View source for 2023 Bavarian state election

{{Short description|German state election}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2023 Bavarian state election
| country = Bavaria
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2018 Bavarian state election
| previous_year = 2018
| next_election = Next Bavarian state election
| next_year = ''Next'' 
| election_date = {{start date|2023|10|08|df=y}}
| seats_for_election = All 203 seats in the [[Landtag of Bavaria]] (including 23 overhang and leveling seats)
| majority_seats = 102
| registered =
| turnout = 6,902,684 (73.3%)<br>{{Increase}} 1.1%

<!-- CSU -->
| image1 = [[File:2022-02-21 Dr. Markus Soeder-1926 (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| leader1 = [[Markus Söder]]
| party1 = Christian Social Union in Bavaria
| last_election1 = 85 seats, 37.2%
| seats1 = 85
| seats_needed1 = {{Increase}}6
| seat_change1 = {{Steady}}
| popular_vote1 = 5,059,571
| percentage1 = 37.0%
| swing1 = {{Decrease}} 0.2%

<!-- FW -->
| image2 = [[File:Hart aber fair 2019-02-25-5560.jpg|x160px]]
| leader2 = [[Hubert Aiwanger]]
| party2 = Free Voters of Bavaria
| last_election2 = 27 seats, 11.6%
| seats2 = 37
| seats_needed2 = {{Increase}}64
| seat_change2 = {{Increase}} 10
| popular_vote2 = 2,163,849
| percentage2 = 15.8%
| swing2 = {{Increase}} 4.3%

<!-- AfD -->
| image3 = [[File:2018-12-11 Katrin Ebner-Steiner AfD 2385 (cropped 3).JPG|x83px]]<br>[[File:2019-10-10-Martin_Boehm_6258.jpg|x83px]]
| leader3 = [[Katrin Ebner-Steiner]]<br>Martin Böhm
| party3 = Alternative for Germany
| last_election3 = 22 seats, 10.2%
| seats3 = 32
| seats_needed3 = {{Increase}}69
| seat_change3 = {{Increase}} 10
| popular_vote3 = 2,000,435
| percentage3 = 14.6%
| swing3 = {{Increase}} 4.4%

<!-- Grüne -->
| image4 = [[File:Schulze Katharina Bildarchiv Bayerischer Landtag, Foto Eleana Hegerich.jpg|x77px]]<br>[[File:Ludwig Hartmann 2013.jpg|x83px]]
| leader4 = [[Katharina Schulze]]<br>[[Ludwig Hartmann]]
| party4 = Alliance 90/The Greens
| last_election4 = 38 seats, 17.6%
| seats4 = 32
| seats_needed4 = {{Increase}}53
| seat_change4 = {{Decrease}} 6
| popular_vote4 = 1,972,725
| percentage4 = 14.4%
| swing4 = {{Decrease}} 3.2%

<!-- SPD -->
| image5 = [[File:Florian von Brunn 5961a (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| leader5 = [[Florian von Brunn]]
| party5 = Social Democratic Party of Germany
| last_election5 = 22 seats, 9.7%
| seats5 = 17
| seats_needed5 = {{Increase}}69
| seat_change5 = {{Decrease}} 5
| popular_vote5 = 1,140,753
| percentage5 = 8.4%
| swing5 = {{Decrease}} 1.3%

<!-- FDP -->
| image6 = [[File:Martin Hagen (cropped).jpg|x160px]]
| leader6 = [[Martin Hagen (politician)|Martin Hagen]]
| party6 = Free Democratic Party (Germany)
| last_election6 = 11 seats, 5.1%
| seats6 = 0
| seats_needed6 = {{Increase}}81
| seat_change6 = {{Decrease}} 11
| popular_vote6 = 413,887
| percentage6 = 3.0%
| swing6 = {{Decrease}} 2.1%

<!-- Map -->
| map_image = Bavaria State Election 2023.svg
| map_size = 
| map_caption = Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats in the constituencies.
| title = Government
| before_election = [[Second Söder cabinet]]
| before_party = [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]]—[[Free Voters of Bavaria|FW]]
| posttitle = Government after election
| after_election = [[Third Söder cabinet]]
| after_party = [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]]—[[Free Voters of Bavaria|FW]]
}}
The '''2023 Bavarian state election''' was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the members of the 19th [[Landtag of Bavaria]]. The outgoing government was a coalition of the [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria]] (CSU) and the [[Free Voters of Bavaria]] (FW) led by [[List of ministers-president of Bavaria|Minister-President of Bavaria]] [[Markus Söder]]. The [[2023 Hessian state election]] was held the same day.

The CSU remained the largest party with only a slight decline to 37%. The Free Voters improved to second place with 16%, their best result to date. The opposition [[Alternative for Germany]] (AfD) was a close third on 15%. [[Alliance 90/The Greens|The Greens]] declined to 14%, followed by the [[Social Democratic Party of Germany|Social Democratic Party]] (SPD) on a historic low of 8%. The [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|Free Democratic Party]] (FDP) fell to 3% and lost their seats.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.dw.com/en/germany-scholz-coalition-battered-in-bavaria-hesse-elections/a-67037370|title=Germany: Scholz coalition battered in Bavaria, Hesse polls|date=9 October 2023|website=[[Deutsche Welle]]}}</ref>

Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority thanks to the Free Voters' gains. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the [[Scholz cabinet|federal government]], with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal [[Opinion polling for the next German federal election|opinion polling]].<ref>{{cite web|url=https://apnews.com/article/germany-state-elections-bavaria-hesse-136bad47e99f1e41ec1d36ef6a138c66|title=German conservative opposition wins 2 state elections, with far-right making gains|date=8 October 2023|website=[[Associated Press]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.dw.com/en/german-voters-move-further-to-the-right/a-67044416|title=German voters move further to the right|date=9 October 2023|website=[[Deutsche Welle]]}}</ref>

==Election organisation==

===Election date and preparation deadlines===
According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state election<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayVerf-16 Artikel 16 (1) Satz 3 Bayerische Verfassung]</ref> unless the Landtag is dissolved early, in this case the new election shall be held at the latest on the sixth Sunday after the dissolution. The preceding state election took place on 14 October 2018. This would allow an election date between 17 September and 10 December 2023. The elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.statistik.bayern.de/mam/produkte/veroffentlichungen/statistische_berichte/b7243c_201851.pdf|title=Election Results 1946-2018}}</ref> The Bavarian state government proposed 8 October 2023 as the election date on 15 November 2022<ref>[https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/bayern-landtagswahl-termin-oktober-soeder-1.5696196 Süddeutsche Zeitung: Bayern soll am 8. Oktober wählen]</ref> and officially set it on 13 December 2022 after hearing the parties to the state parliament.<ref>Petr Jerabek: [https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/termin-steht-bayerische-landtagswahl-am-8-oktober-2023,TPtcEKH Termin steht: Bayerische Landtagswahl am 8. Oktober 2023], BR24 am 13. Dezember 2022</ref> At the same day elections of the Bezirktags, two District Administrators and some Mayors take place.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.statistik.bayern.de/wahlen/termine/index.php |title=Statistisches Landesamt Bayern: Election dates|access-date=2023-05-30}}</ref>

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and possible changes of the electoral districts, was 14 July 2021 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag).<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-21 Artikel 21 (1) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-5 Artikel 5 (5) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> This was done on 12 October 2021.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.stmi.bayern.de/assets/stmi/suv/wahlen/stimmkreisbericht.pdf|title=Constituency Report}}</ref>

Delegates to the internal meetings of the parties can be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 May 2022. The actual district candidates are eligible at the earliest 46 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 August 2022.<ref>[https://www.statistik.bayern.de/presse/mitteilungen/2022/pm01/index.html Landtagswahl 2023: Fristen für die Aufstellung der Bewerber]</ref><ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-28 Artikel 28 (2) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> The parties and other organised electoral groups which have not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Landtag or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals ([[Christian Democratic Union of Germany|CDU]], [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]], [[Social Democratic Party of Germany|SPD]], [[Free Voters of Bavaria]], [[Alliance 90/The Greens]], [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|FDP]], [[The Left (Germany)|Die Linke]], [[Alternative for Germany|AfD]]) have to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-24 Artikel 24 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures have to be submitted by the 73rd day before the election.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-26 Artikel 26 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref>

===Electoral system===
The Landtag is elected using [[mixed-member proportional representation]]. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-36 Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the [[Webster/Sainte-Laguë method|Sainte-Laguë method]].<ref>[https://www.verkuendung-bayern.de/gvbl/2022-218/ Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9]</ref> There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (''Wahlkreise'') in the constitution.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayVerf-14 Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung]</ref> An [[Open list|open-list]] system is used for the regional seats. Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (''Stimmkreise''),<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-5 Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> in each of which one MP is directly elected.<ref>[http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-43 Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]</ref> The number of local "electoral districts" is about half of the seats in the regional "constituency".

==Campaign==

===Free Voters===
In August 2023, the ''[[Süddeutsche Zeitung]]'' reported on a pamphlet with [[antisemitic]] contents that [[Hubert Aiwanger]] may have authored and distributed at his high school some 35 years ago as a 17-year-old.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/aiwanger-antisemitismus-rechtsextremismus-vorwurf-flugblatt-1.6163002|title=Aiwanger soll als Schüler antisemitisches Flugblatt verfasst haben |access-date=2023-08-28 |date=2023-08-25|work=sueddeutsche.de|lang=de}}</ref> Aiwanger admitted to carrying copies in his [[satchel]] but denied writing the document. His older brother, a student at the same school at the time, later took responsibility for writing the antisemitic pamphlet itself.<ref>{{cite news |title=Bavarian premier summons Aiwanger over antisemitism scandal |url=https://www.dw.com/en/bavarian-premier-summons-aiwanger-over-antisemitism-scandal/a-66645854 |access-date=28 August 2023 |work=dw.com |date=28 August 2023 |ref=Yes |language=en}}</ref> The ''Süddeutsche Zeitung'' drew some criticism for publishing the story six weeks before the election, without conclusive evidence and without talking to Aiwanger before publication.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/sz-in-kritik-wegen-aiwanger-recherche-100.html |title=Kritik an der Berichterstattung der SZ |access-date=2023-08-28 |date=2023-08-25 |work=Deutschlandfunk |lang=de}}</ref> Bavarian premier [[Markus Söder]] demanded that Aiwanger answer 25 questions on the matter, including whether Aiwainger had actively distributed the antisemitic pamphlet. Aiwanger claimed multiple times to "not remember."<ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-09-03 |title=Flugblatt-Affäre: 25 Fragen: Das sind Aiwangers Antworten |url=https://www.zdf.de/uri/f7cbafcc-9643-461e-ab1d-1c0da593b2c9 |access-date=2023-09-06 |website=www.zdf.de |language=de}}</ref> Aiwanger's responses were heavily criticised as short and evasive.<ref>{{Cite web |last=tagesschau.de |title=Nordrhein-Westfalen: "Er ist kein Opfer, er ist Täter" – Deutliche Kritik an Aiwanger |url=https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/wdr-er-ist-kein-opfer-er-ist-taeter--deutliche-kritik-an-aiwanger-100.html |access-date=2023-09-06 |website=tagesschau.de |language=de}}</ref>

In his response to a question about other incidents, Aiwanger shortly mentioned that he remembers an unrelated incident in the arts class and noted a caution against breach of secrecy.<ref>{{cite web |title=25 Fragen von Söder: Das sind Aiwangers Antworten |url=https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/25-fragen-von-soeder-das-sind-aiwangers-antworten-im-wortlaut,TomxRMi |website=www.br.de |date=3 September 2023 |access-date=8 September 2023 |quote=Mir ist neben einem Vorfall im Kunstunterricht, der mit der aktuellen Diskussion nichts zu tun hat, nichts in Erinnerung (Anmerkung: Allgemein ist dafür Sorge zu tragen, dass der Schutzraum Schule nicht ausgehöhlt wird. ... |trans-quote=Apart from an incident in art class, which has nothing to do with the current discussion, nothing comes to my mind (Note: In general, care must be taken to ensure that the protective space of school is not undermined. ...}}</ref>

Despite the story, Aiwanger's party, [[Free Voters]], saw an increase in support in the polls.<ref>[https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-inglourious-bavarian-hubert-aiwanger/]</ref><ref>[https://www.thelocal.de/20230907/support-grows-for-bavarias-free-voters-party-after-anti-semitism-scandal]</ref><ref>[https://tvpworld.com/72543213/german-politician-surges-in-poll-after-antisemitism-controversy]</ref>

===AfD===
On 4 October 2023, [[Tino Chrupalla]] was at an election campaign appearance in [[Ingolstadt]]. Before his speech he collapsed and came to the intensive care unit of a local hospital. What exactly led to the hospitalisation is unclear.<ref>{{Cite web |title=AfD: Was über die Fälle Chrupalla und Weidel bekannt ist |url=https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/afd-chrupalla-weidel-106.html |access-date=2023-10-05 |website=tagesschau.de |language=de}}</ref>

==Parties==
The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.

{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan=2 colspan=3 | Name
! rowspan="2" | Leaders
! rowspan="2" | Ideology
! colspan=2 | 2018 result
! colspan=2 | 2023<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.bayern.landtag.de/abgeordnete/fraktionen/|title=Fraktionen im Landtag|access-date=2023-02-18}}</ref>
|-
! Votes (%)
! Seats
! Seats
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}" |
| align=center| '''CSU'''
| [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria]]<br>{{small|''Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern''}}
| [[Markus Söder]]
| [[Christian democracy]]
| align=center| 37.2%
| {{Composition bar|85|205|{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}}}
| {{Composition bar|82|205|{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}" |
| align=center| '''Grüne'''
| [[Alliance 90/The Greens]]<br>{{small|''Bündnis 90/Die Grünen''}}
| [[Thomas von Sarnowski]]<br>[[Eva Lettenbauer]]
| [[Green politics]]
| align=center| 17.6%
| {{Composition bar|38|205|{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}}}
| {{Composition bar|38|205|{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{Party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}" |
| align=center| '''FW'''
| [[Free Voters of Bavaria]]<br>{{small|''Freie Wähler Bayern''}}
| [[Hubert Aiwanger]]
| [[Conservatism]]
| align=center| 11.6%
| {{Composition bar|27|205|{{Party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}}}
| {{Composition bar|27|205|{{Party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Alternative for Germany}}" |
| align=center| '''AfD'''
| [[Alternative for Germany]]<br>{{small|''Alternative für Deutschland''}}
| [[Stephan Protschka]]
| [[German nationalism]]<br>[[Right-wing populism]]
| align=center| 10.2%
| {{Composition bar|22|205|{{party color|Alternative for Germany}}}}
| {{Composition bar|17|205|{{party color|Alternative for Germany}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}" |
| align=center| '''SPD'''
| [[Social Democratic Party of Germany]]<br>{{small|''Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands''}}
| [[Florian von Brunn]]<br>[[Ronja Endres]]
| [[Social democracy]]
| align=center| 9.7%
| {{Composition bar|22|205|{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}}}
| {{Composition bar|21|205|{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}" |
| align=center| '''FDP'''
| [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|Free Democratic Party]]<br>{{small|''Freie Demokratische Partei''}}
| [[Martin Hagen (politician)|Martin Hagen]]
| [[Classical liberalism]]
| align=center| 5.1%
| {{Composition bar|11|205|{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}}}
| {{Composition bar|12|205|{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}}}
|-
| bgcolor="{{party color|Independents}}" |
| colspan="2" align=center| '''Independents'''
| -
| -
| align=center| -
| {{Composition bar|0|205|{{party color|Independents}}}}
| {{Composition bar|8|205|{{party color|Independents}}}}
|}

==Opinion polls==

===Graphical summary===
[[File:2023 Bavaria state election polls.svg|thumb|880px|center|[[Local regression|LOESS]] graph]]

===Party polling===
{{row hover highlight}}
{| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
|- style="height:40px;"
! rowspan="2"| Polling firm<ref>{{Cite web |title=Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Bayern |url=https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm |access-date=2022-05-07 |website=Wahlrecht.de |language=de-DE}}</ref>
! rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date
! rowspan="2"| Sample size
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Alliance 90/The Greens|Grüne]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Free Voters of Bavaria|FW]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Alternative for Germany|AfD]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Social Democratic Party of Germany|SPD]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|FDP]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| [[The Left (Germany)|Linke]]
! rowspan="2"| Lead
|-
! style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}};" |
! style="background:{{party color|Free Voters}};" |
! style="background:{{party color|Alternative for Germany}};" |
! style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|The Left (Germany)}};"|
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm 2023 state election]
| {{opdrts||8|Oct|2023|year}}
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37.0'''
| 14.4
| 15.8
| 14.6
| 8.4
| 3.0
| 1.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21.2
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/10/06/trendupdate-zur-bayern-wahl-fuer-58-prozent-steht-wahlentscheidung-fest-16-prozent-unsichere/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|3|6|Oct|2023|year}}
| 985
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37.5'''
| 15.5
| 15
| 14
| 8
| 3
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|4|5|Oct|2023|year}}
| 1,209
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 16
| 15
| 14
| 9
| 3
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/10/04/trendupdate-zur-bayern-wahl-csu-unveraendert-freie-waehler-gruene-und-afd-auf-augenhoehe/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|30|3|Oct|2023|year}}
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 15
| 15
| 14
| 7.5
| 4
| 1.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|25|2|Oct|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 15
| 15
| 14
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bayern-wahl-csu-verteidigt-vorsprung-afd-gruene-und-freie-waehler-kaempfen-um-platz-zwei-a-87a78d6c-8721-4f8f-ab21-dc7569c214d7 Civey]
| {{opdrts|24|1|Oct|2023|year}}
| 2,121
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 15
| 15
| 14
| 9
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|25|28|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,222
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 16
| 15
| 14
| 9
| 4
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| {{opdrts|25|27|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,512
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 15
| 16
| 14
| 9
| 4
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/09/20/bayern-csu-faellt-auf-august-niveau-gruene-ueberholen-afd/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|20|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,021
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 15
| 17.5
| 13.5
| 8.5
| 3
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19.5
|-
| [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-bayern-csu-stabil-vorn-dreikampf-um-platz-zwei-zeichnet-sich-ab-a-40cdfdae-7a30-450b-a920-34c442d52232 Civey]
| {{opdrts|13|20|Sep|2023|year}}
| 5,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 14
| 14
| 13
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|13|18|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''36'''
| 14
| 17
| 14
| 9
| 3
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| {{opdrts|5|9|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,171
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 15
| 17
| 13
| 9
| 3
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|4|7|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,254
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 16
| 16
| 12
| 9
| 4
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/09/07/bayern-csu-nahezu-unveraendert-freie-waehler-ruecken-auf-2-spd-im-sinkflug/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|4|7|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''41'''
| 13.5
| 15.5
| 15
| 6.5
| 3.5
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|4|6|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''38'''
| 13
| 16
| 14
| 8
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bayern-wahl-csu-verliert-nach-flugblatt-affaere-prozente-freie-waehler-stabil-a-e41bbb0a-1253-4b4f-ab46-6beec48c0956 Civey]
| {{opdrts|30|6|Sep|2023|year}}
| 5,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 15
| 12
| 17
| 10
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|1|5|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 14
| 15
| 14
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/bayern-christsoziale-stark-im-aufwind-afd-und-freie-waehler-buessen-ein/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|31|4|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,400
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''42'''
| 12.5
| 11.5
| 15
| 10
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 27
|-
| [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bayern-landtagswahl-afd-und-gruenen-ringen-in-umfrage-um-platz-2-a-1e13bf70-af42-41eb-a90d-71345295e3e2 Civey]
| {{opdrts|9|23|Aug|2023|year}}
| 5,502
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 15
| 12
| 13
| 10
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/bayern-csu-gibt-ab-push-fuer-freie-waehler-afd-und-spd/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|19|Aug|2023|year}}
| 1,892
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 12.5
| 13.5
| 18
| 11
| 3
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-zur-bayern-wahl-csu-bei-39-prozent-jeder-zweite-unzufrieden-mit-markus-soeder-a-434e9182-efdb-4c37-b96c-cca01abed686 Civey]
| {{opdrts|26|9|Aug|2023|year}}
| 5,505
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''39'''
| 16
| 11
| 12
| 11
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|2|8|Aug|2023|year}}
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''39'''
| 14
| 12
| 14
| 9
| 4
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/bayern-csu-zurueck-bei-40-prozent-afd-und-spd-mit-minimalgewinnen/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|27|31|Jul|2023|year}}
| 1,042
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
| 13.5
| 10.5
| 16.5
| 10
| 3
| 0.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| {{opdrts|24|28|Jul|2023|year}}
| 1,012
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''39'''
| 14
| 14
| 13
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|17|24|Jul|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 15
| 11
| 14
| 11
| 5
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article246405238/Umfrage-zu-Bayern-Wahl-CSU-rutscht-auf-38-Prozent-ab.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|30|14|Jul|2023|year}}
| 5,500
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''38'''
| 17
| 12
| 11
| 12
| 3
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/07/04/bayern-minus-fuer-csu-freie-waehler-und-spd-afd-auf-platz-zwei Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|29|4|Jul|2023|year}}
| 1,300
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
| 14.5
| 10.5
| 16
| 9
| 4
| 1.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|28|3|Jul|2023|year}}
| 1,006
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''40'''
| 15
| 12
| 13
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/politik/bayern-monitor-umfrage-csu-verliert-an-boden-und-die-absolute-mehrheit-aus-den-augen-id66845116.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|2|6|Jun|2023|year}}
| 5,501
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
| 16
| 11
| 10
| 11
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|31|5|Jun|2023|year}}
| 1,001
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''41'''
| 14
| 11
| 12
| 10
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 27
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/05/24/bayern-erstmals-csu-verluste-seit-august-2022-gruene-afd-und-freie-waehler-auf-augenhoehe/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|21|24|May|2023|year}}
| 1,100
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''41'''
| 12.5
| 12
| 12
| 10
| 6
| 1.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 28.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|16|22|May|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''40'''
| 15
| 11
| 12
| 11
| 5
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| {{opdrts|9|13|May|2023|year}}
| 1,176
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''39'''
| 16
| 12
| 12
| 11
| 4
|–
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/bayern/bayern-monitor-umfrage-die-csu-rueckt-weiter-an-die-absolute-mehrheit-heran-id66440826.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|28|12|May|2023|year}}
| 5,503
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''43'''
| 17
| 10
| 9
| 10
| 3
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 26
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|26|2|May|2023|year}}
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''41'''
| 16
| 9
| 10
| 11
| 4
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| {{opdrts|20|28|Apr|2023|year}}
| 1,009
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''41'''
| 15
| 10
| 10
| 10
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 26
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-umfrage-csu-tastet-sich-an-absolute-mehrheit-heran-id66144026.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|31|14|May|2023|year}}
| 5,503
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''42'''
| 17
| 10
| 9
| 10
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/04/06/bayern-csu-spd-und-fdp-gewinnen-gruene-verlieren/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|31|6|Apr|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''44'''
| 14.5
| 12
| 9.5
| 7.5
| 5
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|27|3|Apr|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''40'''
| 18
| 9
| 11
| 10
| 5
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-umfrage-csu-und-freie-waehler-koennten-komfortabel-weiter-gemeinsam-regieren-id65851316.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|3|17|Mar|2023|year}}
| 5,502
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''41'''
| 18
| 10
| 9
| 10
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/02/19/bayern-csu-und-gruene-stabil-spd-verliert/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|19|Feb|2023|year}}
| 1,008
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''43'''
| 17.5
| 12
| 10
| 6
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2023-02-16"| 8–16 Feb 2023
| 1,022
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''42'''
|16
|10
|9
|10
|3
|–
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 26
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-umfrage-bayern-sind-wieder-deutlich-zufriedener-mit-soeder-id65534991.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|2|16|Feb|2023|year}}
| 5,503
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
| 18
| 12
| 10
| 9
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/01/17/bayern-csu-fehlen-vier-sitze-zur-absoluten-freie-waehler-im-aufwind-afd-buesst-ein/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2023-01-17"| 13–17 Jan 2023
| 1,040
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''43'''
|17.5
|13
|8
|8
|4
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25.5
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-csu-im-umfragehoch-wird-nun-sogar-die-absolute-mehrheit-wieder-moeglich-id65143561.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|29|12|Jan|2023|year}}
| 5,499
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''42'''
| 17
| 10
| 9
| 9
| 4
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2023-01-09"| 4–9 Jan 2023
| 1,190
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''38'''
|18
|10
|13
|9
|4
|–
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2023-01-09"| 2–9 Jan 2023
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
|19
|10
|10
|10
|5
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2023-01-03"| 28 Dec 2022–3 Jan 2023
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''41'''
|18
|10
|10
|9
|4
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/unfrage-vor-landtagswahl-2023-in-bayern-deutliche-mehrheit-fuer-csu-und-freie-waehler-id64899671.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|2|16|Dec|2022|year}}
| 5,502
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
| 16
| 12
| 11
| 9
| 3
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/12/05/bayern-csu-holt-weiter-auf-mehrheit-fuer-soeder-als-kanzlerkandidat/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-12-05"| 2–5 Dec 2022
| 1,944
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''43'''
|17.5
|11.5
|12
|7
|4
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 25.5
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-umfrage-csu-und-soeder-im-aufwind-id64597676.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|6|20|Nov|2022|year}}
| 5,501
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''41'''
| 17
| 10
| 10
| 10
| 3
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/11/04/bayern-csu-haelt-42-prozent-freie-waehler-und-afd-holen-auf/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-11-03"| 29 Oct–3 Nov 2022
| 1,040
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''42'''
|19
|11.5
|11
|6
|5.5
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-10-25"| 19–25 Oct 2022
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''39'''
|18
|10
|13
|9
|4
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2022-10-25"| 17–25 Oct 2022
| 1,083
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''41'''
|18
|11
|8
|10
|3
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 23
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2022-10-17"| 10–17 Oct 2022
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
|20
|9
|10
|10
|6
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-umfrage-csu-und-freie-waehler-koennten-in-bayern-weiterregieren-id64249496.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|30|14|Oct|2022|year}}
| 5,501
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
| 21
| 11
| 9
| 10
| 4
| 1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 18
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2022-10-11"| 7–11 Oct 2022
| 1,157
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''37'''
|18
|11
|12
|10
|3
|–
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-09-20"| 14–20 Sep 2022
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''40'''
|18
|10
|11
|8
|6
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-bayern-ziehen-markus-soeder-als-ministerpraesident-ilse-aigner-vor-id63972821.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|3|17|Sep|2022|year}}
| 5,511
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
| 19
| 9
| 9
| 10
| 4
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/09/13/bayern-csu-stabil-vorn-fdp-und-afd-legen-zu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-09-13"| 6–13 Sept 2022
| 1,371
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''42'''
|21
|8
|8
|6
|8
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-mehr-als-die-haelfte-der-bayern-ist-unzufrieden-mit-markus-soeder-id63609611.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|29|12|Aug|2022|year}}
| 5,501
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''37'''
| 20
| 10
| 9
| 10
| 5
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/08/04/bayern-csu-und-gruene-im-hoehenflug/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-08-03"| 1–3 Aug 2022
| 1,100
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''41'''
|22
|9.5
|6
|11
|5
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/umfrage-zur-landtagswahl-in-bayern-gruene-legen-kraeftig-zu-id63306026.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|1|15|Jul|2022|year}}
| 5,505
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''38'''
| 22
| 10
| 8
| 9
| 5
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 16
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/06/30/bayern-csu-bleibt-weit-voraus-gruene-und-freie-waehler-holen-auf/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-06-29"| 22–29 Jun 2022
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39.5'''
|18.5
|10
|7
|12
|6
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2022-06-27"| 20–27 Jun 2022
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''37'''
|20
|10
|9
|10
|7
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-06-20"| 15–20 Jun 2022
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''40'''
|20
|9
|8
|9
|5
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-spd-stuerzt-in-umfrage-ab-csu-und-gruene-legen-in-bayern-zu-id63002096.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|3|17|Jun|2022|year}}
| 5,501
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
| 19
| 9
| 8
| 11
| 6
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2022-06-03"| 23 May–3 Jun 2022
| 1,049
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''40'''
|20
|10
|7
|9
|6
|1
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-bayern-unzufrieden-mit-soeder-csu-verharrt-weiter-klar-unter-40-prozent-id62651686.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|29|13|May|2022|year}}
| 2,458
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''36'''
| 18
| 9
| 8
| 15
| 6
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 18
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2022-05-13"| 27 Apr–13 May 2022
| 1,235
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''39'''
|20
|11
|6
|10
|5
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/05/03/bayern-csu-mit-bestem-wert-seit-anderthalb-jahren-spd-und-gruene-unveraendert/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-05-03"| 27 Apr–3 May 2022
| 1,053
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
|15
|7
|7
|16
|7
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-04-25"| 20–25 Apr 2022
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''38'''
|16
|8
|9
|13
|7
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/bayern-monitor-die-haelfte-der-menschen-in-bayern-ist-unzufrieden-mit-markus-soeder-id62380531.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|1|15|Apr|2022|year}}
| 3,009
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''35'''
| 18
| 10
| 6
| 15
| 8
| 2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-02-28"| 23–28 Feb 2022
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''37'''
|15
|8
|9
|13
|8
|4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/02/23/bayern-csu-legt-zu-spd-knapp-vor-gruene/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2022-02-23"| 18–23 Feb 2022
| 1,700
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''36.5'''
|15
|8
|9
|16
|7
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2022-01-17"| 13–17 Jan 2022
| 1,171
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''36'''
|16
|8
|10
|14
|7
|–
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2022-01-03"| 29 Dec 2021–3 Jan 2022
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}}|'''35'''
|15
|8
|10
|14
|9
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/12/15/bayern-csu-mit-weitem-abstand-vorn-gruene-und-spd-gleichauf/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-12-14"| 8–14 Dec 2021
| 1,430
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''33.5'''
|16.5
|11
|8
|16.5
|8
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-10-11"| 4–11 Oct 2021
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''32'''
|15
|8
|8
|20
|11
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 12
|- style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
| [[2021 German federal election|2021 federal election]]
| data-sort-value="2021-09-26"| 26 Sep 2021
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''31.7'''
|14.1
|7.5
|9.0
|18.0
|10.5
|2.8
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 13.7
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2021-07-27"| 21–27 Jul 2021
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''39'''
|20
|9
|8
|9
|7
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-07-19"| 12–19 Jul 2021
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''37'''
|22
|10
|8
|10
|8
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 16
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2021-05-17"| 10–17 May 2021
| 1,016
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''38'''
|22
|9
|9
|7
|6
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 16
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-04-27"| 22–27 Apr 2021
| 1,400
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''36'''
|24
|9
|9
|9
|7
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 12
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2021-03-29"| 24–29 Mar 2021
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''40'''
|20
|9
|9
|8
|6
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/03/18/bayern-csu-gibt-maechtig-punkte-ab-gruene-freie-waehler-und-spd-profitieren/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-03-18"| 13–18 Mar 2021
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''37'''
|20
|12
|7.5
|10
|6
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2021-02-15"| 10–15 Feb 2021
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''47'''
|18
|8
|8
|8
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-01-26"| 21–26 Jan 2021
| 1,016
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|18
|8
|7
|9
|5
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 28
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2021-01-11"| 7–11 Jan 2021
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''48'''
|19
|8
|7
|7
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2021-01-04"| 29 Dec 2020–4 Jan 2021
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''48'''
|18
|7
|8
|8
|4
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 30
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/11/14/bayern-bayern-csu-profitiert-von-spd-waehlern-im-bund-afd-und-freie-waehler-teilen-sich-platz-3/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-11-13"| 6–13 Nov 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''47'''
|18
|8
|8
|6
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-11-09"| 4–9 Nov 2020
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|18
|6
|8
|8
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 28
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-10-12"| 7–12 Oct 2020
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|19
|7
|8
|8
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 27
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-10-05"| 30 Sep–5 Oct 2020
| 1,001
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''45'''
|21
|7
|8
|8
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/08/31/bayern-csu-gewinnt-absolute-mehrheit-zurueck-deutliche-verluste-fuer-gruene-und-spd/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-08-31"| 27–31 Aug 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|18
|10
|8
|6.5
|4
|3.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 28
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-08-20"| 17–20 Aug 2020
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''47'''
|18
|6
|7
|9
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/08/15/bayern-csu-verliert-erstmals-absolute-mehrheit-seit-maerz-gruene-preschen-nach-oben/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-08-14"| 11–14 Aug 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''43'''
|21
|9
|7.5
|9.5
|4
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2020-08-10"| 5–10 Aug 2020
| 1,001
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''47'''
|18
|7
|7
|10
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-07-27"| 22–27 Jul 2020
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''49'''
|19
|5
|7
|7
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 30
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-07-22"| 15–22 Jul 2020
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''49'''
|20
|5
|7
|7
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/06/16/bayern-prognose-csu-haelt-50-prozent-gruene-mit-gewinnen-fdp-knapp-im-landtag/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-06-16"| 11–16 Jun 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''50'''
|16
|9
|5
|8
|5
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 34
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-06-16"| 9–16 Jun 2020
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''48'''
|16
|8
|6
|9
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 32
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-05-25"| 20–25 May 2020
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''48'''
|19
|8
|5
|9
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2020-05-25"| 19–25 May 2020
| 1,014
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|17
|8
|7
|10
|4
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| data-sort-value="2020-05-04"| 28 Apr–4 May 2020
| 1,006
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''47'''
|15
|9
|7
|10
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 32
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/04/24/bayern-absolute-mehrheit-fuer-csu-haelt-an-gruene-brechen-ein/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-04-23"| 20–23 Apr 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''50'''
|13.5
|8
|6.5
|11
|4
|2.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 36.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/04/08/rekordwerte-in-bayern-csu-kratzt-an-der-50-prozent-marke/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-04-08"| 4–8 Apr 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''49'''
|21
|6.5
|5.5
|8.5
|3
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 28
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-04-06"| 2–6 Apr 2020
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''49'''
|17
|8
|6
|10
|–
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 32
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/Exklusiv-Umfrage-Corona-Effekt-CSU-rueckt-in-Umfrage-in-die-Naehe-der-absoluten-Mehrheit-id57188801.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|15|5|Apr|2020|year}}
| 4,535
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''44.1'''
| 19.6
| 8.1
| 8.6
| 9.3
| 3.1
| 3.2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 24.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/03/21/bayern-csu-erreicht-absolute-mehrheit/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2020-03-20"| 16–20 Mar 2020
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''46'''
|23.5
|7.5
|6
|7.5
|3
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 22.5
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2020/03/05/bayern-csu-knackt-40-prozent-marke-gruene-im-aufwind-afd-sackt-ab/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts||5|Mar|2020|year}}
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''40.5'''
| 26
| 9
| 6.5
| 8
| 3
| 3.5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 14
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|17|24|Feb|2020|year}}
| 1,006
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 20
| 11
| 11
| 9
| 3
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 18
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| {{opdrts|8|13|Jan|2020|year}}
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 25
| 10
| 10
| 7
| 4
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 11
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|27|2|Jan|2020|year}}
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 20
| 10
| 10
| 8
| 6
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 18
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|1|7|Oct|2019|year}}
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 22
| 11
| 10
| 8
| 5
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 15
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm INSA]
| {{opdrts|16|23|Sep|2019|year}}
| 1,034
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''36'''
| 22
| 10
| 11
| 9
| 5
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 14
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|17|22|Jul|2019|year}}
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 22
| 11
| 9
| 7
| 5
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 15
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|18|24|Jun|2019|year}}
| 1,005
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37'''
| 23
| 9
| 9
| 8
| 5
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 14
|- style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
| [[2019 European Parliament election in Germany|2019 EP election]]
| {{opdrts||26|May|2019|year}}
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''40.7'''
| 19.1
| 5.3
| 8.5
| 9.3
| 3.4
| 2.4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 21.6
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/Bayern-Monitor-Manfred-Weber-verschafft-der-CSU-keinen-Aufschwung-id54153406.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|29|26|Apr|2019|year}}
| 5,016
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''36.4'''
| 20.8
| 9.7
| 8.3
| 10.3
| 5.8
| 3.3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 15.6
|-
| [https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/special/bayern-monitor/Bayern-Monitor-Gruene-sind-in-Bayern-so-beliebt-wie-nie-zuvor-id53914466.html Civey]
| {{opdrts|1|29|Mar|2019|year}}
| 4,515
| {{Party shading/CSU}} |'''38.1'''
| 20.3
| 10.1
| 8.3
| 9.5
| 5.4
| 3.2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17.8
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Forsa]
| {{opdrts|22|25|Jan|2019|year}}
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 23
| 12
| 8
| 6
| 5
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 15
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm Infratest dimap]
| {{opdrts|3|7|Jan|2019|year}}
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''35'''
| 21
| 13
| 8
| 9
| 6
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 14
|-
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm GMS]
| {{opdrts|27|2|Jan|2019|year}}
| 1,003
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''38'''
| 18
| 11
| 10
| 9
| 5
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm 2018 state election]
| {{opdrts||14|Oct|2018|year}}
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}} | '''37.2'''
| 17.6
| 11.6
| 10.2
| 9.7
| 5.1
| 3.2
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19.6
|}

===Minister-President polling===
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
|- style="height:40px;"
! style="width:155px;" rowspan="3"| Polling firm
! style="width:120px;" rowspan="3"| Fieldwork date
! style="width:35px;" rowspan="3"| Sample<br>size
! class="unsortable" style="width:70px;"| [[File:2022-02-21 Dr. Markus Soeder-1926 (cropped).jpg|100x100px]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:70px;"| [[File:Ludwig Hartmann 2013.jpg|100x100px]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:70px;"| [[File:Hart aber fair 2019-02-25-5560.jpg|100x100px]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:70px;"| [[File:2019-10-10-Martin_Boehm_6258.jpg|120x100px]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:70px;"| [[File:Florian_von_Brunn_5961a.jpg|100x100px]]
! style="width:30px;" rowspan="3"| Lead
|-
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| {{nowrap|[[Markus Söder|Söder]]}}<hr>[[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| {{nowrap|[[Ludwig Hartmann|Hartmann]]}}<hr>[[Alliance 90/The Greens|Grüne]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| {{nowrap|[[Hubert Aiwanger|Aiwanger]]}}<hr>[[Free Voters of Bavaria|Free Voters]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| {{nowrap|Böhm}}<hr>[[Alternative for Germany|AfD]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| {{nowrap|[[Florian von Brunn|von Brunn]]}}<hr>[[SPD Bavaria|SPD]] 
|-
! style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Alternative for Germany}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};"|
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/thema/landtagswahl-bayern-186.html?slide=UA56 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts||8|Oct|2023|year}}
| –
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''57'''
| 14
| –
| –
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 43
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/10/06/trendupdate-zur-bayern-wahl-fuer-58-prozent-steht-wahlentscheidung-fest-16-prozent-unsichere/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|3|6|Oct|2023|year}}
| 985
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''44'''
| 13
| 13
| 10
| 5
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 31
|-
| [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-extra-bayern-hessen-wahl-100.html?slide=1689253932035 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|4|5|Oct|2023|year}}
| 1,209
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''54'''
| 20
| –
| –
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 34
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/10/04/trendupdate-zur-bayern-wahl-csu-unveraendert-freie-waehler-gruene-und-afd-auf-augenhoehe/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|30|3|Oct|2023|year}}
| 1,002
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''41'''
| 14
| 12
| 9
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 27
|-
| [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-extra-bayern-hessen-100.html?slide=1689253932035 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|25|28|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,222
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''54'''
| 19
| –
| –
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 35
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/09/20/bayern-csu-faellt-auf-august-niveau-gruene-ueberholen-afd/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|20|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,021
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''50'''
| 11
| 14
| 9
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 36
|-
| [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-extra-landtagswahlen-bayern-hessen-102.html Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
| {{opdrts|4|7|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,254
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''54'''
| 19
| –
| –
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 35
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/09/07/bayern-csu-nahezu-unveraendert-freie-waehler-ruecken-auf-2-spd-im-sinkflug/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|4|7|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,004
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''52'''
| 10
| 15
| 9
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 37
|-
| [https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/es-geht-um-den-job-in-dieser-frage-deklassiert-soeder-aiwanger--85313476.bild.html INSA]
| {{opdrts|1|5|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,000
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''45'''
| 7
| 13
| –
| –
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 32
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/bayern-christsoziale-stark-im-aufwind-afd-und-freie-waehler-buessen-ein/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|31|4|Sep|2023|year}}
| 1,400
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''48'''
| 7
| 8
| 9
| 8
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 39
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/bayern-csu-gibt-ab-push-fuer-freie-waehler-afd-und-spd/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|19|Aug|2023|year}}
| 1,892
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''43'''
| 9
| 14
| 9
| 7
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 29
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/02/19/bayern-csu-und-gruene-stabil-spd-verliert/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|14|19|Feb|2023|year}}
| 1,008
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''55'''
| 10
| 13
| –
| 10
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 42
|-
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2023/01/17/bayern-csu-fehlen-vier-sitze-zur-absoluten-freie-waehler-im-aufwind-afd-buesst-ein/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| {{opdrts|13|17|Jan|2023|year}}
| 1,040
| {{Party shading/CSU}}| '''53'''
| 15
| 12
| –
| 9
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 38
|-
|}

==Election result==
[[File:Bayern Landtagswahl 2023 Erststimmen.svg|thumb|Winners of constituency seats{{Legend|#010202ff|[[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|CSU]]}}{{Legend|#ef8633ff|[[Free Voters of Bavaria|FWB]]}}{{Legend|#479635ff|[[Alliance 90/The Greens|GRÜNE]]}}]]

{{Election table
| title=Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the [[Landtag of Bavaria]]<ref>{{
Cite web
| access-date=2023-11-06
| date=2023-10-24
| language=de
| title=Ergebnisse in der Grafikansicht für Gesamtbayern
| url=https://www.landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/index.html
| website=Landtagswahl
}}</ref>
}}
| colspan="12" | [[File:Bavarian Landtag 2023.svg|center|300px]]
|-
! rowspan=2 colspan=2| Party
! colspan=3| Constituency{{
Efn
| 1={{Lang|de|Erststimmen, local "Stimmkreis" votes}}
| group=Election result
}}
! colspan=2| Party list{{
Efn
| 1={{Lang|de|Zweitstimmen, regional "Wahlkreis" votes}}
| group=Election result
}}
! colspan=3| Total vote
! rowspan=2| Total<br/>seats
! rowspan=2| +/-
|-
! Votes
! %
! Seats
! Votes
! %
! Votes
! %
! +/-
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}| 
| align=left| [[Christian Social Union in Bavaria|Christian Social Union]] (CSU)
| 2,527,810
| 37.0
| 85
| 2,531,761
| 37.1
| 5,059,571
| 37.0
| {{Decrease}} 0.2
| 85
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}| 
| align=left| [[Free Voters of Bavaria]] (FW)
| 1,078,037
| 15.8
| 2
| 1,085,812
| 15.9
| 2,163,849
| 15.8
| {{Increase}} 4.3
| 37
| {{Increase}} 10
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Alternative for Germany}}| 
| align=left| [[Alternative for Germany]] (AfD)
| 1,008,195
| 14.7
| 0
| 992,240
| 14.5
| 2,000,435
| 14.6
| {{Increase}} 4.4
| 32
| {{Increase}} 10
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}| 
| align=left| [[Alliance 90/The Greens]] (GRÜNE)
| 983,631
| 14.4
| 4
| 989,094
| 14.5
| 1,972,725
| 14.4
| {{Decrease}} 3.2
| 32
| {{Decrease}} 6
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}| 
| align=left| [[Social Democratic Party of Germany]] (SPD)
| 587,964
| 8.6
| 0
| 552,789
| 8.1
| 1,140,753
| 8.4
| {{Decrease}} 1.3
| 17
| {{Decrease}} 5
|-
! colspan="12" |
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}| 
| align=left| [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|Free Democratic Party]] (FDP)
| 205,677
| 3.0
| 0
| 208,210
| 3.1
| 413,887
| 3.0
| {{Decrease}} 2.1
| 0
| {{Decrease}} 11
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Ecological Democratic Party}}| 
| align=left| [[Ecological Democratic Party]] (ÖDP)
| 127,419
| 1.9
| 0
| 117,805
| 1.7
| 245,224
| 1.8
| {{Increase}} 0.2
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|The Left (Germany)}}| 
| align=left| [[The Left (Germany)|The Left]] (DIE LINKE)
| 101,357
| 1.5
| 0
| 99,521
| 1.5
| 200,878
| 1.5
| {{Decrease}} 1.8
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Bavaria Party}}| 
| align=left| [[Bavaria Party]] (BP)
| 72,325
| 1.1
| 0
| 57,155
| 0.8
| 129,480
| 0.9
| {{Decrease}} 0.8
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany}}| 
| align=left| [[Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany|Grassroots Democratic Party]] (dieBasis)
| 55,600
| 0.8
| 0
| 63,889
| 0.9
| 119,489
| 0.9
| New
| 0
| New
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Human Environment Animal Protection Party}}| 
| align=left| [[Human Environment Animal Protection Party]] (Tierschutz)
| 25,811
| 0.4
| 0
| 43,981
| 0.6
| 69,792
| 0.5
| {{Increase}} 0.2
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Die PARTEI}}| 
| align=left| [[Die PARTEI]]
| 32,378
| 0.5
| 0
| 31,776
| 0.5
| 64,154
| 0.5
| {{Steady}} 0.0
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Volt Germany}}| 
| align=left| [[Volt Germany]] (Volt)
| 15,785
| 0.2
| 0
| 25,909
| 0.4
| 41,694
| 0.3
| New
| 0
| New
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|V-Partei3}}| 
| align=left| [[V-Partei3|V-Partei³]]
| 11,061
| 0.2
| 0
| 11,764
| 0.2
| 22,825
| 0.2
| {{Decrease}} 0.1
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
| bgcolor={{party color|Party of Humanists}}| 
| align=left| [[Party of Humanists]] (PdH)
| 3,609
| 0.1
| 0
| 10,417
| 0.2
| 14,026
| 0.1
| {{Increase}} 0.1
| 0
| {{Steady}} 0
|-
! colspan=2| Total
! 6,836,659
! 100.00
! 91
! 6,822,123
! 100.00
! 13,658,782
! 100.00
! 
! 203
! {{Decrease}} 2
|-
| colspan=2 align=center| Invalid
| 58,425
| 0.8
| 
| 72,715
| 1.1
| 131,140
| 1.0
| colspan=3| 
|-
! colspan=2| Turnout
! colspan=5| 
! 6,895,807
! 73.1
! {{Increase}} 0.8
! colspan=2| 
|-
| colspan=2 align=center| Registered voters
| colspan=5| 
| 9,430,600
| colspan=4| 
|}

{{Noteslist|Election result}}

{{Bar box
| bars=
{{Bar percent|CSU|{{Party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}|37.04}}
{{Bar percent|FW|{{Party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}|15.84}}
{{Bar percent|AFD|{{Party color|Alternative for Germany}}|14.65}}
{{Bar percent|Grünen|{{Party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}|14.44}}
{{Bar percent|SPD|{{Party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}|8.35}}
{{Bar percent|FDP|{{Party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}|3.03}}
{{Bar percent|ÖDP|{{Party color|Ecological Democratic Party}}|1.80}}
{{Bar percent|LINKE|{{Party color|The Left (Germany)}}|1.47}}
{{Bar percent|BP|{{Party color|Bavaria Party}}|0.95}}
{{Bar percent|Others|{{Party color|Other}}|2.43}}
| barwidth=410px
| title=Popular vote
| titlebar=#dddddd
| width=600px
}}

{{Bar box
| bars=
{{Bar percent|CSU|{{Party color|Christian Social Union in Bavaria}}|41.87}}
{{Bar percent|FW|{{Party color|Free Voters of Bavaria}}|18.23}}
{{Bar percent|AFD|{{Party color|Alternative for Germany}}|15.76}}
{{Bar percent|Grünen|{{Party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}|15.76}}
{{Bar percent|SPD|{{Party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}|8.37}}
| barwidth=410px
| title=Seats
| titlebar=#dddddd
| width=600px
}}

== Aftermath and state government formation==
{{Expand section|date=October 2023}}
After the election, the state government was again formed as a coalition between CSU and FW. Markus Söder was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 31 October, with 120 votes for, 76 votes against, and two abstentions.<ref>{{
Cite web
| access-date=2023-10-31
| date=2023-10-31
| first=Petr
| first2=Jonas
| language=de
| last=Jerabek
| last2=Wengert
| title=Landtag wählt Söder erneut zum bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten
| url=https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/holetschek-wirbt-fuer-soeders-wiederwahl-zum-ministerpraesidenten,TuFNnkG
| website=BR24
}}</ref> He formed the [[Third Söder cabinet]].

AfD politician [[Daniel Halemba]] was elected to the [[Landtag of Bavaria|Bavarian State Parliament]] in the 2023 Bavarian state election.<ref>{{cite news |title=Far-right German politician arrested after ‘Sieg Heil’ salutes heard |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/far-right-german-politician-arrested-after-sieg-heil-salutes-heard |access-date=1 November 2023 |work=[[The Guardian]] |agency=[[Reuters]] |date=30 October 2023}}</ref> On 27 October, three days before the constituent session, an arrest warrant was issued against him. Halemba was arrested on the morning of 30 October 2023 in [[Kirchheim unter Teck]] on suspicion of incitement to hatred and the use of signs of anti-constitutional organizations.<ref>{{Cite web |date=30 October 2023 |title=AfD-Abgeordneter Halemba verhaftet: Verdacht der Volksverhetzung |url=https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/gesuchter-afd-abgeordneter-halemba-verhaftet,Tu9Yiwk |access-date=30 October 2023 |website=BR24 |language=de}}</ref>

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
* {{Commons category-inline}}

{{2023 elections in Germany}}
{{Bavaria state elections}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Bavarian state election, 2023}}
[[Category:2023 elections in Germany]]
[[Category:October 2023 events in Germany]]
[[Category:Elections in Bavaria|2023]]