Talk:Cost of electricity by source

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Ita140188 / GliderMaven

Original heading: "Ita140188 seems to be trying to destroy the article." ~ ToBeFree (talk) 22:51, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Collapsing: This discussion is too heated and personal to lead to any productive result. If an editor disagrees about the existence of an article, WP:AFD is the correct venue to gain consensus for deletion. ~ ToBeFree (talk) 22:51, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.


The article, as it stood, defined methods for measuring how much electricity costs, and then lists representative examples for different situations.

Ita140188 seems to be trying to effectively destroy the article. By moving the methods of calculating costs completely out of sight and away from the examples, the article becomes so much harder for readers. Don't readers deserve to have an article that covers electricity costs? Because Ita140188 apparently doesn't think so? GliderMaven (talk) 16:01, 13 December 2019 (UTC)[reply]

I actually put a lot of work on making this article better, while being continuously reverted by you. For example, your revert reintroduced this sentence:
[..] Thermally lethargic technologies like coal and solid-fuel nuclear are physically incapable of fast ramping. However, many designs of Generation 4 molten fuel nuclear reactors will be capable of fast ramping because (A) the neutron poison xenon-135 can be removed from the reactor while it runs leaving no need to compensate for xenon-135 concentrations [10] and (B) the large negative thermal and void coefficients of reactivity automatically reduce or increase fission output as the molten fuel heats or cools, respectively.[11]
in the middle of a discussion about how to calculate LCOE. Does it make sense? Do you think an out of context detailed discussion of nuclear physics makes the article better? --Ita140188 (talk) 02:25, 14 December 2019 (UTC)[reply]
No, it doesn't. GliderMaven (talk) 22:37, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]


If you don't even know why fast ramping, expensive infrastructure is incapable of delivering low cost, then you should stop right away. Literally no country has ever, or will ever, run only nuclear power. It's propaganda by the nuclear industry to push nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors are virtually never voluntarily run demand following. Yes, they can physical ramp, yes, they can physically do it, and on occasion they may even do it, but no it doesn't matter, because they're too expesnive. A nuclear reactor running at half load is making electricity that is twice as expensive than one that is run flat out. GliderMaven (talk) 22:37, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]
From experience all your edits only harm the article. You seem to be trying to make a career out of damaging this article. Go away. Don't come back. GliderMaven (talk) 22:37, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Actually I removed that sentence, you are the one that reintroduced it. --Ita140188 (talk) 22:41, 12 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Improve Introduction and Structure

LCOE, Avoided Cost, and Marginal Cost are not "Cost Factors". They are ways of addressing the problem of comparing different relations between the timing of expenditure and product. So I would follow the introduction with a new section 1 which combines the second paragraph of the current introduction with the current 1.3, 1.4, and 1.5

Also in the current introduction, the first paragraph could be improved in various ways - some trivial and some less so.

-on the trivial end, "ways of electricity generation" sounds ungrammatical or at least contrary to common English usage. Better would be either "methods of electricity generation" or "ways of generating electricity" or "ways to generate electricity".

-since discounting of advanced or delayed costs is very relevant it might be advisable to add "which may occur at significantly different times relative to when the power is used" at the end of that first sentence

-I would move the third sentence to a second paragraph since there is a lot more to be said on that score

-Although a discount rate is included in the various ways of getting a per unit cost it is not actually a component of the cost itself, so I would omit it from the list of things that "It" includes

-Also, the initial capital is not included (as a total) in the unit cost of power so I would replace the "It" there with "The total cost" and leave the discussion of unit costs to the proposed second paragraph.

In fact I guess I'll just make the proposed edits now and see how long they survive.

alQpr (talk) 00:48, 6 January 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Can we remove the EIA 1st image?

Hey all, I updated the EIA tables (both of them) to add the new 2020 EIA AEO LCOE data. In the beginning of the EIA section, we have an image which is just a visual representation of the table that immediately follows. I updated the image with the 2020 data as well. But I don't think the image really adds anything to the section since its just a repeat of the table below.

Is anyone opposed to me removing the image?

--Keanwood (talk) 01:17, 10 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Ok for me. It would be helpful to have a graphic representation of the numbers (without unnecessarily repeating the numbers) but that figure is of poor quality. --Ita140188 (talk) 01:40, 10 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Dubious cost of nuclear energy

The first graph of Global studies states the cost of nuclear to be $164/MWh. In France, ARENH forces EDF to sell nuclear power to other electricity companies at €42/MWh. An independent study suggested a new price of €48 to reflect the real cost where EDF itself said it costs €52. How can Lazard be so off, even in its 129-198 USD range? Should we add a warning to users? Uzinagaz (talk) 11:31, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I think it's the difference between new build nuclear and old build nuclear. The French fleet was built decades ago, and inflation and asset depreciation has reduced the cost of the electricity in today's prices. A similar thing happens with coal plants. GliderMaven (talk) 14:29, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
China EPR price tag was 7.5 billion USD, roughly 4,540 USD/kW of installed capacity (Wind is currently at roughly 1,000 USD/kW but has a much lower load factor and lifespan). With a 80% load factor over 60 years, it will produce 694,267,200 MWh of electricity, bringing the cost to 10.8 USD/MWh. Add that to the ARENH revisited price (that already includes deconstruction + spent fuel storage + running costs + maintenance + fuel cost), it's 70 USD/MWh. Granted, it does not include the cost of financing but it's a far stretch from 160. What am I missing? Can we add the "disputed section" tag while we understand this? Uzinagaz (talk) 20:10, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
No, that's not how Wikipedia works. Editors don't modify an article based on their own research, this is called original research and is not permitted here. Rather, a reliable source has to be cited in order to support the information before it can go in the article. Further down the road comes how to present different sources with a Wikipedia:Neutral point of view. Lklundin (talk) 20:22, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
You are right to point out I did not make my initial suggestion clear. I am suggesting to remove (or adjust with more information) the figures because:
1. The source publication is not peer reviewed (it's written in the source document "source: lazard estimates" - which doesn't give the calculation hypothesis to verify. How is that more reliable than my demonstration?)
2. A back-of-the-envelope calculation allows to question the validity of the publication's figures
3. The section does not state the notes on the source document that give off essential information to correctly interpret the figures
I'll add to my suggestion to also remove the BNEF statement that is simply plain wrong. You cannot compare intermittent energy costs with controllable energy costs without adding at least storage costs (or controllable energy costs). Using their own figures present there, solar or PV comes out more expensive than anything else. Uzinagaz (talk) 21:15, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
As the editor who has been updating this page with the Lazard data as it comes out, I'm sympathetic to Uzinagaz's argument that the Lazard estimate is not a good guess at the LCOE of future nuclear SMRs. The EIA guesses they'll be around $70/MWh in 2026: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf which roughly matches what I've seen elsewhere. But the LCOE studies that this section is based on existing data from new deployments, and we simply have many fewer of those. (Should we count Vogtle's obscene cost overruns?) Nuclear poses challenges to anyone seeking apples-to-apples comparisons. You project a very long lifetime for nuclear plants, which is legitimate, but you don't appear to include a non-0 discount rate, which is IMHO not legit, or a cost of fuel disposal, which is AFAICT impossible: could be negative (fuel is reprocessed) or gigantic (Hanford). Note that the challenges of getting reasonable estimates are not confined to nuclear: IRENA, which unlike BNEF or Lazard is in the business of promoting wind and solar and therefore "biased", has implausibly high estimates for their costs—the opposite of what you would expect from their "bias". Your criticism of BNEF is unjust: they are quite aware of the wide range of costs that can be included or left out, and they do their best. You only cite the omissions whose inclusion would favor nuclear. NuScale and Oklo are working to deliver SMRs at, IIRC, ~$4,000/kw installed; once they are doing that we should have several up to date LCOE values for nuclear under $100. Until then, the best we can do as stewards of this page is to **find good data sources and add them**. I particularly encourage you to put country-specific nuclear data in country sections. In short: cost estimates are complicated, especially for nuclear. As Wiki editors, let's work together to gather and cite the best ones we can find. As a citizen, I like you am rooting for a nuclear renaissance, but that shouldn't affect what I put on this page. Sampenrose (talk) 02:33, 17 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Discount rate has little to 0 impact on nuclear electricity cost. Has stated previously, the back-of-the-envelope calculation I provided does not include financing cost that may or may not be relevant depending on how the project is financed (see Cloud200 answer below too). ARENH price includes fuel disposal costs (based on Deep geological repository) so it's already factored in. France has 13% of the world running nuclear reactor by count (58 out of 440) and 15% by installed power (61.4 GW out of 399). If Lazard range does not include this cost, is it representative of reality? I do think nuclear power could help in the climate change challenge (but it doesn't cloud my judgement as going full nuclear is impossible anyway, at least without Breeder reactor), so I spend a lot of time researching it. The figure jumped at me, making me question the validity of it and starting this talk. Now I realize that the problem is not only for nuclear power. The Global studies section does not warn the user of the difficulty to appreciate the cost of electricity globally nor the parameters in play. It also does not warn him of the validity of trying a global approach. At the very least, a global cost estimate should at least propose a range by source to reflect reality and stay as neutral as possible. I favor quality over quantity, if the current sources are too limited, they should not be there. Uzinagaz (talk) 13:13, 17 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
In all economic models of power generation there are two critical factors that can make energy very expensive or very cheap, both on paper and in reality: Discount rate and cost of financing. Incidentally, in most nuclear power economic models (including LAZARD), for nuclear these parameters are always somehow set to the worst-case scenario. Discount rate is set to a very high value (8-12%), basically meaning that the nuclear power plant loses economic value after 10-20 years, which is utterly stupid if look at nuclear power plants providing the same amount of energy after 60 years of operations. The second factor, cost of financing, is more realistic - cost of private financing of nuclear power plant is very expensive and takes up to 60% of its price. Just to repeat: up to 60% of some nuclear power plants is the loan interest. In countries where power infrastructure is publicly funded, this cost if obviously negligible, as you have noticed already in case of China. All that is explained pretty well in these two articles:
I suppose the first one could be used as a WP:RS, but I'm also pretty sure this criticism of LAZARD methodology is also present in literature. Also, nothing prevents you from adding ARENH or any other actual nuclear electricity pricing data to the article if they can be referred to WP:RS and they are not used to criticise LAZARD directly ("look, these prices are lower!") but any thinking reader can compare these two and draw their own conclusions. Cloud200 (talk) 22:20, 16 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Your first link does question the methodology validity of Lazard for nuclear costs. If this part is questionnable, how could we trust the rest? It is my understanding that a source can be quoted when it is reliable. My point is that it might not be and I'm asking for other's opinion. Uzinagaz (talk) 13:13, 17 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Because LCOE is what it is - it doesn't claim to describe the actual price of energy from existing or new power plants. It's an financial tool for investment evaluation, pretty much like ROI, it doesn't care about CO2 or anything else but describes a particular parameter from investor's perspective. The fact that it's widely misinterpreted as "cost of energy" is another question and initially renewable energy supporters protested against it just as much as nuclear, but then LCOE started to show renewables as cheap so they calmed down. The article probably should have big fat warning on the top about misinterpreting the LCOE formula. Cloud200 (talk) 14:07, 17 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
I would be confortable with any figure as long as the give off the LCOE parameters they used. Unfortunately, the page as is perpetuates the misconception you described by giving too obscure numbers. Where would you put the warning you mentioned? Uzinagaz (talk) 15:54, 17 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Proposed changes

Based on the review on the article and partially on the above discussion I would like to propose the following changes:

  • Move the Per-unit cost metrics above the Global studies section to prevent casual readers from jumping into conclusions before they understand what they are looking at
  • Add a bold note in the Global studies section referring to the LCOE article for disclaimers about the caveats of LCOE formula
  • Remove the chart in the beginning of Global studies section as it serves as the best self-proof of the confusion caused by the concept of LCOE: averaging estimates from studies based on radically different assumptions (capacity factor, discount rate) is not only WP:OR but also ridicules the authority of Wikipedia as reputable source.

Cloud200 (talk) 18:17, 19 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I am blocking consensus on these proposals, noting "ridicules the authority of Wikipedia" as not in scope for editing decisions. Sampenrose (talk) 02:47, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
I tried removing the graph with the averages, but I was reverted by Sampenrose. I don't want to start reverting reverts, but this is a very clear case of WP:OR. In particular, it is definitely not a routing calculation (WP:CALC) and as this talk page discussion proves, there is no consensus for it. So I would be grateful if another user would take a look and fix this. --Ita140188 (talk) 02:19, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Hi Ita140188 Regarding "There is no consensus for it", I translate that as "I made a unilateral decision to remove sourced material from another user and got reverted." Regarding "this is a very clear case of WP:OR", you have not made that case. I have reviewed WP:OR and do not see it. The bar graph presents the table in graphic form, as is common on Wikipedia. If you would be happier with an X-axis that had 1 value per source instead of all N values divided by N, I am perfectly happy to accept such an edit. Sampenrose (talk) 02:44, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Update: I said that the chart removal was made "without opening a Talk discussion"; that was incorrect. Someone else in effect opened that discussion. Sampenrose (talk) 02:49, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Thanks for your replies. As for the consensus, WP:CALC is about consensus to add non-trivial calculations, not the other way around. Anyway, I would be completely ok if the graph had a bar for each source, instead of one bar for the average. The OR problem is the average here, not the graph. I can do the change if you want. --Ita140188 (talk) 06:49, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
The chart is WP:OR because it applies an additional aggregation to data that cannot be aggregated in such way. Each of these LCOE estimates are calculated on different methodology and you just can't go and average them as it's comparing apples an oranges. Presenting it as three separate bars for each publication as Sampenrose would be absolutely acceptable as it would be indeed just graphical presentation of the table - it's the average that is a problem here. Cloud200 (talk) 09:21, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
"Each of these LCOE estimates are calculated on different methodology and you just can't go and average them as it's comparing apples an oranges." The entire point of LCoE is that it makes apples-to-apples comparisons. That's what "levelized" means. That said, we have consensus on a path forward for the graphic, so the disagreement is moot. Sampenrose (talk) 15:33, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Something like this, I just can't figure out how to add Lazard, IRENA etc to the legend:

Thanks, I corrected the values and added a legend (the order is decided by the graph apparently):

--Ita140188 (talk) 10:12, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Edit: I fixed the order by putting Lazard first, which has values for all technologies. --Ita140188 (talk) 10:18, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
@Cloud200: regarding your recent edit: while I agree we should discuss the limitations of LCOE, I think it should be done within normal text. I am against putting a note at the top of the section. --Ita140188 (talk) 12:54, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
I also oppose putting the note there and am going to remove it. Sampenrose (talk) 15:33, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Ita140188 thank you so much for revising the graphic! The work involved can be tedious; I appreciate the effort and good will you invested. Sampenrose (talk) 15:33, 20 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Ok, I thought nobody opposed the other changes proposed. What do we now then? I believe the current presentation of LCOE as "price of energy" is still misleading. Returning to the comment by Sampenrose above, levelization just at one parameter (financial) but ignores capacity factor and assumes an arbitrary discount rate as discussed in the publications linked above. Cloud200 (talk) 15:14, 23 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
I'm very sympathetic to the fact that you used the Talk page to float your ideas and took silence for consent. If you read back a couple years, that's how I started. I'll try to pay closer attention and engage constructively here; my apologies for lagging. Regarding the substance of your point: 1. criticisms of LCoE exist. 2. LCoE includes capacity factor: it's measure of energy, not power. 3. To my knowledge, the most respected global survey of energy prices are the BNEF, IRENA, and Lazard surveys that use LCoE. If there is a better survey, please cite its data! If there is a methodology with comparable uptake (not one that you like per your arguments on this page, one that is as recognized as LCoE), please cite that! 4. I have no idea why averaging discount rates is illegitimate; it seems to me obviously better than not averaging them. 5. Your above "LCOE ... doesn't claim to describe the actual price of energy from existing or new power plants. It's an financial tool for investment evaluation, pretty much like ROI, it doesn't care about CO2 or anything else but describes a particular parameter from investor's perspective" does not reflect how BNEF/IRENA/Lazard present LCoE or are received by their readership. A more accurate statement would be along the lines of "determining average costs is by construction an exercise in collapsing a diverse set of data points into a single number that does not reflect their full range. LCoE focuses on factors X, Y, and Z, making simplifications X1, Y1, and Z1. It does not include factors A, B, and C." You can check the three LCoE-based studies by evaluating their common assertion that solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy. If it is true, you would expect other sources to report that solar and wind are market leaders because of low prices. Which, in fact, they do.Sampenrose (talk) 03:44, 24 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
  • Sampenrose Some examples of inconsistency between LCOE models and actual energy prices were already given by Uzinagaz. This is precisely what drawn me into this discussion earlier and after doing some research on my own I did see that there is indeed a problem of LCOE being widely misinterpreted.
    • Discount rate is an arbitrary parameter, assumed by the author of the model. It's not a physical parameter, like capacity factor, neither economic, like price of concrete. If you are an investor interested in a particular project and you estimate LCOE for that specific project, you know what the discount rate on your investment is. If you are Lazard, you basically come up with a number that is taken out of a hat.
    • Why this is important? Because, as demonstrated in the OECD NEA report[1], if you assume 3% discount rate, residential PV LCOE is $100-200 but if you assume 10% it suddenly skyrockets to $150-350. For nuclear power they jump from $30-60 range to $50-130 range etc, and the ranges are becoming much wider too. Any model that produces such massively different outputs based on a single assumed parameter is prone to be wrong more often than right.
    • I did check Irena 2019 study, they assume discount rate of 7.5%. Why? No idea. They just take this value but don't explain why.
    • BNEF, Irena and Lazard are private companies, working for investment banks. They are not NGOs, public research institutions or non-profit organisations. A for-profit company that comes up with a proprietary methodology that has a massive impact on projected "price of a technology" should fire a warning light due to possible conflict of interest.
    • And the LCOE models actually wildly differ when compared to actual prices of energy. One ARENH example[2] has been discussed above - that was $58, which is well in the middle of the 3% discount rate range but well below the median for 10% range. Another example is in Sweden[3], article in Swedish but the key messages are:
      • In public debate people actually do use BNEF estimates as actual expected price for energy from that source. In that case, arguing that Swedish estimates for nuclear plant are "too low", because BNEF says they should be much higher.
      • Another example is OL3 power plant in Finland, where the actual investor calculated LCOE is way lower:

Based on the above production targets and the current operating and capital cost expectations, TVO’s average long-term production cost target for OL1, OL2 and OL3 EPR combined is expected to be approximately 30 € / MWh. OL1 and OL2 together produce 14–15 TWh / year at a cost of 20 EUR / MWh, which means that TVO's own calculation (corresponding to LCOE) for OL3 is around 42 EUR / MWh, in line with the simple calculation from public data above. So what does Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) state for the results of its LCOE calculation for OL3? A range has been reached that ranges from a minimum value of the equivalent of 190 EUR / MWh up to a staggering 375 EUR / MWh. Two things about this are strange, partly that you do not seem to have a clue where you think the figure will actually land, for a project that has been completed for a long time and will go into commercial operation at the beginning of next year, and partly that the cost estimates are up to 900% higher than the owner's easily verifiable public figures from annual reports.

      • The author makes a very good point about BNEF and other proprietary models:

These so-called actual costs are said to differ from the assumed costs that have been used as input values ​​in the studies. The criticism is quite diffuse as it never questions any input value (for example capital cost, operating cost, operating length, etc.). Instead, the criticism consists of a comparison of the “LCOE value” (electricity production cost per kWh) that one would get if it is calculated with these input values, and a set of “LCOE values” which is thus stated by a specific company (BNEF). (...) In my opinion, it is deeply inappropriate, as academics in the media, to trumpet "what new nuclear power costs" by repeating values ​​from a publicly secret LCOE estimate of a private company, performed with unclear input values ​​and with unclear methods, based on a selection of a handful of projects (out of more than 100 projects in the last 20 years). The figures from BNEF have a certain shock value, as they stand out by being dramatically higher than corresponding estimates from virtually all other similar calculations and estimates, carried out by, for example, Energiforsk, the Swedish Energy Agency, International Energy Agency (IEA), European Commission, OECD and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Could it really be that all other organizations are completely wrong and only BNEF is right about this?

The he goes into a in-depth analysis:

BNEF states its own input values, without reference to sources, with values ​​that are often incorrect. Sometimes the input values ​​seem to correspond fairly well with reality, sometimes not at all. In the case of Finland (OL3), for example, a cost of capital has been assumed for the customer that is up to 230% above the actual value. For the cost item “fixed operating costs”, a value has been assumed that is up to 300% higher than the fixed operating costs for Nordic nuclear power today. Illustrative of the quality of the data collection performed for the analysis is that in their calculations they also stated an incorrect size of the reactor, 1400 MW instead of 1600 MW. BNEF has not been able to provide any explanation for any of these discrepancies.

And finally:

The figures from BNEF can therefore not be interpreted as, or referred to, as the “actual cost of new nuclear power” and should absolutely never have been presented in such a way in the Swedish debate.

I don't want to copy-paste the whole article about BNEF here, but it contains much more examples of distortion of actual costs by BNEF. Therefore, presenting on Wikipedia results of proprietary models based on undisclosed parameters by private companies who have vital interests in specific valuation of specific companies and doing so without a word of caution is simply irresponsible. Cloud200 (talk) 09:48, 24 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks so much for the thoughtful reply. It will take me a day or two to get through your links; I'll try to respond in depth by this weekend. Sampenrose (talk) 15:52, 24 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]
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