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Robert Prechter

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Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (b. 1949) is an American author and stock market analyst, known widely for his financial forecasts using the Elliott wave principle. Prechter has authored or edited 14 books, including Conquer the Crash, a New York Times bestseller.[1] He has also published monthly financial commentary in the Elliott Wave Theorist since 1979, and is the founder of Elliott Wave International and New Classics Library.[2][3] In recent years Prechter has supported the study of socionomics, a theory about the dynamics of human social behavior. [4][5]

Career

Prechter attended Yale University and graduated with a degree in psychology in 1971. His career as an analyst began when he joined Merrill Lynch as a market technician in 1975, where he learned much about the trade from Merrill's Chief Market Strategist Robert Farrell (June 1982).[3][6] There Prechter also learned of the Wave Principle and was deeply intrigued:

So I tracked down R.N. Elliott's original books. They weren't even in the Library of Congress. But I finally dug around in the New York Public Library and found a catalog card listing a copy of them on microfilm and had photocopies made. I was amazed to find that there was a wealth of information that had been lost to Wall Street.[7]

Prechter has also said, "after I decided to make markets a career, I realized that mass psychology is what they're all about." [7]

Prominence

In 1979 Prechter left Merrill Lynch and published the first subscription issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. The 1970s had been very bullish years in the gold market but mostly bearish for stocks, yet his Elliott wave analysis called for a long-term reversal lower in gold (February 1980)[3][8] and a long-term "super bull market underway" in stocks (October 1982).[3][9] Because these forecasts proved mostly correct -- especially for the stock indexes -- Prechter's following grew. His visibility increased further after he won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984, with a then-record 444% return in a monitored options trading account.[10] He was profiled in many financial and business publications, and named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC).[11]

Trading record

In 1998, financial writer Mark Hulbert said this about Prechter's stock picking record:

But there are a select few market-timing newsletters -- just five among all those that I have tracked over the last 15 years -- that have shown that they can at least immunize investors, relatively speaking, from more risk than the performance they forfeit in the process. The Elliott Wave Theorist, for example, has had an annualized return of 12 percent since 1982 -- 3.6 percentage points shy of the Wilshire 5000, but at just about half the risk[12]

After the stock market declines in 2000-2002, financial writer Peter Brimelow discussed Prechter's record as measured by the Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD):

Indeed, because of that high cash component, Prechter has recently been ahead of the Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis over the 23 years that the HFD has been following him.[13]

Criticism

Prechter has seen both highly favorable and extremely critical treatment by the media, such as the Fortune magazine columnist in October 2000 who said Prechter “was lionized for calling the stock run-up that began in 1982 and the crash of 1987. Since then his big-picture forecasts have been laughably terrible..."[14] The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jone Industrial Average.[15]

Books

Among the books Prechter has authored, coauthored, or edited are:

  • Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. John Wiley and Sons. 1978–2001. ISBN 0471988499.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date format (link)
  • R.N. Elliott's Market Letters. New Classics Library. 1993–1997. ISBN 0932750206.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date format (link)
  • Complete Elliott Wave Writings of A. Hamilton Bolton. New Classics Library. 1994. ISBN 0932750222.
  • The Elliott Wave Writings of A.J. Frost and Richard Russell. Bookworld Services. 1997. ISBN 0932750478.
  • At the Crest of the Tidal Wave. John Wiley and Sons. 1997. ISBN 0471979546.
  • The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics. New Classics Library. 1999. ISBN 0932750494.
  • Market Analysis for the New Millennium. New Classics Library. 2002. ISBN 0932750524.
  • Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. John Wiley and Sons. 2002. ISBN 0470870907.
  • Beautiful Pictures. New Classics Library. 2003. ISBN 0932750605.
  • View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle. New Classics Library. 2003. ISBN 0932750559.
  • Pioneering Studies in Socionomics. New Classics Library. 2003. ISBN 0932750567.
  • Prechter's Perspective. New Classics Library. 1996–2004. ISBN 932750613.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date format (link)
  • R.N. Elliott's Master Works. New Classics Library. 2005. ISBN 0932750761.
  • How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle. New Classics Library. 2006. ISBN 093275077X.

Notes

  1. ^ Best Sellers List (11 August 2002). "Book Review". New York Times: p. 24. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help)
  2. ^ Levy, Adam (February 2003). "The Ultimate Bear". Bloomberg Markets: p. 69. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help)
  3. ^ a b c d Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (various dates). "Elliott Wave Theorist". Elliott Wave International. Gainesville, Georgia. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (1999). The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics. Gainesville, Georgia: New Classics Library.
  5. ^ Penn, David (June 2003). "Social Mood and the Markets". Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities: p. 50. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); External link in |journal= (help)
  6. ^ McCaffrey Brecht, Kira (July 2003). "Trader's Hall of Fame Award - Robert Prechter - An Interview with the Elliott Wave Guru". Stocks, Futures & Options Magazine: p. 42. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); External link in |journal= (help)
  7. ^ a b Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (1996/2004). Prechter's Perspective. Gainesville, Georgia: New Classics Library. pp. p. 6. {{cite book}}: |pages= has extra text (help); Check date values in: |year= (help)
  8. ^ Lazarovic, Karen (30 April 1985). "Elliott-wave technician sees 2d-half blastoff". New York Post: p. 36. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help)
  9. ^ Shaw, Russell (9 Oct. 1987). "Prechter flees Wall St. for Georgia hills". USA Today: p. B1. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); Check date values in: |date= (help); External link in |journal= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  10. ^ Myerson, Allen R. (October, 1985). "Robert Prechter: From Lake Lanier, He Can See Wall Street Clearly". Georgia Trend: p. 26. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); Check date values in: |date= (help); External link in |journal= (help)
  11. ^ Hendrick, Bill (July 15, 1990). "Unbelievers Don't Worry Prechter". Atlanta Journal Constitution: p. H-4. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help)
  12. ^ Hulbert, Mark (4 October 1998). "Is the Time Right for Market Timing?". New York Times: p. C-7. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help)
  13. ^ Brimelow, Peter. "Is Prechter's bearishness permanent?". Retrieved 2006-12-4. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  14. ^ Geoffrey Colvin (16 October 2000). "The Wheelers, the Wavers, and the Star-Struck". [Fortune (magazine): p. 84. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); Text "Fortune]]" ignored (help)
  15. ^ William Power (19 August 1993). "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late". The Wall Street Journal.

References

Elliott Wave Theorist (Robert R. Prechter, Jr., 1979-2006). Elliott Wave International, Gainesville, GA.

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