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Talk:Opinion polling for the 2022 Italian general election

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 151.71.84.89 (talk) at 14:34, 23 July 2022 (→‎refresh the graphical summary!: new section). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

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Polls graph

Why has the polling graph stopped updating? I looked at the code and it seems fine. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 84.89.157.42 (talk • contribs)

It's not automatically updated. I think Impru20 is periodically updating it. --Ritchie92 (talk) 12:41, 19 July 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Strange artifacts in graph

Does anyone have the raw data and a data analysis file in something like R? Some of these points look really weird and I can’t tell if the problem is the data or the analysis.

Maybe the points have been Winsorized or truncated somehow? Closed Limelike Curves (talk) 18:20, 3 December 2021 (UTC)[reply]

The data is the exact same that is in the table (literally, the numbers are copy-pasted into the Excel file that get's recognized by R to automatically create the chart). Which points do you see as weird? Impru20talk 18:36, 3 December 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I see; do you have a copy of the spreadsheet?

The reason I think it looks weird is that all the numbers look almost like they’re drawn from a uniform distribution, which doesn’t make any sense… Closed Limelike Curves (talk) 20:09, 26 December 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I agree this is very strange. I don't know whether the issue is in the original data or in the graph, but the plot does not look like legitimate polling data. As well as the constrained uniform-looking spreads in some areas (especially e.g. 2018/2019 for Forza Italia), there's also the extremely gradual changing lines of outlying data, like in Lega for 2020 and Forza in 2021 (which looks more like a moving average or something - no way separate polls would give that similar results in a row like that).
Also the data just seems to have an unusual amount of consistency and lack of outliers (look at FdI for example). Definitely something going on here. Yaldi5 (talk) 12:01, 21 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

There’s a few possibilities here: 1. Fraud—some of these polls were completely fabricated. This isn’t as uncommon as you’d think, which is why you have to make sure to stick to regular pollsters. 2. Extreme pollster herding; it’s possible that Italian pollsters are just unwilling to stick their necks out, so they suppress or reweight outliers to be more in line with consensus. While possible, this would have to be the most extreme case of herding I have ever seen, suggesting a lack of ethics (like suppression of polls) rather than just overly-aggressive weighting. 3. Misinterpreting sources—maybe some of these “Polls” aren’t polls, they’re moving averages or model-based regression lines.

It could also be something else I’m not thinking of. Closed Limelike Curves (talk) 16:32, 21 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Add Italexit maybe?

Polled around 2% from all the polls 95.248.219.133 (talk) 09:40, 28 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

A minority of pollsters give the values for Italexit. So by previous consensus we do not show them in the table. Yakme (talk) 09:44, 28 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The party should be definitely added. The only problem is that someone would have to do the job. Hope anyone can do it. --Checco (talk) 17:21, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I definitely disagree. See previous consensus, or establish a new one. Yakme (talk) 17:36, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
So what? I know that and my comment was designed in order of achieving a new consensus. Obviously, I hope that other editors will join me in forming a new consensus. Is it a problem? Also, things have changed: the party is polled by the leading pollsters and it usually reaches substantial numbers. However, if a consensus is achieved, a problem would be still there: finding someone willing to do the job of adding all previous results of Italexit to the tables. --Checco (talk) 17:44, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Sorry but what you say is not true. See the updated table in here. Much less than half of the main pollsters give numbers for Italexit. If consensus adding parties is achieved I can easily add Italexit to the table, so do not worry about that. Yakme (talk) 17:54, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The leading pollsters in Italy are SWG, Ipsos, Euromedia and Demos&Pi—all four of them poll Italexit. That is my view. --Checco (talk) 17:58, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
How do you define "leading pollsters" in Italy? It's interesting that the ones and only leading pollsters you picked are the ones that confirm your position (and are the only relevant ones to do so)! Instead, by current consensus the pollsters considered to be "leading pollsters" are the ones in the first section of the table above, notably including Demopolis, EMG, Piepoli, Index. Yakme (talk) 18:15, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The most renowned pollsters are those I mentioned. It is no surprise that they all include Italexit in their surveys. --Checco (talk) 12:52, 2 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I updated the pollsters table with some of the latest polls, and it actually looks like more and more pollsters are sampling Italexit. This means we should add it to the table. Since I was apparently the only one against this, I will proceed and add it. Yakme (talk) 09:53, 1 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I appreciate that. Italexit poll numbers should be included also for 2021. Anyone volunteering to do it? --Checco (talk) 12:52, 2 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]
There are only a handful of polls in 2021 listing Italexit. It's not worth the hassle to add a column just for that. I think the current situation is good enough. Yakme (talk) 08:10, 4 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

update polling map!

the polling map should be updated every month… 5.168.17.74 (talk) 13:10, 19 May 2022 (UTC)[reply]

More Europe and Action single column

@Broncoviz Why don't we make a single column +E-A for the whole 2022? In this moment it looks weird that a lot of rows have +E and A together, and starting from some random point in time we merge them. We can have a note saying that in the few cases where the parties were polled separately we show the sum of the two. Yakme (talk) 08:55, 8 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Sure, I think it's pretty reasonable Broncoviz (talk) 17:59, 8 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

refresh the graphical summary!

even more so now that the elections in Italy will take place in two months, the map should be updated often impru20 do something! 151.71.84.89 (talk) 14:34, 23 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

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