Opinion polling for the 2018 Pakistani general election: Difference between revisions
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|{{nowrap|(?) Mar 2018}} |
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|[[Gallup Pakistan]]<ref name="wsj">{{cite web |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-ex-leader-rattles-pakistans-democracy-1524657601 |title=Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan’s Democracy |first1=Saeed |last1=Shah |website=[www.wsj.com] |date=25 April 2018}}</ref> |
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|2,000 |
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| style="background: rgb(153, 255, 153);" |36% |
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|24% |
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|17% |
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| colspan="4" |23% |
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| style="background:{{Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color}}" |12% |
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|{{nowrap|01 Nov 2017}} |
|{{nowrap|01 Nov 2017}} |
Revision as of 16:14, 14 May 2018
General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on the 15th July 2018.[1] In the run up to this, several Pollsters have conducted opinion polls on both the national and provincial level.
Graphical summaries
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Opinion_polling_for_the_pakistani_general_election%2C_2018%2C2.jpg)
Nationwide voting intention
Voting intention polls conducted since 2013 for the National Assembly
Date | Pollster | Sample | PML-N | PTI | PPP | MQM-P | JUI-F | ANP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Muttahida Qaumi Movement/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Awami National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | ||||||
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | 3,000 | 34% | 26% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 19% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|8% |
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | 3,243 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 22% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color|13% |
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[3] | 4,540 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 14% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color|11% |
24 Apr 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[4] | 1,400 | 36% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 16% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|11% |
38% | 22% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 14% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|16% | |||
27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[5][6] | 3,014 | 27% | 33% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 20% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|6% |
17 Jul 2014 | SDPI/Herald[7] | 1,354 | 17% | 33% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 18% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|14% |
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | 45,388,404 | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|32.77% | 16.92% | 15.23% | 5.41% | 3.22% | 1.00% | 25.57% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|15.85% |
Province-wide voting intention
Voting intention polls conducted for each of the provinces. If a party has N/A listed in the poll, this indicates it is in the 'Others' section of the poll. If a certain poll result is bolded, this indicates that the option has achieved over 50% of the vote.
Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PML-N | PTI | PPP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | |||||
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | unspecified | 50% | 31% | 5% | 14% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|19% |
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | unspecified | 55% | 20% | 7% | 18% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|35% |
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[9] | National | 58% | 23% | 6% | 13% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|35% |
27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[5][6] | National | 38% | 35% | 7% | 20% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|3% |
17 Jul 2014 | SDPI/Herald[7] | Provincial | 25% | 43% | 11% | 21% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|18% |
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | Provincial | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|40.77% | 17.76% | 8.84% | 32.57% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|23.01% |
Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PPP | MQM (P) | PML (F) | PTI | PML (N) | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Muttahida Qaumi Movement/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (F)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | |||||
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | unspecified | 44% | 10% | — | 11% | 35% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|33% | |
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | unspecified | 46% | 7% | — | 10% | — | 37% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|36% |
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[9] | National | 52% | 11% | 2% | 14% | 12% | 7% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|38% |
27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[5][6] | National | 41% | 5% | — | 21% | 13% | 20% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|20% |
17 July 2014 | SDPI/Herald[7] | Provincial | 50% | 20% | 5% | 25% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|30% | ||
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | Provincial | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|32.6% | 25.5% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 18.1% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; color:white"|7.1% |
Date | Pollster | Legislature type | PTI | PML (N) | JUI (F) | ANP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Awami National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | ||||||
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | unspecified | 47% | 10% | 43% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|37% | ||
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | unspecified | 53% | 13% | 34% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|40% | ||
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[9] | National | 62% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 22% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|52% |
27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[5][6] | National | 50% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 21% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|35% |
17 Jul 2014 | SDPI/Herald[7] | Provincial | 40% | — | 13% | 12% | 35% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|27% |
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | Provincial | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|19.3% | 15.9% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 40.9% | style="background:Template:PTI/meta/color"|3.4% |
Date | Pollster | Legislature type | JUI (F) | PkMAP | PML (N) | BNP | NP | PPP | ANP | PTI | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:National Party (Pakistan)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Awami National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | ||||||||
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | unspecified | 22% | 18% | 16% | 44% | 4% | |||||
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | unspecified | — | 39% | — | 7% | 21% | 33% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|18% | |||
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[9] | National | — | 6% | 15% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 33% | 26% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|18% |
27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[5][6] | National | 18% | — | 5% | — | 10% | 12% | 4% | 51% | 6% | |
17 July 2014 | SDPI/Herald[7] | Provincial | — | 23% | 22% | — | 14% | 41% | 1% | |||
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | Provincial | 15.8% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 40.9% | 3.0% |
Constituency-wide voting intention
- Colour key
† Exit Poll
‡ By election result
Date | Pollster | Sample | PTI | PML (N) | JI | ANP | PPP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Jamaat-e-Islami/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Awami National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | |||||
26 Oct 2017‡ | By-election 2017 | 131,298 | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|34.8% | 18.9% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 12.1% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|15.9% |
26 Oct 2017† | CPDI[10] | 1,742 | 43% | 16% | 8% | 20% | 9% | 6% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|23% |
19 Oct 2017 | IPOR[11] | 1,313 | 41% | 18% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 19% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|25% |
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | 138,555 | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|39.8% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 13.5% | style="background:Template:PTI/meta/color"|25.1% |
Date | Pollster | Sample | PTI | PML (N) | PPP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color; width:60px;"| | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Pakistan Peoples Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| | |||||
28 Feb 2018 | IPOR[12] | 598 | 37% | 41% | 2% | 20% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|4% |
11 May 2013 | Election 2013[8] | 236,624 | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|46.6% | 43.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/meta/color"|3.4% |
Polling on Politicians
Disqualification/Resignation of Nawaz Sharif
Date | Pollster | Sample | Agree (Right) |
Disagree (Wrong) |
Don’t Know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05 April 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[13] | 1,586 | 53% | 40% | 7% | 13% |
01 Nov 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[2] | 3,000 | 55% | 33% | 11% | 22% |
54% | 31% | 15% | 23% | |||
25 Oct 2017 | Pulse Consultant[2] | 3,243 | 48% | 31% | 21% | 17% |
47% | 28% | 25% | 19% | |||
24 Oct 2017 | GSP[9] | 4,540 | 65% | 33% | 2% | 32% |
69% | 28% | 3% | 39% | |||
28 July 2017 | Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from office by the Supreme Court |
Date | Pollster | Nawaz Sharif | Imran Khan | Don’t Know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(undefined) 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[14] | 49% | 46% | 5% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|3% |
(undefined) 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[14] | 51% | 39% | 10% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|12% |
(undefined) 2016 | Gallup Pakistan[14] | 57% | 37% | 6% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|20% |
(undefined) 2015 | Gallup Pakistan[14] | 59% | 35% | 6% | style="background:Template:Pakistan Muslim League (N)/meta/color"|24% |
References
- ^ "Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has said that general elections will be held in the country on 15th July next year". Twitter. December 16, 2017.
{{cite news}}
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(help) - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Elahi, Manzar; Haider, Sajjad (24 November 2017). "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey". Geo TV.
- ^ "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey". Dunya News. 28 October 2017.
- ^ "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement". Gallup Pakistan. 24 April 2017.
- ^ a b c d e Suleri, Abid Q (2015). "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF). Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
- ^ a b c d e Sheikh, Ismail (28 October 2015). "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey". The Express Tribune. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
- ^ a b c d e "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power". Dawn. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF). Government of Pakistan. 27 May 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2017.
- ^ a b c d e "National Public Opinion Survey". Global Strategic Partners. 24 October 2017.
- ^ "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 26 October 2017.
- ^ "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 25 October 2017.
- ^ "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 1 March 2018.
- ^ "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF). 5 April 2018.
- ^ a b c d Shah, Saeed (25 April 2018). "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy". [www.wsj.com].