User:WereSpielChequers/editor decline after July 2015

In July 2015 Visual Editor became the default for new editors on the English language Wikipedia. These tables highlight the change to numbers of newly registered editors committing their tenth edit on Wikipedia, and all registered editors committing five or more edits in months before and after that change. Changes are measured against the same month the year before in order to compensate for seasonal change and differing length of months.

Figures after June 2015 are in Italics to denote the era when WP:Visual Editor was default for new registered accounts.

This table highlights the change to numbers of new editors committing their tenth edit on Wikipedia before and after July 2015.

auto confirmed (10th edit) before and after July 2015 (as per March 2016)

Month	2013	2014	2015	2016	Change	percent
November	6,426	6,528			102	1.6%
December	6,198	6,545			347	5.6%
January		6,385	6,647		262	4.1%
February		6,209	6,636		427	6.9%
March		6,644	7,445		801	12.1%
April		6,336	6,854		518	8.2%
May		6,825	6,528		(-297)	(-4.4%)
June		6,267	6,357		90	1.4%
July		6,863	6,484		(-379)	(-5.5%)
August		6,639	6,180		(-459)	(-6.1%)
September		5,833	5,559		(-274)	(-4.7%)
October		6,642	5,823		(-819)	(-12.3%)
November		6,528	5,901		(-627)	(-9.9%)
December		6,545	5,329		(-1,216)	(-18.6%)
January			6,647	5,458	(-1,189)	-17.9%
February			6,636	5,130	(-1,506)	-22.7%

This table highlights the change to numbers of editors committing 5 or more edits per month on Wikipedia before and after July 2015.

auto confirmed (10th edit) before and after July 2015 (as per Feb 2016)

Month	2013	2014	2015	2016	Change	percent
November	6,430	6,525			95	1.5%
December	6,206	6,540			334	5.4%
January		6,382	6,627		245	3.8%
February		6,205	6,641		436	7%
March		6,640	7,445		805	12.1%
April		6,344	6,859		515	8.12%
May		6,823	6,504		(-319)	(-4.68%)
June		6,255	6,353		98	1.57%
July		6,869	6,468		(-401)	(-5.84)
August		6,638	6,159		(-479)	(-7.51)
September		5,822	5,553		(-269)	(-4.62)
October		6,639	5,797		(-842)	(-12.68)
November		6,525	5,854		(-671)	(-10.28)
December		6,540	5,271		(-1,269)	(-19.40)
January			6,627	5,196	(-1,431)	-21.6%

This table highlights the change to numbers of editors committing 5 or more edits per month on Wikipedia before and after July 2015.

Editors saving five or more edits per month before and after July 2015

Month	2013	2014	2015	2016	Change	percent
November	29,788	30,679			891	3%
December	29,610	30,635			1,025	3.5%
January		31,156	32,326		1,170	3.8%
February		29,322	31,047		1,725	5.9%
March		31,213	34,082		2,869	9.2%
April		30,187	31,844		1,657	5.49%
May		31,737	31,456		(-319)	(-1.01%)
June		29,854	30,455		601	2.01%
July		31,691	31,076		(-615)	(-1.94%)
August		31,479	30,602		(-877)	(-2.79%)
September		29,076	29,346		270	-0.93%
October		31,046	30,424		(-622)	(-2%)
November		30,679	30,408		(-271)	(-0.88%)
December		30,635	29,300		(-1,335)	(-4.36%)
January			32,326	30,993	(-1,333)	-4.12%

Other hypothesised explanations for the slump are:

• There could be a glitch in the figures. The January figures showed a change to December which had been affected by a glitch.
• The general shift of internet users from desktop to mobile (editing on mobile is much less practical than on a PC, so the conversion rate from readers to editors is going to be less if they are on tablets and dramatically less if they are on smartphones). However this is a gradual process that had been going on for years and unlikely to cause such a swing from slow growth to sharp decline.
• Firefox has changed their browser to offer a "reader friendly" view of Wikipedia - removing the editing features. One would expect this to have a negative impact on the recruitment of editors, but I'm not sure when the change took place. An analysis of newly autoconfirmed editors by browser and recent month would test that theory.

All stats sourced from stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaEN.htm retrieved 26/2/2016