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Peak Copper
Current reserves and resources.
Copper available in the mantle.
Extraction techniques.
Mining technology.
Mining mechanisation
Price/grade relationship.
Exploration techniques.
Substitution.
Recycling.
More economic use.
Peak copper is a phrase coined some years ago to denote the time when world copper production reaches its maximum. Being a finite resource, production may cease at some time in the future and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. If and when this will occur depends on numerous factors and is a matter of some dispute.
Copper is amongst the most important industrial metals due to its high ductility, malleability, thermal and electrical conductivity and resistance to corrosion and ranks third after iron and aluminium in terms of quantity used. Electrical uses account for about three quarters of total copper consumption [1]
Because of its properties, singularly or in combination, of high ductility, malleability, and thermal and electrical conductivity, and its resistance to corrosion, copper has become a major industrial metal, ranking third after iron and aluminum in terms of quantities consumed. Electrical uses of copper, including power transmission and generation, building wiring, telecommunication, and electrical and electronic products, account for about three quarters of total copper use. Building construction is the single largest market, followed by electronics and electronic products, transportation, industrial machinery, and consumer and general products. Copper byproducts from manufacturing and obsolete copper products are readily recycled and contribute significantly to copper supply.
Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future production will cease, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. When this will occur is a matter of dispute. Unlike fossil fuels, though, copper is scrapped and reused. Copper is among the most important industrial metals. Copper is used in electrical power cables, data cables, electrical equipment, automobile radiators, cooling and refrigeration tubing, heat exchangers, artillery shell casings, water pipes, and jewellery.
Copper has been in use at least 10,000 years, but more than 95 percent of all copper ever mined and smelted has been extracted since 1900. As India and China race to catch up with the West, copper is becoming in short supply,[2] leading to increased prices and an increase in copper theft.
North America alone mined 164 million metric tons of the reddish-brown metal.[3]
Copper demand
Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating.[2] Based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption, Tom Graedel and colleagues at Yale University calculate that by 2100 global demand for copper will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground.[4] China accounts for more than 22% of world copper demand.[5]
For some purposes, other metals can substitute. For example, during a copper shortage in the 1970s, aluminum wire was substituted in many applications, bringing difficulties that persisted in later decades.
Copper supply
.PNG)
Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three world-class copper mines being consumed annually.[2] Environmental analyst Lester Brown has suggested copper might run out within 25 years based on what he considered a reasonable extrapolation of 2% growth per year.[6]
New copper discoveries
56 new copper discoveries have been made during the past three decades.[2] World discoveries of copper peaked in 1996.[7]
Production
The chief producers of copper are Chile, United States, and Peru.[8] 21 of the 28 largest copper mines in the world are not amenable to expansion.[2] Many large copper mines will be exhausted between 2010 and 2015.[2]
| Country | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 4,580 | 4,860 | 5,410 | 5,320 | 5,560 | 5,700 |
| United States | 1,140 | 1,120 | 1,160 | 1,150 | 1,200 | 1,190 |
| China | 585 | 565 | 620 | 640 | 890 | 920 |
| Peru | 843 | 850 | 1,040 | 1,090 | 1,049 | 1,200 |
| Poland | 503 | 500 | 531 | 530 | 512 | 470 |
| Australia | 873 | 870 | 854 | 930 | 859 | 860 |
| Mexico | 330 | 330 | 406 | 420 | 338 | 400 |
| Indonesia | 1,160 | 1,170 | 840 | 1,050 | 816 | 780 |
| Zambia | 330 | 330 | 427 | 450 | 476 | 530 |
| Russia | 695 | 700 | 675 | 675 | 725 | 730 |
| Khazakhstan | 490 | 480 | 461 | 400 | 457 | 460 |
| Canada | 600 | 580 | 546 | 580 | 607 | 585 |
| Other Countries | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,610 | 1,750 | 1,835 | 1,800 |
| Total | 13,600 | 13,900 | 14,600 | 14,900 | 15,100 | 15,600 |
Reserves
The U.S. Geological Survey reported a current total reserve base of copper (economic and uneconomic) of 1.6 billion tonnes as of 2005, of which 950 million tonnes was considered economically recoverable.[3]
| Country | Reserves | Percent | Reserve Base | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 150,000 | 30.61% | 360,000 | 38.30% |
| United States | 35,000 | 7.14% | 70,000 | 7.45% |
| China | 26,000 | 5.31% | 63,000 | 6.70% |
| Peru | 30,000 | 6.12% | 60,000 | 6.38% |
| Poland | 30,000 | 6.12% | 48,000 | 5.11% |
| Australia | 24,000 | 4.90% | 43,000 | 4.57% |
| Mexico | 30,000 | 6.12% | 40,000 | 4.26% |
| Indonesia | 35,000 | 7.14% | 38,000 | 4.04% |
| Zambia | 19,000 | 3.88% | 35,000 | 3.72% |
| Russia | 20,000 | 4.08% | 30,000 | 3.19% |
| Khazakhstan | 14,000 | 2.86% | 20,000 | 2.13% |
| Canada | 9,000 | 1.84% | 20,000 | 2.13% |
| Other Countries | 35,000 | 7.14% | 110,000 | 11.70% |
| Total | 490,000 | 100% | 940,000 | 100% |
Known conventional resources
Recycling
Each year in the USA, more copper is recovered and put back into service from recycled material than is derived from newly mined ore. Copper’s recycle value is so great that premium-grade scrap normally has at least 95% of the value of primary metal from newly mined ore.[12]
Undiscovered conventional resources
Based on current discovery rates and existing geologic surveys, researchers have estimated that 1.6 billion metric tons of copper exist that could potentially be brought into use. This figure relies on the broadest possible definition of available copper as well as a lack of energy constraints and environmental concerns.[3]
Unconventional resources
Deep-sea nodules are estimated to contain 700 million tonnes of copper.
Peak copper for individual nations
Chile
Chile is the world's largest copper producer, and in 2007 accounted for 38% of the world's primary copper production (see table above). One researcher has stated that Chile copper production may begin to decline irreversibly in 2008.[2] However, this is contradicted by the Chilean Copper Commission, which has projected that, based on planned expansion projects, Chilean copper production will continue to increase through at least 2012.[13]
Poland
Poland peaked in 1970 at 2 million tonnes per year.[14]
Zaire
In Zaire, Copper production fell by 90% from 1976 (502,000 tons) to wartime 1993 (50,000 tons). Resumption depends on political factors.[15]
Copper price
The price of copper struck its highest ever level on March 6, 2008 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), surging 5.8 percent over the previous trading day to 4.02 dollars per pound. The previous record was set on May 12, 2006 at 3.98 dollars per pound. The international copper price increased rapidly in early 2008, rising 23 percent in February 2008,[16] then declined 40% before December 2008,[17] and reached $1.30 by year's end.[18]
See also
References
- ^ [http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/ Copper Statistics and Information]
- ^ a b c d e f g Andrew Leonard (2006-03-02). "Peak copper?". Salon - How the World Works. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
- ^ a b c David Biello (2006-01-17). "Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage". Scientific American. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
- ^ David Cohen (2007-05-23). "Earth's natural wealth: an audit". New Scientist. p. pp. 34–41. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
{{cite web}}:|page=has extra text (help) - ^ Dan Glaister, Tania Branigan and Owen Bowcott (2008-03-20). "Deaths and disruption as price rise sees copper thefts soar". The Guardian. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ Brown, Lester (2006). Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton. p. 109. ISBN 0393328317.
- ^ "Peak Copper Means Peak Silver". Charleston Voice. 2005-12-29. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ Samuel K. Moore (2008-03). "Supply Risk, Scarcity, and Cellphones". IEEE Spectrum. IEEE. Retrieved 2008-03-23.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2004. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ "pg. 56 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2006. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ a b "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ "Copper in the USA: Bright Future – Glorious Past". Copper Development Association. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ Chilean Copper Commission (Sept. 2006): Current and future situation of the copper industry in Chile (Adobe *.PDF file)
- ^ Marcin Piwocki and Stanislaw Przenioslo (2004). "Mineral raw materials and commodities of Poland" (PDF). Przeglad Geologiczny. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ "Zaire: IRIN Briefing Part II". University Of Pennsylvania. 1997-02-27. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ "International copper price hits record high". China view. 2008-03-08. Retrieved 2008-04-09.
- ^ Base Metals decline Times of India
- ^ $1.30 price
External references
- Copper.org
- R. B. Gordon*, M. Bertram and T. E. Graedel (2006-01-31). "Metal Stocks and Sustainability". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 103 (5). U.S. National Academy of Sciences: 1209–1214. Retrieved 2008-03-23.