Joe Bastardi

Joe Bastardi
File:JoeBastardiSmallSmall.jpg
Born	July 18, 1955 Providence, Rhode Island
Citizenship	United States
Alma mater	Penn State University
Scientific career
Fields	Meterology
Institutions	Accuweather

Joe Bastardi is a weather forecaster at State College, PA based AccuWeather.

Biography

Bastardi was born and raised in Providence, Rhode Island. He spent his childhood moving frequently, first to Texas in 1960, then to Somers Point, New Jersey in 1965, and finally ending up in college at Penn State University, where he was a member of the varsity wrestling team. He graduated on March 4, 1978, and was hired by AccuWeather shortly after. He currently holds the title of "Expert Senior Forecaster".

In 1992 at age 37, Bastardi married Jessica Jane Strunk, age 26, also a Penn State graduate. They have a son Garrett (born 1996) and a daughter Jessica (born 1998).[1]. In his free time, Bastardi enjoys bodybuilding, and has won the NABBA American Bodybuilding Championships [2].

His Work

Bastardi's forecasts were previously offered free to the public on Accuweather's main site. However, in the early-2000s, Accuweather launched its "professional site," and his forecasts were made available to paying subscribers only. He also forecasts for corporate clients. Despite his recent focus on private forecasting, Bastardi frequently appears on cable news channels, such as CNN and Fox News during storms.

Bastardi produces several weather analysis videos most weekdays and some weekend days including "Bastardi's Big Dog", "Long Ranger", and "Point-Counterpoint". His Long Ranger video features his thoughts on long-range trends, while the Point-Counterpoint video features an "argument" between himself and another AccuWeather meteorologist, such as Ken Reeves. Bastardi rarely touches upon short-range topics in these videos, even ignoring an impending storm in favor of the next one that may still be several days off. In addition to his videos, Bastardi contributes to official Accuweather press releases, such as annual winter forecasts. He also serves corporate clients such as oil companies, who depend on the weather for their revenue streams[3].

Bastardi writes a column that generally summarizes his views in the videos. Bastardi sometimes contributes columns several times a day when a storm is approaching. He maintains that he hasn't taken a day off since 2002, including "Christmas and Easter" [4].

Forecasting style

Bastardi's forecasting style is to make a definite prediction of what he believes will occur. Other forecasters believe that forecasting is too imprecise a science to make definite calls, and instead provide clients with probabilities of weather events. One writer described Bastardi's forecasting style as "seeing Mother Nature as a foe:"

Bastardi, whose title at the Accuweather meteorological service is "expert senior forecaster," is brash, driven and outspoken. When he is not poring over weather maps he is likely to be pumping iron as part of his bodybuilding regimen.

— Robert Campbell, Reuters[5]

The disagreement between these two styles has caused conflicts and criticism.

Support of his style

Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for its probabilistic approach to forecasting. In his blog, he sometimes comments on specific forecasts, such as the following NWS forecast:

Look at this: TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. I continue to marvel at NOAA forecasts. Does anyone in the NWSFO understand they put out forecasts that make no sense? Why not at least make sense? Now I do have a disagreement with them as to snow totals, for instance at the Jersey Shore where I think they wind up closer to 3 than 1, but that is not my problem. My problem is the darn forecast says they will get an inch, that it is a fact that there will be an inch, but then has SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING. How the heck can it only be likely? It has to snow to accumulate an inch, doesn't it? How is there a 70% chance of snow, but you say it will accumulate an inch? How can it accumulate an inch, if there is a chance it doesn't fall (30%)?

— Joe Bastardi, Accuweather.com Professional, December 5, 2007

Some agree with Bastardi's criticism of the NWS, arguing that historical records of forecasts provide enough evidence of private weather forecasters' accuracy. A study by ForecastWatch.com, a company that provides services to AccuWeather, found that NWS forecasts had a 21% greater overall error rate than a selection of private forecasts. The same study also determined that the NWS's forecasts for snow accumulations had an even higher error rate of 45%. [6]

Bastardi's hurricane season forecasts have proven to be very accurate in many cases. In 2007, Bastardi predicted that there would be 15-17 named storms, and there were actually 14 named storms. He also predicted 3 major hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson category 3 or greater, and two occurred during that year [7].

Criticism of his style

On the other hand, some criticize Bastardi for what they see as a tendency for his "over-hyping" of forecasts, arguing that blatantly wrong forecasts cost money and even lives. In one case, Bastardi mispredicted where Hurricane Rita would make landfall. His forecast stated: "NO CHANGES ON TRACK. LANDFALL NEAR GLS, THEN SLOW MOVE UP I-45 CORRIDOR. STORM TRAP SET AND BACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER POST LATER, BUT MAJOR DISASTER SCENARIO MAY COME TO PASS...EVEN BEYOND THE OBVIOUS OF 930-950 MB HURRICANE HIT." The Houston Chronicle later commented on Bastardi's "no-probabilities" method of forecasting in regard to Rita, designating him "worst weather forecaster:"

Bastardi seemed to lie at the other end of the spectrum, seeking to scare the bloody daylights out of viewers. Even on Friday, long after the [National Weather Service] forecast had moved well east of Galveston, Bastardi was still calling for a direct hit on Galveston and Houston. By Friday evening, when the storm neared land, he called for landfall near Port Arthur at 150 mph, nearly category-5 strength. At landfall Rita's winds were 120 mph, and considerably lower in Galveston.

— Scott Stevens, Houston Chronicle [8]

Some Internet bloggers agree with the perception that Bastardi attempts to "scare" consumers. In regard to the effects of hurricanes on oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, one blogger writes:

And, poor old Joe, he just can't help himself. He has to throw in a little scare. Hey, why else would we listen to him?

— carbondebits.org, October 2, 2007[9]

Bastardi responds to these comments by arguing that extreme events do occur and that they need to be predicted correctly when they happen. According to Bastardi, "My main course of business is not to get attention, it is to be right."[10]

Stance on Global Warming

Bastardi is skeptical about the significance or the severity of human-induced global warming. He frequently argues in his columns that extreme weather events occur occasionally and that there is not enough evidence to state that such events are unusual. For example, in regards to the effect of climate change on hurricanes, Bastardi stated:

I have no doubt this may be some value to human-induced global warming, but there are a lot of things that are happening now that have happened before.

— Joe Bastardi, Larry King Live, June 28, 2006 [11]

Zones and reporting

Bastardi publishes his forecasts in "zones," and later reports "scorecards" of each zone. He maintains that he attempts to evaluate his accuracy as completely as possible. Since much of his forecasting is for long-term weather events, Bastardi frequently publishes his scorecards at the end of the seasons or after a major event, such as a hurricane landfall, has occurred.

Related Links

• Accuweather official biography