User:RogerGLewis
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:RogerGLewis it seems has decided to remind me that I have an old association with wikipedia from my life back in the Old Country. User:RogerGLewis From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository Just to introduce myself. My name is Roger Lewis, I live just outside of Bristol in the UK. I live with my partner and 3 year old daughter, I am 44 years old and have a degree in Estate Management from The Polytechnic of the South Bank and I am also a Chartered Surveyor. I run my Country Estate and study Music and Guitar as my hobby. I also keep horses and compete as an owner in the sport of Eventing. I collect Guitars and paintings and read mainly Biographies and Guitar/Music books both Theory and history on music.
Well if a week is a long time in politics then 7 years is an eternity in Roger World.
I emigrated to Sweden In 2010 since when I have pursued an AutoDidactic programme of study in , Music, Swedish Language, Philosophy and Political Economy. My Linkedin profile is the most concise potted history of the stages of my life that have lead me to the present , the journey that I have been on has taught me that being in the Present Moment is precious. https://se.linkedin.com/in/rogerglewisRogerGLewis (talk) 13:29, 20 August 2016 (UTC)
The Ending of the Long Monetary Expansion Cycle and a Brave new world of Housing Realism.
Introduction
ChatGPT says that Overall, the notes and reference document this essay is based upon, presents a neutral and informative tone, providing insights into the UK's housing market and related policies. That is Our Intention.
The discourse surrounding the "Housing Crisis" often neglects important actors and factors. These include the Absorption Rate, Last Time Buyers, Cash Buyers, Fiscal Policy (MIRAS and Stamp Duty), and Mortgage Lending and Credit creation by the Banking Sector. Additionally, the demography of an Ageing population and high levels of net Immigration must be considered. While both Demand and Supply sides should properly be analysed, there is a lack of popular or policy narrative literature on the segmentation of the Housing stock and its influence on prioritisation of choices and related resource and finance allocation for Land and construction across tenures, additional to the more common analysis of Mortgages for the Owner occupation market. The size of the New housing supply and the different players in the Housing Market are also important considerations. Polarisation of the discourse, with a focus solely on supply problems, hinders progress towards a solution. A more nuanced approach that considers demand-side factors such as interest rates, mortgage market liberalization, and income inequality is long overdue. RogerGLewis (talk) 12:51, 23 May 2023 (UTC)
Home@ix has for the past 3 years looked at a range of topics related to the housing market and finance. It highlights the need to consider both supply and demand-side factors when analysing the market, and the now real potential for a European/US-US sovereign debt crisis. More recently we have noted the emergence of vulture investors in the buy-to-let mortgage market and explored the potential obstacle this may pose to workable solutions for affordable housing, including The HBF’s deposit unlock scheme and more speculatively a Rentenmark-style green bond (Wrigley),to support affordable house building. We emphasise the importance of understanding the different markets for housing services and assets, as well as the functions of money and its creation in the context of its traditional billing as a medium of exchange, measure of value, store of value, basis of credit, unit of account, and standard of postponed payment. Finally, the origins of the word 'mortgage' when explored, reveal its eerie root in the Latin term for 'death pledge', we wonder would this coinage still be in use in a prosperous home owning democracy and society with secure tenure and good housing for all. Perhaps the use of this antiquated term is an appropriate censure and reminder of the extent to which the Social benefits of secure home occupation supported as part of the valuable social capital of Civic society, have been eroded over the Boom and bust decades since 1980. Overall, we have sought to provide a thought-provoking analysis of the complex and interconnected issues surrounding housing and finance.
A potted historical analysis of the UK housing market from the post-World War 1 period to the present day will find certain standard factors that influenced housing demand and supply, such as population growth, migration, interest rates and the availability of mortgages and building land coupled to affordability in terms of household budgets. A clear feature one would have to note is that rationing was generally in force for much of the post-World War 2 period, which saw limited
access to loans and led to building society rationing during periods of high demand even when ration books for other goods were a fading memory and not known to the Post war generation of Boomers now approaching retirement. In the “Yuppy” merry go round of the 1980’s which saw the entry of banks into the housing market, interest rate movements have become the more likely way
to clear the market than rationing. As Yesterday post punk yuppies become today’s NIMBY's, House prices have risen in correlation with the increased money supply since the early 1980’s. This correlation and huge price growth has seen house prices and rental prices outstripping Wage growth which in turn has broken the fundamental relationship between incomes and rentals to Property values. This trend has been further exaggerated by the financialisation of Housing as an Asset class over and above its necessary social value. A trip down the housing memory lane would be remiss without asking what happened to government policies on housing, such as the "Homes fit for heroes" campaigns and the the post “Great War” Town Planning. Act of 1919. Overall we hope to provide valuable context into the UK housing market's past and present dynamics.
The issue of affordable housing in the UK has been a growing concern since the mid-1990s. The traditional means of providing suitable housing has been through a combination of local authority provision, private landlords, and home ownership supported by mortgages. However, with the liberalization of the housing market since the 1980s and light-touch regulation of the finance sector, the financing and distribution of housing have changed considerably. Land use policy, government policy, regulation of rent levels, and the availability of land for development are just a few of the dynamic variables that contribute to the problem. The modern property market is based on privately created debt money, distributed through the banking system. Following the financial crisis of 2008, there has been a focus on borrowers and their actions rather than the lenders and credit creation dynamics. This leads to a misdiagnosis of the problem as a supply shortage rather than an affordability and allocation issue. Addressing these complex variables requires a multi-faceted approach and a deeper understanding of the system as a whole.
The UK housing market is a complex and dynamic system that involves various stakeholders, including central and local government, house builders, SMEs, contractors, banks, and housing associations. The market has experienced several fluctuations in tenure ratios over the years. The post-World War 1 and post-World War 2 periods were characterized by a shortage of housing, leading to the construction of council houses. In the 1970s, there was a boom in the housing market, followed by a bust in the 1980s, which led to the introduction of the right-to-buy scheme. The 1990s saw another boom and bust, followed by the naughties boom and bust.
In recent years, the housing market has been impacted by various factors, including the pandemic, which has led to urban flight. The pandemic has also highlighted the need for a great reset in the housing market to address the current housing shortage and affordability crisis. The supply side of the market is influenced by land availability, planning regulations, and financing options. The shift towards larger house builders has reduced the number of SMEs in the market, while the contracting business has undergone several reviews to improve efficiency and sustainability and a similar consolidation into larger firms.
Banks play a crucial role in providing financing for land acquisition and construction procurement. However, the demand side of the market is driven by owner occupation, rental market, social housing, and buy-to-let options. The transfer of local authority housing to housing associations has led to their growth, while revenue from the right-to-buy scheme has not been invested in new stock.
Overall, the UK housing market is a broken dynamic system that requires collaboration and innovation from all stakeholders to address the current housing shortage and affordability crisis.
In concluding this introduction the UK housing market is a complex ecosystem that requires a holistic approach to address the current challenges. The pandemic has highlighted the need for a great reset in the housing market, which should involve collaboration and innovation from all stakeholders. The supply side of the market should focus on improving efficiency and sustainability, while the demand side should prioritise affordability and social housing options. The housing system is broken,but with concerted efforts from all stakeholders, it can be fixed.
The Housing Affordability Crisis.
In the debate surrounding what should properly be called “the housing affordability crisis” there has been a common agreement among think-tanks that a shortage of supply is the main cause of unaffordability. However, there has been little discussion on the role of demand-side factors such as interest rates and income inequality. These demand-side framing's are often unpopular among New Urban Economists and are seen as challenging the efficacy of free markets. Left-leaning think-tanks also tend to avoid demand-side explanations as they imply politically unfeasible policies such as wealth redistribution. As a result, supply-side framing's continue to dominate in the English policy discourse. It is important to consider both supply and demand-side factors when analysing the housing affordability crisis and when considering and developing a full range of policy solutions.
Chris Foy in his recent paper discusses the trend of think-tanks becoming more disciplined in their framing strategies since 2017, with examples from Shelter, Centre for Cities, and Policy Exchange. The explanation for this trend is attributed to changes in politics, particularly the vacuum in policymaking after the 2016 EU referendum, and We would add both during and since the Event 201 Pandemic . Framing strategies involve presenting a selective yet not factually inaccurate picture of empirical evidence and entwining it with a preferred policy agenda. However, this can lead to reductive debates and politically contingent causal narratives. A full treatment of the subject would consider several factors all of which have culpability in contributing to the housing crisis including demographics, wages, employment, the mortgage market, cash buyers, the Bank of Mum and Dad, and the effect on Generation Rent of student debt,the new innovation since the 1990’s.