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Cyclone Pam

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This article is about the 2015 South Pacific tropical cyclone. For the 1997 storm of the same name, see Cyclone Pam (1997).
Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam
Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Aus scale)
Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam near Vanuatu on March 13
FormedMarch 6, 2015 (March 6, 2015)
DissipatedCurrently active
Highest winds10-minute sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
1-minute sustained: 270 km/h (165 mph)
Lowest pressure896 hPa (mbar); 26.46 inHg
FatalitiesAt least 8
DamageUnknown
Areas affectedFiji, Kiribati, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
Part of the 2014–15 South Pacific cyclone season

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam is currently a very powerful tropical cyclone affecting Vanuatu and nearby islands. Many deaths have been reported, mostly in Vanuatu.

Pam is the second most intense storm of the South Pacific Ocean according to pressure, after Zoe of 2002, and recently had the highest 10-minute sustained wind speed of any South Pacific tropical cyclone. Pam is also the third strongest storm in the Southern Hemisphere in terms of barometric pressure, only after Zoe in 2002 and Gafilo in 2004. In terms of peak ten-minute sustained winds, it is tied with Cyclone Orson and Cyclone Monica as the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On March 6, 2015, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began monitoring a persistent and slowly rotating area of thunderstorms centered roughly 1,140 km (710 mi) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Despite the system's primitive nature at the time, weather forecast models anticipated an intense tropical cyclone over the coming days.[1] At 06:00 Coordinated Universal Time that day, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) designated the storm as Tropical Disturbance 11F.[2] Initially, the disturbance floundered east of the Solomon Islands and slowly strengthened,[3] reaching tropical depression intensity on March 8. The storm's appearance and areal coverage of showers remained stationary until the following day,[4] when the formation of rainbands wrapping about the center of the system prompted the FMS to upgrade the storm's classification to a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone scale, thus assigning it the name Pam.[5] Atmospheric conditions at the time were slightly favorable for continued development as the storm continued to slowly track along the southern periphery of a high-pressure area to its north.[6]

Following the storm's naming, Pam began to curve southwards around midday on March 9. Computer models continued to point towards the possibility of rapid intensification occurring as the cyclone approached Vanuatu.[7] Significant improvement in Pam's organization took place throughout the remainder of the day into March 10.[8] The cyclone's circulation center quickly tightened, with the central dense overcast atop it persisting in strength.[9] At 18:00 UTC on March 10, the FMS upgraded the system to category 3 strength, making it a severe tropical cyclone.[10] Shortly after, microwave imagery revealed a primordial eye-feature developing within Pam;[11] this became apparent on visible light images on March 11.[12] That day, Pam became quasi-stationary east of the Santa Cruz Islands before resuming its prior motion towards the end of March 11.[13][14] Favorable conditions allowed the cyclone to gradually intensify and attain Category 5 status on both the Australian and Saffir–Simpson scales on 12 March. Early on 13 March, the cyclone attained its peak one-minute sustained winds of 270 km/hr (165 mph). Later that day, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed the cyclone as having slightly weakened, with maximum one-minute sustained winds of 260 km/hr (160 mph); however, RSMC Nadi maintained that the cyclone had not changed in strength. Then early on 14 March, the JTWC assessed the cyclone as having further weakened to Category 4 status on the Saffir–Simpson scale, but RSMC Nadi instead assessed the cyclone as at a peak intensity of ten-minute sustained winds of 250 km/hr (155 mph), and a central pressure of 896 hPa. However, by later on 14 March, RSMC Nadi also assessed the storm as weakening to ten-minute sustained winds of 230 km/hr (145 mph) and a central pressure of 915 hPa, still well above the threshold for Category 5 status on the Australian scale.

Preparations

Although not in the direct path of Pam, officials in Fiji warned residents in low-lying of potential flooding from the system's outer rain bands.[15] Emergency shelters for possible evacuations were identified by March 12.[16] Later that day, cruise operators announced that trips to the Yasawa Islands would be canceled due to the storm.[17] Anticipating dangerous conditions from the cyclone, the fifth leg of the Volvo Ocean Race was postponed until at least 01:00 UTC on March 16.[18]

Civil defense officials in New Zealand warned that the remnants of Cyclone Pam could bring unprecedented damage to eastern coastal areas. Swells of 6–8 m (20–26 ft) were forecast with potential for damage exceeding that of Cyclone Bola in 1988.[19]

Vanuatu

Port Vila seafront; March 14, 2015

By March 12, the National Disaster Management Office in Vanuatu activated all emergency operation centers in the country. Officials reported difficulty in contacting outlying islands where there was poor infrastructure. In those areas, they advised residents to identify nearby shelters in case evacuation was necessary. Across the country, residents spent the day on March 12 stocking up on supplies for the storm. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stated volunteers were on standby for assessments in Fiji, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu once the storm passed. Supplies of water and water purification systems were pre-positioned for the countries.[20] Acting director of the Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office, Peter Korisa, warned that should Pam strike the capital of Port Vila it could be worse than Cyclone Uma in 1987 which killed 50 people and caused US$150 million in damage.[21] The BBC reported that eight people are confirmed dead, while the UN agencies suspect that dozens more may have died, too.[22][23]

New Caledonia

A pre-cyclone alert was raised in New Caledonia as a precaution.[21] On March 13, 2015 at noon local time, this was raised to the first level of cyclone alert for the Loyalty Islands and for the Isle of Pines.[24] The second and highest level of cyclone alert is to be raised at 03:00 local time on March 14, 2015 for the islands of Maré and Lifou.[25]

Impact

Early in the cyclone's development, Pam produced heavy rains and gale-force winds over the Solomon Provinces of Malaita, Makira-Ulawa, and Temotu.[21] Rainfall was particularly intense over the Santa Cruz Islands, where a 24 hour total of 495 mm (19.5 in) was observed.[26] Continuous heavy rain prompted the evacuation of 500 students in West Guadalcanal.[27]

In the islands of Vanuatu, at least 8 people are confirmed to have died, with unconfirmed reports of up to 44 casualties in the many villages destroyed in the storm's wake.[28][29][30]

See also

References

  1. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 6, 2015). "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And Southern Pacific Oceans 060600". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 6, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  2. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 6, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 7, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  3. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 7, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 7, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  4. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 8, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 9, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  5. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 9, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 9, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  6. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 9, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 001". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 9, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  7. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 9, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 002". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 10, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  8. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 10, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  9. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 10, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 003". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 10, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  10. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 10, 2015). "Hurricane Warning 020". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  11. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 10, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 005". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  12. ^ Fiji Meteorological Service (March 11, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16". Nadi, Fiji: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  13. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 11, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 007". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  14. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (March 11, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone 17P (Pam) Warning NR 009". Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  15. ^ Felix Chaudhary (March 11, 2015). "Cawaki warns of flooding". Fiji Times. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  16. ^ Serafina Silaitoga (March 12, 2015). "On full alert". Fiji Times. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  17. ^ Felix Chaudhary (March 12, 2015). "Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam: Cruise operators cancel Yasawa trips". Fiji Times. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  18. ^ "Volvo Ocean Race postpones start due to Tropical Cyclone Pam". Scuttlebutt Sailing News. March 11, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  19. ^ "NZ braces for Cyclone Pam". Radio New Zealand. March 12, 2015. Retrieved March 15, 2015.
  20. ^ "Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu activates emergency plans as category five system predicted". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. March 12, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  21. ^ a b c "Vanuatu prepares for worst as Cyclone Pam approaches". Radio New Zealand. March 12, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  22. ^ "Cyclone devastates South Pacific islands of Vanuatu". BBC. March 14, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2015. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |work= (help)
  23. ^ Tropical cyclones in Vanuatu: 1847 to 1994 (PDF) (Report). Vanuatu Meteorological Service. May 19, 1994. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 28, 2024. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
  24. ^ https://securite-civile.nc/communiques-presse/communique-de-pressedscgrdu-13-mars-2015alerte-cyclonique-ndeg1-pam
  25. ^ https://securite-civile.nc/communiques-presse/communique-de-pressedscgrdu-13-mars-2015alerte-cyclonique-ndeg2-pam
  26. ^ Richard Angwin (March 11, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone Pam batters South Pacific islands". Al Jazeera. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  27. ^ "Storm forces mass evacuation of Solomons school". Radio New Zealand. March 12, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  28. ^ "Cyclone 'devastates' South Pacific islands of Vanuatu". BBC News. Retrieved March 14, 2015.
  29. ^ Johnston, Chris (March 14, 2015). "Dozens feared dead in Vanuatu after cyclone Pam leaves trail of destruction". The Guardian. Retrieved March 14, 2015.
  30. ^ "Cyclone Pam: Dozens feared dead in Vanuatu in 'one of worst storms in Pacific history'". The Telegraph. March 14, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2015.
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