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==Criminal conviction==
==Criminal conviction==
On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for having conspired with employees of [[Republic New York]] involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 in connection with the fraud. Republic New York agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 to pay $606 million in a civil settlement.<ref name=NYT1>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/business/republic-new-york-pleads-guilty-to-securities-fraud.html |title=Republic New York Pleads Guilty to Securities Fraud |first=Kenneth N |last=Gilpin |date=December 18, 2001 |publisher=The New York Times |accessdate=September 30, 2012}}</ref> Armstrong represented himself and was excluded from some proceedings, leading the Associated Press to question whether Armstrong could get a fair trial.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2000/Jailed-Market-Guru-To-Defend-Himself/id-54251508fc681b7fc9ba002bdba88cd8 |title=Jailed Market Guru To Defend Himself |first=Noelle |last=Knox |work=AP News Archive |publisher=Associated Press |date=April 26, 2000 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref> The government then charged Armstrong with civil contempt and kept him in prison for over 7 years for failure to surrender various assets that may have been purchased with money from the investment fund at the center of the litigation.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/18/business/18trader.html |publisher=New York Times |title=Adviser Jailed Since 2000 Pleads Guilty in Securities Fraud Case |first=Gretchen |last=Morgenson |date=August 18, 2006 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref><ref name=NYT/> On August 17, 2006, unable to move to trial, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy.<ref name=WSJ>{{cite web|url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123137263059962659.html |date=January 8, 2009 |title=No Charge: In Civil-Contempt Cases, Jail Time Can Stretch On for Years |first=Ashby |last=Jones |accessdate=September 29, 2012}}</ref><ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Armstrong_guilty_plea.pdf</ref> He was sentenced on April 10, 2007, to five years in prison.<ref name=NYT>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/business/28financier.html |work=New York Times |title=Jailed 7 Years for Contempt, Adviser Is Headed for Prison |first=Michael J. |last=De la Merced |date=April 28, 2007 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref> Armstrong's daughter, Victoria, paid her father visits in prison most Wednesdays.<ref name=NYT2>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16jail.html |title=In Fraud Case, 7 Years in Jail for Contempt |first=Gretchen |last=Morgenson |publisher=The New York Times |date=February 16, 2007 |accessdate=September 30, 2012}}</ref> He was released from prison on September 2, 2011.{{cn|date=October 2012}}
On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for having conspired with employees of [[Republic New York]] involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 in connection with the fraud. Republic New York agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 to pay $606 million in a civil settlement.<ref name=NYT1>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/business/republic-new-york-pleads-guilty-to-securities-fraud.html |title=Republic New York Pleads Guilty to Securities Fraud |first=Kenneth N |last=Gilpin |date=December 18, 2001 |publisher=The New York Times |accessdate=September 30, 2012}}</ref> Armstrong represented himself and was excluded from some proceedings, leading the Associated Press to question whether Armstrong could get a fair trial.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2000/Jailed-Market-Guru-To-Defend-Himself/id-54251508fc681b7fc9ba002bdba88cd8 |title=Jailed Market Guru To Defend Himself |first=Noelle |last=Knox |work=AP News Archive |publisher=Associated Press |date=April 26, 2000 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref> The government then charged Armstrong with civil contempt and kept him in prison for over 7 years for failure to surrender various assets that may have been purchased with money from the investment fund at the center of the litigation.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/18/business/18trader.html |publisher=New York Times |title=Adviser Jailed Since 2000 Pleads Guilty in Securities Fraud Case |first=Gretchen |last=Morgenson |date=August 18, 2006 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref><ref name=NYT/> On August 17, 2006, unable to move to trial, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy.<ref name=WSJ>{{cite web|url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123137263059962659.html |date=January 8, 2009 |title=No Charge: In Civil-Contempt Cases, Jail Time Can Stretch On for Years |first=Ashby |last=Jones |accessdate=September 29, 2012}}</ref><ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Armstrong_guilty_plea.pdf</ref> He was sentenced on April 10, 2007, to five years in prison.<ref name=NYT>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/business/28financier.html |work=New York Times |title=Jailed 7 Years for Contempt, Adviser Is Headed for Prison |first=Michael J. |last=De la Merced |date=April 28, 2007 |accessdate=October 21, 2012}}</ref> Armstrong's daughter, Victoria, paid her father visits in prison most Wednesdays.<ref name=NYT2>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16jail.html |title=In Fraud Case, 7 Years in Jail for Contempt |first=Gretchen |last=Morgenson |publisher=The New York Times |date=February 16, 2007 |accessdate=September 30, 2012}}</ref>


==References==
==References==

Revision as of 00:44, 22 October 2012

Martin A. Armstrong
File:Martin Armstrong.jpg
Born(1949-11-01)November 1, 1949
New Jersey
Occupationformer Chairman
EmployerPrinceton Economics International Ltd
Known forCreator of the Economic Confidence Model

Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949 in New Jersey) is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

In September 1999, Armstrong faced prosecution by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for fraud. During the trial, Armstrong was imprisoned for over seven years for civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil contempt in American legal history.[1] In August 2006, Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, and began a five-year sentence.[2]

Career

Armstrong is the developer of the Economic Confidence Model based on business cycles and pi.[3] He is best known for predicting the crash of 1987 to the very day.[4] Using his theory that boom-bust cycles occur precisely every 8.6 years, he correctly predicted the Nikkei's collapse in 1989 and Russia's financial collapse in 1998.[3][5]

In June 1989, The Australian Financial Review published an article about Armstrong and his view on interest rates.[6]

Criminal conviction

On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for having conspired with employees of Republic New York involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 in connection with the fraud. Republic New York agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 to pay $606 million in a civil settlement.[7] Armstrong represented himself and was excluded from some proceedings, leading the Associated Press to question whether Armstrong could get a fair trial.[8] The government then charged Armstrong with civil contempt and kept him in prison for over 7 years for failure to surrender various assets that may have been purchased with money from the investment fund at the center of the litigation.[9][1] On August 17, 2006, unable to move to trial, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy.[2][10] He was sentenced on April 10, 2007, to five years in prison.[1] Armstrong's daughter, Victoria, paid her father visits in prison most Wednesdays.[11]

References

  1. ^ a b c De la Merced, Michael J. (April 28, 2007). "Jailed 7 Years for Contempt, Adviser Is Headed for Prison". New York Times. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  2. ^ a b Jones, Ashby (January 8, 2009). "No Charge: In Civil-Contempt Cases, Jail Time Can Stretch On for Years". Retrieved September 29, 2012.
  3. ^ a b Paumgarten, Nick (October 12, 2009). "The Secret Cycle: Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, a crank, or a genius?". The New Yorker. Retrieved September 30, 2012.
  4. ^ Blumenthal, Robin Goldwyn (June 25, 2011). "Circular Reasoning: A Market for Pi in the Sky?". Barrons online. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  5. ^ Faux, Zeke; Glovin, David (October 13, 2011). "After Prison, a Forecaster Aims for a Comeback". Bloomberg Business Week online. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  6. ^ Article Financial Australian June 1989.pdf
  7. ^ Gilpin, Kenneth N (December 18, 2001). "Republic New York Pleads Guilty to Securities Fraud". The New York Times. Retrieved September 30, 2012.
  8. ^ Knox, Noelle (April 26, 2000). "Jailed Market Guru To Defend Himself". AP News Archive. Associated Press. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  9. ^ Morgenson, Gretchen (August 18, 2006). "Adviser Jailed Since 2000 Pleads Guilty in Securities Fraud Case". New York Times. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  10. ^ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Armstrong_guilty_plea.pdf
  11. ^ Morgenson, Gretchen (February 16, 2007). "In Fraud Case, 7 Years in Jail for Contempt". The New York Times. Retrieved September 30, 2012.

Further reading

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