Peak food

See also: Food Security

The term peak food refers to a time when food yields will be unable to supply the demand for the globe and prices theoretically sky rocket to unimaginable heights. The world is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global grain stocks to their lowest level in 30 years . Exponentially rising populations, global warming (the current climate change), water shortages, and growing costs of fossil fuels including petroleum based fertilizers will lead to a global food crisis in the near future. Compounding this problem is the fact that there is little arable land left on our planet for farming. Even if the long-promised biotech advances in drought, cold, and disease-resistance come about in the next decade, they will boost yields little more than five percent globally due to this limited amount of new farmable land .

Food production

The current food production system including food subsidies on crops like corn is designed to produce profits not produce food or nutrition for people . This situation is likely to worsen with climate change. With large droughts, floods, and famines coming in the future the food security of the world will be under great scrutiny.

Energy

Peak oil likely means peak food. About 17% of US energy use goes into agriculture. Food usually travels a long way to get to the place it is sold to consumers, and it was most likely grown with fossil-fuel intensive fertilizers and pesticides. As of 1994, it took 400 gallons of oil and equivalents to feed each US citizen, and that number has probably gone up (3).

Another problem the world is currently facing is the increased production of biofuels made from crops. This is especially true in North America where corn ethanol removes a large percentage of the food supply for use as fuel.

Current depletion

The clearest fact that we will soon be experiencing a food crisis is that over the past decade grain carryover stocks or, the amount left over at the beginning of the next harvest, has continually been decreasing. Historically we have seen that if the carryover stocks are less than 60 days of consumption prices have been known to as much as double.

Alternatives

There is hope however from the “think globally, eat locally” movement. The 100-mile diet, where people obtain their food from within a 100-mile radius of their homes, makes good sense for most of the world. The whole fabric of the food production system needs to change, or hunger and malnutrition will only get much worse.

References

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