User:Superb Owl/sandbox
Neighbors survey as more reliable...[1]
Deprecating pollsters RFC
[edit]538[2] (owned by ABC )
|
NYT[3]
|
Cook Political Report[4] | 270toWin | Decision Desk HQ/TheHill | Split Ticket | Silver Bulletin | WaPo[5] | Economist | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiers | 0-3 star ranking (2-3~=?) based
on historical accuracy, transparency |
Preferred tier ~=
|
|||||||
| Rasmussen |  [6]
|
|
|
Excludes | Includes | [7]
|
Includes | ||
| ActiVote |
|
|
|
Excludes | Includes | [7]
|
Excludes | ||
| Trafalgar | (0.7/3)
|
|
|
Includes | Includes | [7]
|
Includes | ||
| AtlasIntel | 2.7/3 |
Option A: Do not list individual polls, only aggregators
[edit]Delete all individual polls and only use aggregators. Wikipedia does not have bandwidth to analyze individual polls for reliability and explain how to weight/consider them to readers, therefore they represent excessive detail and WP:RECENTISM. Polling averages from WP:RS only should be included.
Option B: List polls and come up with a way to decide which polls merit listing
[edit]Option 1:
[edit]Only include individual polls that are generally seen by WP:RS to be reliable.
Option 2:
[edit]Only include individual polls where there is no consensus on WP:RS regarding their reliability (and excluding those that are, for example, excluded by a clear majority of WP:RS as unreliable). 538 ranks 259 pollsters as having a 1-star rating or better, for example.
Option 3:
[edit]Continue to include polls without much systematic consideration of reliability, relying on the perceptions of individual editors on each article.
References
[edit]- ^ Osipovich, Alexander (November 6, 2024). "How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election". The Wall Street Journal.
- ^ "Pollster Ratings". FiveThirtyEight. September 12, 2024. Retrieved 2024-10-28.
- ^ Cohn, Nate (September 3, 2024). "Methodology: How The Times Calculates 2024 Polling Averages". New York Times.
- ^ Wasserman, David (August 29, 2024). "Relaunched: CPR Harris vs. Trump 2024 National Polling Average". Cook Political Report.
- ^ https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=lk_inline_manual_3
- ^ Bump, Phillip (March 8, 2024). "538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis". Washington Post.
- ^ a b c Sargent, Greg; Tomasky, Michael (October 23, 2024). ""Red Wave" Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump's Favor?". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved 2024-10-28.