Web Bot

Web Bot, or the Web Bot Project, refers to an Internet bot software program that is claimed to be able to predict future events by tracking keywords entered on the Internet. It was created in 1997, originally to predict stock market trends. The creator of the Web Bot Project, Clif High, along with his associate George Ure, who call themselves "The Time Monks", keep the technology and algorithms largely secret and sell the predictions via the website.

Methodology

Internet bots monitor news articles, blogs, forums, and other forms of Internet chatter. Words in the lexicon are assigned numeric values for emotional quantifiers such as duration, impact, immediacy, intensity, and others. The lexicon is dynamic, and changes according to shifts in emotional tension, and how humans communicate those changes using the Internet. As of 2008, there were about 300,000 keywords in the lexicon, along with emotional context indicators which are fed into a computer-generated modelspace. They then use a technique called Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis (ALTA) developed by Clif High to generate a predictive report from a fully-populated modelspace. These predictive reports are known as ALTA or Web Bot reports. The 2010/2011 report underwent a formatting change and is titled The Shape of Things to Come - Volume Zero.

Predictive theory

Ure and High hypothesize that changes in language precede changes in behavior. This is the basis for attempting to use ALTA as a form of future viewing. The authors have repeatedly asserted in interviews that the predictions made in the ALTA report have an inherent bias toward events of a negative nature and tend to be framed in catastrophic terms. However, the reports have also indicated positive events such as the development of new technology and increased social awareness.

Predictions

Claimed hits

The Web Bot is claimed to have predicted several events prior to them occurring, most notably the September 11 attacks and the 2001 Northeastern United States blackout. However, many believe the predictions are vague and, at best, pseudoscientific.

• American Airlines Flight 587
• Space Shuttle Columbia disaster - In January 2003 the web bots were going on and on about a "maritime disaster". However, in that same year, the MV Mitali, a double decked ferry, was capsized by collision with a cargo vassel in Bangladesh, with at least 130 people confirmed dead on April 2003. The Fu Shan Hai, a Chinese bulk carrier, sank after a collision on 31 May 2003. The RMS Mülheim, a German cargo ship run ashore on on 22 March 2003. Nevertheless, the Web Bot owners zeroed in on a non-maritime event as their "prediction".
• Northeast Blackout of 2003
• 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake
• Hurricane Katrina and its devastation
• Dick Cheney hunting incident

Misses

• A massive earthquake in Vancouver, Canada and the Pacific Northwest was predicted to occur on 12 December 2008.
• A buildup of tension was to begin July 11, but nothing noticeable happened to cause such buildup.
• From July 11, 2010 onward, civil unrest will take place, possibly driven by food prices skyrocketing, and the devaluation of the dollar. (Note that the 2010–2011 Middle East and North Africa protests occurred six months later.)
• November 5–14, 2010 - The web bot warns of a big tipping point, possibly a stock market crash or financial issue of some sort.
• An October 2010 release of a data set analysis (The Shape of Things to Come Volume 0, Issue 8) forecast a major event termed the Tipping Point to occur between 8 November and 11 November. The analysis was later modified to extend the time frame for the Tipping Point to occur between 5 November and 14 November.
• A missile launch that would herald the start of World War III was predicted to happen on the 14th of December in an interview.

In Progress

• A complete collapse of the US dollar beginning in 2009.
• The US dollar completely collapses, or Israel bombs Iran. In reaction to this crisis, administration of U.S. President Barack Obama will be thrown into major chaos ten days later.
• After March 2011, the revolution wave will settle down into a period of reformation particularly in the troubled regions of the world.

Future predictions

• Major catastrophe in 2012 - The Web Bot has gained most of its notoriety for contributing to the 2012 phenomenon by predicting that a cataclysm will devastate the planet in the year 2012, possibly a reversing of Earth's magnetic poles or a small series of nuclear attacks leading up to a major attack during the year. The prediction does not call for a complete end of the world.

The following comes from the Web Bot Project Blogspot report on a radio interview with High and Ure:

• A second depression, triggered by mass layoffs, bankruptcies, and the popping of the derivatives bubble, will see people a lot of people dying

• A "data gap" has been found in 2012 running through May 2013. One explanation is that "our civilization gets knocked back to a pre-electronic state," such as brought about by devastating solar activity.
• A new benign form of capitalism will emerge during 2017-2020.

Reception

The History Channel has discussed Web Bot in its special Doomsday 2012 and on other shows like Nostradamus Effect which feature predictions about the end of the world. A Globe and Mail journalist noted that "What interests me more than the bot's accuracy (of which I'm skeptical), is the relentless negativity of its projections. According to the bot, the future is always bleak and steadily worsening."

Tom Chivers in the Daily Telegraph notes three criticisms of the project: "the internet might plausibly reveal group knowledge about the stock market or, conceivably, terror attacks [but] it would be no more capable of predicting a natural disaster than would a Google search, ... the predictions are so vague as to be meaningless, [and] the prophecies become self-distorting."

See also

• List of memory biases
• List of cognitive biases
• Postdiction