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Roy Spencer (meteorologist)

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Roy W. Spencer is a climatologist and a Principal Research Scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville, as well as the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

He is known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society's Special Award. Spencer's research suggests that global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution and suggests that natural, chaotic variations in low cloud cover may account for most observed warming.[1][2]

Education and work

Spencer earned a B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Michigan in 1978 and his M.S. and Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1980 and 1982.[3] Spencer designed an algorithm to detect tropical cyclones and estimate their maximum sustained wind speed using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.[4] The AMSU is a microwave radiometer that can be used to detect temperature at different levels of the atmosphere. Based on gradients in temperature measurements in a given area, it is possible to estimate maximal sustained radial wind speed.[5]

He speaks publicly often on climate, including four appearances on Coast to Coast AM.[6] He is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute.[7] He is on the board of advisors of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.[8]

Climate change research

For many years Spencer, along with John R. Christy, has maintained an atmospheric temperature record derived from satellite microwave sounding unit measurements, commonly called the "UAH" record – see satellite temperature record. This was once quite controversial: From the beginning of the satellite record in late 1978 well into 1998 it showed a net global cooling trend. Ground measurements and instruments carried aloft by balloons showed warming in many of the areas where those measurements were taken.

Part of the discrepancy between the surface and atmospheric trends was resolved over a period of several years as Spencer, Christy, and others identified several factors, including orbital drift and decay, that caused a net cooling bias in the data collected by the satellite instruments. [9] [10] Since the El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event of 1998–99, the data collected by satellite instruments has shown an average global warming trend in the atmosphere. From November 1978 through January 2011, Earth's atmosphere has warmed at an average rate of about 0.14 C per decade, according to the UAHuntsville satellite record.

In August, 2007, Spencer and others published an article in Geophysical Research Letters regarding cloud feedback in the tropics.[11] Current understanding of the climate system predicts that an increase in high-level, heat trapping clouds will accelerate global warming. Spencer's observations in the tropics found a negative feedback (though this was on month-to-month time scales rather than the decadal or longer time scales on which climate change is determined), and a lower climate sensitivity than the current consensus. Spencer and colleagues state that the negative feedback possibly supports Richard Lindzen's Infrared Iris hypothesis of compensating meteorological processes that tend to stabilize climate change.[12]

In a subsequent press release, Spencer said, "To give an idea of how strong this enhanced cooling mechanism is, if it was operating on global warming, it would reduce estimates of future warming by over 75 percent... The big question that no one can answer right now is whether this enhanced cooling mechanism applies to global warming." [13]

In 2008, Spencer and a colleague published a paper in the Journal of Climate which stated that conventional diagnoses of positive cloud feedback are artificially biased positive, because they ignore natural cloud variability.[14] Climate model analyses treat decreasing cloud cover as an evidence of positive feedback of atmosphere to initial CO2 induced warming, while it easily could be the other way around: the real cause of warming could be small naturally caused variations in cloud cover with rising temperatures as a result. Spencer postulates strong negative cloud feedback, contrary to what the current IPCC climate models use. He points out that the IPCC concedes that low clouds are the most uncertain element in climate models, and that a 1% change in low cloud cover could have radiative forcing equal to doubling of CO2. Spencer asserts that small cloud variations connected with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain 75% of global warming in the twentieth century.[15]

Views on global warming

Roy Spencer describes himself as a global warming optimist working to quantify Nature's thermostat.[16] In several articles Spencer has espoused opinions that are skeptical of the scientific opinion on climate change.

In 2006 Spencer criticized Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth saying, "For instance, Mr. Gore claims that the Earth is now warmer than it has been in thousands of years. Yet the latest National Academies of Science (NAS) report on the subject has now admitted that all we really know is that we are warmer now than we were during the last 400 years, which is mostly made up of the 'Little Ice Age.'" [17]

In a New York Post opinion column on February 26, 2007, Spencer wrote:

Contrary to popular accounts, very few scientists in the world – possibly none – have a sufficiently thorough, "big picture" understanding of the climate system to be relied upon for a prediction of the magnitude of global warming. To the public, we all might seem like experts, but the vast majority of us work on only a small portion of the problem.[18]

In an interview with conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh on February 28, 2007, Spencer stated that he doesn't believe "catastrophic manmade global warming" is occurring. He also criticized climate models, saying "The people that have built the climate models that predict global warming believe they have sufficient physics in those models to predict the future. I believe they don't. I believe the climate system, the weather as it is today in the real world shows a stability that they do not yet have in those climate models."[19] Roy Spencer is also included in a film that argues against the theory of man-made global warming called The Great Global Warming Swindle.

He testified before the Waxman committee's examination of political interference with climate science on March 19, 2007.[20][21]

Spencer is a signatory of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation's "An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming".[22]

The declaration states:

"We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception."

Spencer has published two books on climate change: In 2008, Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor,[23] and in 2010, The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists.[24]

Views on intelligent design

Spencer is a proponent of intelligent design as the mechanism for the origin of species.[25] On the subject, Spencer wrote in 2005, "Twenty years ago, as a PhD scientist, I intensely studied the evolution versus intelligent design controversy for about two years. And finally, despite my previous acceptance of evolutionary theory as 'fact,' I came to the realization that intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism. . . . In the scientific community, I am not alone. There are many fine books out there on the subject. Curiously, most of the books are written by scientists who lost faith in evolution as adults, after they learned how to apply the analytical tools they were taught in college."[25] In The Evolution Crisis, a compilation of five scientists who reject evolution, Spencer states: "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world... Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer."[26]

See also

Awards

Publications & Selected Papers

  • Spencer, R.W. (2008). Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor. Encounter Books. ISBN 1594032106.
  • Spencer, R.W. (2010). The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists. Encounter Books. ISBN 1594033730.

Articles by Spencer available online

References

  1. ^ Global Warming: Natural or Manmade? by Roy Spencer
  2. ^ The 2007–2008 Global Cooling Event: Evidence for Clouds as the Cause by Roy Spencer
  3. ^ "Aqua Project Science". NASA. 2008. Retrieved 2008-10-10.
  4. ^ Spencer, R.W., and W.D. Braswell, "Atlantic tropical cyclone monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of maximum sustained wind speeds." Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1518–1532, 2001
  5. ^ Detecting Tropical Cyclones Using AMSU
  6. ^ "Dr. Roy Spencer". Coast to Coast AM. 2008. Retrieved 2008-10-10.
  7. ^ http://www.marshall.org/board.php
  8. ^ Cornwall Alliance Board of Advisors
  9. ^ http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-final-execsum.pdf
  10. ^ Roy Spencer, John Christy, and Phillip Gentry, May 4, 2004, University of Alabama at Huntsville press release, "New climate study finds 'global warming' by subtracting cooling that wasn't there," 2004 UAH press release; archived version: ([1] (accessed Feb. 9, 2011): "Over the past 13 years they have made several corrections to their dataset as different problems have been identified. The satellite sensors, which have been in service since late November 1978, show a long-term lower atmosphere global warming trend of about 0.08 C (0.14 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade in the past 25 years."
  11. ^ R. Spencer et al. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 34, L15707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029698, 2007
  12. ^ Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou (2001). "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 82, No. 3, March 2001, pp 417–432.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  13. ^ Cirrus disappearance: Warming might thin heat-trapping clouds, UA Huntsville press release, 8/9/2007
  14. ^ "Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration", by Roy W. Spencer & William D. Braswell, Journal of Climate, 2008
  15. ^ Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) by Roy Spencer
  16. ^ Roy W. Spencer, PhD. "Global Warming and Nature's Thermostat". WeatherQuestions.com. Retrieved 2008-05-12.
  17. ^ Star Search by Roy Spencer, TCS Daily, 30 Jun 2006
  18. ^ Spencer, Roy W. (2007-02-26). "NOT THAT SIMPLE / GLOBAL WARMING: WHAT WE DON'T KNOW". New York Post. Retrieved 2007-04-07.
  19. ^ Global Warming Update: Facts, Science Smash the Global Warming Myth
  20. ^ a b c d e Spencer, Roy W. (2007-03-19). "STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES" (PDF). House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2007-03-28. Retrieved 2007-03-07.
  21. ^ "Committee Examines Political Interference with Climate Science". House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. 2007-03-19.
  22. ^ Prominent Signers of An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming
  23. ^ Climate Confusion
  24. ^ Earth Day Turns 40, by Roy Spencer
  25. ^ a b Faith-Based Evolution, Roy Spencer, TCS Daily, 08 August 2005
  26. ^ Penfold, Michael (2007). The Evolution Crisis. ISBN 1900742241.
  27. ^ a b c "Aqua Team Member Profile – Roy Spencer". 12/01/2008. Retrieved 04/07/2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  28. ^ Earth Systems Science, NASA
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