[25] | 0 | 0 | Busted; isolated wind damage | ||
November 10, 2002 | Midwest and Southern U.S.[26] | Veterans Day Weekend Outbreak | 76 | 36 | ||
December 23, 2002 | Texas, Louisiana[27] | 15 | 0 | Only High Risk ever issued in December, Busted | ||
April 6, 2003 | Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi[28] | 23 | 0 | |||
May 4, 2003 | Central U.S.[29] | May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence | 86 | 38 | Day 5 of outbreak | |
May 5, 2003 | Southern U.S.[30] | May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence | 22 | 0 | Day 6 of outbreak | |
May 8, 2003 | Kansas, Oklahoma[31] | May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence | 42 | 0 | Day 9 of outbreak | |
May 10, 2003 | Central U.S.[32] | May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence | 60 | 0 | Day 11 of outbreak | |
May 15, 2003 | Texas, Oklahoma[33] | 0 | ||||
March 4, 2004 | Texas, Oklahoma[34] | 0 | 0 | Reorganized into a large serial derecho | ||
May 22, 2004 | Nebraska, Iowa[35] | May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence | 68 | 1 | ||
May 24, 2004 | Nebraska, Iowa[36] | May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 54 | 1 | Also a major derecho event | |
May 29, 2004 | Central U.S.[37] | May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 80 | 3 | Day 1 of outbreak | |
May 30, 2004 | Central U.S.[38] | May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 86 | 2 | Largest High Risk area ever issued, Day 2 of outbreak | |
April 11, 2005 | Louisiana, Mississippi[39] | 0 | 1 | Busted | ||
June 4, 2005 | Central U.S.[40] | 44 | 0 | |||
November 15, 2005 | Midwest and Southern U.S.[41] | Mid-November 2005 Tornado Outbreak | 50 | 2 | ||
March 12, 2006 | Midwest[42] | March 2006 Tornado Outbreak Sequence | 62 | 8 | ||
April 6, 2006 | Nebraska, Kansas[43] | April 6–8, 2006 Tornado Outbreak | 13 | 0 | Day 1 of outbreak | |
April 7, 2006 | Southern U.S.[44] | April 6–8, 2006 Tornado Outbreak | 49 | 13 | First High Risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event)[45] | |
March 1, 2007 | Southern U.S.[46] | February–March 2007 Tornado Outbreak | 37 | 20 | ||
April 13, 2007 | Texas[47] | Tornadoes of 2007#April 13–15 | ? | 1 | Busted | |
April 24, 2007 | Texas[48] | ? | ? | Busted | ||
May 5, 2007 | Nebraska, Kansas[49] | May 2007 Tornado Outbreak | 84 | 2 | Day 2 of a 3 day event | |
June 7, 2007 | Upper Midwest[50] | ? | 0 | reorganized into a moderate wind event | ||
February 5, 2008 | Middle Mississippi Valley[51] | 2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak | 87 | 57 | ||
March 15, 2008 | Georgia, South Carolina[52] | 2008 Atlanta tornado outbreak | 44 | 2 | ||
May 22, 2008 | Kansas[53] | Late-May 2008 tornado outbreak sequence | 24 | 1 | Day 1 of major outbreak | |
May 29, 2008 | Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota[54] | Late-May 2008 tornado outbreak sequence | 42 | 0 | Day 8 of event | |
June 5, 2008 | Midwest[55] | June 2008 tornado outbreak sequence | 15 | 0 | Day 2 of outbreak, major derecho event | |
April 10, 2009 | Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee [56] | April 2009 tornado outbreak | 59 | 2 | Day 2 of outbreak | |
April 26, 2009 | Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas [57] | Busted; few tornadoes reported | ||||
April 24, 2010 | Southern U.S. [58] | April 2010 tornado outbreak | 39 | 10[59] | ||
April 30, 2010 | Arkansas[60] | April–May 2010 tornado outbreak | 27 | 1[61] | Day 2 of outbreak | |
May 1, 2010 | Middle Mississippi Valley[62] | April–May 2010 tornado outbreak | 35 | 4 | Major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm | |
May 10, 2010 | Oklahoma, Kansas [63] | May 2010 Oklahoma tornado outbreak | 67 | 3 | ||
May 19, 2010 | Oklahoma [64] | Mid-May 2010 tornado outbreak | 13 | 0 | ||
October 26, 2010 | Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan [65] | October 2010 North American storm complex | 68 | 0 | Event set record for the deepest extratropical low over the continental US, major derecho event | |
April 16, 2011 | North Carolina, Virginia [66] | April 14–16, 2011 tornado outbreak | 52 | 26 | ||
April 26, 2011 | South-Central U.S.[67] | Super Outbreak of 2011 | 119 | 4 | Day 2 of outbreak, mostly weak and short lived tornadoes | |
April 27, 2011 | Southern U.S.[68] | Super Outbreak of 2011 | 169 | 313 | Deadliest High Risk day, event set record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period | |
May 24, 2011 | Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[69] | May 21–26, 2011 tornado outbreak sequence | 34 | 17 | Day 4 of outbreak | |
May 25, 2011 | Midwest [70] | May 21–26, 2011 tornado outbreak sequence | 73 | 0 | Day 5 of outbreak | |
March 2, 2012 | Midwest and Southern U.S. [71] | Early March 2012 tornado outbreak | 58 | 42 | ||
April 14, 2012 | Central U.S. [72] | April 13–15, 2012 tornado outbreak | Surveys Underway | 5 | Second High Risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event) and the first ever issued on the initial Day 2 outlook. [73] |
See also
References
- ^ Novy, Chris (2006-02-14). "SPC Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks". SPC and its Products. Storm Prediction Center.
{{cite web}}
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ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19840328/conv_outlook_19z.jpg
- ^ http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/1989/11_15/graphics/swody15z.jpg
- ^ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20110416/
- ^ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getsevereplot.pl?Month=03&Day=29&Year=1991
- ^ Ostby, Frederick P. (1992). "Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center" (PDF). National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Retrieved 2008-08-02. [dead link]
- ^ NOAA's National Weather Service - Birmingham, Alabama
- ^ Derecho - May 31, 1998
- ^ The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1998
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 31, 1998 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 31, 1998 1500 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ http://www.targetarea.net/pic3/high21.jpg
- ^ Front Page Display and Description-Example
- ^ a b Eric Nguyen's 1999 Chase Documents!
- ^ http://www.nwas.org/ej/2007-EJ3/figure_1.htm
- ^ Identification of Inhibiting Factors of a Null Significant Tornado Event
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2001". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for April 11, 2001". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Fox News Story (April 12, 2001). "Two dead in Agency Twister". Retrieved 2008-04-10.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for June 11, 2001". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/day_in_weather_history/june_wx_history.pdf
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for October 13, 2001". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for October 24, 2001". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for April 16, 2002". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for July 31, 2002". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for November 10, 2002". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for December 23, 2002". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 4, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 5, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 8, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 10, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather report for May 15, 2003". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for March 4, 2004". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 22, 2004". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 24, 2004". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 29, 2004". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 30, 2004". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for April 11, 2005". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for June 4, 2005". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for November 15, 2005". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for March 12, 2006". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2006". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 7, 2006". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 7, 2006 (Day 2)". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for March 1, 2007". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for April 13, 2007". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for April 24, 2007". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for May 5, 2007". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for June 7, 2007". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center (2008). "Severe weather outlook for February 5, 2008". Retrieved 2008-03-12.
- ^ Storm Prediction Center Mar 15, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 22, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 29, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center June 5, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 10, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 26, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 24, 2010 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 30, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36882634/ns/weather/
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 1, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 10, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center October 26, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 16, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 26, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center May 25, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center March 2, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 14, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
- ^ Storm Prediction Center April 13, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook