January–March 2014 North American cold wave: Difference between revisions

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====Climate change====
====Climate change====
{{ref improve|date=January 2014}}
{{ref improve|date=January 2014}}
Studies on the connection between extreme weather and the polar vortex published between 2001 and 2012, suggest a link between climate change and increasingly extreme temperatures experienced by mid latitudes, e.g. central North America. <ref name="Baldwin 2001">{{cite journal |doi=10.1126/science.1063315 |title=Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |year=2001 |last1=Baldwin |first1=M. P. |journal=Science |volume=294 |issue=5542 |pages=581-4 |pmid=11641495 |last2=Dunkerton |first2=TJ}}</ref><ref name="Song 2004">{{cite journal |doi=10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1711:DMFSIO>2.0.CO;2 |year=2004 |volume=61 |pages=1711-25 |title=Dynamical Mechanisms for Stratospheric Influences on the Troposphere |last1=Song |first1=Yucheng |last2=Robinson |first2=Walter A. |journal=Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences |issue=14}}</ref><ref name="Overland 2013">{{cite journal |doi=10.1038/nclimate2079 |title=Atmospheric science: Long-range linkage |year=2013 |last1=Overland |first1=James E. |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=4 |pages=11-2}}</ref><ref name="Tang 2013">{{cite journal |doi=10.1038/nclimate2065 |title=Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere |year=2013 |last1=Tang |first1=Qiuhong |last2=Zhang |first2=Xuejun |last3=Francis |first3=Jennifer A. |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=4 |pages=45-50}}</ref><ref name="Screen 2013">{{cite journal |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015 |title=Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation |year=2013 |last1=Screen |first1=J A |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=8 |issue=4 |pages=044015}}</ref><ref name="Francis 2012">{{cite journal |doi=10.1029/2012GL051000 |title=Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes |year=2012 |last1=Francis |first1=Jennifer A. |last2=Vavrus |first2=Stephen J. |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=39 |issue=6 |bibcode=2012GeoRL..39.6801F |pages=n/a}}</ref><ref name="Petoukhov 2010">{{cite journal |doi=10.1029/2009JD013568 |title=A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |year=2010 |last1=Petoukhov |first1=Vladimir |last2=Semenov |first2=Vladimir A. |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research |volume=115 |bibcode=2010JGRD..11521111P}}</ref><ref name="Masato 2013">{{cite journal |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1 |title=Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models |year=2013 |last1=Masato |first1=Giacomo |last2=Hoskins |first2=Brian J. |last3=Woollings |first3=Tim |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=26 |issue=18 |pages=7044-59}}</ref>. This phenomenon can be understood to result from the rapid melting of polar sea ice, which replaces white, reflective ice with dark, absorbent open water (i.e. the albedo of this region has decreased). As a result, the region has heated up faster than other parts of the globe. With the lack of a sufficient temperature difference between Arctic and southern regions to drive [[jet stream]] winds, the jet stream may have become weaker and more variable in its course, allowing for weather conditions such as a "polar vortex".<ref name=Time>{{Citation
Counter-intuitively, the extreme cold weather in much of the USA has been theorized by some to be the result of [[global warming]]. This theory is opposite of previous global warming predictions made by the Intergovernmental Agency on Climate Change. Some theorize that because much of the Summer ice of the Arctic has given way to dark open waters (''i.e.'' the [[albedo]] of this region has decreased) the region has heated up faster than other parts of the globe. With the lack of a sufficient temperature difference between Arctic and southern regions to drive [[jet stream]] winds, the jet stream may have become weaker and more variable in its course, allowing for weather conditions such as a "polar vortex".<ref name=Time>{{Citation
| first = Bryan
| first = Bryan
| last = Walsh
| last = Walsh

Revision as of 20:35, 7 January 2014

2014 North American polar vortex
The jet stream for January 6, 2014 (pale blue in map to right) follows a wavy pattern over the whole Northern hemisphere, and the path of the jet stream is out of the north over the central U.S., bringing cold air southward from the Arctic and producing record cold temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S.
TypeCold wave, ice storm, and snowfall
FormedJanuary 4, 2014
DissipatedActive
Lowest pressure974 mbar (28.8 inHg)
Fatalities16[1]
Areas affected Canada
 United States

The 2014 North American cold front—or popularly, polar vortex—is an ongoing extreme weather event affecting parts of Canada and the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, extending as far south as North Florida.[2] An Arctic cold front, initially combined with a nor'easter on January 2, the polar vortex left heavy snowfall and broke coldest temperature records throughout the United States, leading to company, school, and road closures and mass flight cancellations.[1][3][4][5]

The term "polar vortex", when used for the effects of a large cold front like this, is misleading and a misnomer. The polar vortices are circulations that exist over both poles at all times.

Meteorology and possible causes

Climate change

Studies on the connection between extreme weather and the polar vortex published between 2001 and 2012, suggest a link between climate change and increasingly extreme temperatures experienced by mid latitudes, e.g. central North America. [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. This phenomenon can be understood to result from the rapid melting of polar sea ice, which replaces white, reflective ice with dark, absorbent open water (i.e. the albedo of this region has decreased). As a result, the region has heated up faster than other parts of the globe. With the lack of a sufficient temperature difference between Arctic and southern regions to drive jet stream winds, the jet stream may have become weaker and more variable in its course, allowing for weather conditions such as a "polar vortex".[14][15] Another factor is the loss of snow cover in Siberia.[citation needed] This creates a similar loss-of-albedo effect over Siberia, which may be contributing to unusually large bends in the jet stream. Those bends gradually migrate along the jet stream until they reach North America and then Europe.

This jet stream instability brings warm air north as well as cold air south. The patch of unusual cold over the eastern United States was matched by anomalies of mild winter temperatures across Greenland and much of the Arctic north of Canada.[16] The same jet stream instability which is bringing bitterly cold temperatures to central and eastern North America is bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to much of Europe.[citation needed] In addition, in a serious week-long heat wave in Australia, temperatures climbed as high as 54 °C (129 °F).[17] Even in the areas affected by the deep freeze, most forecasts call for temperatures to moderate or go well above average by January 10, 2014, so that most regions experienced bitter cold for three days.

The southward spread of air from the polar vortex may also be the result of a stratospheric warming event over eastern Canada (Rossby waves) that blocked the winds of the polar vortex from their normal path, driving them southward.[14] Although it appears that it's not just wind from the polar vortex, as would be expected, but the whole system has been dislodged from it's natural place.[16]

Strong jet stream

Instead of a weakened polar vortex, the cold temperatures could be caused by a strong contrast of cold and initially mild winter temperatures between Canada and the U.S., driving a strong jet stream. Winds from the jet stream are causing bitter wind chills, worsening the perception of cold.[18]

Record cold temperatures

Locations throughout the region experienced record cold temperatures.[19] Babbitt, Minnesota, was the coldest place in the United States on January 6 at −37 °F (−38 °C).

Map showing snow coverage as of January 6, 2014.

United States

Temperatures in the Midwestern United States were colder than the North Pole, which had a low of −20 °F (−29 °C), and the South Pole, which had a morning low of −6 °F (−21 °C) on January 6.[20]

January 5, 2014

Green Bay, Wisconsin: −18 °F (−28 °C). The previous record low for this day was set in 1979.[21]

January 6, 2014

O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, Illinois: −16 °F (−27 °C). The previous record low for this day was set in 1884 and tied in 1988.[4]

January 7, 2014

Central Park, New York, New York: 4 °F (−16 °C). The previous record low was set in 1896.Cite error: The <ref> tag has too many names (see the help page).

Canada

Much like the Midwestern U.S., Canada also had temperatures colder than the North Pole as well and more. Some parts of Canada had temperatures colder than the concurrent temperatures on the planet Mars, on which the rover "Spirit" measured a low of −29 °C (−20 °F).[22] On January 6, the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba was the coldest major city in Canada. It reached a high of −28 °C (−18 °F), while on January 7, the predicted high was −31 °C (−24 °F).

Related extreme weather

Heavy snowfall or rainfall occurred on the leading edge of the weather pattern. Strong winds prevailed throughout the freeze, making the temperature feel even colder than it actually was. In addition to rainfall, snowfall, ice, and blizzard warnings, some places along the Great Lakes were also under wind warnings.[23] Some parts of Canada near the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley also experienced cryoseisms, or frost quakes.[24][25]

United States

Southeastern Michigan received 5 to 18 inches (130 to 460 mm) of snow.[26]

Snowfall was lighter farther south, with between 0.5 and 2 inches (13 and 51 mm) of snow falling in Tennessee.[27]

Canada

Much of Midwestern Ontario and northern Quebec was under blizzard warnings.[28] All highways in Midwestern Ontario were closed by heavy lake-effect snowfall.

Nearly all parts of Canada under the deep freeze experienced steady winds around 30 to 40 kilometres per hour (19 to 25 mph). In some areas along the north shore of Lake Erie, those winds reached 70 km/h (43 mph), with gusts as high as 100 km/h (62 mph).[23] This added significantly to the local wind chill levels.

Several Ontario locations along Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley experienced cryoseisms.[24] Toronto had also experienced cryoseisms after the sharp temperature drop after its severe Christmas Eve ice storm.

Impact

The extreme cold weather grounded thousands of flights and seriously affected other forms of transportation. Many power companies in the affected areas asked their customers to conserve electricity.

United States

Between 13 and 16 deaths have been attributed to the polar vortex, with dangerous roadway conditions and extreme cold being cited as causes.[21][29][30]

At least 3,600 flights were cancelled on January 6, and several thousand were cancelled over the preceding weekend.[1] Further delays were caused by the freeze in airports which do not possess de-icing equipment.[31] At O'Hare Airport in Chicago, the fuel supplies froze.[32]

Amtrak cancelled scheduled passenger rail service having connections through Chicago due to heavy snows or extreme cold. [33]

Between January 5 and January 6, temperatures fell 50 °F (28 °C) in Middle Tennessee, dropping to a high of 9 °F (−13 °C) on Monday, January 6 in Nashville. The strain on the power supply has left 1,200 customers in Nashville without power and the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency declared a state of emergency.[27]

24,000 lost power in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri.[34]

Canada

A power failure in Newfoundland, late on January 5, left 190,000 customers without electricity. Most of the outages were restored by the following day.[35]

Air transportation was delayed out of airports in Montreal and Ottawa, as well as completely cancelled at Toronto Pearson Airport due to concerns about de-icing.[citation needed] ExpressJet, a partner of United Airlines, cancelled its flights into and out of Winnipeg, stating that the combination of extreme low temperatures and ice crystals exceeded safe operating guidelines for their airplanes. However, other airlines continued flights into and out of Winnipeg, using the same kind of equipment.[36]

Government response

In various governmental jursidictions in the affected regions, schools; roads; and public offices have been closed.[19]

United States

In Minnesota, all public schools statewide were closed on January 6 by order of Governor Mark Dayton.[37]

In Indiana, more than fifty of the state's ninety-two counties, including virtually everywhere north of Indianapolis, closed all roads to all traffic except emergency vehicles.[38]

In Michigan, the mayor of Lansing, Virg Bernero, issued a snow emergency prohibiting all non-essential travel as well as closing down non-essential government offices.[39]

In Wisconsin, schools in most (if not all) of the state were closed on January 6 as well as on January 7.[40]

In Ohio, schools across the entire state were closed on January 6 and 7; including the state's largest two school districts, Columbus City Schools and Cleveland Metropolitan School District.[41] The Ohio State University, the state's largest and nation's second largest university completely shut down, for the first time in 36 years, on January 6 and 7; delaying the start of the spring semester by two days.[42]

Canada

Schools in much of Southern Ontario were closed because of the combined threat of extreme cold, strong winds, and heavy snowfall.

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c "N America weather: Polar vortex brings record temperatures". BBC News - US & Canada. BBC News Online. January 6, 2014. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  2. ^ Matt Smith; Josh Levs (January 7, 2014). "'It's too darn cold': Historic freeze brings rare danger warning". CNN. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  3. ^ Calamur, Krishnadev (January 5, 2014). "'Polar Vortex' Brings Bitter Cold, Heavy Snow To U.S." The Two Way. National Public Radio. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  4. ^ a b Preston, Jennifer (January 6, 2014). "'Polar Vortex' Brings Coldest Temperatures in Decades". The Lede. The New York Times. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  5. ^ "Arctic Monday for 140 million as 'POLAR VORTEX' barrels across the US: 4,400 flights canceled, schools closed as far south as ATLANTA and the coldest temperatures recorded in 20 years". Daily Mail. 6 January 2014. Retrieved 7 January 2014.
  6. ^ Baldwin, M. P.; Dunkerton, TJ (2001). "Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes". Science. 294 (5542): 581–4. doi:10.1126/science.1063315. PMID 11641495.
  7. ^ Song, Yucheng; Robinson, Walter A. (2004). "Dynamical Mechanisms for Stratospheric Influences on the Troposphere". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 61 (14): 1711–25. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1711:DMFSIO>2.0.CO;2.
  8. ^ Overland, James E. (2013). "Atmospheric science: Long-range linkage". Nature Climate Change. 4: 11–2. doi:10.1038/nclimate2079.
  9. ^ Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Xuejun; Francis, Jennifer A. (2013). "Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere". Nature Climate Change. 4: 45–50. doi:10.1038/nclimate2065.
  10. ^ Screen, J A (2013). "Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation". Environmental Research Letters. 8 (4): 044015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015.
  11. ^ Francis, Jennifer A.; Vavrus, Stephen J. (2012). "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (6): n/a. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.6801F. doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.
  12. ^ Petoukhov, Vladimir; Semenov, Vladimir A. (2010). "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents". Journal of Geophysical Research. 115. Bibcode:2010JGRD..11521111P. doi:10.1029/2009JD013568.
  13. ^ Masato, Giacomo; Hoskins, Brian J.; Woollings, Tim (2013). "Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models". Journal of Climate. 26 (18): 7044–59. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1.
  14. ^ a b Walsh, Bryan (2014-01-06), Polar Vortex: Climate Change Might Just Be Driving the Historic Cold Snap, TIME, retrieved 2014-01-07
  15. ^ Friedlander, Blaine (March 4, 2013). "Arctic ice loss amplified Superstorm Sandy violence". Cornell Chronicle. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  16. ^ a b Andrew Freedman (2014-01-02). "Arctic Outbreak: When the North Pole Came to Ohio".
  17. ^ "Australian Heatwave temperatures climb towards 50C at start of 2014 | Indymedia Australia". Indymedia.org.au. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  18. ^ "Freezing US - Is the Polar Vortex to Blame?". BBC.
  19. ^ a b Livingston, Ian (7 January 2014). "Polar vortex delivering D.C.'s coldest day in decades, and we're not alone". Washington Post. Retrieved 7 January 2014.
  20. ^ Sullivan, Brian K. (7 January 2014). "Chicago Colder Than South Pole as Frigid Air Clamps Down on U.S." Bloomberg. Retrieved 7 January 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  21. ^ a b DeMarche, Edmund (January 4, 2014). "'Polar vortex' set to bring dangerous, record-breaking cold to much of US". FoxNews.com. Fox News. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  22. ^ "'Winnipeg deep freeze as cold as uninhabited planet'". www.cbc.ca. Canadian Broadcasting Company. December 31, 2013. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  23. ^ a b "Alerts for: Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk - Environment Canada". Weather.gc.ca. 2013-04-16. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  24. ^ a b "'Frost quakes' wake Toronto residents on cold night - Toronto - CBC News". Cbc.ca. 2014-01-03. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  25. ^ "Graphic: The science of frost quakes". CBC.ca. 2014-01-03. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  26. ^ "Snow totals Jan 6 2013" (PDF). Click On Detroit. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  27. ^ a b "Dangerously Cold Temperatures Settle Into Mid-State". WTVF NewsChannel 5. January 6, 2014. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  28. ^ "Weather Alerts - Environment Canada". Weather.gc.ca. 2013-12-05. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  29. ^ Castellano, Anthony (January 3, 2013). "At Least 13 Died in Winter Storm That Dumped More Than 2 Feet of Snow Over Northeast". ABC News.
  30. ^ "North America arctic blast creeps east". BBC News. Retrieved 7 January 2014.
  31. ^ "OIA Can't Deice Frozen Jets". AviationPros.com. 2010-01-07. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  32. ^ http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-01-08/news/chi-snowstorm-ohare-deicing-08-jan08_1_de-icing-gallons-of-anti-icing-fluid-joe-lullo
  33. ^ "Service Alert". Amtrak. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  34. ^ 'Historic and life-threatening' freeze brings rare danger warning, CNN, January 6, 2014
  35. ^ CTVNews.ca Staff (January 6, 2014). "Power restored to majority of customers in Newfoundland". CTV News. Bell Media. Retrieved January 6, 2014.
  36. ^ "Winnipeg deep freeze as cold as uninhabited planet - Manitoba - CBC News". Cbc.ca. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  37. ^ Gov. Orders Schools Closed Monday Over Dangerous Cold, CBS, January 3, 2014. Accessed January 6, 2014.
  38. ^ County Travel Status for 01/06/2014 00:20:11 EDT, Indiana Department of Homeland Security, January 6, 2014. Accessed January 6, 2014.
  39. ^ "Mayor Declares Snow Emergency" (Press release). Office of Mayor Virg Bernero, Lansing, MI. 2014-01-05. Retrieved 2014-01-07.
  40. ^ Richards, Erin (January 7, 2014). "2nd day of school closings cuts into planned snow days". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  41. ^ "Temperatures continue to drop; districts cancel school". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved January 7, 2014.
  42. ^ "Frosty weather keeps Ohio State closed for a 2nd straight day". The Lantern. Retrieved January 7, 2014.


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