Illusion of validity
Illusion of validity is the belief that furtherly acquired information generates additional relevant data for predictions, even when it evidently does not.
Here is an imaginary example of illusion of validity. Let us picture a large hypothetic corporation. It only recruits people of a certain kind. Only those are wanted who have a prestigious college education which requires high SAT-scores. Also, job candidates are forced to participate in IQ tests. This despite the fact that some studies have shown a high degree of correlation between IQ and SAT scores, so once you know someone's SAT score, knowing their IQ in addition would not add much information and should increase confidence only very little; and, to whatever degree SAT scores correlate with GPA scores, GPA could be predicted from an IQ score nearly as effectively as SAT score.
Kahneman describes this bias as the first cognitive bias he conceived, in which he evaluated officer candidates for the Israeli Defense Forces according to a test[which?] that he knew to be nearly worthless but yet on which he still found it compelling to make strong predictions.
Kahnemann on YouTube: Explorations of the Mind: Intuition
- Meinolf Dierkes; Ariane Berthoin Antal; John Child; Ikujiro Nonaka (2003). Handbook of Organizational Learning and Knowledge. Oxford University Press. p. 22. ISBN 978-0-19-829582-2. Retrieved 9 September 2013. http://books.google.se/books?id=JRd7RZzzw_wC&pg=PA22&dq=Illusion+of+validity&hl=en&sa=X&ei=lr4tUoKtOKKK4wSi3IEw&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Illusion%20of%20validity&f=false
- Frey, Meredith C.; Douglas K. Detterman (2004). "Scholastic Assessment org?". Psychological Science 15 (6): 373–378. doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00687.x. PMID 15147489.
- Einhorn, Hillel; Robyn M. Hogarth (1978). "Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity". Psychological Review 85 (5): 395–416.
- Einhorn & Hogarth, 1978
- Kahneman, Daniel (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. pp. 209–211.