Cyclone Batsirai

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Moderate Tropical Storm Batsirai
Current storm status
Moderate tropical storm (MFR)
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:18:00 UTC, 6 February
Location:23°12′S 43°18′E / 23.2°S 43.3°E / -23.2; 43.3 (Moderate Tropical Storm Batsirai) ± 20 nmi
About 236 nmi (437 km; 272 mi) E of Europa Island
Sustained winds:35 knots (65 km/h; 40 mph) (10-min mean)
gusting to 50 knots (95 km/h; 60 mph)
40 knots (75 km/h; 45 mph) (1-min mean)
Pressure:988 hPa (29.18 inHg)
Movement:WSW at 10 knots (19 km/h; 12 mph)
See latest official information.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is a decaying tropical cyclone currently affecting Madagascar. The second tropical disturbance, first tropical cyclone and the first intense tropical cyclone of the 2021–22 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Batsirai formed from a tropical disturbance first noted on 24 January. It fluctuated in intensity and became a moderate tropical storm on 27 January, after which it unexpectedly intensified into an intense tropical cyclone. It then weakened, and struggled to intensify through the coming days due to present wind shear and dry air, where it weakened after some time. Afterwards, it entered into much more favorable conditions, and it rapidly intensified into a high-end Category 4 cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale while moving towards Madagascar. The storm subsequently underwent an eyewall replacement cyclone for the next day, and fluctuated in intensity before making landfall in Madagascar as a Category 3 cyclone, and rapidly weakening due to the immense mountainous terrain thereafter.

Mauritius and Réunion both experienced damage from the storm, though effects were relatively minor. 2 people were killed in the former country. Madagascar prepared recovery supplies as the storm approached, with worries of significant flooding rising due to the deforested geography of the country. Millions were expected to be affected. The United Nations supported preparation and relief efforts for after the storm as well. The storm made landfall in the country early on 5 February, bringing heavy effects and majorly disrupting power and communication throughout the affected areas. 10 deaths have been reported in the country.[1]

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

Cyclone Batsirai originated from an area of convection which was designated as Invest 96S over the eastern part of the basin, located approximately 493 nmi (913 km; 567 mi) from the Cocos Islands half and hour later, along with its disorganized convection over a board LLC. the JTWC[nb 1] gave a low chance for potential cyclogenesis in next 24 hours.[2] A day later at 00:30 UTC, the agency upgraded to medium after the system gradually improved its convective pattern.[3] Later at 21:30 UTC the same day, the agency issued a TCFA for Invest 96S, after noting its obscure LLC.[4] Meanwhile, at midday of 25 January, the MFR[nb 2] recognized the same low pressure system and later upgraded it to a tropical disturbance status at 06:00 UTC the next day.[6][7] According to them, the system's convection had shown signs of gradual organization since 24 January. The center had became better defined with low-level clouds converging towards it in a defined circular pattern, suggesting that a closed circulation had formed.[7] The MFR further upgraded it to a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC the same day, as it continued to improve its convective structure along its low-level center.[8] After its convective activity briefly interrupted after 18:00 UTC due to dry air,[9] the JTWC recognized the system as a tropical cyclone at 03:00 UTC the next day.[10]

Cyclone Batsirai near its initial peak intensity on 27 January

The MFR followed three hours later, by upgrading it to a moderate tropical storm and named it Batsirai.[11] Between 06:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC, Batsirai underwent a rapid deepening and intensified from a moderate tropical storm to an intense tropical cyclone within a span of just three hours. According to the MFR, it was favoured by the very small size of the system and its fast movement. It had also established an inner core of 75 to 90 km (45 to 55 mi) in diameter.[12] Two hours later, the JTWC also upgraded it to a Category 2 tropical cyclone, as it developed a small eye at about 7 nmi (13 km; 8.1 mi) in diameter.[13]

However, by 18:00 UTC, it started to rapidly decline after its eye quickly collapsed and the cloud tops had warmed since. Because of these reasons, the MFR downgraded to a tropical cyclone.[14] At midnight of 28 January, it further downgraded to a moderate tropical storm, after further weakening of the convective structure.[15] Three hours later, the JTWC downgraded back to a tropical storm status.[16]

Batsirai resumed its intensification after upgrading to a severe tropical storm status at 06:00 UTC the next day.[17] Nine hours later, the JTWC upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.[18] At 03:00 UTC of 30 January, the JTWC further upgraded to a Category 2 tropical cyclone after noting a well-defined central dense overcast (CDO) and a microwave eye feature.[19] The MFR further upgraded it to a tropical cyclone status at midday.[20] Three hours later, the JTWC upgraded to a Category 3 tropical cyclone, as its eyewall had expanded and also developed a 5 nmi (9.3 km; 5.8 mi) wide pinhole-eye.[21] However it was short lived and it re-declined to a Category 1 status by 03:00 UTC of 1 February, as its pinhole-shaped eye just collapsed shortly and its eyewall became disorganized. Possibly because of its struggle to maintain its convective structure against the ever increasing vertical wind shear (VWS), despite high sea-surface temperature (SST).[22][23] But at 15:00 UTC the same day, it did a comeback to a Category 2 status, as it managed to consolidate and its eye feature re-appeared in the satellite imagery.[24] Three hours later, the MFR upgraded it to a intense tropical cyclone status.[25]

By 03:00 UTC of 2 February, it went for another round of rapid intensification from a Category 2 to a Category 4 tropical cyclone, according to the JTWC.[26] Its eyewall rapidly organized and also developed a 15 nmi (28 km; 17 mi) wide eye.[26] After reaching its peak at 12:00 UTC, the eyewall replacement cycle, at 15:00 UTC as satellite imagery depicted formation of another eyewall and also showing signs of weakening.[27][28]

Current storm information

As of 18:00 UTC 6 February, Moderate Tropical Storm Batsirai is located within 20 nautical miles of 23°12′S 43°18′E / 23.2°S 43.3°E / -23.2; 43.3 (Batsirai), approximately 236 nmi (437 km; 272 mi) east of Europa Island. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 35 knots (65 km/h; 40 mph), with gusts up to 50 knots (95 km/h; 60 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 40 knots (75 km/h; 45 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 988 hPa (29.18 inHg) and the system moving southwest at 13 knots (24 km/h; 15 mph).

For the latest official information see:

Preparations

Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensifying on 2 February

Mauritius

A class IV cyclone warning was issued on 2 February as Batsirai neared the island.[29]

Madagascar

The landfall area of Batsirai was projected to accumulate up to 250 mm (9.8 in) to 500 mm (19.6 in) of rainfall. The country's capital, Antananarivo, was predicted to have 150 mm (5.9 in) of rainfall.[30] Search and Rescue teams were deployed in Brickaville, Manakara, and Morondava. The START Network set aside $567,000 to provide assistance. Emergency stock lists were updated by HCT members and help restock humanitarian items. The country's government's disaster management agency worked with UNOSAT as well, and aerial assistance was also prepared as Batsirai approached.[31] Extensive flooding in the east, southeast, and central highlands and major damage were anticipated. The storm was also expected to cause more damage than usual due to the deforestation the country experienced in the last 20 years.[32] The third largest city in the nation, Antsirabe, was forecasted to receive in excess of 10 inches of rainfall.[33]

Batsirai was expected to worsen food scarcities and emergencies in the country. Schools were closed on 4 February, and residents in low-lying and coastal areas were advised to leave.[34] The storm was also feared to hamper the relief effects of Tropical Storm Ana weeks before.[35] A predicted 4.4 million people were expected to be affected by the storm across 14 districts, with 595,000 directly. More than 150,000 inhabitants were expected be displaced. The IFRC launched a fundraiser to help with potential victims of the storm.[36][37][38]

Waves of up to 15 m (50 ft) were forecasted as the storm closed in on the coast. The United Nations worked with aid agencies to help with preparedness and the aftermath. Humanitarian items were stockpiled, and rescue aircraft were put on standby. A spokesman for the UN's organization OCHA, stated the impact of Batsirai was expected to be "considerable".[39][40]

Impact

Mauritius

Cyclone Batsirai shortly before landfall in Madagascar on 5 February

Along with the airport, all transport services were closed due to the impact. Wind gusts reached 155 km/h (96 mph),[41] and rain totalled 7 in (180 mm) in other areas of the island country. Two deaths were reported.[42][43] Trees had been uprooted in many areas, and at least 7,500 homes faced power outages.[44] A total of 138 people sought refuge in evacuation centers.[45] The Mahébourg waterfront was damaged by large waves, with several chairs and tables swept into the sea.[46]

Réunion

At least 36,000 people on the island lost power as Batsirai approached.[47] Several people were injured, with the storm causing carbon monoxide poisoning in 10 people.[48] 11 sailors were stranded in an oil tanker during the storm, and were rescued on 4 February.[49]

Madagascar

Communication was sparse initially when the storm made landfall. Batsirai's conditions caused power outages and forced many people to move into shelters. Trees were felled and power grids were knocked out, as well has homes being destroyed.[50] At least 45,000 people were displaced by the storm. Several houses had their roofs completely blown away, and many large coconut palm trees were blown over. Some houses were reduced to just wooden frames, and a survivor said the damage resembled a "fire", and that it was the "strongest cyclone [anyone] had experienced". Mananjary and Manakara were particularly heavy hit. A large portion of Madagascar was still waterlogged from Ana weeks earlier, and the arrival of Batsirai worsened the effects.[51][52] So far, 10 deaths have been reported.[1]

Nosy Varika was strongly damaged. An official described the damage as if they were "bombed", with 95% of buildings being reported as destroyed. Floods cut access to the town. Electric poles fell, and roofs were torn off in the city of Fianarantsoa, which was also heavily flooded. A landslide was caused by the cyclone in the region of Haute Matsiatra.[1]

Aftermath

Madagascar

Schools and churches prepared to shelter those displaced around Mananjary.[1]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force task force that issues tropical cyclone warnings for the Indian Ocean and other regions.
  2. ^ Météo-France's meteorological office in Réunion (MFR) is the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the South-West Indian Ocean, tracking all tropical cyclones south of the equator, from the east coast of Africa to 90° E.[5]

References

  1. ^ a b c d Rabary, Lovasoa (6 February 2022). "Cyclone kills at least 10 in Madagascar, destroying homes and cutting power". Reuters. Archived from the original on 6 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  2. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean Reissued (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 23 January 2022. Archived from the original on 23 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
  3. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean Reissued (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 24 January 2022. Archived from the original on 24 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
  4. ^ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 96S) (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 24 January 2022. Archived from the original on 24 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
  5. ^ Philippe Caroff; et al. (1 April 2011). Operational procedures of TC satellite analysis at RSMC La Réunion (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. pp. 3–5. Retrieved 7 April 2020.
  6. ^ "Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwestern Indian Ocean" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 25 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  7. ^ a b "Tropical Disturbance 2 Warning Number 1/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 26 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  8. ^ "Tropical Depression 2 Warning Number 2/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 26 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  9. ^ "Tropical Depression 2 Warning Number 3/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 26 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  10. ^ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Eight) Warning No. 1 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 27 January 2022. Archived from the original on 27 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
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  12. ^ "*CORRECTED* Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (Batsirai) Warning Number 6/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 27 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  13. ^ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai) Warning No. 2 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 27 January 2022. Archived from the original on 27 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
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  15. ^ "Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (Batsirai) Warning Number 8/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 28 January 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  17. ^ "Severe Tropical Storm 2 (Batsirai) Warning Number 13/2/20212022" (PDF). La Réunion, France: Météo-France. 29 January 2022. Retrieved 31 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  23. ^ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai) Warning No. 11 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 31 January 2022. Archived from the original on 31 January 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
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  26. ^ a b Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai) Warning No. 13 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 1 February 2022. Archived from the original on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
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  29. ^ Par La Rédaction (2 February 2022). "Un avertissement de cyclone de classe 4 est en vigueur à Maurice" [A class 4 cyclone warning is in effect in Mauritius]. L'Express (in French). Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  30. ^ CNN, Pedram Javaheri (2 February 2022). "Rapidly intensified Cyclone Batsirai bears down on Madagascar, weeks after deadly floods". CNN. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
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  32. ^ "Bracing for Batsirai". NASA Earth Observatory. 4 February 2022. Archived from the original on 5 February 2022. Retrieved 5 February 2022.
  33. ^ Masters, Jeff (3 February 2022). "Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Batsirai headed for vulnerable Madagascar » Yale Climate Connections". Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
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  41. ^ Par La Rédaction (3 February 2022). "Batsirai: aucun avertissement de cyclone n'est en vigueur à Maurice" [Batsirai: no cyclone warning is in effect in Mauritius]. L'Express (in French). Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  42. ^ ion (3 February 2022). "Batsirai fait deux victimes" [Batsirai kills two]. ionnews.mu (in French). Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
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  44. ^ "Thousands without power as cyclone winds hit Mauritius". ARY NEWS. 2 February 2022. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
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  46. ^ Par La Rédaction (2 February 2022). "Le Mahébourg Waterfront face aux coups de boutoir de Batsirai" [The Mahébourg Waterfront faced with batsirai's battering]. L'Express (in French). Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  47. ^ "36 000 clients privés d'électricité" [36,000 customers without electricity]. Journal de l'île de La Réunion (in French). 2 February 2022. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
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  50. ^ Rabary, Lovasoa (5 February 2022). "Cyclone Batsirai destroys homes and knocks out power in Madagascar". Reuters. Archived from the original on 6 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  51. ^ Press, The Associated (6 February 2022). "An estimated 45,000 people have been displaced by a cyclone in Madagascar". NPR. Archived from the original on 6 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
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External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Cyclone Batsirai.
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