Page semi-protected

Global warming

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

refer to caption
Global mean surface-temperature change from 1880 to 2018, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The 1951–1980 mean is 14.19 °C (57.54 °F).[1] The black line is the global annual mean, and the red line is the five-year local regression line. The blue uncertainty bars show a 95% confidence interval.
refer to caption
Average global temperatures from 2014 to 2018 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by multiple effects of the warming.[2][3] The term commonly refers to the mainly human-caused observed warming since pre-industrial times and its projected continuation,[4] though there were also much earlier periods of global warming.[5] In the modern context the terms global warming and climate change are commonly used interchangeably,[6] but climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes to precipitation and impacts that differ by region.[7][8] Many of the observed warming changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record, and in historical and paleoclimate proxy records of climate change over thousands to millions of years.[2]

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concluded, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."[9] The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) to 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) depending on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.[10] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[11][a] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[13][14]

Future climate change effects are expected to include rising sea levels, ocean acidification, regional changes in precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[15][16][17] Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Predicted regional precipitation effects include more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall with floods, and heavy snowfall.[18] Effects directly significant to humans are predicted to include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields, and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.[19][20] Environmental impacts appear likely to include the extinction or relocation of ecosystems as they adapt to climate change, with coral reefs,[21] mountain ecosystems, and Arctic ecosystems most immediately threatened.[22] Because the climate system has a large "inertia" and greenhouse gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, climatic changes and their effects will continue to become more pronounced for many centuries even if further increases to greenhouse gases stop.[23]

Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[24] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.[25] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required[26] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels,[b] with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[28] Some scientists call into question climate adaptation feasibility, with higher emissions scenarios,[29] or the two degree temperature target.[30]

Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed that a median of 54% of all respondents asked consider it "a very serious problem". Significant regional differences exist, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) among the least concerned.[31]

Observed temperature changes

Annual (thin lines) and five-year lowess smooth (thick lines) for the temperature anomalies averaged over the Earth's land area (red line) and sea surface temperature anomalies (blue line) averaged over the part of the ocean that is free of ice at all times (open ocean).
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black.
The geologic temperature record for the last 65 million years, showing potential global temperature steady states that greenhouse gases could trigger through feedback tipping points. [32]

Multiple independently produced datasets confirm that between 1880 and 2012, the global average (land and ocean) surface temperature increased by 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C.[33] Since 1979 the rate of warming has approximately doubled (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, against 0.07±0.02 °C per decade).[34][35] Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[36]

Although the increase of the average near-surface atmospheric temperature is commonly used to track global warming, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has accumulated in the oceans.[37] The rest has melted ice and warmed the continents and the atmosphere.[38][c]

The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups.[39] Examples include sea level rise,[40] widespread melting of snow and land ice,[41] increased heat content of the oceans,[39] increased humidity,[39] and the earlier timing of spring events,[42] e.g., the flowering of plants.[43]

Regional trends

Global warming refers to global averages, with the amount of warming varying by region. Since 1979, global average land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as global average ocean temperatures.[44] This is due to the larger heat capacity of the oceans and because oceans lose more heat by evaporation.[45] Where greenhouse gas emissions occur does not impact the location of warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet, although localized black carbon deposits on snow and ice do contribute to Arctic warming.[46]

The Northern Hemisphere and North Pole have heated much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, its arrangement around the Arctic Ocean has resulted in the maximum surface area flipping from reflective snow and ice cover to ocean and land surfaces that absorb more sunlight.[47] Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.[48] As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, ocean currents like the gulf stream that are driven by that temperature difference are weakening.[49] Studies have also linked the rapidly warming Arctic to extreme weather in mid-latitudes as the jet stream becomes more erratic.[50]

The rate of ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets in the Antarctic is a key area of uncertainty since Antarctica contains 90% of potential sea level rise.[51] Polar amplification and increased ocean warmth are undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, potentially resulting in more rapid sea level rise.[52] To date, increased snowfall in Antarctica has offset a third of ice loss from West Antarctica, with East Antarctica ice sheets recently beginning to shed mass as well.[53][54][55]

Short-term fluctuations vs. overall trend

Because the climate system has large thermal inertia, it can take centuries for the climate to fully adjust. While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. Global surface temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long-term trends, and can temporarily mask or magnify them.[56][57]

An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was dubbed the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists.[58][59][60] Throughout this period ocean heat storage continued to progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years surface temperatures have spiked upwards. Climate models account for the global warming hiatus by incorporating heating and cooling from El Niño / La Nina events, sunspot cycles, and volcanic eruptions that reach the stratosphere.[61]

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).
CO
2
concentrations over the last 400,000 years.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions attributed to different sectors as of the year 2010. Emissions are given as a percentage share of total emissions, measured in carbon dioxide-equivalents, using global warming potentials from the IPCC fifth Assessment Report.

By itself, the climate system may generate random changes in global temperatures for years to decades at a time, but long-term changes emanate only from so-called external forcings.[62][63][64] These forcings are "external" to the climate system, but not necessarily external to Earth.[65] Examples of external forcings include changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[66]

Greenhouse gases

Global carbon dioxide emissions by country in 2015

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet's atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tyndall,[67] was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896,[68] and the hypothesis was reported in the popular press as early as 1912.[69][70] The scientific description of global warming was further developed in the 1930s through the 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.[71][72]

On Earth, an atmosphere containing naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases causes air temperature near the surface to be warmer by about 33 °C (59 °F) than it would be in their absence.[73][d] Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water.[74] The major greenhouse gases are water vapour, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7%.[75][76][77]

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[78] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[79][80][81][82] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[83]

Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[84] Another significant non-fuel source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the calcination of limestone for clinker production, a chemical process which releases CO2.[85] There are efforts to develop types of cement that produce less CO2 but it is feared not enough is being done.[86] Estimates of global CO2 emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%.[87]

In May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO2 taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years.[88][89] Monthly global CO2 concentrations exceeded 400 ppm in March 2015, probably for the first time in several million years.[90] According to the global carbon project, carbon emission rates plateaued from 2014 to 2016, rose by 1.6% in 2017, then rose again by 2.7% in 2018.[91]

Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[92] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[93][94]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attributions of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty.[95][96]:289

Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[97] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[98][99] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[100] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.[101] Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[102]

Aerosols and soot

Refer to caption
Ship tracks can be seen as lines in these clouds over the Atlantic Ocean on the East Coast of the United States, an example of the Twomey effect.
Refer to caption
Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative forcing of climate change.[103] Radiative forcing values are for the year 2005, relative to the pre-industrial era (1750).[103] The contribution of solar irradiance to radiative forcing is 5% of the value of the combined radiative forcing due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.[104]

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, was observed from 1961 until 1990.[105] Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols, produced by volcanoes and human-made pollutants, are thought to be the main cause of this dimming. They exert a cooling effect by reflecting incoming sunlight, with NASA estimating that between 1850 and 2010 aerosols limited global warming by 1 degree Celsius.[106] Aerosol removal by precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols an atmospheric lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols can remain for a few years.[107] Global aerosols have been declining since 1990, removing some of the masking of global warming that aerosols had been providing.[108][109][110]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, a phenomenon known as the Twomey effect.[111] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[112] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of aerosols represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[113]

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot can also increase global warming when deposited on snow and ice. Not only does it increase the absorption of sunlight, it also directly exacerbates melting and sea level rise.[114][115] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2050.[116] When soot is suspended in the atmosphere it directly absorbs solar radiation, heating the atmosphere and cooling the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[117][118] The influences of atmospheric particles, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[119]

Solar activity

Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured by satellites.[120] Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change.[121] Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when only taking into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity.[122][123]

Another line of evidence for the warming not being attributable to the Sun is the differing temperature changes at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere.[124] According to basic physical principles, the greenhouse effect produces warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), but cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).[125][126] If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and the stratosphere would be expected, but that has not been the case.[127]

While variations in solar activity have not produced recent global warming, variations in solar output over geologic time (millions to billions of years ago) are believed to have caused major changes in the earth's climate.[128] The 11 year solar cycle of sunspot activity also introduces climate changes that have a small cyclical effect on annual global temperatures.[129]

Variations in Earth's orbit

The tilt of the Earth's axis and the shape of its orbit around the Sun vary slowly over tens of thousands of years. This changes climate by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar energy at the Earth's surface.[130] By reviewing ice cores and seafloor sediments, it has been found that periodic glacial and interglacial periods over last few million years have been driven by this process.[131]

During the last few thousand years, this phenomenon contributed to a slow cooling trend at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during summer, a trend that was reversed by greenhouse-gas-induced warming during the 20th century.[132][133][134][135] Orbital cycles favorable for glaciation are not expected within the next 50,000 years.[136][137]

Climate change feedback

The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation, whereas sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent.[138]

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is increased by positive feedbacks and reduced by negative feedbacks.[139] The main negative feedback to global temperature change is radiative cooling to space as infrared radiation, which increases strongly with increasing temperature.[140] Uncertainty over the effect of other feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing scenario.[141]

Arctic amplification has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world,[48] resulting in a strong positive feedback to global temperature averages. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic reduces the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth's surface.[142] Arctic amplification also causes methane to be released as permafrost melts, which is expected to surpass land use changes as the second strongest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases by the end of the century.[143]

The carbon cycle has been a negative feedback so far, with roughly half of total CO2 emissions being absorbed annually by plants on land and in oceans.[144] This results from carbon dioxide stimulating plant growth, with an estimated 30% increase in plant growth from 2000 to 2017.[145] The limits and reversal point for this feedback are an area of uncertainty.[146] As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean it is acidifying and ocean circulation can change, changing the rate at which the ocean can absorb atmospheric carbon.[147] On land, greater plant growth will be constrained by nitrogen levels and can be reversed by plant heat stress, desertification, and the release of carbon from soil as the ground warms.[148]

Another major uncertainty is how cloud cover may change in the future. To date, cloud cover has also been a negative feedback, with NASA estimating that aerosols produced by the burning of hydrocarbons have limited warming by half from 1850 to 2010.[106] An analysis of satellite data between 1983 and 2009 reveals that cloud tops are reaching higher into the atmosphere and that cloudy storm tracks are shifting toward Earth's poles, suggesting clouds will be a positive feedback in the future.[149] A 2019 study predicts that if greenhouse gases reach three times the current level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that stratocumulus clouds could abruptly disperse, contributing an additional 8 degrees Celsius of warming.[150]

A concern going forward is that positive feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a different stable state even if greenhouse gas emissions are eliminated. A 2018 study tried to identify a planetary threshold which could lead to a new hothouse climate state by studying self-reinforcing feedbacks and the past behavior of Earth's climate system. The authors found that an increase of as little as 2 °C (3.6 °F) over pre-industrial levels could lead to cascading effects that produce a hothouse Earth scenario, with risks increasingly sharply from there.[151] Some tipping point effects like the extinction of coral reefs and flooding of deltas could occur in this century while others like the complete melting of Antarctica would take several centuries.[152]

Climate models

Future CO2 projections, including all forcing agents' atmospheric CO2-equivalent concentrations (in parts-per-million-by-volume (ppmv)) according to four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways).
Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B).[153] This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit: NOAA GFDL.[154]

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.[155] Computer models are then run on supercomputers to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.[156] There are more than two dozen scientific institutions that develop climate models.[156] Model forecasts vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and different assumptions about the impact of different feedbacks on climate sensitivity.

A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical climate. With this information, scientists can produce scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions may vary in the future. Scientists can then run these scenarios through physical climate models to generate climate change projection.[156]

Climate models include different external forcings for their models. For different greenhouse gas inputs four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are used: "a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5).[157] Models also include changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the sun's activity and volcanic forcing.[156] RCPs only look at concentrations of greenhouse gases, factoring out uncertainty as to whether the carbon cycle will continue to remove about half of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year.[158]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.[159] Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage[160] and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.[161] Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.[162][163] The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".[164]

Effects

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in January 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program for the Fourth National Climate Assessment.[165]
Map of the Earth with a six-meter sea level rise represented in red.
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Environmental

As the climate change melts sea ice, the U.S. Geological Survey projects that two-thirds of polar bears will disappear by 2050.[166][167]

The environmental effects of global warming are broad and far-reaching. They include the following diverse effects:

Biosphere

Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[193] Rising temperatures have been found to push bees to their physiological limits, and could cause the extinction of bee populations.[194] A 2012 study concluded that continued ocean uptake of CO2 affects the brains and central nervous system of certain fish species, and that this impacts their ability to hear, smell, and evade predators. The study authors note, "We've now established it isn't simply the acidification of the oceans that is causing disruption – as is the case with shellfish and plankton with chalky skeletons – but the actual dissolved CO2 itself is damaging the fishes' nervous systems."[195]

Social systems

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming or shifts in precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven across the world.[196] Many risks are expected to increase with higher magnitudes of global warming.[197] All regions are at risk of experiencing negative impacts.[198] Low-latitude, less developed areas face the greatest risk.[199] A study from 2015 concluded that economic growth (gross domestic product) of poorer countries is much more impaired with projected future climate warming, than previously thought.[200] In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.[201][202] This could lead to issues of homelessness in countries with low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.[203]

Examples of impacts of global warming on humans include:

  • A meta-analysis concluded in 2014 that each degree of temperature rise will increase violence by up to 20%, which includes fist fights, violent crimes, civil unrest, or wars.[204][205][206][207]
  • Estimates in 2015 based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario from additional greenhouse gases released from permafrost, found associated impact damages to the economy to be US$43 trillion.[208]
  • Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[209] Global warming of around 4.6 °C relative to pre-industrial levels could pose a large risk to global and regional food security.[210] The impact of climate change on crop productivity for the four major crops was negative for wheat and maize, and neutral for soy and rice, in the years 1960–2013.[211] While crop production has increased in some mid-latitude regions such as the UK and northeast China, economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally.[212] See also Climate change and agriculture.
  • Generally impacts on public health will be more negative than positive.[213][214][215] Impacts include: the effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life;[216] and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures.[214][215][217] There has been a shift from cold- to heat-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming.[212] Temperature rise has been connected to increased numbers of suicides.[218]
  • Livelihoods of indigenous peoples of the Arctic have been altered by climate change, and there is emerging evidence of climate change impacts on livelihoods of indigenous peoples in other regions. Regional impacts of climate change are now observable at more locations than before, on all continents and across ocean regions.[212]

Regional

The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian megadeltas are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.[219] Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity.[220] Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation. By 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change (see Climate change in Africa).[220] Climate variability and change is projected to severely compromise agricultural production, including access to food, across Africa.[220] Research projects that regions may even become uninhabitable, due to a high wet-bulb temperature.[221]

Polar bears enter inhabited areas more than in the past, owing to climate change. Global warming reduces sea-ice and forces bears to visit land in search of food. The 2019 Mass invasion of Russian polar bears happened in February, with polar bears entering northeastern Novaya Zemlya. Dozens of polar bears were seen entering homes and public buildings and inhabited areas, so Arkhangelsk region authorities declared a state of emergency on Saturday.[222][223]

Responses

Mitigation

Refer to caption and image description
The graph on the right shows three "pathways" to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target, labelled "global technology", "decentralized solutions", and "consumption change". Each pathway shows how various measures (e.g., improved energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy) could contribute to emissions reductions. Image credit: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.[224]

Mitigation of climate change are actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.[225] There is a large potential for future reductions in emissions by a combination of activities, including energy conservation and increased energy efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technologies, such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage;[226][227] and enhancing carbon sinks through, for example, reforestation and preventing deforestation.[226][227] A 2015 report by Citibank concluded that transitioning to a low carbon economy would yield positive return on investments.[228]

Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[229][230] Pledges made as part of the Cancún agreements are broadly consistent with having a likely chance (66 to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[230]

In limiting warming at below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.[231] Many integrated models are unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic assumptions are made about the availability of mitigation technologies.[232]

Using bicycles reduces GHG emissions.[233]

Adaptation

Climate change adaptation is another policy response. The adaptation may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of global warming, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention.[234] Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.[226] The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.[226] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[235]

Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since those countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming.[236] That is, the capacity and potential for humans to adapt (called adaptive capacity) is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less capacity to adapt.[237]

Climate engineering

Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate modification of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e.g. by NASA[238] and the Royal Society.[239] Techniques under research fall generally into the categories solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.[240]

Society and culture

Political discussion

refer to caption
Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations."[241] To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO
2
, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.[242]

Most countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[243] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference of the climate system.[244] As stated in the Convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.[245] The Framework Convention was agreed on in 1992, but global emissions have risen since then.[246]

During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing countries)[247]:4 pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[248] This was justified on the basis that the developed countries' emissions had contributed most to the cumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries, and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[96]:290

This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention,[96]:290 which entered into legal effect in 2005.[249] In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012.[249] United States President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centres such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."[247]:5

At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[250][251] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010)[252]:9 aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[253] The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[254]

Scientific discussion

Presentation video of global warming

The discussion continues in scientific articles that are peer-reviewed and assessed by scientists who work in the relevant fields and participate in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scientific consensus as of 2013 stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that it "is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".[255] A 2008 report by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences stated that most scientists by then agreed that observed warming in recent decades was primarily caused by human activities increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.[93] In 2005 the Royal Society stated that while the overwhelming majority of scientists were in agreement on the main points, some individuals and organizations opposed to the consensus on urgent action needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had tried to undermine the science and work of the IPCC.[256] National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[257]

In 2018, the IPCC published SR15, which warned that if current rate of greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated, major crises could occur by 2040 as the planet warms by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius). The report said that preventing such crises will require a swift transformation of the global economy that has "no documented historic precedent."[258]

In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.[259] No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.[260][261] In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".[262] A July 2017 study published in Environmental Research Letters asserts that the most significant action individuals could make to mitigate their own carbon footprint is to have fewer children, followed by living vehicle-free, forgoing air travel, and adopting a plant-based diet.[263]

Public opinion and disputes

Global warming was the cover story in this 2007 issue of Ms. magazine

The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[264][265] regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is completely or partially an artefact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.

In the United States from about 1990 onwards, American conservative think tanks had begun challenging the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming would have benefits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.[266] Some people dispute aspects of climate change science.[256][267] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[268][269][270][271] On the other hand, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[272] or even called for policies to reduce global warming.[273] Global oil companies have begun to acknowledge climate change exists and is caused by human activities and the burning of fossil fuels.[274]

The global warming problem came to international public attention in the late 1980s. Polling groups began to track opinions on the subject, at first mainly in the United States.[275] The longest consistent polling, by Gallup in the US, found relatively small deviations of 10% or so from 1998 to 2015 in opinion on the seriousness of global warming, but with increasing polarization between those concerned and those unconcerned.[276]

Due to confusing media coverage in the early 1990s, issues such as ozone depletion and climate change were often mixed up, affecting public understanding of these issues.[277] According to a 2010 survey of Americans, a majority thought that the ozone layer and spray cans contribute to global warming.[278] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[279] However, the CFCs used in spray cans are powerful greenhouse gases, with some estimates attributing CFC emissions during the 1970s to have caused almost half of the global warming for that decade.[280]

By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there had been a substantial decrease since 2007–2008 in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed global warming as a serious threat. In the US, just a little over half the population (53%) viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; this was 10 points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern: 73% said global warming was a serious threat to their families.[281] This global poll also found that people were more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.[282]

A March–May 2013 survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press polled 39 countries about global threats. According to 54% of those questioned, global warming featured top of the perceived global threats.[283]

History

The history of climate change science began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first identified.[68] In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change the climate. In the 1960s, the warming effect of carbon dioxide gas became increasingly convincing.[284] By the 1990s, as a result of improving fidelity of computer models and observational work confirming the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, a consensus position formed: greenhouse gases were deeply involved in most climate changes, and human-caused emissions were bringing discernible global warming. Since the 1990s, scientific research on climate change has included multiple disciplines and has expanded.[285] Research during this period has been summarized in the Assessment Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Terminology

Research in the 1950s suggested increasing temperatures, and a 1952 newspaper reported "climate change". This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO
2
emissions on the greenhouse effect, "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result." Both phrases were used only occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" The phrase began to come into common use, and in 1976 Mikhail Budyko's statement that "a global warming up has started" was widely reported.[284] Other studies, such as a 1971 MIT report, referred to the human impact as "inadvertent climate modification", but an influential 1979 National Academy of Sciences study headed by Jule Charney followed Broecker in using global warming to refer to rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of increased CO
2
as climate change.[286]

In 1986 and November 1987, NASA climate scientist James Hansen gave testimony to Congress on global warming. There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of 1988, and when Hansen testified in the Senate on 23 June he sparked worldwide interest.[285] He said "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[287] Public attention increased over the summer, and global warming became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public discourse.[286]

In a 2008 NASA article on usage, Erik M. Conway defined global warming as "the increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases", while climate change was "a long-term change in the Earth's climate, or of a region on Earth". Because effects such as changing patterns of rainfall and rising sea levels would probably have more impact than temperatures alone, he considered global climate change a more scientifically accurate term, and like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NASA website emphasized this wider context.[286]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK.[12] The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the US. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
  2. ^ Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) described in the Cancún Agreement. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two-thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[27]
  3. ^ Scientific journals use "global warming" to describe an increasing global average temperature just at earth's surface, and most of these authorities further limit "global warming" to such increases caused by human activities or increasing greenhouse gases.
  4. ^ The greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).

Citations

  1. ^ "Land and Ocean Summary". Berkeley Earth. 18 February 2019.
  2. ^ a b Stocker, T.F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S.K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; Midgley, P.M. (2013). "The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 4. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.
  3. ^ "Myths vs. Facts: Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act". U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved 7 August 2017. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).
  4. ^ Mach, Katharine J.; Serge, Planton; von Stechow, Christoph (2014). "Annex II Glossary" (PDF). IPCC SYR AR5 (Report). p. 124. Global warming refers to the gradual increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions. {WGIII}
  5. ^ Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Schulz, Michael (2013). "5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). pp. 389, 399–400. The PETM [around 55.5–55.3 million years ago] was marked by ... global warming of 4°C to 7°C ..... Deglacial global warming occurred in two main steps from 17.5 to 14.5 ka [thousand years ago] and 13.0 to 10.0 ka.
  6. ^ Shaftel, Holly (January 2016). "What's in a name? Weather, global warming and climate change". NASA Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. Retrieved 12 October 2018. 'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. .... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century .... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming
  7. ^ "What's the difference between global warming and climate change?". NOAA Climate.gov. 17 June 2015. Retrieved 15 October 2018. Global warming refers only to the Earth’s rising surface temperature, while climate change includes warming and the 'side effects' of warming—like melting glaciers, heavier rainstorms, or more frequent drought. Said another way, global warming is one symptom of the much larger problem of human-caused climate change.
  8. ^ Mach, Katharine J.; Serge, Planton; von Stechow, Christoph (2014). "Annex II Glossary". IPCC SYR AR5 (Report). p. 120. Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. .... {WGI, II, III}
  9. ^ "IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)" (PDF). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 17. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
  10. ^ "IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis -Technical Summary" (PDF). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 89–90.
  11. ^ "Joint Science Academies' Statement" (PDF). Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  12. ^ Kirby, Alex (17 May 2001). "Science academies back Kyoto". BBC News. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
  13. ^ "Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming". Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. NASA. Archived from the original on 28 June 2018. Retrieved 7 August 2017.
  14. ^ "List of Organizations". The Governor's Office of Planning & Research, State of California. Archived from the original on 7 August 2017. Retrieved 7 August 2017.
  15. ^ Field, Christopher B.; Barros, Vicente R.; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; et al. "IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Technical Summary" (PDF). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 44–46.
  16. ^ Solomon et al., Technical Summary, Section TS.5.3: Regional-Scale Projections, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  17. ^ a b Zeng, Ning; Yoon, Jinho (1 September 2009). "Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming". Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (17): L17401. Bibcode:2009GeoRL..3617401Z. doi:10.1029/2009GL039699. ISSN 1944-8007.
  18. ^ On snowfall:
  19. ^ Battisti, David S.; Naylor, Rosamond L. (9 January 2009). "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat". Science. 323 (5911): 240–44. doi:10.1126/science.1164363. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 19131626.
  20. ^ US NRC 2012, p. 26
  21. ^ Knowlton, Nancy (2001-05-08). "The future of coral reefs". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 98 (10): 5419–5425. doi:10.1073/pnas.091092998. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 33228. PMID 11344288.
  22. ^ EPA (19 January 2017). "Climate Impacts on Ecosystems".
  23. ^ Clark, Peter U. (8 February 2016). "Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 6 (4): 360–69. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..360C. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2923.
  24. ^ "Status of Ratification of the Convention". UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2011.. Most countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C limit. As of 25 November 2011, there are 195 parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
  25. ^ "First steps to a safer future: Introducing The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Archived from the original on 8 January 2014. Retrieved 7 August 2017. Preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system is the ultimate aim of the UNFCCC.
  26. ^ "Conference of the Parties – Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4" (PDF). UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2011: 3. "(...) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels"
  27. ^ America's Climate Choices. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades.
  28. ^
  29. ^ James Hansen; Makiko Sato; Gary Russell; Pushker Kharecha (September 2013). "Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide". Royal Society Publishing. 371 (2001): 20120294. arXiv:1211.4846. Bibcode:2013RSPTA.37120294H. doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294. PMC 3785813.
  30. ^ Steffen; et al. (2018). "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene". PNAS. doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115.
  31. ^ Stokes, Bruce; Wike, Richard; Carle, Jill (5 November 2015). "Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions". Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. Retrieved 7 August 2017.
  32. ^ Zachos, J.; Pagani, M.; Sloan, L.; Thomas, E.; Billups, K. (2001). "Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present". Science. 292 (5517): 686–693. Bibcode:2001Sci...292..686Z. doi:10.1126/science.1059412. PMID 11326091.
  33. ^ "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5)" (PDF). WGI AR5. IPCC AR5. 2013. p. 5.
  34. ^ "UAH v6.0 TLT data" (trend data at bottom of file). National Space Science and Technology Center. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
  35. ^ "Upper Air Temperature: Decadal Trends". Remote Sensing Systems. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
  36. ^ Jansen et al., Ch. 6, Palaeoclimate, Section 6.6.1.1: What Do Reconstructions Based on Palaeoclimatic Proxies Show?, pp. 466–78 Archived 24 May 2010 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  37. ^ "Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content". NOAA. 2018.
  38. ^ Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S.R. (2013). "3: Observations: Ocean" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 257. Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents and atmosphere account for the remainder of the change in energy.
  39. ^ a b c Kennedy, J.J.; et al. (2010). "How do we know the world has warmed? in: 2. Global Climate, in: State of the Climate in 2009". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91 (7): 26.
  40. ^ Kennedy, C. (10 July 2012). "ClimateWatch Magazine >> State of the Climate: 2011 Global Sea Level". NOAA Climate Services Portal. Archived from the original on 12 May 2013. Retrieved 1 October 2012.
  41. ^ "Summary for Policymakers". Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
  42. ^ "Summary for Policymakers". B. Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment., in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
  43. ^ Rosenzweig, C.; et al. "Ch 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems". Sec 1.3.5.1 Changes in phenology., in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, p. 99
  44. ^ Trenberth et al., Chap 3, Observations: Atmospheric Surface and Climate Change, Executive Summary, p. 237, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  45. ^ Sutton, Rowan T.; Dong, Buwen; Gregory, Jonathan M. (16 January 2007). "Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations". Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (2): L02701. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3402701S. doi:10.1029/2006GL028164. Retrieved 19 September 2007.
  46. ^ "Methane and Black Carbon Impacts on the Arctic: Communicating the Science". Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting.
  47. ^ Polar Opposites: the Arctic and Antarctic
  48. ^ a b TS.3.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Changes in Temperature, Circulation and Related Variables – AR4 WGI Technical Summary
  49. ^ "Watery heatwave cooks the Gulf of Maine". NASA's Earth Observatory. 12 September 2018. We are seeing a major shift in the circulation in the North Atlantic, likely related to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)," said Pershing. "One of the side effects of a weaker AMOC is that the Gulf Stream shifts northward and the cold current flowing into the Gulf of Maine gets weaker. This means we get more warmer water pushing into the Gulf.
  50. ^ Francis Jennifer A (2012). "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes". Geophysical Research Letters. 39. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.6801F. doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.
  51. ^ Howard Perlman (18 Jun 2018). "Ice, Snow, and Glaciers: The Water Cycle". U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey.
  52. ^ "Climate Change: Global Sea Level". In 2017, global mean sea level was 3 inches (77 millimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). It was the sixth consecutive year, and the 22nd out of the last 24 years in which global mean sea level increased relative to the previous year.
  53. ^ "More glaciers in East Antarctica are waking up".
  54. ^ "Ramp-up in Antarctic ice loss speeds sea level rise".
  55. ^ "Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise was mitigated by snowfall".
  56. ^ Florian Sévellec; Sybren S. Drijfhout (2018). "A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend". Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8.
  57. ^ "The next five years will be 'anomalously warm,' scientists predict". The Washington Post. 2018.
  58. ^ England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul; Meehl, Gerald A.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju; Sen Gupta, Alex; McPhaden, Michael J.; Purich, Ariaan; Santoso, Agus (9 February 2014). "Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 4: 222–27. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..222E. doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
  59. ^ Knight, J.; Kenney, J.J.; Folland, C.; Harris, G.; Jones, G.S.; Palmer, M.; Parker, D.; Scaife, A.; Stott, P. (August 2009). "Do Global Temperature Trends Over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions? [in "State of the Climate in 2008"]" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 90 (8): S75–79. Retrieved 13 August 2011.
  60. ^ Global temperature slowdown – not an end to climate change. UK Met Office. Archived from the original on 9 December 2010. Retrieved 20 March 2011.
  61. ^ Did global warming stop in 1998?
  62. ^ Group (28 November 2004). "Forcings (filed under: Glossary)". RealClimate.
  63. ^ "Science Brief 1: The Causes of Global Climate Change" (PDF). Arlington, Virginia: Pew Center on Global Climate Change / Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. September 2006: 2. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 October 2012.
  64. ^ Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui (7 December 2015). "Unforced Surface Air Temperature Variability and Its Contrasting Relationship with the Anomalous TOA Energy Flux at Local and Global Spatial Scales". Journal of Climate. 29 (3): 925–40. Bibcode:2016JCli...29..925B. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0384.1. ISSN 0894-8755.
  65. ^ US NRC 2012, p. 9
  66. ^ Hegerl et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Section 9.4.1.5: The Influence of Other Anthropogenic and Natural Forcings, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, pp. 690–691. "Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings." p. 690
  67. ^ Tyndall, John (1 January 1861). "On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connection of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction". Philosophical Magazine. 4. 22: 169–94, 273–85. Retrieved 8 May 2013.
  68. ^ a b Weart, Spencer (2008). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect". The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
  69. ^ Molina, Francis (March 1912). "Remarkable Weather of 1911: The Effect of Combustion of Coal on Climate -- What Scientists Predict for the Future". Popular Mechanics. pp. 339–342. Retrieved 13 Oct 2018.
  70. ^ "Coal Consumption Affecting Climate". The Braidwood Dispatch and Mining Journal (New South Wales). 17 July 1912. p. 4. Retrieved 13 Oct 2018.
  71. ^ Callendar, G.S. (April 1938). "The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 64 (275): 223–40. Bibcode:1938QJRMS..64..223C. doi:10.1002/qj.49706427503.
  72. ^ The Callendar Effect: the life and work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964) Amer Meteor Soc., Boston. ISBN 978-1-878220-76-9
  73. ^ Le Treut; et al. "Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science". FAQ 1.1., p. 97, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007: "To emit 240 W m–2, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary −19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface."
  74. ^ Blue, Jessica. "What is the Natural Greenhouse Effect?". National Geographic. Archived from the original on 15 April 2016. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  75. ^ Kiehl, J.T.; Trenberth, Kevin E. (1997). "Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78 (2): 197–208. Bibcode:1997BAMS...78..197K. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0477. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 June 2008. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
  76. ^ Schmidt, Gavin (6 April 2005). "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?". RealClimate. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
  77. ^ Russell, Randy (16 May 2007). "The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases". University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Windows to the Universe. Retrieved 27 December 2009.
  78. ^ EPA (2007). "Recent Climate Change: Atmosphere Changes". United States Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Science Program. Archived from the original on 10 May 2009. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
  79. ^ Spahni, Renato; Jérôme Chappellaz; Thomas F. Stocker; Laetitia Loulergue; Gregor Hausammann; Kenji Kawamura; Jacqueline Flückiger; Jakob Schwander; Dominique Raynaud; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; Jean Jouzel (November 2005). "Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores". Science. 310 (5752): 1317–21. Bibcode:2005Sci...310.1317S. doi:10.1126/science.1120132. PMID 16311333.
  80. ^ Siegenthaler, Urs; et al. (November 2005). "Stable Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene" (PDF). Science. 310 (5752): 1313–17. Bibcode:2005Sci...310.1313S. doi:10.1126/science.1120130. PMID 16311332. Retrieved 25 August 2010.
  81. ^ Petit, J. R.; et al. (3 June 1999). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica" (PDF). Nature. 399 (6735): 429–36. Bibcode:1999Natur.399..429P. doi:10.1038/20859. Archived (PDF) from the original on 17 November 2017. Retrieved 27 December 2009.
  82. ^ Lüthi, Dieter; Le Floch, Martine; Bereiter, Bernhard; Blunier, Thomas; Barnola, Jean-Marc; Siegenthaler, Urs; Raynaud, Dominique; Jouzel, Jean; Fischer, Hubertus; Kawamura, Kenji; Stocker, Thomas F. (15 May 2008). "High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present". Nature. 453 (7193): 379–382. Bibcode:2008Natur.453..379L. doi:10.1038/nature06949. PMID 18480821.
  83. ^ Pearson, Paul Nicholas; Palmer, Martin R. (17 August 2000). "Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years". Nature. 406 (6797): 695–99. doi:10.1038/35021000. PMID 10963587.
  84. ^ IPCC, Summary for Policymakers Archived 7 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases ... Archived 18 January 2004 at the Wayback Machine, p. 7, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
  85. ^ IPCC (2007) AR4. Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, section 7.4.5.1. https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch7s7-4-5.html
  86. ^ [1] 'BBC
  87. ^ Le Quéré, C.; Andres, R.J.; Boden, T.; Conway, T.; Houghton, R.A.; House, J.I.; Marland, G.; Peters, G.P.; van der Werf, G.; Ahlström, A.; Andrew, R.M.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J.G.; Ciais, P.; Doney, S.C.; Enright, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Huntingford, C.; Jain, A.K.; Jourdain, C.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R.F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Levis, S.; Levy, P.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M.R.; Schwinger, J.; Sitch, S.; Stocker, B.D.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N. (2 December 2012). "The global carbon budget 1959–2011". Earth System Science Data Discussions. 5 (2): 1107–1157. Bibcode:2012ESSDD...5.1107L. doi:10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012.
  88. ^ Amos, Jonathan (10 May 2013). "Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark". BBC. Retrieved 27 May 2013.
  89. ^ Clark, Pilita (10 May 2013). "CO2 at highest level for millions of years". Financial Times. Retrieved 27 May 2013. (Subscription required (help)).
  90. ^ Schiermeier, Quirin (7 July 2015). "Climate scientists discuss future of their field". Nature.
  91. ^ "'Brutal news': global carbon emissions jump to all-time high in 2018".
  92. ^ Rogner, H.-H., et al., Chap. 1, Introduction, Section 1.3.1.2: Intensities, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
  93. ^ a b NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences. p. 2. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 October 2017. Retrieved 9 November 2010.
  94. ^ World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC. 2010. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 978-0-8213-7987-5. Archived from the original on 5 March 2010. Retrieved 6 April 2010.
  95. ^ Banuri et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section 3.3.3: Patterns of greenhouse gas emissions, and Box 3.1, pp. 92–93 in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.
  96. ^ a b c Liverman, Diana M. (April 2009). "Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere" (PDF). Journal of Historical Geography. 35 (2): 279–96. doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008. Retrieved 10 May 2011.
  97. ^ Fisher et al., Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context, Section 3.1: Emissions scenarios: Issues related to mitigation in the long term context in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
  98. ^ Morita, Chapter 2: Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications, Section 2.5.1.4: Emissions and Other Results of the SRES Scenarios, in IPCC TAR WG3 2001.
  99. ^ Rogner et al., Ch. 1: Introduction, Figure 1.7, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
  100. ^ IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Introduction, paragraph 6, in IPCC TAR WG3 2001.
  101. ^ "Study: Global plant growth surging alongside carbon dioxide". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 20 April 2017. A new study published in the April 6 edition of the journal Nature concludes that as emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels have increased since the start of the 20th century, plants around the world are utilizing 30 percent more carbon dioxide (CO2), spurring plant growth.
  102. ^ Prentence et al., Chapter 3: The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Executive Summary Archived 7 December 2009 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
  103. ^ a b IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change, Figure SPM.2, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  104. ^ "3.2.2 Solar Irradiance". Volume 3: Attribution of Observed Climate Change. Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. EPA's Response to Public Comments. US Environmental Protection Agency. 2009. Archived from the original on 16 June 2011. Retrieved 23 June 2011.
  105. ^ Solomon, S.; D. Qin; M. Manning; Z. Chen; M. Marquis; K.B. Averyt; M. Tignor; H.L. Miller, eds. (2007). "3.4.4.2 Surface Radiation". Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
  106. ^ a b Dr. Amber Jenkins (7 December 2009). "Just 5 questions: Aerosols". NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 February 2019. Using climate models, we estimate that aerosols have masked about 50 percent of the warming that would otherwise have been caused by greenhouse gases trapping heat near the surface of the Earth. Without the presence of these aerosols in the air, our models suggest that the planet would be about 1 °C (1.8 °F) hotter.
  107. ^ Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, G. (2008). "Global and Regional Climate Changes due to Black Carbon" (PDF). Nature Geoscience. 1 (4): 221–27. Bibcode:2008NatGe...1..221R. doi:10.1038/ngeo156.
  108. ^ Wild, M; et al. (2005). "From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface". Science. 308 (2005–05–06): 847–850. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..847W. doi:10.1126/science.1103215. PMID 15879214.
  109. ^ Wild, M., A. Ohmura, and K. Makowski (2007). "Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming". Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (4): L04702. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3404702W. doi:10.1029/2006GL028031.CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link)
  110. ^ Pinker; Zhang, B; Dutton, EG; et al. (2005). "Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface Solar Radiation?". Science. 308 (6 May 2005): 850–854. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..850P. doi:10.1126/science.1103159. PMID 15879215.
  111. ^ Twomey, S. (1 July 1977). "The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds". J. Atmos. Sci. 34 (7): 1149–52. Bibcode:1977JAtS...34.1149T. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0469.
  112. ^ Albrecht, Bruce A. (15 September 1989). "Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness". Science. 245 (4923): 1227–39. Bibcode:1989Sci...245.1227A. doi:10.1126/science.245.4923.1227. PMID 17747885.
  113. ^ IPCC, "Aerosols, their Direct and Indirect Effects", pp. 291–92 in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
  114. ^ Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, G. (2008). "Global and Regional Climate Changes due to Black Carbon" (PDF). Nature Geoscience. 1 (4): 221–27. Bibcode:2008NatGe...1..221R. doi:10.1038/ngeo156.
  115. ^ Documentary Sea Blind (Dutch Television) (in Dutch). RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. 11 October 2016. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  116. ^ M. Sand, T. K. Berntsen, K. von Salzen, M. G. Flanner, J. Langner & D. G. Victor (30 November 2015). "Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers". Nature.CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link)
  117. ^ Ramanathan, V.; et al. (2008). "Report Summary" (PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 July 2011.
  118. ^ Ramanathan, V.; Chung, C.; Kim, D.; Bettge, T.; Buja, L.; Kiehl, J.T.; Washington, W.M.; Fu, Q.; Sikka, D.R.; Wild, M. (2005). "Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle" (Full free text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 102 (15): 5326–33. Bibcode:2005PNAS..102.5326R. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102. PMC 552786. PMID 15749818.
  119. ^ Ramanathan, V.; et al. (2008). "Part III: Global and Future Implications" (PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 July 2011.
  120. ^ US NRC 2008, p. 6
  121. ^ Hegerl, et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Frequently Asked Question 9.2: Can the Warming of the 20th century be Explained by Natural Variability?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  122. ^ Schmidt, Gavin A.; et al. (March 2014). "Reconciling warming trends". Nature Geoscience. 7 (3): 158–160. Bibcode:2014NatGe...7..158S. doi:10.1038/ngeo2105.
  123. ^ Fyfe, John C.; et al. (March 2016). "Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 6 (3): 224–228. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..224F. doi:10.1038/nclimate2938.
  124. ^ Simmon, R.; D. Herring (November 2009). "Notes for slide number 7, titled "Satellite evidence also suggests greenhouse gas warming", in presentation, "Human contributions to global climate change"". U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Services. Archived from the original on 3 July 2011. Retrieved 23 June 2011.
  125. ^ Hegerl et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Frequently Asked Question 9.2: Can the Warming of the 20th century be Explained by Natural Variability?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  126. ^ Randel, William J.; Shine, Keith P.; Austin, John; et al. (2009). "An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends". Journal of Geophysical Research. 114 (D2): D02107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11402107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD010421.
  127. ^ USGCRP 2009, p. 20
  128. ^ Hegerl, et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Executive Summary, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  129. ^ Do Variations in the Solar Cycle Affect Our Climate System?
  130. ^ R.S. Bradley; K.R. Briffa; J. Cole; M.K. Hughes; T.J. Osborn (2003). "The climate of the last millennium". In K.D. Alverson; R.S. Bradley; T.F. Pederson. Paleoclimate, global change and the future (PDF). Springer. pp. 105–41. ISBN 3-540-42402-4.
  131. ^ "Arctic Warming Overtakes 2,000 Years of Natural Cooling". Brown University. 26 January 2017. Retrieved 16 February 2019.
  132. ^ Kaufman, D.S.; Schneider, D.P.; McKay, N.P.; Ammann, C.M.; Bradley, R.S.; Briffa, K.R.; Miller, G.H.; Otto-Bliesner, B.L.; Overpeck, J.T.; Vinther, B.M.; Abbott, M.; Axford, M.; Bird, Y.; Birks, B.; Bjune, H.J.B.; Briner, A.E.; Cook, J.; Chipman, T.; Francus, M.; Gajewski, P.; Geirsdottir, K.; Hu, A.; Kutchko, F.S.; Lamoureux, B.; Loso, S.; MacDonald, M.; Peros, G.; Porinchu, M.; Schiff, D.; Seppa, C.; Seppa, H.; Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members (2009). "Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling" (PDF). Science. 325 (5945): 1236–39. Bibcode:2009Sci...325.1236K. doi:10.1126/science.1173983. PMID 19729653.
  133. ^ "Arctic Warming Overtakes 2,000 Years of Natural Cooling". UCAR. 3 September 2009. Archived from the original on 27 April 2011. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
  134. ^ Bello, David (4 September 2009). "Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling". Scientific American. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
  135. ^ Mann, Michael E.; Zhang, Zhihua; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Miller, Sonya K.; Rutherford, Scott; Ni, Fenbiao (9 September 2008). "Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (36): 13252–57. Bibcode:2008PNAS..10513252M. doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105. PMC 2527990. PMID 18765811.
  136. ^ Berger, André; Loutre, Marie-France (23 August 2002). "CLIMATE: An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?" (PDF). Science. 297 (5585): 1287–88. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
  137. ^ Masson-Delmotte V. M.; et al. (2013). "Information from paleoclimate archives" (PDF). In Stocker, T.F.; et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. pp. 383–464. ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0.
  138. ^ "Thermodynamics: Albedo". NSIDC.
  139. ^ "The study of Earth as an integrated system". Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology. 2013.
  140. ^ Lindsey, R. (14 January 2009). "Earth's Energy Budget, in: Climate and Earth's Energy Budget: Feature Articles". Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office, located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center: 4. The amount of heat a surface radiates is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature (in Kelvin).
  141. ^ Eric W. Wolff; John G. Shepherd; Emily Shuckburgh; Andrew J. Watson (13 November 2015). "Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system: introduction". Philos Trans a Math Phys Eng Sci. 373 (2054): 20140428. doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0428. PMC 4608041. PMID 26438277. the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth’s climate (over muiti-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway.
  142. ^ "Arctic amplification". NASA. 2013.
  143. ^ Ellen Gray (20 August 2018). "Unexpected future boost of methane possible from Arctic permafrost". NASA's Earth Science News Team.
  144. ^ Riebeek, H. (16 June 2011). "The Carbon Cycle: Feature Articles: Effects of Changing the Carbon Cycle". Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. So far, land plants and the ocean have taken up about 55 percent of the extra carbon people have put into the atmosphere while about 45 percent has stayed in the atmosphere. Eventually, the land and oceans will take up most of the extra carbon dioxide, but as much as 20 percent may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.
  145. ^ "Study: Global plant growth surging alongside carbon dioxide". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 20 April 2017. A new study published in the April 6 edition of the journal Nature concludes that as emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels have increased since the start of the 20th century, plants around the world are utilizing 30 percent more carbon dioxide (CO2), spurring plant growth.
  146. ^ Annie Sneed (23 January 2018). "Ask the Experts: Does Rising CO2 Benefit Plants?". Scientific American. Climate change’s negative effects on plants will likely outweigh any gains from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
  147. ^ "How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change". Retrieved 24 February 2019. increasing CO2 modifies the climate which in turn impacts ocean circulation and therefore ocean CO2 uptake. Changes in marine ecosystems resulting from rising CO2 and/or changing climate can also result in changes in air-sea CO2 exchange. These feedbacks can change the role of the oceans in taking up atmospheric CO2 making it very difficult to predict how the ocean carbon cycle will operate in the future.
  148. ^ Melillo, J.M.; Frey, S.D.; DeAngelis, K.M.; Werner, W.J.; Bernard, M.J.; Bowles, F.P.; Pold, G.; Knorr, M.A.; Grandy, A.S. (6 October 2017). "Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world". Science. 358 (6359): 101–105. Bibcode:2017Sci...358..101M. doi:10.1126/science.aan2874. PMID 28983050. Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and is comparable in magnitude to the cumulative carbon losses to the atmosphere due to human-driven land use change during the past two centuries.
  149. ^ Witze, Alexandra (11 July 2016). "Clouds get high on climate change". Nature. doi:10.1038/nature.2016.20230. By 2009, the team found that there were fewer clouds over the mid-latitudes than there had been in 1983. That finding meshes with climate predictions that dry zones will expand out of the subtropics and push storms towards the poles. The team also found that cloud tops rose higher in the atmosphere by the end of the 2000s, again as predicted for a warming atmosphere.
  150. ^ Tapio Schneider; Colleen M. Kaul; Kyle G. Pressel (25 February 2019). "Clouds' cooling effect could vanish in a warmer world". Nature Geoscience. nature. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00685-x. Retrieved 26 February 2019. High concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide can result in the dispersal of cloud banks that reflect about 30% of Earth’s sunlight.
  151. ^ Sheridan, Kerry (2018-08-06). "Earth risks tipping into 'hothouse' state: study". Phys.org. Retrieved 2018-08-08. Hothouse Earth is likely to be uncontrollable and dangerous to many ... global average temperatures would exceed those of any interglacial period—meaning warmer eras that come in between Ice Ages—of the past 1.2 million years.
  152. ^ Will Steffen; Johan Rockström; Katherine Richardson; Timothy M. Lenton; Carl Folke; Diana Liverman; Colin P. Summerhayes; Anthony D. Barnosky; Sarah E. Cornell; Michel Crucifix; Jonathan F. Donges; Ingo Fetzer; Steven J. Lade; Marten Scheffer; Ricarda Winkelmann; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (14 August 2018). "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. PNAS. 115 (33): 8252–8259. doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115. PMID 30082409. A Hothouse Earth trajectory would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs (and all of the benefits that they provide for societies) by the end of this century or earlier.
  153. ^ "Patterns of greenhouse warming" (PDF). GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights. Princeton, New Jersey: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). 1 (6). January 2007., revision 2 February 2007, 8:50.08 AM.
  154. ^ "NOAA GFDL Climate Research Highlights Image Gallery: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming". NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). 9 October 2012.
  155. ^ IPCC, Glossary A–D: "Climate Model", in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  156. ^ a b c d "Q&A: How do climate models work?". Carbon Brief. 2018-01-15. Retrieved 2019-03-02.
  157. ^ Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: SPM 2.1 Key drivers of future climate (PDF) (Report).
  158. ^ IPCC 2013: Technical Summary (PDF) (Report). the uncertainty is now estimated to be smaller than with the AR4 method for long-term climate change, because the carbon cycle–climate feedbacks are not relevant for the concentration-driven RCP projections
  159. ^ Randall et al., Chapter 8, Climate Models and Their Evaluation, Sec. FAQ 8.1 in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  160. ^ Stroeve, J.; et al. (2007). "Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast". Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9): L09501. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3409501S. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
  161. ^ Liepert, Beate G.; Previdi, Michael (2009). "Do Models and Observations Disagree on the Rainfall Response to Global Warming?". Journal of Climate. 22 (11): 3156–66. Bibcode:2009JCli...22.3156L. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2472.1. Recently analyzed satellite-derived global precipitation datasets from 1987 to 2006 indicate an increase in global-mean precipitation of 1.1%–1.4% decade−1. This trend corresponds to a hydrological sensitivity (HS) of 7% K−1 of global warming, which is close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate expected from the increase in saturation water vapor pressure with temperature. Analysis of two available global ocean evaporation datasets confirms this observed intensification of the atmospheric water cycle. The observed hydrological sensitivity over the past 20-yr period is higher by a factor of 5 than the average HS of 1.4% K−1 simulated in state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
  162. ^ Rahmstorf, Stefan; Cazenave, Anny; Church, John A.; Hansen, James E.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Parker, David E.; Somerville, Richard C. J. (4 May 2007). "Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections" (PDF). Science. 316 (5825): 709. Bibcode:2007Sci...316..709R. doi:10.1126/science.1136843. PMID 17272686.
  163. ^ Mitchum, G. T.; Masters, D.; Hamlington, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T.; Beckley, B. D.; Nerem, R. S. (2018). "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 115 (9): 2022–2025. doi:10.1073/pnas.1717312115. ISSN 0027-8424. PMID 29440401.
  164. ^ "Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements". US National Climate Assessment. 2017.
  165. ^ January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
  166. ^ "Global Warming and Polar Bears - National Wildlife Federation". Retrieved 16 October 2017. As climate change melts sea ice, the U.S. Geological Survey projects that two thirds of polar bears will disappear by 2050.
  167. ^ Amstrup, S. C.; Marcot, B. G.; Douglas, D. C. (2013). "A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears" (PDF). Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications. Geophysical Monograph Series 180. pp. 213–268. doi:10.1029/180GM14.
  168. ^ Zhang, Jinlun (11 June 2008). "What drove the dramatic arctic sea ice retreat during summer 2007?". Geophysical Research Letters. 35: 1–5. Bibcode:2008GeoRL..3511505Z. doi:10.1029/2008gl034005.
  169. ^ Meehl, G.A.; et al. "Ch 10: Global Climate Projections". Sec 10.3.3.1 Changes in Sea Ice Cover., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, p. 770
  170. ^ Wang, M.; Overland, J. E. (2009). "A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?". Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (7). Bibcode:2009GeoRL..36.7502W. doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. Retrieved 2 May 2011.
  171. ^ "Arctic sea ice 2012". Exeter, UK: Met Office.
  172. ^ Watson, Christopher S.; White, Neil J.; Church, John A.; King, Matt A.; Burgette, Reed J.; Legresy, Benoit (11 May 2015). "Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 5: 565–68. Bibcode:2015NatCC...5..565W. doi:10.1038/nclimate2635.
  173. ^ Church, John; Clark, Peter. "Chapter 13: Sea Level Change – Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment" (PDF). IPCC Working Group I. Retrieved 21 January 2015.
  174. ^ Bell, Brian (31 August 2015). "UCI study finds dramatic increase in concurrent droughts, heat waves". University of California, Irvine.
  175. ^ Ogburn, Stephanie Paige (29 April 2014). "Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme". Scientific American.
  176. ^ "D. Future Climate Extremes, Impacts, and Disaster Losses, in: Summary for policymakers". Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation., in IPCC SREX 2012, pp. 9–13
  177. ^ IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Section 1: Observed changes in climate and their effects, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  178. ^ Fischlin, et al., Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods and Services, Executive Summary, p. 213, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Executive summary not present in on-line text; see pdf.
  179. ^ a b c Ocean Acidification, in: Ch. 2. Our Changing Climate, in NCADAC 2013, pp. 69–70
  180. ^ Deutsch; et al. (2011). "Climate-Forced Variability of Ocean Hypoxia" (PDF). Science. 333: 336–39. Bibcode:2011Sci...333..336D. doi:10.1126/science.1202422. PMID 21659566.
  181. ^ *UNEP 2010
  182. ^ Sarah Kaplan (2018). "Climate change could render many of Earth's ecosystems unrecognizable". The Washington Post.
  183. ^ a b *Summary, pp. 14–19, in National Research Council 2011
  184. ^ Bill McGuire (2010). "Climate forcing of geological and geomorphological hazards". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Royal Society. 368: 2311–15. Bibcode:2010RSPTA.368.2311M. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0077.
  185. ^ Smith, J.B.; et al. "Ch. 19. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis". Sec 19.6. Extreme and Irreversible Effects., in IPCC TAR WG2 2001
  186. ^ Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal (17 March 2009). "Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'reasons for concern'". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106 (11): 4133–37. Bibcode:2009PNAS..106.4133S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106. PMC 2648893. PMID 19251662.
  187. ^ Clark, P.U.; et al. (December 2008). "Executive Summary". Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey., pp. 1–7. Report website Archived 4 May 2013 at the Wayback Machine
  188. ^ "Siberian permafrost thaw warning sparked by cave data". BBC. 22 February 2013. Retrieved 24 February 2013.
  189. ^ "Shutdown Of Circulation Pattern Could Be Disastrous, Researchers Say". ScienceDaily. 20 December 2004. Archived from the original on 2005-01-13.
  190. ^ Link, Peter Michael; Tol, Richard S.J. (September 2004). "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND" (PDF). Portuguese Economic Journal (PDF). 3 (2): 99–114. doi:10.1007/s10258-004-0033-z.
  191. ^ "Weather Facts: North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream)". Weather Online UK.
  192. ^ Bischof, Barbie; Mariano, Arthur J.; Ryan, Edward H. (2003). "Ocean Surface Currents: The North Atlantic Drift Current". Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami.
  193. ^ Schneider et al., Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change, Section 19.3.4: Ecosystems and biodiversity, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007.
  194. ^ "Climate change linked to potential population decline in bees". ScienceDaily. 2018.
  195. ^ "Carbon dioxide is 'driving fish crazy'". ScienceDaily. 2012.
  196. ^ FAQ 7 and 8, in: Volume-wide Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 2–3, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  197. ^ Oppenheimer, M., et al., Section 19.6.3: Updating Reasons for Concern, in: Chapter 19: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 39–46, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  198. ^ Field, C., et al., B-3: Regional Risks and Potential for Adaptation, in: Technical Summary (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 27–30, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  199. ^ Oppenheimer, M., et al., Section 19.6.3: Updating Reasons for Concern, in: Chapter 19: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 42–43, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  200. ^ Nuccitelli, Dana (26 January 2015). "Climate change could impact the poor much more than previously thought". The Guardian.
  201. ^ IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. 3.3.3 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions. Synthesis report.
  202. ^ Mimura, N.; et al. (2007). "Executive summary". In Parry, M.L.; et al. Chapter 16: Small Islands. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 0-521-88010-6. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
  203. ^ Park, Susin (May 2011). "Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States" (PDF). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-05-02. Retrieved 13 April 2012.
  204. ^ Mooney, Chris (22 October 2014). "There's a surprisingly strong link between climate change and violence". The Washington Post.
  205. ^ "Crime, weather, and climate change". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 67 (3): 274–302. 2014-05-01. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008. ISSN 0095-0696.
  206. ^ Marshall, Burke,; M, Hsiang, Solomon; Edward, Miguel, (2014-10-16). "Climate and Conflict". NBER.
  207. ^ "Climate Change Will Cause Rape and Murder and Assault and Robbery and Larceny and Make People Steal Your Car | National Review". National Review. 2014-02-27. Retrieved 2018-11-17.
  208. ^ Hope, Chris; Schaefer, Kevin (21 September 2015). "Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost" (PDF). Nature. 6: 56–59. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6...56H. doi:10.1038/nclimate2807.
  209. ^ Porter, J.R., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 7: Food security and food production systems (archived 8 July 2014), p. 3, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  210. ^ Reference temperature period converted from late-20th century to pre-industrial times (approximated in the source as 1850–1900).* Assessment Box SPM-1 (p. 14) and B-2. Sectoral Risks and Potential for Adaptation: Food security and food production systems (p. 18), in: Summary for Policymakers (archived 8 July 2014), in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  211. ^ R. Porter, John; Xie, Liyong (2014). Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), WGII, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Chapter 7: Food Security and Food Production Systems (PDF). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 491–492. Retrieved 29 July 2018.
  212. ^ a b c Cramer, Wolfgang, et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 18: Detection and attribution of observed impacts (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 3–4, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  213. ^ Smith, K.R., et al., FAQ 11.2, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), p. 37, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  214. ^ a b Costello, Anthony; Abbas, Mustafa; Allen, Adriana; Ball, Sarah; Bell, Sarah; Bellamy, Richard; Friel, Sharon; Groce, Nora; Johnson, Anne; Kett, Maria; Lee, Maria; Levy, Caren; Maslin, Mark; McCoy, David; McGuire, Bill; Montgomery, Hugh; Napier, David; Pagel, Christina; Patel, Jinesh; de Oliveira, Jose Antonio Puppim; Redclift, Nanneke; Rees, Hannah; Rogger, Daniel; Scott, Joanne; Stephenson, Judith; Twigg, John; Wolff, Jonathan; Patterson, Craig (May 2009). "Managing the health effects of climate change". The Lancet. 373 (9676): 1693–733. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1.
  215. ^ a b Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Agnolucci, Paolo; Blackstock, Jason; Byass, Peter; Cai, Wenjia; Chaytor, Sarah; Colbourn, Tim; Collins, Mat; Cooper, Adam; Cox, Peter M; Depledge, Joanna; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Galaz, Victor; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Grubb, Michael; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Hunter, Alasdair; Jiang, Xujia; Li, Moxuan; Kelman, Ilan; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Pye, Steve; Quinn, Tara; Svensdotter, My; Venevsky, Sergey; Warner, Koko; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony (November 2015). "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health". The Lancet. 386 (10006): 1861–914. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6. PMID 26111439. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
  216. ^ Smith, K.R., et al., Section 11.4: Direct Impacts of Climate and Weather on Health, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 10–13, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  217. ^ Smith, K.R., et al., Section 11.6.1. Nutrition, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), pp. 10–13, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
  218. ^ "Global warming risk: Rising temperatures from climate change linked to rise in suicides". USA Today. 2018.
  219. ^ Core Writing Team; et al., eds. (2007d). "3.3.3 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions". Synthesis report. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
  220. ^ a b c  This article incorporates public domain material from the US Environmental Protection Agency document: International Impacts & Adaptation: Climate Change: US EPA, US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), 14 June 2012
  221. ^ Steven C. Sherwood; Matthew Huber (2010), "An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress", PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107
  222. ^ Abellan Matamoros, Cristina (13 February 2019). "Watch: Polar bear in Russian archipelago peeks inside a house". euronews.com. Euronews. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
  223. ^ Stambaugh, Alex (12 February 2019). "Polar bear invasion: Parents scared to send children to school in remote Russian archipelago". edition.cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved 15 February 2019.
  224. ^ PBL Netherlands Environment Agency (15 June 2012). "Figure 6.14, in: Chapter 6: The energy and climate challenge". In van Vuuren, D.; M. Kok. Roads from Rio+20 (PDF). ISBN 978-90-78645-98-6., p. 177, Report no: 500062001. Report website.
  225. ^ Mitigation, in USGCRP 2015
  226. ^ a b c d IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Section 4: Adaptation and mitigation options, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  227. ^ a b Edenhofer, O., et al., Table TS.3, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 68
  228. ^ Nuccitelli, Dana (31 August 2015). "Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars". The Guardian.
  229. ^ Clarke, Leon, et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 418
  230. ^ a b SPM4.1: Long-term mitigation pathways, in: Summary for Policymakers (archived 27 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, pp. 10–13
  231. ^ Edenhofer, O., et al., TS.3.1.2: Short- and long-term requirements of mitigation pathways, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, pp. 55–56
  232. ^ Edenhofer, O., et al., TS.3.1.3: Costs, investments and burden sharing, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 58
  233. ^ "Global cyclists say NO to carbon – opt for CDM", The World Bank, 27 October 2015
  234. ^ Smit et al., Chapter 18: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity, Section 18.2.3: Adaptation Types and Forms, in IPCC TAR WG2 2001.
  235. ^ "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change" (Press release). U.S. Global Change Research Program. 16 June 2009. Retrieved 14 January 2016.
  236. ^ Cole, Daniel A. "Climate Change, Adaptation, and Development", 26 UCLA J. ENVTL. L. & POL'Y 1, 3 (2008)
  237. ^ Schneider, S.H.; Semenov, S.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I.; Magadza, C.H.D.; Oppenheimer, M.; Pittock, A.B.; Rahman, A.; Smith, J.B.; Suarez, A.; Yamin, F. (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; Hanson, C.E., eds. Executive summary. In (book chapter): Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-04-06.
  238. ^ Lane, Lee; Caldeira, Ken; Chatfield, Robert; Langhoff, Stephanie (April 2007). "Workshop on managing solar radiation" (PDF). NASA. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 May 2009. Retrieved 23 May 2009.
  239. ^ "Stop emitting CO2 or geoengineering could be our only hope" (Press release). The Royal Society. 28 August 2009. Archived from the original on 24 June 2011. Retrieved 14 June 2011.
  240. ^ Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas (January 2014). "Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario". Nature Communications. 5: 3304. Bibcode:2014NatCo...5E3304K. doi:10.1038/ncomms4304. PMC 3948393. PMID 24569320. Retrieved 31 March 2014. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.
  241. ^ Quoted in IPCC SAR SYR 1996, "Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change", paragraph 4.1, p. 8 (pdf p. 18.)
  242. ^ Morgan, M. Granger; Dowlatabadi, Hadi; Henrion, Max; Keith, David; Lempert, Robert; McBride, Sandra; Small, Mitchell; Wilbanks, Thomas (2009). "Non-Technical Summary: BOX NT.1 Summary of Climate Change Basics". Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (PDF). Washington, D.C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. p. 11. Retrieved 1 June 2011.
  243. ^ "Essential Background". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. n.d. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
  244. ^ "Full text of the Convention, Article 2". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. n.d. Archived from the original on 28 October 2005. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
  245. ^ Rogner et al., Chapter 1: Introduction, Executive summary, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
  246. ^ Raupach, Michael R.; Marland, Gregg; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Canadell, Josep G.; Klepper, Gernot; Field, Christopher B. (12 June 2007). "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions" (Free full text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 104 (24): 10288–93. Bibcode:2007PNAS..10410288R. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 1876160. PMID 17519334.
  247. ^ a b Dessai, Suraje (December 2001). "The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?" (PDF). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Tyndall Centre. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 June 2012. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
  248. ^ Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (PDF). World Economics. 4 (3): 144–45. Retrieved 25 March 2010.
  249. ^ a b "Kyoto Protocol". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. n.d. Retrieved 21 May 2011.
  250. ^ Müller, Benito (February 2010). Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49 (PDF). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. p. i. ISBN 978-1-907555-04-6. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 July 2017. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
  251. ^ Rudd, Kevin (25 May 2015). "Paris Can't Be Another Copenhagen". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 3 February 2018. Retrieved 26 May 2015.
  252. ^ "Technical summary". The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C? A preliminary assessment (advance copy) (PDF). United Nations Environment Programme. November 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 February 2017. Retrieved 11 May 2011. This publication is also available in e-book format Archived 25 November 2010 at the Library of Congress Web Archives
  253. ^ "Decision 2/CP. 15 Copenhagen Accord. In: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 30 March 2010. p. 5. Retrieved 17 May 2010.
  254. ^ "Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (PDF). Presidencia De La República, México. 11 December 2010. p. 2. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
  255. ^ "Summary for Policymakers". Detection and Attribution of Climate Change. IPCC. «It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century» (page 15) and «In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: (...) extremely likely: 95–100%» (page 2)., in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
  256. ^ a b Royal Society (13 April 2005). "Letter from The Royal Society: A Guide to Facts and Fictions About Climate Change: Misleading arguments: Many scientists do not think that climate change is a problem. Some scientists have signed petitions stating that climate change is not a problem. ... There are some individuals and organisations, some of which are funded by the US oil industry, that seek to undermine the science of climate change and the work of the IPCC. They appear motivated in their arguments by opposition to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, which seek urgent action to tackle climate change through a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.". Economic Affairs – Written Evidence. The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee. UK Parliament. Retrieved 9 July 2011. This document is also available in PDF format
  257. ^ Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil); Royal Society of Canada; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Académie des Sciences (France); Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany); Indian National Science Academy; Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy); Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias; Russian Academy of Sciences; Academy of Science of South Africa; Royal Society (United Kingdom); National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (May 2009). "G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future" (PDF). The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
  258. ^ Davenport, Carol (October 7, 2018). "Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040". The New York Times. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
  259. ^ Cook, John; et al. (13 April 2016). "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002. Retrieved 21 July 2016.
  260. ^ DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (2007). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. p. 68. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0.
  261. ^ Brigham-Grette, Julie; et al. (September 2006). "Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos. 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008. Retrieved 23 January 2007. The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
  262. ^ Ripple, William J.; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M.; Galetti, Mauro; Alamgir, Mohammed; Crist, Eileen; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I.; Laurance, William F. (13 November 2017). "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice". BioScience. doi:10.1093/biosci/bix125.
  263. ^ Perkins, Sid (11 July 2017). "The best way to reduce your carbon footprint is one the government isn't telling you about". Science. Retrieved 29 November 2017.
  264. ^ Boykoff, Maxwell T.; Boykoff, Jules M. (July 2004). "Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press" (PDF). Global Environmental Change Part A. 14 (2): 125–36. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001.
  265. ^ Oreskes, Naomi; Conway, Erik (2010-05-25). Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (first ed.). Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 978-1-59691-610-4.
  266. ^ McCright, Aaron M.; Dunlap, Riley E. (November 2000). "Challenging Global Warming as a Social Problem: An Analysis of the Conservative Movement's Counter-Claims" (PDF). Social Problems. 47 (4): 499–522. JSTOR 3097132.
  267. ^ Weart, S. (July 2009). "The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: After 1988". American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 5 May 2010.SEPP (n.d.). "Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change". Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP). Archived from the original on 11 May 2008. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
  268. ^ Begley, Sharon (13 August 2007). "The Truth About Denial". Newsweek. Retrieved 13 August 2007.
  269. ^ Adams, David (20 September 2006). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 9 August 2007.
  270. ^ "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics". MSNBC. 12 January 2007. Archived from the original on 18 June 2007. Retrieved 2 May 2007.
  271. ^ Sandell, Clayton (3 January 2007). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC. Retrieved 27 April 2007.
  272. ^ "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics". USA Today. Reuters. 18 May 2007. Retrieved 21 January 2010.
  273. ^ "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards" (Press release). Ceres. 13 May 2004. Retrieved 4 March 2010.
  274. ^ "Oil Company Positions on the Reality and Risk of Climate Change". Environmental Studies, University of Oshkosh – Wisconsin. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
  275. ^ Weart, S. (February 2015). "The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: after 1988". American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  276. ^ "Environment". Gallup. 2015. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  277. ^ Peter Newell (December 14, 2006). Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 109. Cambridge University Press. p. 80. Bibcode:2001AgFM..109...75B. doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00246-5. ISBN 978-0-521-02123-4. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  278. ^ "Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz On Studying, Communicating with American Public". Yale Climate Connections. 2010.
  279. ^ Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto; Aguilar, Elliot (28 April 2006). "Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th-century climate change" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research. 111 (D8): D08302. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11108302S. doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.
  280. ^ "Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change, chapter 2 You Scientists Win 1985". The New York Times. 1 August 2018.
  281. ^ Pugliese, Anita (20 April 2011). "Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat". Gallup. Retrieved 22 April 2011.
  282. ^ Ray, Julie; Anita Pugliese (22 April 2011). "Worldwide, Blame for Climate Change Falls on Humans". Gallup.Com. Retrieved 3 May 2011. People nearly everywhere, including majorities in developed Asia and Latin America, are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities rather than natural causes. The U.S. is the exception, with nearly half (47%) – and the largest percentage in the world – attributing global warming to natural causes.
  283. ^ "Climate Change and Financial Instability Seen as Top Global Threats". Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. 24 June 2013.
  284. ^ a b Weart, Spencer R. (February 2014). "The Discovery of Global Warming; The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)". American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 12 May 2015., and footnote 27
  285. ^ a b Weart, Spencer R. (February 2014). "The Discovery of Global Warming; The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988". American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
  286. ^ a b c Erik Conway. "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change", NASA, 5 December 2008
  287. ^ U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2" 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44.

References

External links

Research

Educational