Seneca effect
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The Seneca effect, or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse, is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi that addresses a class of problems in nature in which decline is faster than growth.
Context and description
This model is closely related to the work The Limits to Growth issued by the Club of Rome in the Seventies[1] and its main application is to describe various kind of economics given the condition of a shortage of fossil fuels, e.g. in relation to the Hubbert curve. However, unlike the Hubbert curve, the Seneca cliff shows asymmetry, which can take into account the delay of effects, such as pollution.[2]
The term is named after the Roman philosopher and writer Seneca, who wrote Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid (Lucius Anneus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, 91–63).
See also
References
- ^ Turner, Graham. Is Global Collapse Imminent?. University of Melbourne, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, 2014.
- ^ Heinrich, Torsten. "Resource Depletion, Growth, Collapse, and the Measurement of Capital." (2014).
Bibliography
- Bardi, Ugo (2017). The Seneca Effect: Why Growth is Slow But Collapse is Rapid. Springer.
- Bardi, Ugo (2014). Extracted: How the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet. Chelsea Green Publishing.
- Bardi, Ugo (2005). The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves. Energy Policy 33.1. pp. 53–61.
- Orlov, Dmitry (2013). The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors' Toolkit. New Society Publishers.
- Jackson, Tim and Robin Webster. "Limits to Growth revisited." Reframing Global Social Policy: Social Investment for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth (2017): 295.
- Novak, Peter. "Sustainable energy system with zero emissions of GHG for cities and countries." Energy and Buildings 98 (2015): 27-33.
- Illig, Aude, and Ian Schindler. "Oil Extraction, Economic Growth, and Oil Price Dynamics." BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality 2.1 (2017): 1.
External links
- Ugo Bardi (28 August 2011). "Cassandra Legacy Blog, The Seneca effect: why decline is faster than growth".
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