Root-mean-square deviation

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The root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) or root-mean-square error (RMSE) is a frequently used measure of the differences between values predicted by a model or an estimator and the values actually observed. RMSD is a good measure of accuracy.[citation needed] These individual differences are also called residuals, and the RMSD serves to aggregate them into a single measure of predictive power.

Contents

[edit] Formula

The RMSD of an estimator \hat{\theta} with respect to the estimated parameter θ is defined as the square root of the mean square error:

\operatorname{RMSD}(\hat{\theta}) = \sqrt{\operatorname{MSE}(\hat{\theta})} = \sqrt{\operatorname{E}((\hat{\theta}-\theta)^2)}.

For an unbiased estimator, the RMSD is the square root of the variance, known as the standard error.

In some disciplines, the RMSD is used to compare differences between two things that may vary, neither of which is accepted as the "standard". For example, when measuring the average distance between two oblong objects, expressed as random vectors


\mathbf{\theta}_1 = \begin{bmatrix}
  x_{1,1} \\
  x_{1,2} \\
  \vdots \\ 
  x_{1,n}
\end{bmatrix}
\qquad \mathrm{and} \qquad
\mathbf{\theta}_2 = \begin{bmatrix}
  x_{2,1} \\
  x_{2,2} \\
  \vdots \\ 
  x_{2,n}
\end{bmatrix}.

The formula becomes:

\operatorname{RMSD}(\mathbf{\theta}_1, \mathbf{\theta}_2) = \sqrt{\operatorname{MSE}(\mathbf{\theta}_1, \mathbf{\theta}_2)} = \sqrt{\operatorname{E}((\mathbf{\theta}_1 - \mathbf{\theta}_2)^2)} = \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (x_{1,i} - x_{2,i})^2}{n}}.

[edit] Normalized root-mean-square deviation

The normalized root-mean-square deviation or error (NRMSD or NRMSE) is the RMSD divided by the range of observed values,[citation needed] or:

\mathrm{NRMSD} = \frac{\mathrm{RMSD}}{x_\max -x_\min}

the value is often expressed as a percentage, where lower values indicate less residual variance.

[edit] CV (RMSD)

The coefficient of variation of the RMSD, CV(RMSD), or more commonly CV(RMSE), is defined as the RMSD normalized to the mean of the observed values:[citation needed]

 \mathrm{CV(RMSD)} = \frac {\mathrm{RMSD}}{\bar x}.

It is the same concept as the coefficient of variation except that RMSD replaces the standard deviation.

[edit] Applications

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy (1992). "Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons". pp. 69-80. http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/armstrong-errormeasures-empirical.pdf. 
  2. ^ Anderson, M.P.; Woessner, W.W. (1992). Applied Groundwater Modeling: Simulation of Flow and Advective Transport (2nd Edition ed.). Academic Press. 
  3. ^ Ensemble Neural Network Model
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