Oil depletion: Difference between revisions
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*[http://www.peakoil.net/ http://www.peakoil.net] |
*[http://www.peakoil.net/ http://www.peakoil.net] |
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*[http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ Wolf at the Door – beginner's guide to peak oil] |
*[http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ Wolf at the Door – beginner's guide to peak oil] |
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*[http://www.theintelligentcommunity.com/ The <i>Intelligent Community Initiative</i> and Operation Energy Transition – A three-part solution to the Peak Oil crisis involving conservation, movement to alternative energy sources, and societal re-architecture] |
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*[http://www.theoildrum.com/ The Oil Drum – discussions about energy and our future] |
*[http://www.theoildrum.com/ The Oil Drum – discussions about energy and our future] |
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*[http://www.peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ The thinking mans response to Peak Oilers] |
*[http://www.peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ The thinking mans response to Peak Oilers] |
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Revision as of 16:54, 16 July 2008
Oil depletion is the process of extracting and consuming the world's oil supply, which is effectively fixed because petroleum formation takes millions of years.
The American Petroleum Institute, as reported in Popular Science, estimated in 1999 the world's oil supply will be depleted between 2062 and 2094.[3] The 1999 world oil supply estimate was between 1.4 and 2 trillion barrels.[3] However, at that time drilling depth was limited to 3,000 feet. Recently (as of 2008), 29,060 feet is being penetrated below the Gulf of Mexico sea floor — the sea floor itself is more than a mile below sea level.[4] Even with the increase in drilling capability, world oil demand has increased more than new oil discoveries. The proven reserves in 2004 of 1.25 trillion barrels was being depleted at 80 million barrels per day.[1] This lowered the estimated oil depletion year to 2057. The current daily depletion (as of 2008) is 85 million barrels.[2] The United States Energy Information Administration predicts world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030. See [1].
The world's oil supply is fixed because it is no longer being naturally produced. Several hundred million years ago, plankton and bacteria (that fed on decaying plankton) thrived in the oceans of the then carbon dioxide rich atmosphere.[5] Also at that time, volcanic sulfur dioxide lined the ocean floor, preventing living creatures from inhabiting, and therefore consuming, the plankton and bacteria after their death. Those plankton and bacteria that settled in porous sandstone or limestone, and those plankton and bacteria that were then capped by shale or salt, were allowed to heat and become pressurized to form oil.[1]
The Hubbert peak is an theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional petroleum (and other fossil fuels) extraction and depletion. The Hubbert peak is named after its author, United States geophysicist, M. King Hubbert. The concept of passing the peak-point is to reach the downward side of the oil production curve. By Hubbert's projection, this point either has already been passed in 2007 or is about to be passed in 2010.[6]
Production decline models
Production decline occurs in a predictable manner based on geological circumstances, governmental policies, and engineering practices. The shape of the decline curve varies depending upon whether one considers a well, a field, a set of fields, or the world.
Oil well production decline
In theory, Oil well production follow an exponential decline curve Cite error: A <ref> tag is missing the closing </ref> (see the help page). [7] The law of supply and demand predicts that if less farmers are producing food the price of food will rise. [8]
Further reading
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press (August 11, 2003), ISBN 0–691–11625–3.
- Richard Heinberg. The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Press ISBN 0–86571–482–7
- Mathew R. Simmons. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Wiley (June 10, 2005), ISBN 0–471–73876-X
References
- ^ a b c "The End of Cheap Oil". National Geographic. June 2004.
- ^ a b "Tapped Out". Retrieved 2008-06-18.
- ^ a b "FYI". Popular Science. March 1999.
- ^ "Thunder Horse Field, Gulf of Mexico, USA". Retrieved 2008-06-18.
- ^ "What is Oil?". Retrieved 2008-06-20.
- ^ M. King Hubbert (1956-06). "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice'" (PDF). API. p. 36. Retrieved 2008-04-18.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ How Food and Fuel Compete for Land by Lester Brown – The Globalist > > Global Energy
- ^ "The Economist – The End Of Cheap Food".
See also
External links
- http://www.oilposter.org – Free for teachers.
- http://www.communitysolution.org/cuba.html – Learn from Cuba.
- http://www.peakoil.net
- Wolf at the Door – beginner's guide to peak oil
- The Intelligent Community Initiative and Operation Energy Transition – A three-part solution to the Peak Oil crisis involving conservation, movement to alternative energy sources, and societal re-architecture
- The Oil Drum – discussions about energy and our future
- The thinking mans response to Peak Oilers
- The dutch foundation Peakoil
- Peak Oil and Natural Gas Depletion: The world most serious question (Published June 12, 2003)