2012 Pacific hurricane season

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2012 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 14, 2012
Last system dissipatedSeason still active
Strongest storm
NameEmilia
 • Maximum winds140 mph (220 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions6
Total storms6
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		3
Total fatalities2 direct, 1 indirect
Total damageUnknown
Related article
Pacific hurricane seasons
2010, 2011, 2012, Post-2012

The 2012 Pacific hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on May 15, 2012 in the Eastern Pacific, although Tropical Storm Aletta developed a day prior. The season began on June 1, 2012 in the Central Pacific, and the entire season will end on November 30, 2012. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1971–2006) 15.3 8.8 4.2
Record high activity 28 16 (tie) 10
Record low activity 8 (tie) 3 0 (tie)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
NOAA May 24, 2012 12-18 5-9 2-5
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 6 5 3

On May 24, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 30% chance of a below-normal season, a 50% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of an above-normal season. The climatologists expected 12–18 named storms, with 5–9 becoming hurricanes, and 2–5 becoming major hurricanes. The below-normal activity forecast was because of increased wind shear and a high expectation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions throughout the peak in the later months of summer, together with lingering La Niña conditions at the beginning of the season, even though there had already been two named systems – one tropical storm and one major hurricane – in the month of May.

Seasonal summary

So far, the season has been relatively active, with one major hurricane formed in May, marking the third time that this has happened However, only one storm, Hurricane Carlotta, formed in June due to unfavorable weather conditions. However, hurricanes Daniel and Emilia both attained major hurricane status early in the month of July Hurricane Fabio formed on July 7, and thus means that the season is way ahead of schedule, as the sixth storm does not usually form until mid-August.

Storms

Tropical Storm Aletta

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 14 – May 19
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

During the early morning hours of May 12, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor an area of disturbed weather that had developed roughly 550 mi (890 km) to the south-southwest of Acapuclo.[1] Moving towards the west-northwest, the system was assessed with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours during the afternoon hours of the following day as shower and thunderstorm activity had become better defined.[2] The disturbance continued to organize, and by early on May 14, it was deemed sufficiently well organized to be declared as Tropical Depression One-E, a day before the official start of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season.[3] Embedded within a favorable environment for further intensification, the tropical depression intensified into Tropical Storm Aletta at 0000 UTC May 15.[4] Twelve hours later the tropical storm attained its peak intensity with winds of 50 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 1000 millibars before weakening ensued as Aletta entered an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and an increasingly stable air mass. Late on May 16, Aletta was downgraded to a tropical depression,[5] and the system was declared post-tropical two days later after it was unable to sustain deep thunderstorm activity atop the low-level center for at least twelve hours.[6] The remnants of the storm completely dissipated on May 21.

Hurricane Bud

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 20 – May 26
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
960 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Bud (2012)

On May 12, a low pressure system formed just south of eastern Panama. The storm slowly organized as it moved westwards. On May 15, the storm acquired a burst of convection, and the NHC began to monitor the system.[7] As the storm turned west-northwestwards, it organized significantly. On May 17, wind shear began to erode the storm's convection, weakening the system and causing it to stall, although the system continued to persist. On May 20, the storm strengthened rapidly, as it began moving again, and that night the NHC reported that the storm had strengthened into Tropical Depression Two-E.[8] Then, as it slightly accelerated to the west, the storm continued to organize, eventually intensifying into Tropical Storm Bud on May 22, with 40 mph sustained winds. Bud remained at this intensity for one day before strengthening, starting early on May 23, and reached winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) during the afternoon. By the next morning (May 24), Bud continued its rapid intensification, reaching sustained winds of 85 mph, and then 110 mph by the afternoon, as the system turned northward. Later on the same day, Bud turned to the northeast, and began to approach the coast of Western Mexico. Late on May 24, Bud intensified further into a Category 3 major hurricane, and obtained a peak intensity of 115 mph winds, with a minimum central low pressure of 960 mbars.[9] Hurricane Bud was able to maintain Category 3 intensity for the next several hours, even its outer rainbands began moving onshore in Western Mexico. Very early on May 25, Hurricane Bud weakened down to a strong Category 2 hurricane.[10] Hurricane Bud rapidly began to weaken, as it slowly moved onshore. Bud quickly lost most of its convection, which was sheared mainly to the north. During the mid-afternoon of May 25, Bud weakened down to a strong tropical storm, as it began making landfall on Western Mexico. Further weakening ensued over the next 24 hours, and Bud degenerated into a remnant low early on May 26.

Hurricane Carlotta

Main article: Hurricane Carlotta (2012)
Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 13 – June 16
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
976 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave in the Eastern Pacific quickly became organized on June 13 and became Tropical Depression Three-E that evening. The National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a Tropical Storm and named it "Carlotta" the next day. Carlotta passed over very favorable environmental conditions that allowed further intensification into a Category 2 hurricane. On June 15, Carlotta weakened back into a Category 1 and then made landfall near Puerto Escondido, Mexico with maximum winds of 90 mph. After making its landfall, Carlotta quickly weakened to a tropical depression because of the mountainous terrain along the coastline. Carlotta continued to move westward, and soon dissipated to a remnant low, late on June 16. Its remnants later merged with another trough of low pressure.

Upon formation, hurricane watches were issued for the southern coastline of Mexico. This was later upgraded to a warning when Carlotta became a hurricane. The storm made landfall in southern Mexico, bringing with it heavy rains and gusty winds which caused flash floods and numerous landslides along the area, primarily the state of Oaxaca. A total of three people were killed by Carlotta, all of them in Oaxaca. Due to the severity of the situation in Oaxaca the governor requested for a state of emergency to be declared to his state, which it did in order to help people affected by the hurricane.

Hurricane Daniel

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 4 – July 11
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
961 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 2, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area of disturbed weather about 475 mi (764 km) south-southeast of Acapulco. Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance continued to become increasingly better organized, and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was issued on the system early on July 3. By early on July 4, the system had gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Four-E. On July 5, Four-E became Tropical Storm Daniel. The cyclone then slowly intensified, and after having been situated over a favorable environment for two days, it intensified into a hurricane. Overnight July 7 to July 8, Daniel rapidly intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Just hours later, Daniel reached its peak intensity of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 961 millibars, a Category 3 hurricane, although the eye was already over cooler waters. However, Daniel only maintained Category 3 status briefly, and six hours later, the eye became less well-defined and the storm weakened back to a Category 2 hurricane. The system maintained this intensity for a while, but by July 9, the hurricane weakened further to a Category 1. Early on July 10, Daniel continued to weaken, eventually becoming a small, shallow tropical storm over a low ocean heat content. The storm then crossed 140°W into the central Pacific as a heavily sheared tropical storm with little convection. On July 11, Daniel's low level circulation center started to became exposed under moderate vertical wind shear. It further weakened into a tropical depression later that day and then degenerated into a remnant low east-southeast of Hawaii, as it became a convectionless vortex. The remnants persisted for almost a week after weakening below tropical depression intensity and eventually brushed Hawaii with little to no effects. Late on July 16, the remnant low of Daniel crossed the International Date Line. On July 18, the remnants of Daniel finally dissipated completely.

Hurricane Emilia

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 7 – July 15
Peak intensity140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min);
945 mbar (hPa)

A small but well-defined area of disturbed weather became organized enough to be declared as Tropical Depression Five-E on July 7, about 500 mi (800 km) south-southwest of Acapulco. Later the same day the depression gained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical storm, receiving the name "Emilia", the fifth named storm of the season. Emilia reached hurricane status early on July 9 and began to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane as the eastern outflow channel from Daniel that had previously inhibited development weakened and allowed Emilia to ventilate its core in all directions. Early on July 10, Emilia reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 945 mbar. After its peak, Emilia began to fluctuate between a strong Category 2 hurricane and a weak Category 3 hurricane. Although the storm was over cool waters, it was able to maintain this intensity because of its annular structure. However, late on July 12, the eye disappeared from satellite imagery and the storm weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early the next morning, it was observed that Emilia passed just north of Daniel's path days earlier, which was a hostile environment. In response to this, the storm dropped to below hurricane status. For a brief period while at tropical storm strength, Emilia passed over a tongue of warmer Sea Surface Temperatures, causing its convection to blossom slightly and weakening to temporarily halt. However, Emilia quickly encountered colder waters and drier air, once again, and weakened to a minimal tropical storm, as a result. Early on July 15, the system transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, and became an exposed, convectionless vortex. On July 17, the remnant low of Emilia passed south of Hawaii, with little effects.

Hurricane Fabio

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 12 – July 18
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
972 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 12, a well-defined area of low pressure south of Mexico gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Six-E. Just hours after formation, the sustained winds exceeded 38 miles per hour, and organization became sufficient enough for the depression to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio, the sixth named storm of the season. During the afternoon hours of July 13, Fabio intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Later that night, Fabio continued to intensify, and became a strong Category 1 with 90 mph sustained winds. The storm maintained this intensity for a while, before rapidly and unexpectedly intensifying into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane during the afternoon hours of July 14, as it was being noticed that the cyclone's eye became better-defined, the cloud tops cooled and the system became more symmetric. However, less than 24 hours after becoming a Category 2, the storm began ingesting drier air and was situated over cooler waters, causing it to progressively weaken to below hurricane strength. By July 17, the system's center was devoid of any convection and had weakened down to tropical depression status off the coast of central Baja California.

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Carlotta (2012)Hurricane Bud (2012)Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 18.0 Emilia 4 7.15 Bud
2 14.7
(0.123) 		Daniel 5 3.51 Carlotta
3 10.1 Fabio 6 1.18 Aletta
Total: 54.7 (0.123)

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include subtropical storms. Later the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

The figures in parentheses are for storms in the Central Pacific basin west of 140°W; those not in parentheses are for the Eastern Pacific basin.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2013. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. This is the same list used in the 2006 season.

  • Aletta
  • Bud
  • Carlotta
  • Daniel
  • Emilia
  • Fabio
  • Gilma (unused)
  • Hector (unused)
  • Ileana (unused)
  • John (unused)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

The Central Pacific season originates around the islands of Hawaii. There are several names that are in four lists; the next four names to be used are shown below.

  • Pewa (unused)
  • Unala (unused)
  • Wali (unused)
  • Ana (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms in the 2012 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their durations, peak intensities, names, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2012 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2012 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Aletta May 14 – May 19 Tropical storm 45 (75) 1003 None None None
Bud May 20 – May 26 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 960 Western Mexico Minimal None
Carlotta June 13 – June 16 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 976 Southern Mexico (Oaxaca) Unknown 2 (1)
Daniel July 4 – July 11 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 961 None None None
Emilia July 7 – July 15 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 945 None None None
Fabio July 12 – July 18 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 972 None None None
Season aggregates
6 systems May 14 – Currently active    140 mph (220 km/h) 945 Unknown 2 (1)  

See also

References

  1. ^ Jack Beven (May 12, 2012). "Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  2. ^ Daniel Brown (May 13, 2012). "Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  3. ^ Todd Kimberlain (May 14, 2012). "Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  4. ^ Richard Pasch (May 14, 2012). "Tropical Storm Aletta Public Advisory Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  5. ^ Lixion Avila (May 17, 2012). "Tropical Depression Aletta Public Advisory Number 12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  6. ^ John Cangialosi (May 19, 2012). "Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Public Advisory Number 21". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 18, 2012.
  7. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205151740/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205151740
  8. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205210237/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205210237
  9. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250534/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250534
  10. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250836/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250836

External links

Template:2010-2019 Pacific hurricane seasons

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