Economic Confidence Model
The Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory by Martin A. Armstrong. Armstrong proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which approximately Pi X 1000. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. The model has been profiled in The New Yorker, Time magazine, Financial Times and Barrons due to what appeared to be accurate predictions.
Armstrong's theory was first applied in 1977, when he used it to successfully predict an upturn in the price of commodities. The theory is based on a list of historical financial panics (26 in 224 years, between 1683 and 1907), producing a frequency of roughly 8.6 years. Armstrong concluded that a wave of 8.6 years moved through larger waves building in intensity amounting to six waves of 8.6 years constructing a major long wave of 51.6 years. Also key are quarter-cycles of 2.15 years.
Armstrong's cycle was called the "secret cycle" by the New Yorker. In Time magazine, Justin Fox wrote that Armstrong's model "made several eerily on-the-mark calls using a formula based on the mathematical constant pi." Barron's noted the model called for a change in sentiment in June 2011.
Armstrong's forecast was covered by the Financial Times on June 27, 1998 where Barry Riley wrote on the front Page 2nd Section: "Martin Armstrong, at Princeton Economics, warns that an imminent Russian economic collapse is a bigger threat to the rest of Europe than the Asian slump."
- Robin Blumenthal. "Circular Reasoning: A Market for Pi in the Sky?", Barron's, June 25, 2011
- Nick Paumgarten. "The Secret Cycle", The New Yorker, October 12, 2009
- Justin Fox. Time magazine. Pg 30; Nov. 30, 2009
- Riley, Barry (27 June 1998). "The rubble of the rouble". Financial Times – via Financial Times Historical Archive 1888-2010.