Junkyard tornado: Difference between revisions

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Named for the [[astrophysicist]] Sir [[Fred Hoyle]], '''Hoyle's fallacy''' refers to a specific and common misrepresentation of [[evolutionary]] theory.<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"> [http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations] - An explanation at the [[TalkOrigins Archive]] by Ian Musgrave Last Update: December 21, 1998</ref>
'''Hoyle's fallacy''' is a term used by [[evolutionary]] scientists for the statistical analysis of Sir [[Fred Hoyle]].<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"> [http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations] - An explanation at the [[TalkOrigins Archive]] by Ian Musgrave Last Update: December 21, 1998</ref>


Hoyle's formulation concerns the probability that a [[protein]] molecule could achieve a [[function (biology)|functional]] sequence of [[amino acids]] by chance alone. He calculates this as being of approximately the same order of magnitude as the probability that a hurricane could sweep through a junkyard and randomly assemble a [[Boeing 747]].<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"/>
Hoyle's formulation concerns the probability that a [[protein]] molecule could achieve a [[function (biology)|functional]] sequence of [[amino acids]] by chance alone. He calculates this as being of approximately the same order of magnitude as the probability that a hurricane could sweep through a junkyard and randomly assemble a [[Boeing 747]].<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"/>


Hoyle's Fallacy is a mainstay of [[creationist]], [[intelligent design]], [[orthogenetic]] and other anti-Darwinian criticisms of evolution. The reason why it is a [[fallacy]] has been explained at length by [[Richard Dawkins]], principally in his two books ''[[The Blind Watchmaker]]'' and ''[[Climbing Mount Improbable]]''.<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"/> He has expanded the argument in ''[[The God Delusion]]'', calling it the [[Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit]].
Hoyle's argument is a mainstay of [[creationist]], [[intelligent design]], [[orthogenetic]] and other criticisms of evolution. It has been labeled a [[fallacy]] by [[Richard Dawkins]], principally in his two books ''[[The Blind Watchmaker]]'' and ''[[Climbing Mount Improbable]]''.<ref name="Abiogenesis Calculations"/> He has expanded the argument in ''[[The God Delusion]]'', calling it the [[Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit]].


As Ian Musgrave explains in ''Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations'':
According to Ian Musgrave in''Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations'':
{{quote|These people, including Fred, have committed one or more of the following errors.
{{quote|These people, including Fred, have committed one or more of the following errors.
#They calculate the probability of the formation of a "modern" protein, or even a complete bacterium with all "modern" proteins, by random events. This is not the [[abiogenesis]] theory at all.
#They calculate the probability of the formation of a "modern" protein, or even a complete bacterium with all "modern" proteins, by random events. This is not the [[abiogenesis]] theory at all.

Revision as of 20:52, 15 November 2008

Hoyle's fallacy is a term used by evolutionary scientists for the statistical analysis of Sir Fred Hoyle.[1]

Hoyle's formulation concerns the probability that a protein molecule could achieve a functional sequence of amino acids by chance alone. He calculates this as being of approximately the same order of magnitude as the probability that a hurricane could sweep through a junkyard and randomly assemble a Boeing 747.[1]

Hoyle's argument is a mainstay of creationist, intelligent design, orthogenetic and other criticisms of evolution. It has been labeled a fallacy by Richard Dawkins, principally in his two books The Blind Watchmaker and Climbing Mount Improbable.[1] He has expanded the argument in The God Delusion, calling it the Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit.

According to Ian Musgrave inLies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations:

These people, including Fred, have committed one or more of the following errors.

  1. They calculate the probability of the formation of a "modern" protein, or even a complete bacterium with all "modern" proteins, by random events. This is not the abiogenesis theory at all.
  2. They assume that there is a fixed number of proteins, with fixed sequences for each protein, that are required for life.
  3. They calculate the probability of sequential trials, rather than simultaneous trials.
  4. They misunderstand what is meant by a probability calculation.
  5. They seriously underestimate the number of functional enzymes/ribozymes present in a group of random sequences.[1]

See also

Sources and notes

  1. ^ a b c d Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations - An explanation at the TalkOrigins Archive by Ian Musgrave Last Update: December 21, 1998
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