View source for 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary

{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]] -->
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2016 [[Vermont]] Republican presidential primary
| country = Vermont
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2012 United States presidential election in Vermont#Republican primary
| previous_year = 2012
| next_election = 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary
| next_year = 2020
| image_size = x125px
| outgoing_members = [[2016 United States presidential election in Virginia#Republican primary|VA]]
| elected_members = [[2016 United States presidential election in Kansas#Republican caucus|KS]]
| election_date = {{Start date|2016|03|01}}
| votes_for_election = 16 pledged delegates to the [[2016 Republican National Convention]]
| image1 = [[File:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| candidate1 = '''[[Donald Trump]]'''
| home_state1 = [[New York (state)|New York]]
| color1 = 283681
| delegate_count1 = '''8'''
| popular_vote1 = '''19,974'''
| percentage1 = '''32.34%'''
| image2 = [[File:John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| candidate2 = [[John Kasich]]
| home_state2 = [[Ohio]]
| color2 = 00B487
| delegate_count2 = '''8'''
| popular_vote2 = 18,534
| percentage2 = 30.01%
| image4 = [[File:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| candidate4 = [[Marco Rubio]]
| home_state4 = [[Florida]]
| color4 = C60E3B
| delegate_count4 = 0
| popular_vote4 = 11,781
| percentage4 = 19.08%
| image5 = [[File:Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| candidate5 = [[Ted Cruz]]
| home_state5 = [[Texas]]
| color5 = d4aa00
| delegate_count5 = 0
| popular_vote5 = 5,932
| percentage5 = 9.61%
| map_image = File:2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary - Results by municipality (shaded).svg
| map_size = 250px
}}
{{Elections in Vermont sidebar}}
The '''2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary''' was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during [[Super Tuesday]].

[[Donald Trump]] held a big edge in Vermont polls, with [[John Kasich]] and [[Marco Rubio]] splitting much of the rest of the vote.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Cox |first=Amanda |last2=Katz |first2=Josh |last3=Quealy |first3=Kevin |date=2016-03-01 |title=Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight’s Final Republican Delegate Count |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html,%20https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html |access-date=2022-06-19 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref> However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count.

== Polling ==
{| class="wikitable"
! style="width:180px;" |Poll source
! style="width:135px;" |Date
! style="width:100px;" |1st
! style="width:100px;" |2nd
! style="width:100px;" |3rd
!Other
|- style="background:Moccasin;"
|Primary results<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-R Primary results]</ref>
|March 1, 2016
|'''[[Donald Trump]]32.34%'''
|[[John Kasich]]30.01%
|[[Marco Rubio]]19.08%
|[[Ted Cruz]] 9.61%, [[Ben Carson]] 4.13%, [[Jeb Bush]] 1.79%, [[Rand Paul]] 0.68%, [[Chris Christie]] 0.58%, [[Carly Fiorina]] 0.34%, [[Rick Santorum]] 0.27%
|-
|Castleton University/Vermont
Public Radio<ref>{{cite web |date=22 February 2016 |title=The VPR Poll: The Races, The Issues And The Full Results |url=http://digital.vpr.net/post/vpr-poll-races-issues-and-full-results#vpr-poll-feb2016-files-downloads |access-date=23 February 2016 |work=The Castleton Polling Institute}}</ref>

Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118
|February 3–17, 2016
| {{party shading/Republican}} |'''Donald Trump<br />32.4%'''
|Marco Rubio
16.9%
|Ted Cruz
10.5%
|John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1%
|}

==Results==
{| class="wikitable sortable plainrowheaders" style="text-align:right;"
|+ style="background-color:#f2f2f2;margin-bottom:-1px;border:1px solid #aaa;padding:0.2em 0.4em;" |2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
! rowspan="2" |Candidate
! colspan="2" |Vote<ref>{{Cite web|title=VT Elections Database » 2016 President Republican Primary|url=https://electionarchive.vermont.gov/elections/view/79139/|access-date=2020-06-17|website=VT Elections Database|language=en-US}}</ref>
! rowspan="2" |Delegates<ref>{{Cite web|title=Vermont Republican Delegation 2016|url=https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-R#0301|access-date=2020-06-17|website=www.thegreenpapers.com}}</ref>
|-
!#
!%
|-
|- {{party shading/Republican}}
| style="text-align:left;" |'''[[Donald Trump]]'''
|'''19,974'''
|'''32.52'''
| style="text-align:center;" |'''8'''
|- {{party shading/Republican}}
| style="text-align:left;" |'''[[John Kasich]]'''
|18,534
|30.17
| style="text-align:center;" |'''8'''
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Marco Rubio]]
|11,781
|19.18
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Ted Cruz]]
|5,932
|9.66
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Ben Carson]]
|2,551
|4.15
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Jeb Bush]] <small>(withdrawn)</small>
|1,106
|1.80
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Rand Paul]] <small>(withdrawn)</small>
|423
|0.69
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Chris Christie]] <small>(withdrawn)</small>
|361
|0.59
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Carly Fiorina]] <small>(withdrawn)</small>
|212
|0.35
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Rick Santorum]] <small>(withdrawn)</small>
|164
|0.27
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |Write-ins
|390
|0.63
| style="text-align:center;" |0
|- class="sortbottom"
!Total valid votes
!61,428
!100%
!16
|}

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.

== Analysis ==
Vermont's voter base is much more [[moderate]] and [[Irreligion in the United States|irreligious]] than the [[Southern United States|Southern]] [[Super Tuesday]] contests.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Lipka |first=Michael |title=A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/25/a-closer-look-at-religion-in-the-super-tuesday-states/ |access-date=2022-06-19 |website=Pew Research Center |language=en-US}}</ref> [[Exit poll]]s by [[National Election Pool|Edison Research]] showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat [[Conservatism in the United States|conservative]] voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won [[Political moderate|moderates]] with 40% to Trump's 34%.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2016 Election Center |url=https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/vt/ |access-date=2022-06-19 |website=CNN |language=en}}</ref> Kasich did particularly well in the populous [[Burlington, Vermont metropolitan area|Burlington metro]], holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.

Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with [[2012 Republican Party presidential primaries|2012]], as some registered Republicans [[Split-ticket voting|crossed over]] to vote for [[favorite son]] [[Bernie Sanders]] in the [[2016 Vermont Democratic presidential primary|Democratic primary]].

==See also==
* [[2016 Vermont Democratic presidential primary]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}

{{2016 Republican Primaries}}

[[Category:2016 United States Republican presidential primaries by state|Vermont]]
[[Category:2016 in Vermont]]
[[Category:Vermont Republican primaries]]
[[Category:2016 Vermont elections|Republican presidential primary]]


{{Vermont-election-stub}}